Disorder

• Ep97. Does Diplomatic Secrecy actually Work? And What’s Next for Centre-Left Politics?

  In this episode, Jason and Alex tackle some probing listener questions. They return to a theme from previous episodes (especially the previous episode with Marcel Dirsus): whether today’s autocratic regimes (China, Russia, Iran) are actually as strong as they appear or might be weaker than we imagine. In response to multiple listen questions on this theme, Alex and Jason debate the cultural and economic missteps of the center-left and the importance of addressing real voter concerns about the pace of social and culture change in the face of rising populism.    Then the Disorder programme pushes out the envelope a bit exploring: the significance of secrecy in intelligence and diplomacy, the political realignment of blue-collar workers, and the looming threat of a cryptocurrency bubble.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links    For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast     Alex’s article on the resemblance of Donald Trump to a Tituskhy: https://www.bylinesupplement.com/p/donald-trump-is-assembling-a-titushky     Listen to our episode on China’s economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f     Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e     Hear Jason on The Bunker talking about post-Assad Syria and the Middle East in the age of Trump - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934   Jason was interviewed about backgammon and Gambling regulation by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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• Ep96. Saved by God to Make American Great Again

  During his second inaugural speech, Trump declared January 20th, 2025 as Liberation Day. His indoor inauguration kept the hoi polloi of the MAGA world literally out in the cold. Inside, the Rotunda was filled with billionaires and family members. Trump’s speech screamed performative sound and fury. "For many years, a radical and corrupt establishment has extracted power and wealth from our citizens, while the pillars of our society lay broken and seemingly in complete disrepair." He then said without a hint of joking, “I was saved by God to make America great again.”  But beyond the pomp and circumstance, what meaningful actions is Trump taking in his first days in office?     Here at the Disorder programme, we try to help Order the Disorder by separating the performative sound and fury of Trump 2.0 from its actual meaningful actions. Jason’s hunch is that much of Trump 2.0 will be Kabuki theatre, as many of Trump’s so-called signature policies are things that he cannot enact as they violate the constitution, but a large implication of his overall programme is to foster deliberate disorder making the US completely different from other markets on things like EVs, oil and gas exploration, manufacturing, worker safety, and regulation, in general.    To break it all down, in this episode, Jason and Alex reflect on the implications of Trump's pronouncements, the combination of lofty Presidential rhetoric mixed with Trump’s standard American carnage imagery, why previous POTUSs and VPs showed up for the Inauguration, and the impact of Trump's executive orders. They also look at the ceasefire in the Middle East and examine if similar tactics might actually work with Russia/Ukraine.     Plus: the depressing and corrosive precedent of Biden's pardons, the shift in Silicon Valley's political allegiance, the role of BitCoin and AI on the American economy, the dynamics between the UK and US, and the role of the UK in a Trumpian World… Why can’t Starmer step up and be a mega Orderer?    To Order the Disorder, the pair suggest that Europe and aligned powers get their act together and start mega ordering, without the US in tow. The show concludes as Jason and Alex postulate that constraining Trump will not happen from external forces, but maybe just maybe there is a potential for the excesses of Trumpism to be contained or managed by internal forces within the Republican Party.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links    For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast     More on Trump’s pardons for Jan 6th rioters https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/opinion/trump-pardons-bolton-jan-6.html     More on the Hamas-Israel ceasefire https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/world/middleeast/hamas-gaza-israel-cease-fire.html     Hear Jason on The Bunker - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934     Jason was interviewed by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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• Ep95. Fox News, Elon, and Neo-populists: Engines of Deliberate Disorder?

  In 2022, Nina Jankowicz was appointed to a brand new role within the US Government – Executive Director of the DHS's Disinformation Governance Board, tasked with tackling disinformation. Within weeks, she was the target of a mass disinformation campaign – driven primarily by Fox News – that put her life, family and career at risk.    In today’s episode, Nina joins Arthur Snell to tell that story – and look at the role of dis- and mis-information around the globe. If the US under Trump turns into a deliberate disorderer in the information space, who will be left to order? There is an argument that medium powers like the UK, Brazil and the EU will hold the key to stemming the tide.    Nina is an expert on Russia, Eastern Europe and Ukraine, but in the early 2020s,  she became better known as an expert on disinformation. In 2022, she was appointed by  the Biden administration to the Disinformation Governance Board, part of the United States Department of Homeland Security. But after Fox attacked her personally, the role was pulled. Since then, she has worked in various NGOs and in other foundations, and her current work is with American Sunlight, which tries to counteract disinformation by providing clear information and research to Americans.    In her conversation with Arthur, she shares insights into the challenges of combating misinformation in the current political landscape, the role of media and big tech in amplifying disinformation, and the implications for democracy. Plus: the duo discuss shifting dynamics within the Republican Party regarding Russia, Elon Musk's influence, the rise of deepfake technology, and the gendered dimension to the violence that permeates online spaces.     And then as they try to Order the Disorder, they look at Brazil as a place where disinformation regulation is starting to work, the importance of information literacy, and what’s been done educationally in Ukraine, plus – could smaller, stronger online communities be the answer?    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links  For more on Nina visit https://www.ninajankowicz.com/     For a CBS explainer on what happened to Nina and the role played by Fox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=64&v=z6havT5C9_M&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2F     Follow Arthur’s pod Behind The Lines https://open.spotify.com/show/4bpdB1iEN3irFueS5CMuq5     Read recent report from the American Sunlight Project on Deepfake Pornography Targeting Members of Congress https://www.americansunlight.org/updates/deepfake-pornography-targeting-members-of-congress     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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• Ep94. Gaza Ceasefire: What’s Next?

  A tentative ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas has been announced by the US and Qatar.  The deal would see a phased release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and an end to Israeli bombardments. If the first round of conditions are met, the cease fire should continue and culminate in further negotiations for additional swaps of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. But what’s next? Will it hold? And how do we get from this transactional bartering to longer term stability in the region?    To discuss this and more, Alex Hall Hall and Jane Kinninmont final co-host a podcast of their own. They (who both have on-the-ground experience in Gaza) discuss: the challenges of establishing trust between the conflicting parties; the fragility of the deal that is currently being agreed; and the need for Western leaders who are trying to leverage the sides for further progress to also emphasise with local populations’ concerns.    Plus: does Trump’s strongman diplomacy actually work?    As they Order the Disorder, the ladies discuss the potential for a new Palestinian leadership, the importance of political will/brinksmanship, and the need for a comprehensive approach to rebuilding Gaza – including addressing economic dependencies.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links  Jane’s Nov 2023 analysis on need for Europe to chart a political pathway out of the violence - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/europe-and-gaza-political-pathways-out-of-the-violence/    Jane’s 2020 article on virtual dialogue with Palestinian youth - https://theelders.org/news/palestinian-perspectives-future    Jane slags off Jared Kushner’s approach to “peace” in an oped for Haaretz during Trump 1 - https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2019-06-16/ty-article-opinion/.premium/jared-kushners-paradigm-busting-mideast-peace-deal-just-wont-work/0000017f-e9a9-d639-af7f-e9ffd4e00000    Read What Gazans Really Think of the War, Who They Blame, and What They Want to Happen Next by Alex https://bylinetimes.com/2024/09/20/gaza-hamas-israel-opinion-poll/     Polling from a youth-led Palestinian polling organisation:  https://institute4progress.org/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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• Ep93. Africa in the Age of Disorder

  In 2024, the Disorder podcast looked a lot at Ukraine, Syria, Israel-Palestine, India, Bangledesh, and even north Africa… but we didn’t devote sufficient time to sub-saharan Africa. So what does Africa look like in the Age of Disorder?    To find out, Jason is joined this week by Professor Clionadh Raleigh. Cliona created Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) which is a US-based NGO. She is also Professor of Political Violence and Geography in the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex in the UK.    The duo discuss, how the Second Trump administration with its proposals for tariffs and increased tensions with China might affect Africa. And then muse on the roles of middle powers like Nigeria and Ethiopia in a disordered world, highlighting their internal challenges and regional influences.     Then they turn their attention to the civil war in Sudan, the impact of external forces like the Wagner Group in that region, and the future of American policy towards Africa amidst these challenges. And as they Order the Disorder, Clionadh suggests that we need for a nuanced understanding of local politics and the impact of external influences on African stability, and that women and girls need to be supported as part of this.    Plus, we announce the start of our new partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). The world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank. As part of that partnership we will be featuring research and guests from their network, and regular live events at their base in Whitehall. To attend the first event on March 11th, pay for a Subscription to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links  Read: Did Wagner Group prove an effective tool for Russian foreign policy? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/did-wagner-group-prove-effective-tool-russian-foreign-policy    Read Has Sudan’s Conflict Reached a Turning Point? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/has-sudans-conflict-reached-turning-point    More on Professor Clionadh: https://acleddata.com/team/prof-clionadh-raleigh/     Read ACLED’s Raleigh Report from December 2024: https://acleddata.com/2024/12/19/the-raleigh-report-december-2024/    Read Semafor’s Predictions for Africa in 2025: https://www.semafor.com/article/01/02/2025/africa-in-2025     RUSI experts in this region are, Dr Joana de Deus Pereira https://www.rusi.org/people/de-deus-pereira, Christopher Hockey https://rusi.org/people/hockey , Michael Jones https://rusi.org/people/jones    Read RUSI’s paper, Conclusions Paper: Thematic Research Meeting on the Impacts of Disinformation Campaigns in the Sahel (Southern Neighbourhood) and Effects on Radicalisation and Extremist Movements in the EU: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/conclusions-paper-thematic-research-meeting-impacts-disinformation-campaigns-sahel-southern   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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