The Fourcast

A $300bn plan to rebuild Iran. A ceasefire in the Middle East. And a new test for Donald Trump. But can this peace plan really work, and who is paying for it?
In this episode of The Fourcast: Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban examine the signals analysts are watching most closely after the Iran war - from the future of Iran’s economy and nuclear programme, to whether Israel will accept a new regional reality.
They’re joined by Channel 4 News Economics Editor Helia Ebrahimi to ask: who pays for Iran’s reconstruction? Can sanctions be lifted? What happens to the Gulf states? And does this mark a new balance of power in the Middle East?

A ceasefire has been announced between the US and Iran - but is this the end of the conflict, or just a pause before the next confrontation?
After days of missile strikes, threats and escalation, Donald Trump has celebrated the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and declared a diplomatic success. Iran says it has forced the US and Israel to accept defeat. Both sides claim victory - but who really got what they wanted?
On this episode of The Fourcast, we examine what the ceasefire means for Iran’s nuclear programme, Israel’s security calculations, and the wider balance of power in the Middle East.
Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Ali Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, former Israeli ambassador to Germany Jeremy Issacharoff, and Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum.

The World Cup has kicked off, with three red cards and a win for co-hosts Mexico while the USA face Paraguay later, but President Donald Trump is set not to attend America’s opening game. 
Before a ball was even kicked, this tournament wasn’t short of controversies, from strict border controls and eye-watering ticket prices to the prospect of two countries who are at war with each other playing a game of football. 
So, has the beautiful game’s biggest tournament become impossible to separate from global politics? Is this simply the reality of staging a World Cup across borders in an increasingly divided world - or are the doubters right that this World Cup could be spoiled by the drama off the pitch?
On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by our sports reporter Jordan Jarrett-Bryan, superfan Billy The Bee who is in Mexico right now and will head to America to follow England’s games and journalist Marcela Mora y Araujo.

While Washington insists pressure is working and Tehran claims resilience; attacks have continued, oil markets are moving, and ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz despite repeated warnings of disruption.
In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban unpack why oil prices haven’t exploded, whether Iran is losing one of its most powerful bargaining chips, and what the movement of ships in the Gulf tells us about what could happen next.
And what does the resignation of UK Defence Secretary John Healey tell us about how the UK is preparing for a more unstable world?
They’re joined by Yael Selfin, Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and Chief Economist at KPMG, to ask whether markets are underestimating the risks - and what this could mean for fuel prices, inflation and the wider economy.

The family of Stephen Ogilvie, the victim of the Belfast stabbing, has called for calm and said they don’t want the “terrible tragedy to be used to divide people or fuel hostility.”, as Sudanese national Hadi Alodid was charged with attempted murder, threats to kill an NHS radiographer and possession of a knife. 
Last night, violence spread across parts of Belfast, with police attacked, properties damaged and communities left on edge after a video of the attack was shared online. Politicians and police have pointed to the role of social media, misinformation and outside agitators. But what is really driving the disorder?
On this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long explores what's happening in Northern Ireland, why immigration has become such a political flashpoint, and whether far-right voices are helping fuel tensions online.
Jackie is joined by Allison Morris, Crime Correspondent at The Irish News, former Metropolitan Police officer Victor Olisa, and Robert Topinka, lecturer and researcher on far-right movements and online radicalisation.