The Grumpy Strategists

The Grumpy Strategists boggle at the sheer chutzpah of PM Albanese and State Premier Malinauskas announcing as a triumph spending $30 billion & taking until 2040 to build submarine construction sheds (not actual submarines). At least the premier had the honesty to say the biggest beneficiaries weren't Australians worried about security, they were the South Australians who are to receive this firehose of taxpayer cash. He's right to be boggled. Meanwhile, Australia's leaders across the spectrum from Labor, through the Coalition into One Nation land are outdoing each other in expressing their fear about the potential return of 34 women and children from camps in Syria, while clamping down on the evil of immigration. It's bad form to notice that our health system - and many other industries - depend on migrants....

The Grumpy Strategists pan for gold in 234 pages of dense, incoherent Government paperwork setting out the Albanese Government's revised plans for our nation's defence, and find some rather smelly nuggets. About $3.2 billion dollars is being brought forward to be spent earlier than planned - with a $1.2 billion chunk on more bills for those still distant AUKUS subs. But the overall Defence budget for this next 4 years is being cut by $2.6 billion. Mr Albanese may have smiled at US President Donald Trump, but he's stood strong against pressure to grow defence spending and got Treasury's razor gang in. Canadian PM Carney might make rousing speeches at Davos opposing the Trump Administration, but Mr Albanese acts. It's a great day for independent middle powers! Oh, and the Defence bureaucracy finds a way to insult King Charles.

The Grumpy Strategists look at the recent 'historic" plan for Australia's Defence real estate (okay, a shameless Government asset sale of historic sites to perhaps produce a one-off cash dribble that will be sucked into the AUKUS sub & Hunter frigate budgetary black holes.....). Metrics show the value of this deceased estate approach to Defence properties: flogging off most of the places Defence actually makes contact with Australians in urban areas may provide enough cash for two "Hegseths" - those $1 billion AUKUS suitcases Richard Marles travels with - or pay for 1/5 of a Hunter frigate. Hmmm. The upside is a joint venture for a tasteful new 112 storey bunker. Then it's a dive into the implications for Australia from the marked strategy shift the US has taken between the Oct 2022 & Jan 2026 National Defense Strategies, & a look at the Pentagon's disgraceful disregard of Mr Trump's recent complete and total obliteration of Iran's nuclear program: by gathering forces to....obliterate Iran's nuclear program. It's so hard to get good help.

Marcus & Michael pull together a deal Australian PM Albanese can offer to his great & powerful pal, US President Trump, at his first meeting of the Board of Peace, with lessons in Trump-management even for Vladimir Putin. They review the Australian Government's cunning formula on US actions in the world - 'I don't intend to provide a running commentary on American policy' - and assess how well this text will work as the basis for Australian strategy in the new National Defence Strategy. Then it's a look at US Navy plans to double down on the failed concepts behind both the Zumwalt class warships and the Littoral Combat Ship, before the episode ends with some good news about Australia & renewable power.

What's in a name? The Trumpy Strategists Bunker showcases the direction of Australian policy in 2025, while the Grumpies ponder MAGA tensions from Turning Point USA to Susie Wiles' cry for help in Vanity Fair. On bigger issues, Marcus & Michael look at the responses so far to the murderous Bondi attack, search for highlights in Australian military capability programs and look over the big policy takeaways from 2025. US self harm & a Beijing happy not to interrupt are prominent. Despite impending Christmas feasts and further Aussie cricketing glory, 2025 is ending with disturbing directions.