IFS Zooms In: The Economy

What should we expect from the upcoming Budget? With energy prices rising, pressure on public services and government borrowing already high, the Chancellor faces some difficult choices.

Recorded live at the British Library as part of the Economic and Social Research Council's (ESRC) Festival of Social Science, Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Max Warner and Stuart Adam to discuss what might be announced at the October Budget.

They explore how the government could support households facing higher energy bills, whether businesses might receive further help, and how any new measures could be funded. Could the Chancellor borrow more, raise taxes on banks and landlords, or make bigger changes to the tax and benefit system?

They also discuss the pressures facing public services, the limits imposed by the government's tax pledges, and the measures they'd most like the Chancellor to avoid.

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The economic outlook has worsened since the spring. Inflation is expected to be higher for longer, borrowing costs have risen, and the conflict in the Middle East has added fresh uncertainty for households, businesses and the public finances.

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, we examine what this means for the Chancellor’s first Budget. While the Office for Budget Responsibility may still forecast that the fiscal rules will be met, the underlying spending plans look increasingly difficult to deliver.

With departmental budgets set in cash terms, higher inflation erodes their real value. Combined with pressure to increase defence spending and protect the NHS, this could leave other public services facing deep cuts - or require the Chancellor to make difficult choices on tax, benefits or borrowing.

IFS researchers João Sousa and Bee Boileau explain why “headroom” against the fiscal rules is only part of the story, why credible spending plans matter, and what the Chancellor needs to set out ahead of next year’s Spending Review.

This episode draws on new IFS research published as part of the 2026 Green Budget. The 2026 edition of the IFS Green Budget is funded by the Nuffield Foundation, Barclays and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through the Centre for Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy (CPP).

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Renewable energy is at the centre of the debate about Britain's high electricity prices. Some argue that wind and solar power are driving up costs, requiring expensive subsidies, backup generation and upgrades to the electricity grid. Others point to the falling cost of renewable technologies and argue that expanding them is the best way to bring down bills. So who's right?

In this episode, Helen Miller is joined by IFS researcher Peter Levell and Stephen Jarvis, Assistant Professor of Environmental Economics at the London School of Economics, to explore the economics of renewable energy.

They explain why gas often determines the price of electricity, even as Britain generates more power from wind and solar, and examine how investment in renewables has affected electricity costs over the past decade. They also discuss whether the government should slow down its plans to decarbonise electricity, how falling technology and battery costs could change the picture, and what growing demand from data centres might mean for Britain's energy system.

This episode draws on new IFS research published as part of the 2026 Green Budget. The 2026 edition of the IFS Green Budget is funded by the Nuffield Foundation, Barclays and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through the Centre for Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy (CPP).
Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts
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The government has announced a major change to the state pension triple lock. The new system will continue to protect pensions against inflation and guarantee increases of at least 2.5%, but changes how increases in earnings feed through into the state pension over time.

So how will the new triple lock actually work? Why did the existing system create a “ratchet effect” in pension spending? How does the new approach address that problem, and what role does the 2.5% guarantee still play?

Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Jonathan Cribb and Heidi Karjalainen to explain what is changing, what it could mean for pensioners and the public finances, and the questions the reform leaves unresolved.

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The number of people receiving disability benefits has risen sharply in recent years, pushing up government spending and prompting renewed debate about how the system should work.

In this episode, Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Eduin Latimer and Tom Waters to explain how Personal Independence Payment (PIP) works, who receives it and why claims have increased. They examine the choices facing the government as the Timms Review considers the future of disability benefits.

Should PIP remain a universal cash benefit? Could more support be provided in kind? Should eligibility depend more on the severity or type of a person’s condition? And what would different reforms mean for claimants and the public finances? The discussion explores the difficult trade-offs involved in reforming disability benefits - including who receives support, what form that support takes and how much the government spends.

This episode draws on new IFS research published as part of the 2026 Green Budget. The 2026 edition of the IFS Green Budget is funded by the Nuffield Foundation, Barclays and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through the Centre for Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy (CPP).

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.