The Munk Debates Podcast

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Rudyard and Janice focus today's episode on the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Trump's negotiating team has dropped their demands on ballistic missile production and support for militia groups in the region, but the Islamist regime will not give up their nuclear program. Why is Iran unwilling to negotiate when it is so weak politically and militarily? Why would it risk getting into a fight with an opponent with whom they are so unevenly matched? And how much of their position is tied to the religious fundamentalism of its revolutionary movement? In the back half of the show Rudyard and Janice try to make sense of what is motivating Trump to pursue this strike without significant support from his base. What does Iran have to agree to so that Trump is able to back down from this fight and claim a win?

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Rudyard and Andrew react to the fallout from the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's tariffs and the President's angry response. How will Trump being denied this authority affect upcoming CUSMA negotiations? Andrew suggests we should expect to see demands from the Trump administration that go far beyond the traditional trade grievances. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Andrew turn to AI and how this new technology will displace white collar jobs. What kind of policy response should we expect from the government in Ottawa? Andrew is more optimistic that this will not be as upending as some are predicting; the history of technological change suggests it will take longer than people suspect for AI to be adopted. There will be jobs lost, but will there be new jobs created? And finally, given that this is a global action program, and we cannot silo ourselves off from the United States and China, what can the Canadian government do to reduce the risk to our economy?

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The U.S. is ramping up its military presence near Iran as negotiations fail to yield any compromise from the regime. We are now in a Middle East standoff which finds Trump trapped. Is a strike inevitable? What are the costs here besides a regional war and where is Iran's defense going to come from? Janice worries that Trump does not have a military strategy beyond the first few days, and this is a conflict that could go on for weeks. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice discuss the light strike option that would try to force Iran to come to the negotiating table. If the Ayatollah decides to become a martyr, we could end up with a ruling class of militant revolutionary guards; a group of younger, more radicalized men that will be more willing to use force in the region. Could Trump's actions in Venezuela give us insight into his designs on Iran? And finally, with approaching midterm elections, a MAGA base that doesn't want war, and the potential of skyrocketing oil prices, does Trump need to TACO, climb down, and agree to a bad deal?

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This week, the U.S. President became a troll under a bridge, we learned AI is coming for our jobs, and America could be headed towards war with Iran. But amidst it all, a big story in Minnesota did not get the coverage it deserves: in a major retreat, the Trump administration is withdrawing significant numbers of ICE agents from the area. This story shows the importance of local people on the ground organizing and recording unseemly and unlawful behaviour for the public. Meanwhile there are musings that the President is considering pulling out of CUSMA negotiations as relations with Canada continue to decline and his behaviour gets more erratic. What will happen if he loses in the midterms? A defanged Trump is a more dangerous president than the version we are currently witnessing. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice talk about the likelihood of the Liberals calling a spring election to seize on high poll numbers, presenting their case to Canadians as needing a national mandate as they enter into tough CUSMA negotiations. Rudyard and Janice suggest, however, that there is more going on behind the scenes that is driving Canada towards a snap election.

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Donald Trump is trying to claim that the new $6.4-billion bridge built between Windsor and Detroit - fully funded by Canada - should belong in part to the US. This is not just about a bridge, it's a commentary on the decline in US-Canada relations. Trump's bizarre Truth Social post also tries to delegitimize Canada as a vassal state of China and a threat to the United States. Trump is trying to destabilize Canada and all signs suggest he will attempt to use the leverage of CUSMA to impose all kinds of conditions on us as we enter into new trade negotiations. Andrew believes he is overstating his leverage and destroying the American trade position such that every traditional US trade partner is looking elsewhere to make deals. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Andrew turn to Canadian domestic politics and rumours that Mark Carney will call a spring election to shore up a majority government. Why would the Liberals want an election sooner than later? And can Carney get his majority without forcing Canadians to head to the polls?