One Decision

From an ultimatum to a “pause” in attacks, did President Donald Trump just blink, or is he playing a much larger game with Iran? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and journalist Kate McCann analyze whether President Trump’s sudden shift on Iran is a genuine diplomatic opening, a calculated move to cool soaring global oil prices, or an attempt to buy time for US Marine reinforcements to arrive. They also explore the potential strategic friction between the US and Israel, Trump’s broader foreign policy objectives, including Venezuela and Cuba, and the UK and Europe’s reluctant role in the escalating Iranian conflict.

In this episode:


01:56 – From 48 Hour Ultimatum to Five-Day Pause


03:40 – The Fragility of Global Markets


05:26 – Are There Backchannel Talks Inside Iran?


07:48 – Escalating to De-Escalate


09:41– Israel-US Divergent Aims


11:36 – Does the Conflict Help or Hurt Trump?


15:14 – UK and Europe on the Sidelines

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).
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The Strait of Hormuz is in a chokehold. The scale of this oil supply disruption has already exceeded the shocks of the 1970s. Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood sit down with Helima Croft, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and former senior CIA analyst, to break down what market players are getting wrong, why reopening the Strait is far harder than it looks, and what a Houthi entry into the conflict could mean for the Red Sea. 

In this episode:


3:04 Technical Side of Supply Disruption 


6:11 IEA and Comparison to Russia-Ukraine 


9:32 Alternative Routes for Oil and Gas 


12:08 Russia is the Big Winner


13:13 Ground Troops Needed to Open the Strait of Hormuz 


17:14 The US Domestic Picture 


21:43 Will Houthis Disrupt the Red Sea? 


27:52 What Market Participants Are Not Understanding


30:57 Is $200 Barrel Crude Oil Possible? 


33:19 Sir Richard and Rosanna Discussion  

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)
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President Trump’s call for naval assistance in the Strait of Hormuz has not been answered by European allies. Does this signal a growing crisis of confidence in the West? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and international journalist Rosanna Lockwood examine the latest developments in the war with Iran, as well as rising political polarization in France and the UK, fears of domestic terrorist attacks in the West, and the critical importance of Kharg Island to the global energy market.

In this episode:


01:48 – The divisive dilemma at the Strait of Hormuz


04:05 – Fears of Iranian proxy terror attacks in the West


06:14 – Political polarization in European elections


12:45 – Iran’s internal media strategy


14:47 – The strategic importance of Kharg Island

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)
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What exactly drove President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel in joint strikes against Iran? Ronen Bergman joins from Tel Aviv where he is a Senior Correspondent for Military and Intelligence Affairs for Yedioth Ahronoth and staff writer for The New York Times Magazine. He shares his reporting of how Netanyahu moved Trump toward a joint strike, and why he's staying quiet about it for now.

Then, retired Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, former Israeli Defence Forces spokesperson and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, breaks down the major Israeli military objectives and how close Israel is to achieving each one. Plus, what Arab Gulf states are privately telling Israel. 

In this episode:

01:24 New Leader Wounded

06:42 Israel Aims And Limits

09:36 Regime Change Doubts

16:14 Israeli Public Mood

23:30 Intel Airpower Strategy

25:12 Introducing LT. COL. (RET.) Jonathan Conricus 

29:48 Strait of Hormuz Threat

32:45 Stopping Enriched Uranium

36:21 War Communications as Force Multiplier 

40:55 Regime Change Scenarios

43:58 Gulf States Defense 

Show Notes: 


Iran’s New Supreme Leader Was Wounded Early in the War, Iranian and Israeli Officials Say - The New York Times 

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)
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One of the few Americans briefed before US hit Iran sits down with Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood to share his analysis: the legal justification is false, the strategic endgame doesn't exist, and we may have just handed Iran every reason to build a nuclear weapon. US Representative Jim Himes (D-CT), Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee, breaks down Trump's grip on Capitol Hill, and whether the only exit is a face-saving declaration of victory.

Recorded March 9th, 2025.

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)
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