Poll Hard with A Vengeance: Politics trends in 2024... and 2025
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Naomi is joined by a Quiet Riot regular, More in Common's Luke Tryl, to discuss polling trends of 2024, what pollsters got right, what they got wrong, the horseshoe theory, the differences between online and telephone polls, why blending focus groups with polling helps improve predictions and what are the indications for next year. Fill yer boots, as they say.
PLUS the insight you have all been waiting for: what is the most popular Xmas movie respectively for Tory, Labour and Reform voters? Spoiler – The Muppet Christmas Carol is notable by its absence.
"Polling should always be an art-informed science."
"The volatility of voters is unprecedented."
"No one is immune from radicalisation."
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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33:29
Sunday School: The Brexit damage continues
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Naomi and Alex look at yet another two horrible consequences of Brexit - the grift that keeps on taking - in the rather esoteric GPSR that seems to have caught both government and business unaware, as well as the labour shortages that may scupper gov't plans to build 1.5m homes.
Plus, Laura Kuenssberg gets an award and Steven Bartlett explains his views on medicine. Have we sacrificed accuracy in the service of balance?
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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40:41
The Fall of Assad: Syria Special with Arthur Snell
Alex Andreou talks to former diplomat and host of the Behind The Lines podcast, Arthur Snell, to try and construct some order out of the recent chaos in Syria. Who are the good guys? What does this mean for Israel? How exposed is Iran? Is it an opportunity for the Kurds to carve out a state? What is Türkiye's agenda? How does this impact Russia and Putin in both practical and reputational terms? What is next for Assad?
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“Who can rebuild a country, after a devastating civil war, while also rebuilding its society? That expertise might not exist. But it seems that, if people feel that they have ownership and that they’re not being manipulated by outside forces, there’s a higher chance of this thing going better.”
“If you look at how HTS ruled in Idlib - which became a considerable mini-state, because a lot of Syrians were displaced there, so it ended up with 4.5m people living there - it was a dictatorship, but not in the business of chemical weapons or cleansing, and more recently they have allowed other minorities to practice their faith and have a measure of rights.”
“I think we have to accept that the different bits of Syria that are under different groups’ control, are very unlikely to want now suddenly to be under the control of Damascus again - particularly the Kurds who have a pretty organised setup in the Northeast. So, one would hope that the pragmatism we’ve seen so far from HTS and Julani, that has seen him go on this journey from full-blooded islamist to something a bit more open-minded, might extend to saying: Syria doesn’t work very well as a centralised state and actually you need a measure of federalism and particularism.”
“What happens when people go back home and someone else is living in their house? What happens to teenagers of fourteen and fifteen years of age who have never been to Syria? They were born in refugee camps and that is all they know. How do all those returning integrate back ‘home’?”
"It is a reminder that Russia doesn't always win. It's an important psychological point for all those who, rightly, fear Russian encroachment, that Russia doesn't always get its way and can be overextended, like everyone else."
BEHIND THE LINES PODCAST
The latest episode of Arthur's podcast is here.
Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod and on Bluesky. Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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31:40
Episode 30: Mo Money Mo Problems
Alex Andreou, Naomi Smith and special guest investigative journalist Peter Geoghegan discuss the huge amounts of money that is currently flowing into our politics, the ways in which it is corrupting our democracy, and what we can do about it. And in Part II, the very narrow path left to the Labour government, because of a lack of money. Plus 'Wokey Dokey' and 'Grin and Share It'.
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"In 2023 two-thirds of all the money raised in British politics came from 19 people, who all gave over a million… Reform are continuing this trend and going even further. Candy is talking about raising £40m in total. These are huge sums in the context of British politics.”
“They get incredible bang for their buck these [Tufton Street] think tanks. According to the IEA’s accounts last year, they got over 4,500 media hits the previous year. Which is unbelievable - they’re on radio, TV, or print something like twelve times a day.”
“People don’t like the influence money has on our politics. And this is, I think, something that Labour haven’t fully grasped. People don’t think of ‘Tory Sleaze’. They just think of sleaze.”
GRIN AND SHARE IT
Piece on teaching a very old dog new tricks, is here.
CALLS TO ACTION LINKS:
Peter's substack Democracy for Sale.
Answer the short survey on donations here.
Best for Britain's donation tree drive.
Government consultation on Right to Buy.
This is the cynical BBC article about folders. You can complain about the BBC's coverage here.
Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod and on Bluesky. Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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1:07:57
Sunday School: All I Want for Christmas Is EU
Naomi and Alex disseminate Starmer's big "this is not a reset" speech. Naomi talks about the importance of a better EU deal and a new initiative for getting there, with Labour MP Andrew Lewin. Finally, Melania is flogging $90 ornaments and Donald has a new fragrance out for Christmas - which really gives new meaning to eau de toilet.
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“I wonder whether the civil service got into the habit of resisting ideas from gov’t, because of the extraordinary churn. If you’re in the housing bit, and you’ve had 18 ministers, you learn to play for time, because you think ‘meh, they’ll be a different guy with a different plan in six weeks’. Maybe what we’re seeing is that muscle memory of those last 14 years.”
“I desperately want Labour to turn things around. They have to. The stakes are too high. I want to see the xenophobic, toxic, English nationalism of Farage and his cabal defeated and roundly. I don’t want Trumpism in Britain.”
Lewin: “This parliament will be defined by our success, or not, in growing the economy and raising living standards. It is very clear to me that we, as a Labour gov’t, have to look at every lever we can pull, to deliver on that mission of growing the economy, including significantly improving our relationship with the EU.”
Lewin: “I don’t think many people consider themselves ‘leavers’ or ‘remainers’ any more. They look at an economy that’s been flatlining for a decade and want to look at every practical step to get things growing and moving again.”
CALL TO ACTION
Write to your MP, to ask them to prioritise a closer relationship to the EU, using this tool.
Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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