More or Less

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:40) First Minister John Swinney has claimed that Scottish pensioners are set to lose £2000, with the money going to fund English social care. We gently suggest he might like to consider the existence of the Barnett formula, and explain that, when you do, the picture looks very different.
(06:08 ) The Liberal Democrats have dug out data on maternity injuries that they claim is ‘a shocking indictment of our NHS maternity services’. We explore flaws in their analysis and ask an expert what a better source of data tells us about maternal healthcare.
(13:20) Professor Terence Tao is good at maths. Extremely good at maths. We ask him how he feels about AI being better at maths than him.
(15:49) Great news! The UK is reducing its deficit at the fastest rate of any G7 nation. Except we’re not. Ah, shame. But we are planning to! Fantastic! But we’ve got reason to be sceptical of these plans. That’s a pity. Join the FT’s Chris Giles on the economic and emotional rollercoaster that is the UK’s fiscal trajectory.
(21:14) The series reaches its intellectual zenith as we ask what would happen if you ‘put the whole of the country into baked beans’. Expect back of the tin workings, cutting edge agri-science research and true public service journalism. Just don’t ask what the nadir was.
Guests:
Dr Spencer Thompson - Senior Knowledge Exchange Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute
Professor Marian Knight - Director of the National Perinatal Epidemiology Unit at the University of Oxford
Chris Giles - Economics Commentator at the Financial Times
Professor Terence Tao - Professor of Mathematics at UCLA
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporters: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: James Beard

A viral video circulating online claims the population of China is actually a billion people lower than the UN and China say.
A billion is big number, you'd think the Chinese would notice if that many were missing - and the claim is certainly false.
However, as the team dug into the stats, a strange story emerged - which suggests the official data on births and fertility may not be quite as reliable as you might think.
We spoke to demographer Professor Sabu Padmadas from the University of Southampton to find out more.
If you spot a story you'd like us to dig into contact us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Sound Mix: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) Is the UK uniquely miserly when it comes to the state pension? That’s the story a viral social media post is telling - but have they adjusted to account for complicated structural differences between national systems? Reader, they have not.
(07:23) In a podcast feud nobody saw coming, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and Tucker Carlson recently locked horns over whether Russia or UK has a larger economy. Who's right? Only one person can possibly adjudicate this one: Duncan Weldon.
(15:06) What effect did this year’s heatwaves have on excess deaths? We analyse the mortality data and explore how, despite thousands of deaths associated with the heat, 2026 is so far setting a record low mortality rate.
(22:35) And finally, in an ‘and finally’ story to end all ‘and finally’ stories, we finally ask how many times the world population can fit into Loch Ness. And Lake Baikal. And, finally, the Caspian Sea.

Guests:
Heidi Karjalainen – Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Stuart McDonald – Partner and Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at consultancy firm Lane Clark & Peacock
Duncan Weldon – Economist and author of ‘Blood and Treasure: The Economics of Conflict from the Vikings to Ukraine’
Dr Keith Still – Director of Crowd Risk Analysis


Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Producers: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill, Kateryna Pavlyuk
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: James Beard
ARCHIVE: The Tucker Carlson Show, YouTube

How much could climate change cost the global economy?
That would be a very useful thing to know, and scientists have developed statistical models that they think can help give a reasonable answer.
These involve finding the patterns in economic data associated with temperature changes - and then applying them to the future changes that are predicted as the globe warms.
In 2024, a scientific paper was published that apparently offered the most accurate projection yet of that potential cost - analysing the impact of temperature on economic activity at a far more granular level than had been attempted before. The paper quickly became highly influential. And then at the end of 2025, it was retracted.
Why? It’s all got something to do with Uzbekistan. Solomon Hsiang, Professor of Global Environmental Policy at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, explains how he and his team identified the problem.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:40) Does the UK account for nine out of ten of the poorest regions in Northern Europe? It’s a classic story of devil meets detail where the true meaning is the geographical inequality we met along the way.
(07:54) An article in The Economist has claimed that a single donkey charity in Devon received more in annual donations than all the major political parties combined. Is this true? And if so, should we be Led by Donkeys?
(11:29) Last week 781 migrants crossed the channel in small boats in one day. Social media is keen to work out how much this might cost the UK economy. We put the numbers in context and ask Madeleine Sumption from the Migration Observatory about the fiscal impact of asylum seekers.
(21:38) A claim has been buzzing round the internet that bees could hold the secret to long life, but our team is sceptical. We deliver the statistical exposé of Big Honey that the mainstream media’s been too afraid to cover.
Guests:
Liam Sides, Associate Director at Oxford Economics’ Cities and Regions team
Dr Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford
Professor Dot Bennett, Professor of Cell Biology at City St. George's, University of London
Dr Ramsay Bowden, Consultant in Clinical Genetics at Cambridge University Hospitals
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Kateryna Pavlyuk
Producer: Nathan Gower
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: James Beard