You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing y...
E104: AI Meets Geopolitics w/ Samo Burja and Nathan Labenz
Today on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode which originally aired on The Cognitive Revolution, a podcast from the Turpentine Network. Samo Burja and Nathan Labenz discuss AI's impact on geopolitics, scientific progress, and economic strategies, emphasizing the importance of AI science, the risks of weaponizing AI, and the future of industrial and energy policies in the U.S. and China.
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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
🎙️The Cognitive Revolution
The Cognitive Revolution is a podcast about AI where hosts Nathan Labenz interviews the builders on the edge of AI and explore the dramatic shift it will unlock over the next decades.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk?si=7357ec31ac424043&nd=1&dlsi=060a53f1d7be47ad
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431
🎙️Live Players
Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja
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SPONSORS:
🤲🏼 GiveWell is dedicated to finding outstanding giving opportunities and publishing the full details of their analysis to help donors decide where to give. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. (Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to support our show.)
💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
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LINKS:
The Cognitive Revolution Website: https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai
Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
The impact of AI on geopolitics and scientific progress represents a significant area of strategic analysis.
AI development serves as a test of people's worldviews and assumptions, revealing underlying beliefs about technology and intelligence.
While there has been real scientific progress in AI, recent years have primarily involved applying theoretical insights from the early 2000s rather than creating fundamentally new breakthroughs.
Scaling laws for AI have proven less reliable than initially thought, with unexpected developments like improved compute efficiency emerging.
Companies with the best AI scientists, rather than just the most compute power, are likely to make the most significant breakthroughs.
Universities have experienced a "strip-mining" of top AI talent by industry, fundamentally affecting the academic system.
ChatGPT's viral success may have actually slowed theoretical progress by shifting focus from research to products.
The chip ban on China came too late and effectively serves as a subsidy for Chinese chip manufacturers to develop their own technology.
The US needs to focus on industrial policy, particularly in semiconductors and energy production, potentially creating a new "Silicon Valley" with special economic zones.
The US-China relationship should be treated as an economic competition rather than a military/security conflict.
India is likely to emerge as a significant player in AI, while Europe's prospects appear less promising following Macron's departure.
Concerns about weaponized AI suggest the importance of peaceful technological development over military applications.
The Leopold Plan (keeping China down while the US develops decisive AI advantage) appears unrealistic and potentially harmful.
Current generative AI technology remains insufficient for sophisticated analytical work.
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1:23:02
E103: Byrne Hobart on What The First AI Agents Will Do + China, Google Analysis
This week on Upstream, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the potential of AI agents in tech support, economic impacts of passive investing, historical financial strategies of Warren Buffett, and the implications of tariffs and technological developments in national wealth.
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🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
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SPONSORS:
🤲🏼 GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. (Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to support our show.)
💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
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LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
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X / TWITTER:
@byrnehobart
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
AI is most effectively being deployed first in customer service where outcomes can be clearly measured and tracked.
Return on Equity (ROE) has become less relevant in modern markets where companies can easily raise capital and buy back shares.
Google has evolved from being criticized for sitting on cash to making aggressive investments in innovation, as demonstrated by Waymo.
Tariffs function as a transfer mechanism from consumers to workers, potentially helping build strategic industries despite some economic inefficiency.
While passive investing continues to grow, there will always be a cyclical role for active trading to enable price discovery and market making.
Meme coins and app-based stock trading represent newer forms of gambling that might be more socially beneficial than traditional sports betting.
A new book reveals Buffett's early investment strategy combined detailed research methods with an evolution from pure value investing to investing in quality companies.
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1:04:35
E102: America’s Culture of Winning w/ Alex Karp and Jacob Helberg
Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir, and Jacob Helberg, discuss AI-enabled warfare, the importance of taking clear ethical stances, the evolution of Silicon Valley culture, and the integration of tech innovation into governmental defense systems at the Hill and Valley Forum in Washington, DC.
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📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
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SPONSORS:
🤲🏼 GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. (Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to support our show.)
💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
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X / TWITTER:
@PalantirTech
@jacobhelberg
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Alex Karp describes Silicon Valley 1.0 as having built useful things with government while aligning with American values.
He characterizes Silicon Valley 2.0 as creating division with wealth concentrated among few people.
Alex Karp notes a current emergence of "tech patriots" in venture capital and defense technology sectors.
Palantir was the first major company to take action after recent conflicts, with Alex Karp being the first CEO to travel to Ukraine after the war began.
The company maintained its stance supporting Israel's right to defend itself after October 7th and held its board meeting in Israel after the attacks.
Palantir took on Project Maven after Google dropped it, facing daily protests in Silicon Valley but maintaining its position.
Alex Karp views AI development as an arms race and notes that the U.S. has no Chinese, Iranian, or Russian competitors in this space.
He emphasizes the urgent need to accelerate the implementation of AI systems in U.S. government operations.
American tech companies dominate globally, representing 86% of the top 50 tech companies' market capitalization.
Palantir demonstrated its success with a 70% growth rate despite what Karp describes as a "nascent and terrible sales force."
Alex Karp attributes American tech success to Calvinist cultural influences that view success positively.
He highlights America's unique combination of high transparency and meritocracy in business operations.
The American system allows companies to self-define their culture within legal boundaries, unlike in many other countries.
He emphasizes how Silicon Valley uniquely tolerates different personalities as long as they deliver results.
He criticizes recent pro-Hamas protests at elite universities as contradicting their stated values of anti-discrimination.
Karp concludes by calling for more people to speak out against these movements both inside and outside their companies.
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32:43
E101: Wokeism & Class w/ David Sacks, Trump’s AI Czar [Upstream Archive]
In this 2023 conversation between Erik Torenberg and David Sacks, they discuss David’s new role as Donald Trump's AI and crypto czar, the shift towards censorship and wokeness in Silicon Valley, particularly at companies like PayPal and Twitter, and the broader implications for free speech, public debate, and the future of liberalism. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/e55b5666-67b9-4c2a-8968-943cee9f0466
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📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
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SPONSORS:
🕵️♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream
💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
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X / TWITTER:
@davidsacks
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:34) Discussion of PayPal's evolution and tech industry changes
(01:08) Early days of PayPal and free speech values
(02:28) The role of ADL and SPLC in tech censorship
(03:39) Changes in Silicon Valley's political culture
(06:39) Government collusion with tech companies
(08:45) Evolution of Silicon Valley's political landscape
(13:54) Discussion of institutional capture
(17:20) Analysis of democratic capitalism's evolution
(22:34) Sponsors: Incogni | Squad
(24:20) Discussion of tech monopolies and regulation
(28:09) Analysis of section 230 and tech regulation
(32:55) Foreign policy evolution and interventionism
(37:18) Discussion of institutional reform
(42:37) Analysis of tech company management
(46:28) Elon Musk's Twitter reforms
(50:28) Future of tech industry and political polarization
(54:40) Discussion of counter-elite formation
(58:50) Solutions for institutional accountability
(01:15:48) Wrap-up and closing remarks
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1:19:08
E100: Marc Andreessen: How 2016 Broke My Mental Model of the World
Following Marc’s great discussion with Joe Rogan, we wanted to share our interview with Marc Andreessen, who recounts his intellectual evolution and his quest to discover how the world works from 2016 onwards. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/09f4b7dc-5fa8-4e0e-a2aa-87344c3db84b
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🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
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SPONSORS:
🕵️♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream
💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
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X / Twitter:
@pmarca
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
—
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:44) Mark's mental model shaken in 2015
(01:55) Historical context and media influence
(03:05) Trump's impact and political shifts
(04:05) Mark's reading journey to understand politics
(05:20) Intellectuals vs. mass movements
(06:28) The role of ideas in political change
(07:41) Hoffer's theory on mass movements
(10:07) Understanding left and right ideologies
(10:35) Historical evolution of political ideologies
(12:51) Sponsors: Incogni | Squad
(15:46) Good intentions and unintended consequences
(18:06) Nietzsche's master and slave morality
(21:16) Balancing merit and fairness in society
(28:37) Historical cycles and economic explanations
(32:52) The pendulum of societal change
(34:13) Introduction to Burnham's theories
(35:03) The managerial revolution
(39:19) The principal-agent problem
(47:29) Elon Musk and bourgeois capitalism
(55:10) The Machiavellians and political power
(58:56) Aristocratic and oligarchic rule
(59:55) The rise of tech founders
(01:00:14) Joining the elite circle
(01:01:28) The social and political network
(01:02:44) Circulation of elites
(01:06:51) Effective altruism and philanthropy
(01:13:39) Meritocracy and elite education
(01:25:31) Global governance and nationalism
(01:27:39) The process of finding answers
(01:28:30) The moral imperative of imposing answers
(01:28:56) Communism and the intellectual foundation
(01:29:30) The oligarchic elite and COVID-19
(01:30:34) The virtues of nationalism
(01:35:54) The iron law of oligarchy
(01:39:45) The need for a superior elite
(01:41:58) The role of competence and unifying ideas
(01:49:57) The internet and the current elite
(01:50:50) The bill comes due
(01:52:40) Wrap
You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing you expert-level conversations hosted by some of the most compelling thinkers in the world including Noah Smith, Samo Burja, Byrne Hobart, Erik Torenberg, and Nathan Labenz. Guests include Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, Dario Amodei, Brian Armstrong, David Sacks, Sam Harris, Katherine Boyle, Curtis Yarvin, and many more unmissable conversations.
Upstream is part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: turpentine.co
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