The Lowdown from Nick Cohen

THE UK MUST NOT WASTE PRECIOUS TIME MOURNING THE DEATH OF THE OLD U.S.

In the latest episode of The Lowdown, Nick Cohen talks to David Frum, the former George W. Bush speechwriter turned leading “Never Trump” conservative and Atlantic writer, for a wide-ranging discussion on Trump, the deteriorating UK-U.S. relationship, America’s place in the world, and the crisis facing the democratic right.

David Frum begins by challenging easy assumptions about the withdrawal of U.S. heavy bombers from RAF Fairford. Was it another sign of Donald Trump administration’s hostility to Europe and Britain under Labour? Or did it reflect something equally alarming: that drones have changed warfare so dramatically that American bases and aircraft are now far more vulnerable than planners admit? Drawing on the lessons of Ukraine and Iran, Frum argues that the US military may be struggling to adapt to a new age of cheap, effective drone warfare.

The conversation then turns to the future of the US-UK alliance. David Frum warns that Britain can no longer assume America will return to normal once Trump leaves office. After two Trump victories, and with figures such as JD Vance waiting in the wings, European governments must prepare for the possibility that the old Atlantic alliance is gone for good. His advice to Britain is stark: stop living on nostalgia and start building serious European security arrangements.

Cohen and Frum also discuss the coming American midterms, the limits of polling, and why even a Republican defeat may not break Trumpism’s hold over the right. Frum reflects on why conservatism has moved away from markets, fiscal discipline and internationalism towards nationalism, grievance and protectionism. Economic shocks, mass migration, ageing electorates and pension politics, he argues, have all helped destabilise the old Reagan-Thatcher settlement.

The interview ranges from Trump’s war with Iran to Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, where authoritarianism works less by openly persecuting the innocent than by protecting the guilty. Frum sees echoes of that model in Trump’s America, but also signs that impunity may be starting to crack.

It is a sobering but gripping conversation with one of America’s sharpest conservative critics of Trumpism — and a warning that Britain and Europe must stop waiting for the past to return.

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David Frum @davidfrum Writer, http://TheAtlantic.com; Host, The David Frum Show. Contact via https://davidfrum.com/page/contact or Producer@TheDavidFrumShow.com

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Read Nick's latest column, Can Europe resist Trump's gangsterism? Does it have the willpower to try?
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The Holborn by-election result is a disaster for the Greens

Nick Cohen delivers his thoughts on the recent Holborn and St Pancras by-election results, where Labour comprehensively defeated the Green Party candidate, and its leader, Zack Polanski. Cohen criticises Polanski's leadership, particularly his absence during the controversial Green Party conference where motions on Israel and Palestine were debated, and highlighted how Jewish members' amendments were rejected. Nick talks about the broader implications for the Green Party's direction, comparing Polanski's approach to different "Islamist-leftist" political movements across Europe and North America, and warned about the potential for the Green Party to abandon environmental issues in favour of radical politics that could exploit fear and racism similar to right-wing parties. Nick concludes that the by-election result was beneficial for Labour's Andy Burnham, who can now present himself as the voice of sensible radical left politics while dismissing the Green Party as an irrelevance.
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CLIMATE CHANGE - COMING TO A TOWN NEAR YOU!

In his latest The Lowdown podcast, Nick Cohen talks to author & former diplomat Arthur Snell about the growing climate crisis and its global impacts. Aftera summer of 2026 & that will be remembered for its relentless record-breaking heatwaves, Arthur, the author of Elemental, his latest book, describes the grim s tate of climate change response, noting missed targets and the persistence of fossil fuel reliance despite the affordability of renewables. Arthur and Nick discuss the role of China in driving down renewable costs and the geopolitical shifts this causes, contrasting it with America's doubling down on fossil fuels. The conversation covered the link between climate change and conflict, particularly in Africa's Sahel region, and the challenges of adaptation, including infrastructure investment and political opposition. Arthur Snell explains the limitations of geo-engineering as a solution and expressed cautious optimism, stating that humanity will probably continue to adapt to a more erratic climate and mitigate its effects, though extreme weather will become more common.

Arthur says: "I think we're in the odd position where, the, the people who we need to rely on to sort of save us are the authoritarians of the Chinese Communist Party, which is, is an uncomfortable, situation to be in. And, and the reason I say that is arguably, I think a lot of this comes down to pure kind of strategic calculation. Of course, China is, very dependent on energy imports and has been for decades. , So for China, the argument to push for, massive renewable energy expansion is a no brainer. And, and I'm not actually denying that the Chinese, unlike Donald Trump, probably do care a bit about the climate crisis for all kinds of logical reasons, just as our own leaders do."

Arthur also says of the populists taking advantage of climate change: "I think part of this is, is playing, playing the man and not the ball... the populists will respond to these events by attacking the government's response. And you know, whenever there's a disaster, there's always something that you can have a go at. So you can say that because of, you know, wasting time on woke policies.... think the other thing that, that populists do is they, they weaponise fear and they, they talk about the economic aspects of it. And so they say, well, these people are going to bankrupt us, and what we need to be doing is investing in our emergency responses, and instead they're going to bankrupt us by insisting that we, we have expensive renewable energy or things like that."

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Arthur Snell's @SnellArthur @snellarthur.bsky.social substack column is Not all doom & his regular inciteful podcast is Behind the Lines. Arthur's latest book tackles the growing climate crisis and is called Elemental - The new geography of climate change and how we survive it. Arthur's first not fiction book was How Britain Broke the World: War, Greed and Blunders from Kosovo to Afghanistan, 1997-2022 .

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Read Nick's latest column, Can Europe resist Trump's gangsterism? Does it have the willpower to try?
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Nigel Farage & the radical right have tried to use the strange events at RAF Fairford to feed the politics of hate

In his latest Lowdown podcast short, Nick Cohen discusses Nigel Farage's extraordinary and irresponsible attempts to make political capital from the strange events at RAF Fairford this week, including allegations of an alleged Iranian-linked terrorism. Without any evidence, and before anyone was even charged, Farage rushed headlong onto social media and heavily suggested this was an Iranian plot, using terrorists who got into the UK on one of the small boats!

Nick says that while the story initially appeared serious, the five arrested men were released on bail, no weapons were found, and one suspect had actually called the police. Nick argues that Farage used the event to falsely link the incident to asylum seekers and small boats, despite the suspects being British citizens. He claims Farage then aligned himself with the extreme right by comparing the situation to that of Danny "Tommo", a leader of a group that menaces ports. Nick describes a "media political complex" involving Farage, Rupert Lowe, and GB News that pressures the police and undermines contempt of court laws. Nick concludes by quoting a psychological profile of Adolf Hitler to suggest that Farage and his allies use similar tactics of repetition and blame to maintain supporter dependency.
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TRUMP'S "EMPIRE OF GRIFT" - WHY THE U.S. WE ONCE KNEW & TRUSTED MAY BE STONE COLD DEAD

In this episode of The Lowdown, Nick Cohen talks with author and journalist Anne Applebaum about her recent essay in The Atlantic, which describes the current U.S. administration under Trump as an "empire of grift." Anne Applebaum explains that this administration has abandoned America's traditional role as a leader of democracies, instead promoting corruption, far-right ideologies, and imperialist policies both domestically and abroad. Canada's PM Mark Carney was among the first of prominent western leaders to publicly proselytise recognise the disturbing truth about the U.S. and propose a strategy to build a new order without such reliance on U.S. for our security.

She details how the administration seeks to manipulate elections and influence politics in allied democracies like the UK, Canada, and European countries, often aligning with far-right groups and using economic pressure. Anne discusses the ideological underpinnings, including the Great Replacement Theory, and the normalisation of breaking democratic taboos. Chillingly, she warns that even if Trump loses power, the ideas and networks driving this movement will persist, and she advised European countries to consider alternative security arrangements. The conversation also touched on the role of tech companies and cryptocurrency in funding and amplifying these movements. Anne concludes by emphasising the fundamental will to power motivating these actions, referencing George Orwell's insights on the appeal of authoritarianism.

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Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum @TheAtlantic and @SNFAgoraJHU is the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of such brilliant best-selling histories as Gulag, Iron Curtain, Red Famine, Twilight of Democracy and now AUTOCRACY INC . Find her more often on http://wsocial.eu Warsaw, London, Washington linktr.ee/anneapplebaum . Her lates essay Empire of Grift is in the latest edition of The Atlantic.

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 regular Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond is must-read.
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