IFS Zooms In: The Economy

In a few weeks, voters in Wales will choose the next Welsh Government in what could be a historic election. With Labour’s long dominance under pressure, this episode examines the fiscal backdrop to the campaign and the difficult choices facing whoever takes power.

Helen is joined by Joe Rossiter, Co-Director of the Institute of Welsh Affairs, and IFS economist David Phillips, to discuss how Wales is funded, how the block grant from Westminster has changed over time, and how devolved tax powers have — and have not — been used. They assess the state of Welsh public services, ask whether Wales should have more powers over tax, spending and borrowing, and explore the constraints facing the next Senedd.

They also look at what the parties are promising, where the main dividing lines lie, and why many of the biggest trade-offs are still not being clearly spelled out.

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Scotland receives significantly more funding per person for devolved public services than England, helping to pay for policies like free university tuition and smaller school class sizes. But despite that advantage, performance in parts of health and education remains under pressure, and Scotland’s fiscal outlook is becoming tighter.

In this episode, Helen is joined by Mairi Spowage of the Fraser of Allander Institute and IFS Associate Director David Phillips to unpack the big economic and fiscal questions hanging over the Scottish Parliament election. They explain what powers are devolved, where Scotland’s money comes from, how tax and benefit choices have made the system more progressive, and why the next Scottish Government will face difficult trade-offs.

They also discuss Scotland’s public service performance after Covid, the risks created by recent budgeting habits, and the issues politicians may prefer not to talk about as manifesto season begins.

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The state pension age is rising. It is currently 66, and by 2028 it will reach 67. But what does that actually mean for the people approaching retirement, and does it really mean everyone will have to work longer?

In this episode, Helen is joined by Jonathan Cribb and Heidi Karjalainen to examine one of the biggest questions facing the pensions system: how high should the state pension age be? They discuss why it has been rising, what the state pension is designed to do, and how changes to the pension age affect work, retirement and government spending.

They also look at who is able to keep working into their late 60s, who is not, and whether a single state pension age makes sense for everyone. Along the way, they explore how the UK compares with other countries, what happens to people who cannot work up to pension age, and whether the state pension system is financially sustainable in the long run.

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For decades, pensioners were one of the poorest groups in Britain. That is no longer true. Today, the average pensioner is at least as well off as the average working-age person, and in wealth terms many are far better off.

In this episode, Helen Miller is joined by Jonathan Cribb and Heidi Karjalainen to examine what the data really say about pensioner incomes, wealth and living standards. Where does pensioners’ money come from? How much is driven by the state pension, private pensions and housing wealth? Which pensioners are still struggling? And how do today’s retirees compare both with their parents’ generation and with younger people who are still working?

They also look ahead to the future: will younger generations enjoy the same living standards in retirement, or are higher house prices, lower homeownership and the decline of defined benefit pensions changing the picture? This episode sets out the big story of how pensioners’ finances have changed, and what it means for the future.

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Helen Miller is joined by IFS colleagues Ben Zaranko and Bee Boileau to discuss the Spring Forecast. The headline numbers haven’t moved much since the autumn, but that stability may not last. With conflict in the Middle East pushing up oil and gas prices, the UK faces a potential negative shock: higher inflation, pressure on interest rates, and a tougher outlook for households, businesses and the public finances.

We discuss what higher energy prices could mean for government policy (from fuel duty to targeted support), why calls to raise defence spending are growing, and the scale of the trade-offs involved. We also look at three key forecast uncertainties: unemployment, migration, and volatile capital gains tax receipts. Finally, we ask how realistic tight future spending plans look ahead of the next Spending Review.

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Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts
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