You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing y...
E122: Victor Davis Hanson on What Trump Thinks of Zelensky and Predicting Geopolitics
In this Upstream episode, Erik Torenberg sits down with military historian Victor Davis Hanson. They discuss the future of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, the evolution of the American left, and Donald Trump's potential future legacy.
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SPONSORS:
☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine
🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world.
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💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
LINKS:
Official site: https://victorhanson.com/
The Victor Davis Hanson podcast: https://victorhanson.com/podcasts/
Hoover Institution - featured publications and videos: https://www.hoover.org/profiles/victor-davis-hanson
Erik's substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/
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X / TWITTER:
@VDHanson
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
—
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Trump's second term will likely be less chaotic due to appointees who align with his agenda.
The Republican party is now more unified without "Never Trumpers."
Trump expanded his coalition by winning significant portions of Hispanic and Black male votes.
JD Vance is positioned as a strong 2028 candidate due to his background and communication skills.
Europe will likely move politically rightward due to economic and defense inadequacies.
Germany maintains trade surpluses while not meeting NATO defense spending requirements.
The US-European relationship has become unbalanced with Europeans criticizing while depending on American defense.
The Ukraine-Russia conflict will likely end with a DMZ rather than Ukraine reclaiming all territory.
Putin invaded Ukraine because he perceived weakness in US leadership.
Western interference in Ukrainian politics contributed to tensions.
Trump's peace plan includes strategic investment in Ukrainian minerals near the DMZ.
There's inconsistency in how the US approaches Ukraine versus Israel regarding civilian casualties.
China is less likely to invade Taiwan compared to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Pacific allies are actively rearming against Chinese threats.
New warfare technologies like drones may prove more effective for Taiwan's defense than traditional carriers.
Israel struggles to convert tactical victories into strategic resolution.
"Abraham Accords" allies have complex motivations including concerns about Iran.
Western democracies struggle with asymmetric warfare and maintaining resolve for definitive victory.
Democrats should return to Clinton-era policies on borders, crime, and budgets.
Democrats are controlled by a hard left with positions only 20% of Americans support.
Trump is transforming American politics from race-based to class-based coalition building.
Republicans are becoming "the party of the middle class" while Democrats represent coastal elites and the subsidized poor.
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37:51
E121: Kevin Kelly on What Makes Us Human in an AI World
In this episode of Upstream, we’re releasing Erik Torenberg’s interview from 2023 with Kevin Kelly, founding executive editor of Wired Magazine, discussing Kevin’s new advice book, the impact of gratitude, and how technology, especially AI, interacts with and shapes human existence and culture.
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📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
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RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️ Second Opinion
Join Christina Farr, Ash Zenooz and Luba Greenwood as they bring influential entrepreneurs, experts and investors into the ring for candid conversations at the frontlines of healthcare and digital health every week.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/second-opinion-with-christina-farr-ash-zenooz-md-luba/id1759267211
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SecondOpinionwithChristinaFarr
—
SPONSORS:
☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine
🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world.
🕵️♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream
💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
LINKS:
Kevin Kelly's book: Excellent Advice for Living: https://www.amazon.com/Excellent-Advice-Living-Wisdom-Earlier/dp/0593654528
—
X / TWITTER:
@kevin2kelly
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
—
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Kevin Kelly published an advice book featuring "telegraphic aphorisms" rather than stories, which better suits his style.
Kevin believes gratitude unlocks all virtues by connecting us to others through recognizing what we've been given.
Emotional responses work faster than logical thinking, which is why people remember how you made them feel more than what you said.
Reflecting on what irritates you in others can provide valuable insight into understanding yourself.
Humans are "opaque to themselves," lacking clear understanding of their own minds and motivations.
Kevin disputes overpopulation concerns, warning instead about future population collapse.
According to Kelly, the joy of having children compounds, and he's never met anyone who regretted having more children.
Kevin views speciation of humans as more likely to come through genetic engineering than cyborg technology.
Kevin dismisses rapid AI takeover fears as "comic book fantasy," arguing that intelligence alone doesn't guarantee dominance.
The concept of "we've invented our humanity" refers to language, cooking, domestication, and other technologies that shaped human evolution.
Kevin predicts AI will help us understand our own intelligence better, forcing us to reconsider concepts like creativity.
Most effective systems combine mostly decentralized elements with small amounts of centralized control.
Silicon Valley's contribution to culture includes "demoralizing failure" – reframing it as a necessary component of progress.
Small, managed failures prevent catastrophic ones and should be viewed as learning experiences.
Kelly embraces the concept of "fail forward" – treating failures as stepping stones rather than endpoints.
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50:16
E120: Why Europe Matters for America’s Future w/ Samo Burja
This week on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the widespread interest in U.S. politics and its global influence, particularly in Western and European countries, the internet's role in synchronizing political and cultural norms, and potential changes in European political landscapes influenced by American ideologies and media.
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🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
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RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️Live Players
Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja
🎙️ Second Opinion
Join Christina Farr, Ash Zenooz and Luba Greenwood as they bring influential entrepreneurs, experts and investors into the ring for candid conversations at the frontlines of healthcare and digital health every week.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/second-opinion-with-christina-farr-ash-zenooz-md-luba/id1759267211
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SecondOpinionwithChristinaFarr
—
SPONSORS:
☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine
🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world.
🕵️♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream
💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
LINKS:
Two buttons meme: https://ih1.redbubble.net/image.2365085899.3351/st,small,507x507-pad,600x600,f8f8f8.jpg
The Clash of Civilizations: https://www.amazon.com/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/1451628978
Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
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X / TWITTER:
@SamoBurja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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1:00:10
E119: Free Trade, AI Integration, and Shopify Q4 Results w/ Shopify President Harley Finkelstein
Erik Torenberg interviews Harley Finkelstein, president of Shopify, discussing tariffs, political shifts, Shopify's earnings, and the evolution of entrepreneurship.
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📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
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RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
SPONSORS:
☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine
🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world.
🕵️♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream
💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
LINKS:
Shopify: https://www.shopify.com/
Firebelly Tea: https://www.firebellytea.com/
Big Shot Podcast: https://www.bigshot.show/
Shopify president on e-commerce trends, impact of tariffs and state of the consumer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=si_j0P0DPM4
World's First Podcast: https://linktr.ee/worldsfirstpodcast
Nobody Wants This (Netflix): https://www.netflix.com/title/81591296
—
X / TWITTER:
@harleyf
@Shopify
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
—
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Harley views tariffs as adding unnecessary complexity to entrepreneurship.
Shopify advocates for streamlining business creation processes.
Not every business needs external funding to succeed.
Shopify Capital helps merchants who can't access traditional funding.
Harley's Big Shot podcast archives stories of successful Jewish entrepreneurs.
A common theme across entrepreneur interviews is crediting spouses for success.
October 7th strengthened Harley's connection to his Jewish identity.
Harley employs different mentors for different aspects of life.
Montreal's culture celebrates entrepreneurs as cultural heroes.
Commonwealth countries suffer from "tall poppy syndrome" that discourages standing out.
2024 was Shopify's strongest year with nearly $300 billion in GMV.
International merchants now represent 50% of Shopify's user base.
Post-omnichannel commerce focuses on selling in places most relevant to specific customers.
Content, entertainment, and commerce are increasingly blending for successful brands.
Shopify takes a practical approach to AI implementation across its platform.
AI features include generated replies, media editing, and business coaching.
Shopify created dual career tracks: management and "crafters" (individual contributors).
The "Mastery" program enables promotions while staying focused on craft expertise.
Shopify operates "digital by design" - primarily remote with intentional gatherings.
Leadership team members are distributed across multiple geographic locations.
The company uses "tours of duty" - three-year commitments with deliberate check-ins.
Employees must grow at a rate equal to or greater than the company's growth.
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58:43
E118: Ending Woke, Why Elon Wins, and A Return to Innovation w/ Marc Andreessen [Moment of Zen repost]
Marc Andreessen and Erik Torenberg discuss the ongoing political and cultural shift in America, covering topics such as preference falsification, the role of DEI in tech and other sectors, the influence of group chats, and the emerging dynamic in politics with highly capable appointments in the new administration.
—
📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
—
RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️Moment of Zen
Every week, Erik Torenberg, Dan Romero, Antonio Garcia Martinez and frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond.
Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/15KYOzvDzAQvqX0z0SpHEJ
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moment-of-zen/id1661672738
🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
—
SPONSORS:
☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine
🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world.
🕵️♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream
💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
LINKS:
"Private Truth, Public Lies" by Timur Kuran: https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674707580
"The Power of the Powerless" by Václav Havel: https://www.amazon.com/Power-Powerless-Vaclav-Havel/dp/178487504X
"Why are Jews Liberal" by Norman Podhoretz: https://www.amazon.com/Why-Jews-Liberals-Norman-Podhoretz/dp/0307456250
"Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand: https://www.amazon.com/Atlas-Shrugged-Ayn-Rand/dp/0451191145
Pew Research Survey: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2023/03/15/americans-feel-more-positive-than-negative-about-jews-mainline-protestants-catholics/
—
X / TWITTER:
@pmarca
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
—
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Commerce Secretary now advocates for out-innovating China, marking a complete reversal.
"Preference falsification" in American society is starting to unwind.
The 2014 Mozilla CEO cancellation became a template for future tech industry purges.
"Woke" ideology is declining culturally but remains embedded in institutions.
Private messaging groups became modern samizdat for honest communication.
Cultural shifts start in San Francisco and spread outward with predictable delays.
October 7th caused major Jewish American political realignment.
Evangelical Christians show strong support for Jews despite opposite sentiment in return.
New administration appointments show exceptional quality compared to historical standards.
Government blocked innovation in physical things, then tried to restrict digital innovation.
European regulations are forcing global tech compliance.
New administration combines experienced staffers with high-caliber outsiders.
You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing you expert-level conversations hosted by some of the most compelling thinkers in the world including Noah Smith, Samo Burja, Byrne Hobart, Erik Torenberg, and Nathan Labenz. Guests include Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, Dario Amodei, Brian Armstrong, David Sacks, Sam Harris, Katherine Boyle, Curtis Yarvin, and many more unmissable conversations.
Upstream is part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: turpentine.co
UK