The Real Science of Sport Podcast

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Show notes

A bonus hype show ahead of Sunday's World Cup round of 16 between Mexico and England, where altitude has become the story everyone is talking about. Sparked by Thomas Tuchel's lament over a FIFA rule and the team's potential "smash and grab" altitude adaptation theory, Ross explains why the idea of sneaking in and out before altitude bites has no supporting evidence at all. You only ever get better from the moment you arrive, and so FIFA compelling England to travel earlier is quietly helping them!

From there, Ross unpacks the physiology: lower air pressure, less oxygen reaching the muscles, a compromised VO2 max ceiling, and everything performed at a higher relative intensity. Drawing on repeated-sprint studies and FIFA match data from Mexico's altitude venues, he builds and tests a hypothesis, that visiting teams run less at high speed and make fewer sprints, with a dose-dependent decline as altitude rises. The small, admittedly limited study illustrates how Mexico's altitude adapted advantage might manifest in sprint and high speed running differences from the start, getting progressively larger. Ross closes on what England can realistically do tactically to respect the physiology.

Links

The Guardian article on England's foiled smash-and-grab paradigm, fortunately for them!
This is the study I've seen cited in support of the late-arrival theory, even though its conclusion actually refutes the advantage!
A study showing that you only get better, over 6h, 17h and then 48h, so get in as soon as you can
Another one, this time over longer time frames, looking at how we improve with more time at altitude
Brosnan study on repeat sprint interactions with altitude and rest period

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Show notes

This week's Spotlight checks in on our global durability study, takes another lap of the World Cup, visits the Diamond League in Paris, previews the Tour de France and its heat challenge, and ends with saltwater crocodiles.

In this show:

Our listener durability study is underway (members only!), and Ross and Gareth compare notes after completing the first session, a brutal five minute TT plus 20 minute FTP protocol. Ross explains why you have to drain the anaerobic battery before the 20 minute test, why pacing a time trial on your own is harder than you think, and why the biggest limitation in the study might not be physiology
The World Cup is into the knockout rounds and listener Robert Ridley has done the maths on whether teams that go to extra time are at a disadvantage in the next game. The answer might be yes, about 1.5x more likely to lose if they play a team who hadn't had ET the game before, but we discover the confounding factor that complicates that finding
A proposal resurfaced on Discourse and social media this week for a structural fix to extra time football, one that involves running the penalty shootout before the 30 minutes rather than after it. Ross explains where the idea came from, what the data says about goals in extra time, and why football fans on social media were not especially receptive
Moving onto athletics, Audrey Werro ran 1:53.80 in Paris, another personal best that edges her closer to the oldest WR in the sport, but we explain why the record attempt fell short, and what her split data tells you about the mindset that Werro and Hodgkinson need to bring to their races to really threaten the WR. Femke Bol is now in the picture too, and her progression curve is worth paying close attention to
Marco Arop ran 1:41.84 in the men's 800 and declared he is going for Rudisha's world record. We discuss whether the men's record might actually fall before the women's
The Tour de France starts this weekend in temperatures forecast to exceed 40 degrees by the end of the first week. We discuss a study documenting rising temperatures at the race over the decades, why the UCI's heat protocols are again under scrutiny, and what the Tour's own route designer says about how he is now choosing routes specifically for shade
UCI president Lappartient has floated the idea of reducing Tour de France team sizes from eight to six riders and introducing budget caps. The internet reacted badly, including a memorable contribution from Johan Bruyneel. We make the case that smaller teams might actually create more dynamic racing and more opportunities for smaller squads, with the acceptance that there are economic factors in play. But we wonder, why criticism is often so loud, but so empty?
And finally, an IOC official has just discovered that the rowing venue for Brisbane 2032 is in a river that is also home to saltwater crocodiles. His suggested solution was a fence. We hope the rowers don't catch a croc...
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From muscle growth to a treatment for Alzheimers, creatine has been touted as the 'King of Supplements'. But what does the science say about one of the most researched products in sport? Enter Dr Eric S. Rawson, Chair and Professor of Health, Nutrition, and Exercise Science at Messiah University in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, who has spent two decades studying the effects of creatine on the brain and muscle. In this in-depth interview, Rawson breaks down the long history of creatine research, how it works, who it works best for, and the latest research into its cognitive benefits. Rawson has been an active member of the American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) since 1996, has served on the ACSM Board of Trustees and is a Fellow of the ACSM (FACSM). Dr Rawson has delivered more than 180 professional presentations, is co-editor of the text Nutrition for Elite Athletes, co-author of Nutrition for Health Fitness and Sport, and has authored/co-authored numerous articles and book chapters. His research has been funded by the National Institutes of Health and various foundations.

SHOW NOTES

Rawson was involved in the IOC consensus papers on supplementation. Here is the latest of these, including a section on creatine

A systematic review and meta-analysis on creatine use, combined with resistance training

A review on safety concerns over creatine

The 13500 person review on the side effects of creatine use with long-term supplementation

Widely hailed as the original creatine paper, by Harris et al, this showed that supplementation with creatine could increase muscle stores significantly

Studies showing that muscular performance was enhanced by creatine supplementation

A recent scoping review explores the available evidence on the possible protective effect of creatine in concussion management

Disclosures from Dr Eric Rawson:
• Been taking creatine since 1992
• Have published/presented a fair bit about creatine and other supplements. You can see Eric’s research profile here
• Been fortunate to receive funding from NIH, various foundations, universities, and companies
• Current research funding: none
• Have received speaking honoraria for lectures that included creatine
• On SAB of Alzchem (studied creatine supplements for 20+ years first).

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British football journalist Ben Lyttleton literally wrote the book on football penalties. As the author of 'Twelve Yards: The Art and Psychology of the Perfect Penalty' and 'Edge: What Business Can Learn From Football', Lyttleton is arguably the world's leading authority on the subject. His encyclopedia-like and passionate knowledge of both the game of football and the controversial penalty, make this one of the most entertaining podcasts we have done yet. This podcast was first published in August, 2022, but is sure to be relevant to the final weeks of this year's edition as we head into the knockout stages.

SHOW NOTES:

The Twitter handle of our guest Ben Lyttleton: @benlyt, or https://twitter.com/benlyt

Ben’s website, Twelve Yards: https://twelveyards.substack.com/

Article on where to aim, high or low: https://twelveyards.substack.com/p/high-or-low-where-to-aim

Fascinating article with video on Neymar’s now illegal stop-start method, and his adjustments: https://twelveyards.substack.com/p/what-neymar-did-next

The curse of the superstar - why stars miss more penalties: https://twelveyards.substack.com/p/mbappe-culture-and-the-superstar

The study on English players’ failure in shootouts that kicked off this interview: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19058088/

Emotional contagion paper, and how player celebrations affect shootout results: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20544488/

The most famous penalty miss ever? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8WtxgFvvj0

The original panenka: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxXWIZULgyw
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This week's Spotlight focuses on the doping case of Marketa Vondrousova's four year ban for refusing to provide a sample during an out of competition test in 2025. We also return to the USA for some Football World Cup insights, cover some injury science with implications for Keely Hodgkinson's season, and issue a call to arms for members ahead of our durability experiment. Here's what's on the show today:

A leg-breaking tackle in the Canada versus Qatar game sparked a debate among our listeners on Discourse that cuts to the heart of how sport punishes dangerous play. Should the sanction reflect what the player did, or what happened as a result? Ross draws on his rugby background to explain why outcome-based punishment is more common and more defensible than it first appears, and why intent is almost impossible to use as a standard
Travel demands at the World Cup are discussed by a listener in this article - we ask whether this could be decisive to the outcome, which takes us on a journey into travel load and its implications for performance
The momentum graphics appearing on screen during World Cup broadcasts continue to prompt discussion among our listeners. We explore how they actually work, why they might be interesting to fans but are almost certainly meaningless to coaches, and what question you would need to answer before you could trust them at all?
Our main feature is former Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova, now banned for four years for refusing a doping test. We explain why the anti-doping system has to treat a refusal as the equivalent of a positive test, why her own social media post on the night made things worse for her, and why comparing her ban to the Sinner and Swiatek cases misses the point entirely
Keely Hodgkinson withdrew from the 400 metres at the UK Athletics Championships in tears after experiencing "hamstring tightness" before the race. We explore why, even if this turns out to be nothing, the pattern of recurring hamstring tightness is worth paying close attention to, and shares the sobering statistics on hamstring re-injury rates and risk factors that make this more than just a precautionary withdrawal
World Rugby has permanently approved a lower tackle height for community rugby, but with a catch: different unions can choose between the waist and the sternum as their legal limit. We discuss why that flexibility exists, what it means in practice, and what would have to be agreed before any change could come to the elite game
A cyclist suffered a concussion during the Tour de Suisse and continued racing for several more stages. Gareth's initial reaction is that it's another policy failure by the UCI, but we discuss it and discover a number of scenarios that would explain how it happened without any fault from the UCI
And finally, a call to action for members. Our Applied show this Friday will cover durability, and we are turning it into a live global experiment. Over the coming weeks we will be asking supporters to complete a set of time trials on the bike, and we will use that data to build your power duration curve, work out your W prime, and calculate your durability index. All the details will be on Discourse and Discord for members

Oh, and why is Messi so comparatively poor at penalties? Our previous guest Ben Lyttleton shares a piece he wrote on why the best ever is average from the spot!
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