The Lowdown from Nick Cohen

Nick Cohen talks to Mark Urban about the UK's deep defence crisis

Nick Cohen & Mark Urban discuss changing dynamics of the American-British alliance and its huge implications for British defence strategy.

Mark Urban and Nick discuss how recent actions by Donald Trump have created uncertainty about America's role as a traditional ally, particularly regarding NATO and European security. They explored how Brexit has weakened Britain's position in Europe at a time when European cooperation is needed more than ever, and criticise the current Labour government's lack of leadership in addressing defence needs.

They talk about how Britain's nuclear deterrent remains dependent on American cooperation, though Mark notes that Britain could maintain its deterrent for about 10 years even if American support was withdrawn. They also discuss how the British military has become increasingly vulnerable and underfunded, with defence spending at just 2.5% of GDP compared to 7% in 1961 when Mark was born.

Mark and Nick discuss the changing dynamics of the British-American alliance, with Mark highlighting that the decline in their relative military and economic power began during World War II. They also discuss how the special relationship has evolved over time, with Mark referencing his book "The Edge" from 2015, which warned about the increasing defence spending by China and Russia and the need for European self-reliance. They agree that the current situation with Donald Trump's administration represents a significant inflection point in this long-term decline, though they acknowledge that the underlying changes have been gradual rather than sudden.

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Mark Urban was for many years a defence correspondent for BBC Newsnight and later its Diplomatic Editor. He has hosted the Crisis Room podcast @crisisroompod. He also writes for tHE Sunday Times. He's also a historian and author with books including Big Boys Rules, Rifles, TF Black, Tank War, Skripal Files, Red Devils.

Mark's latest book Tank is out as a paperback later this year. Mark is also a Trustee for The Imperial War Museum @I_W_M . Mark's Susbtack is called War and Peace.

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.
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Donald Trump is increasingly insane - period!

Nick Cohen talks with U.S commentator and author Claire Berlinski about the increasingly dangerous and insane presidency of Donald Trump which Claire sees as a pattern of national sabotage rather than mere incompetence, impulsiveness, or corruption, highlighting the destructive impact of his policies on US global power and alliances.

The last week has shocked the U.S's one-time allies with his reckless threats against Denmark and Greenland, his abandonment of NATO, the filthy gang of tyrants and international gangsters he's corralled into his absurd and corrupt "Board of Peace", the stupid and offensive insults he's levelled against the allied war dead and his ridiculous and insane rants.

They explore recent events and developments in both the United States and Europe, including Trump's isolationist approach, Britain's response to US actions, and the implications of Trump's statements and actions on American power and credibility. Claire expresses deep concern about the dangers posed by Trump's presidency, particularly regarding nuclear weapons, and explored the potential for Europe to assert its power by reducing its economic and military dependence on the U.S.

Reckless Republicans fail to act against the Mad King of the U.S.

Claire says, "This isn't just one madman. This is a significant segment of the American public and they don't show much sign of understanding what they've done. Having seen that this can happen, how does anyone put the faith in the United States that was granted to the United States, almost unthinkingly by many nations to the point that Britain completely united its defence and security with American institutions?

Claire adds "I can't explain how an entire political party could be hostage to this madman in the way that they are, even to the point that they are forfeiting their own children's security and futures."

Donald Trump represents an existential threat to every human being

Clairs says, "It's overwhelmingly obvious that this is. An existential danger to every living human being. Donald Trump has the power to launch as many as 4,000 nuclear weapons unilaterally. He requires no one's permission, and if he gives the order, should do it. His, his subordinates are, are, the law says they have to execute it."

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Claire Berlinski @Claire Berlinski is an American author and commentator based in Paris. Claire's regular Substack column The Cosmopolitan Globalist - is a must read for anyone looking for keen analysis of insight into the continuing Trump Trauma in the U.S. - a crisis which has serious implications for all of us and the current world order. Claire also co-hosts a podcast - Critical Conditions - with Dan Perry

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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Trump & Putin - the despots at war with our world
In this week's Lowdown, Nick Cohen talks to Professor Sam Greene - the Director of the Russia Institute at King's College London about Vladamir Putin and Donald Trump, and how about how much longer Russia can endure the continuing carnage and humiliation of its seemingly never ending aggression against Ukraine.

What Putin intended to be a few days of Blitzkrieg in February 2022 will soon enter its fifth gruesome year and has already lasted longer than the so-called "Great Patriotic War" - which is how the Russians describe World War 2. That war led to more than 20 million Soviet Union deaths. The current slaughter is sending 1,000 Russian soldiers a week to the cemetery or the casualty ward.

How much longer can Putin last?

Sam Greene and Nick Cohen examine the resilience of Putin's corrupt authoritarian regime despite current challenges, analysing how the system maintains stability through widespread compliance and fear among citizens while retaining imperial assumptions about Russian dominance. They also discuss Russia's political future after Putin, considering the potential for authoritarian systems to evolve while maintaining control, and compare this to similar dynamics in the United States. Sam reveals that Putin has now equalled the number of political prisoners incarcerated by Cold War era Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev.

Putin and Trump - Parallels in Russia and US

Sam and Nick discuss the parallels between authoritarianism in Russia and the United States, focusing on how both regimes exert control through fear and compliance rather than direct force. Sam highlights the complacency of elites and institutions in the US noting how they accommodate the current administration's demands, similar to the Russian system where power is concentrated and opposition is silenced. They also touch on the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Russian oligarchs, which initially aimed to encourage a shift towards rule of law but ultimately failed as the oligarchs prioritised profit over safety. Their chat concludes with a reflection on the potential for political change, emphasising that authoritarian systems often change only after they have already begun to unravel.

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Professor Sam Greene @samagreene is Director of the Russia Institute @KingsRussia of King's College London. Sam has authored or co-authored two main books: "Moscow in Movement: Power & Opposition in Putin's Russia" (2014) and "Putin v. the People: The Perilous Politics of a Divided Russia" (2019, co-authored with Graeme Robertson). Sam's Substack - TL;DRussia - is a must read for anyone wanting to keep up with events in Putin's Russia.

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.
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Nick Cohen talks to influential leading US commentator Charlie Sykes who has a grim warning for the West about Trump and the far-right revolutionaries now in charge of the White House

America's dark revolution threatens the world

"We're not dealing with something that's going to be fixed by a midterm election. We are dealing with a fundamentally revolutionary time - a revolutionary age in which America has gone from being a reliable ally and a role model to being a genuine threat to being a genuine threat to western values, to western democracy and frankly to the western economies as well."

Trump's ICE - the real and current threat faced by all Americans

Charlie talks to Nick about the recent fatal shooting by an ICE agent in cold blood of mother of three Renee Good this week. Trump has awarded ICE a huge $170 billion budget - far beyond what most of the world's militaries could hope to expect. Charlie says, "This was police murder in the same city in which George Floyd was murdered by police, and, and I don't think that this is going to go away anytime soon ...
Is this going to be the pivot point? Is this going to be a turning point? And it often turns out not to be, but in this particular case, this was not just a one off. This is the inevitable result of this deliberate policy of fear."

Trump intends to demoralise his political enemies

Charlie believes Trump and his acolytes are determined on permeating a feeling of hopelessness in their political opponents, adding, "It is painful and a lot of Americans are really struggling with that right now. And of course, that's what authoritarians want. They want people to be completely demoralised, to be completely depressed. You know, pessimism is a great weapon. But I'll be honest with you, we struggle with that every single day and this week feels."

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Charlie Sykes @SykesCharlie is a leading highly respected United States conservative political commentator who was formerly editor-in-chief and founder of the highly influential website The Bulwark. Charlie has been a leading Never Trump Conservative since Trump stood for the presidency in 2015. Charlie's Substack - To the contrary is a must read, and his regular podcast - also called To the contrary - a must listen. He has also been a columnist and author for the progressive channel MSNBC.

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.
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Charlotte Leslie, a former Conservative MP, discusses the rise of the radical right in politics and the potential for a Reform-led government in the UK, emphasising the need to take the group seriously despite their challenges. She and Nick Cohen explore the underlying divisions in British society that led to Brexit, using her experience as an MP for Bristol Northwest as an example, and discussed Farage's political strategies and leadership style. The conversation concluded with discussions on immigration and integration, the challenges of discussing Islam and political Islam, and the future of the Conservative Party, including its approach to Farage and various international issues.

Conservative Party's Path Forward
Charlotte and Nick discuss the challenges and future of the Conservative Party. Charlotte suggested that the party is going through a difficult period but will eventually emerge stronger, comparing it to a bushfire that rejuvenates the roots. Nick expresses concern about the lack of a clear conservative argument against Farage, noting that the Tory press has largely abandoned its traditional values. Both agree that significant changes and reforms are needed for the party to survive and thrive in the long term.

Conservative Party's Strategic Challenges
Charlotte, discusses the Conservative Party's approach to Nigel Farage and his views on Russia-Ukraine, suggesting that the party should focus on exposing Farage's positions rather than attacking him personally. She criticized the party's handling of migration issues and the lack of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, which she believes could have prevented the toxic Brexit vote. Charlotte also highlights the need for a nuanced approach to Israel-Palestine issues, advocating for depolarisation and thoughtful analysis. She acknowledged a shift in public opinion regarding Israel's actions in Gaza, with some younger Conservatives questioning the country's response.

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Charlotte Leslie @CharlotteLeslie is the Director of the Conservative Middle East Council @cmec_uk and a Goodwill Ambassador for @GrainFromUA . She was the Conservative MP for Bristol North West

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.
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