One Decision

Will Trump make a deal with Iran, escalate, or walk away? Trita Parsi, co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, puts the odds of a deal at less than 50% and says the most likely outcome is a quiet walkaway, with the blockade and sanctions left to decay. But he warns the risk of escalation hasn't passed.

Parsi was one of our first guests after the Iran war began, when he told us Tehran would drive up energy prices to swing the midterms against Trump. He's back to explain why the next four weeks matter, how Iran is cushioning the blockade, and whether the Gulf states and China could anchor a new regional security order.

In this episode:

(00:00) New Supreme Leader Rejects Gray Zone

(00:46) Trita Parsi Returns to One Decision

(01:54) Trump Three Iran Policy Options

(05:22) Nuclear Enrichment as Iranian Leverage

(08:50) Trump Legacy and Iran Vindictiveness

(13:42) Military Escalation Warning Signs

(15:28) What Finishing the Job Means

(17:36) Israel Mowing the Lawn Strategy

(21:58) Gulf States Pushback Against War

(23:44) Iranian Economy Under Blockade

(28:37) Why Status Quo Is Unsustainable

(32:31) Houthis and Regional Ceasefire Challenge

(37:04) Future Gulf Security Architecture

Show Notes:

Trita Parsi's Substack: https://tritaparsi.substack.com/

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies)
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Israel is preparing for another war with Iran, and the decision rests with Donald Trump. Major General Tamir Hayman, former head of Israeli military intelligence, says Israel is swinging between an interim deal and a renewed strike on an hourly basis. Netanyahu wants regime change in Tehran, while Trump wants a deal.

Hayman, a 34-year veteran of the IDF and Executive Director of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, joins Sir Richard Dearlove and John Raine to explain why Israel concluded that regime change in Iran was within reach, the three questions any joint US-Israeli operation must answer before it starts, and what Netanyahu’s legacy means for Israeli security. They also discuss the intelligence failures before October 7, the state of Hamas and Hezbollah, the stalled reconstruction of Gaza, how the Gulf states’ stance on the Iran war has shifted, and what Gadi Eisenkot would do differently. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu led the bloc that received the most votes in last week’s Israeli elections.

In this episode:

(00:00) Israel Bracing for Renewed Iran War

(00:48) Hosts Introduction Show Welcome

(01:06) Netanyahu Elections After October 7th

(02:45) October 7th Intelligence Security Failures

(06:07) Hamas Deprioritized as Intelligence Target

(15:55) Gaza Reconstruction and Security Redesign

(19:55) Hamas and Hezbollah Military Capabilities

(24:09) Gaza Reconstruction Stalled Political Options

(33:58) Netanyahu Iran Regime Change Strategy

(40:07) Israel Proactive Military Strategy Risks

(45:49) Gulf States Iran War Position

(49:22) Eisenkot's Alternative Security Vision for Israel

(54:06) Trump Iran Strike or Deal

Show Notes:A Second Wave of Popular Anger Is Building in Iran | Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/a-second-wave-of-popular-anger-is-building-in-iran-ac51969c?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies).

Photo credit: Western Wall in Jerusalem, October 2006, Hynek Moravec, Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Generic license.
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Will Trump strike Iran after the 2026 midterm elections, and is a wider war his way out of lame-duck weakness? Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremmer explains why the Iran war may escalate after the US midterms, what a Democratic “blue wave” would mean for Trump’s foreign policy, and whether Trump has passed his peak.

Bremmer also covers what a Democratic Congress would prioritize abroad, the investigations likely to follow the midterms, the future of Republican populism after Trump, and where the Ukraine war stands between Trump and Putin.

Thank you to Incogni for sponsoring. Get 60% off the annual plan with code "onedecision" at https://incogni.com/onedecision

In this episode:

(00:00) Iran War Worst Case Scenario

(03:55) Have We Passed Peak Trump?

(05:20) Trump Midterm Election Outlook

(06:08) Thwarted Trump Foreign Policy Risks

(08:20) Democrats Post-Midterm Investigation Strategy

(10:40) Trump's Vendetta Against Former Insiders

(11:05) Republican Party Populism After Trump

(17:39) Is Trump a Temporary Phenomenon?

(26:10) American Dream and Populist Pitchforks

(28:38) Democratic Geopolitical Priorities After Midterms

(31:16) Iran War: Best and Worst Scenarios

(38:00) Trump, Putin, and the Ukraine War

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies)
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Eight months into the US-Iran war, the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) have taken control of Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, and Trump faces a decision — before and after the midterms: escalate or negotiate?

Carnegie Endowment senior fellow Karim Sadjadpour — a leading Western expert on Iranian politics — joins Kate McCann and former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove to explain the war from inside Tehran: why the clerics have been replaced by military hardliners, what Mojtaba Khamenei's personal losses mean for any peace deal, how Netanyahu pushed Trump into the conflict, and the one domestic decision that could be Iran's Gorbachev moment. They also discuss the legacy of Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's nuclear program, and whether US sanctions can force a deal.

In this episode:

(00:00) Iran's Gangster Regime and Revenge

(00:52) US-Iran War Eight Months In

(02:49) Trump's Military Decision on Iran

(04:43) Who Really Runs Iran Now

(07:13) Trump's Legacy and Regime Change

(14:55) Four Key Contention Points With Iran

(16:20) Hardliners vs Pragmatists in Iran

(19:04) How Netanyahu Pushed Trump to War

(22:38) Axis of Resistance and the Houthis

(27:53) Strait of Hormuz Crisis Explained

(32:36) Finding a Solution to Iran Conflict

(40:27) Gulf States React to Iran Conflict

(46:40) The One Decision: Mandatory Hijab

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).
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#OpenAI #AI #ArtificialIntelligence

Thank you to Incogni for sponsoring. Get 60% off the annual plan with code onedecision at https://incogni.com/onedecision

OpenAI says it will burn $280 billion by 2030. Sebastian Mallaby gives it a 50/50 chance of running out of money by next summer. So what happens when the world's most prominent AI lab goes bust — and does the US government step in?

Sebastian Mallaby — Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Infinity Machine, a biography of DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis — joins Sir Richard Dearlove and John Raine. They discuss the financial fragility of the leading AI labs, why open-weight AI models are too dangerous to permit, how a US-China non-proliferation deal for AI might work, and what a war game about nuclear submarines revealed about where this is all heading.

In this episode:

(00:00) AI Race Between US and China

(02:08) Sebastian Mallaby on AI Safety

(02:51) Is AI a Blessing or Curse?

(04:03) Who to Trust on AI Safety

(05:35) Demis Hassabis and AI Regulation

(08:23) Cold War Lessons for AI Safety

(11:42) Trump Administration AI Policy

(14:59) Private AI Safety Monitoring

(20:57) Open Weight AI Models Debate

(23:00) Does AI Replicate Consciousness?

(33:24) Is AI Investment a Bubble?

(45:39) AI War Game Nuclear Submarine Scenario

(54:37) The One Decision Open Weight AI

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies).
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