This episode of the China Global podcast discusses evolving disputes between China and South Korea, specifically regarding their unresolved maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea. There is a long history of fishing disputes between the two countries in the Provisional Measures Zone (or PMZ) of the Yellow Sea, which is where their exclusive economic zones overlap. Although China and South Korea have engaged in negotiations over the years, they have yet to come to an agreement on their boundaries in the Yellow Sea.Taking advantage of the persisting disagreement on delimitation of maritime borders, China has employed gray zone tactics in the Yellow Sea to expand its territorial presence in the region. In the most recent dispute, China installed a new steel structure in the PMZ, causing a maritime standoff between Chinese and Korean coast guards.To discuss recent developments in the Yellow Sea and China’s broader gray zone tactics in the maritime realm, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Ray Powell, the Director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. Ray is also the co-host of the Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific podcast, and a 35-year veteran of the US Air Force. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:43] Strategic Significance of the Yellow Sea[03:12] Expanding Chinese Control in the Region[04:08] Chinese Maritime Installations [05:20] Are these installations found in other regions?[06:00] Gray Zone Tactics in the South China Sea [08:20] Maritime Militia Activity in the Yellow Sea[09:02] 2001 Korea-China Fisheries Agreement[10:34] Testing the Waters with South Korea[12:09] Navigating South Korean Policy Dilemmas[13:48] Rehabilitating China’s Imagine in Korea[15:14] Environmental Issues in Disputed Waters[17:18] Countering Chinese Activities in the Yellow Sea[19:40] SeaLight Tracking and Deciphering Chinese Actions
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22:41
China’s View on Escalation and Crisis Management
As China’s military capabilities expand, US-China frictions intensify, and regional tensions increase, concern is on the rise that a potential crisis, either accidental or deliberate, could take place that could spiral out of control. If a crisis arises with China, leaders may want to de-escalate and prevent a wider conflict. To do so, they will need to understand how China thinks about crisis management and escalation.The guest for this episode has dug into the writings of PLA strategists and authoritative PRC sources as well as Western scholarship to assess how China views military escalation and how the US and other countries can accurately predict and interpret PRC signal in crisis scenarios.Lyle Morris is a Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security at the Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute. His recently published paper is titled “China’s Views on Escalation and Crisis Management and Implications for the United States.” Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:37] Methodology and Authoritative Chinese Sources[04:17] PLA Theories and Concepts of Managing Escalation[06:00] Controlling All Facets of Military Escalation[10:28] Doctrine of Seizing the Initiative[15:21] First Use of Force and a Reluctance to Use Force[19:37] American and Chinese Considerations of Misperception[25:46] Utility of US-China Tabletop Exercises[28:33] Predicting a Taiwan Contingency
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33:01
China’s Digital Governance in the Indo-Pacific
The year 2025 marks the 10th anniversary of China’s Digital Silk Road, which has become an increasingly crucial component of Xi Jinping’s flagship foreign policy project: the Belt and Road Initiative. Over the past decade, China has massively expanded its digital infrastructure investment across the globe. Accompanying the investment has been the diffusion of China’s digital governance norms and standards in recipient states. Countries in the Indo-Pacific have been at the forefront of this stretching Chinese digital influence landscape. The conflation between digital development cooperation and digital governance norms adoption has far-reaching implications that need to be better understood and addressed. To discuss the issue, Michael Caster joins host Bonnie Glaser. Caster is the Head of Global China Programmeat ARTICLE 19, an NGO that advances freedom of opinion and expression. His organization has published two reports examining China's Digital Silk Road. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:30] Understanding China’s Digital Silk Road [05:57] China’s Digital Governance Norms[10:16] China’s Digital Footprints Abroad[16:07] Attractiveness of Chinese Digital Solutions[18:56] Role of High-Tech Companies in Digital Governance[21:44] Assessing the Effectiveness of China’s Digital Governance[23:14] State-Driven Surveillance and Censorship[27:39] China’s BeiDou Navigation System [31:09] How should governments respond to these normative shifts?
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34:36
Nuclear Weaponry and China’s Approach of Strategic Substitution
Nuclear weapons have changed the nature of modern warfare and exerted a profound impact on international politics. The Cold War logic of nuclear deterrence maintains that nuclear-armed states will not attack one another because of fear of massive retaliation, or mutually assured destruction. By this logic, nuclear weapons promote stability and can prevent war.At the same time, however, nuclear weapons created a new dilemma. That is: “How can a state achieve its political objectives through military force without triggering a catastrophic nuclear exchange?”This is a dilemma faced by all countries, especially nuclear powers. States have responded differently to this dilemma. What is China’s answer to this strategic dilemma? What has Beijing been doing to gain strategic leverage? How should we evaluate the success of China’s approach so far?These issues are the subject of a new book titled Under the Nuclear Shadow: China’s Information Age Weapons in International Security. The author, Fiona Cunningham, joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode. Fiona is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. She is also a Faculty Fellow at Perry World House and affiliated with the Center for the Study of Contemporary China and the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:59] How do countries cope with the limited war dilemma?[04:00] China’s Approach of Strategic Substitution[07:24] Adoption of this Third Approach[11:23] Utilizing Information-Age Weapons[15:49] From Brinksmanship to Calibrated Escalation[21:21] Understanding China’s No First Use Posture[26:27] Following China’s Model [30:42] An American Response
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36:13
China’s Middle East Strategy
In the past decade, China has ramped up its engagement in the Middle East, a region which is far from China geographically, but carries growing importance in China’s foreign policy. Economically, China is the biggest importer of the Middle East oil, particularly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Chinese state-owned enterprises have invested heavily in the region under the Belt and Road Initiative with an emphasis on physical and digital infrastructure, including telecommunications, 5G connectivity, submarine optic cables, and security information systems. Diplomatically, China played a role in brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two longstanding regional rivals. Beijing has also been instrumental in expanding the BRICS multilateral mechanism to include four Middle East countries. Securing access to vital natural resources is a key driver of Beijing’s intensified engagement in the Middle East. But China’s interests are broader and encompass economic, geopolitical and strategic considerations.To further discuss China’s interests and evolving role in the Middle East, Michael Schuman joins host Bonnie Glaser. Michael is a nonresident senior fellow at the Global China Hub of the Atlantic Council and an author and journalist with more than 25 years of on-the-ground experience in Asia. He is the co-author of a recently published report by the Atlantic Council titled China’s Middle East policy shift from ‘hedging’ to ‘wedging.’ Timestamps[00:00] Start[02:06] China’s Interest in the Middle East[04:23] Evaluating China’s Strategy of “Wedging” [06:51] Evaluating China’s Position of Neutrality[10:17] Factors Driving China’s Middle Eastern Strategy [13:46] Chinese Bilateral and Multilateral Engagement [16:08] China’s Energy Ties with the Middle East[19:41] Implications for the United States[24:19] Limits to Chinese Engagement
China’s rise has captivated and vexed the international community. From defense, technology, and the environment, to trade, academia, and human rights, much of what Beijing does now reverberates across the map. China Global is a new podcast from the German Marshall Fund that decodes Beijing’s global ambitions as they unfold. Every other week, host Bonnie Glaser will be joined by a different international expert for an illuminating discussion on a different aspect of China’s foreign policy, the worldview that drives its actions, the tactics it’s using to achieve its goals—and what that means for the rest of the world.
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