Unsupervised Learning with Jacob Effron

Ari Morcos and Rob Toews return for their spiciest conversation yet. Fresh from NeurIPS, they debate whether models are truly plateauing or if we're just myopically focused on LLMs while breakthroughs happen in other modalities.They reveal why infinite capital at labs may actually constrain innovation, explain the narrow "Goldilocks zone" where RL actually works, and argue why U.S. chip restrictions may have backfired catastrophically—accelerating China's path to self-sufficiency by a decade. The conversation covers OpenAI's code red moment and structural vulnerabilities, the mystique surrounding SSI and Ilya's "two words," and why the real bottleneck in AI research is compute, not ideas.The episode closes with bold 2026 predictions: Rob forecasts Sam Altman won't be OpenAI's CEO by year-end, while Ari gives 50%+ odds a Chinese open-source model will be the world's best at least once next year. (0:00) Intro(1:51) Reflections on NeurIPS Conference(5:14) Are AI Models Plateauing?(11:12) Reinforcement Learning and Enterprise Adoption(16:16) Future Research Vectors in AI(28:40) The Role of Neo Labs(39:35) The Myth of the Great Man Theory in Science(41:47) OpenAI's Code Red and Market Position(47:19) Disney and OpenAI's Strategic Partnership(51:28) Meta's Super Intelligence Team Challenges(54:33) US-China AI Chip Dynamics(1:00:54) Amazon's Nova Forge and Enterprise AI(1:03:38) End of Year Reflections and Predictions With your co-hosts:@jacobeffron  - Partner at Redpoint, Former PM Flatiron Health@patrickachase  - Partner at Redpoint, Former ML Engineer LinkedIn@ericabrescia  - Former COO Github, Founder Bitnami (acq’d by VMWare)@jordan_segall  - Partner at Redpoint

Edwin Chen is the founder and CEO of Surge AI, the data infrastructure company behind nearly every major frontier model. Surge works with OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Google, providing the high-quality data and evaluation infrastructure that powers their models.  Edwin reveals why optimizing for popular benchmarks like LMArena is "basically optimizing for clickbait," how one frontier lab's models regressed for 6-12 months without anyone knowing, and why the industry's approach to measurement is fundamentally broken. Jacob and Edwin discuss what actually makes elite AI evaluators, why "there's never going to be a one size fits all solution" for AI models, and how frontier labs are taking surprisingly divergent paths to AGI. (0:00) Intro(0:56) The Pitfalls of Optimizing for LMArena(4:34) Issues with Data Quality and Measurement(9:44) The Importance of Human Evaluations(13:40) The Rise of RL Environments(17:21) Challenges and Lessons in Model Training(19:59) Silicon Valley's Pivot Culture(23:06) Technology-Driven Approach(24:18) Quality Beyond Credentials(27:51) Impact of Scale Acquisition(28:35) Hiring for Research Culture(30:48) Divergence in AI Training Paradigms(34:16) Future of AI Models(39:32) Multimodal AI and Quality(43:44) Quickfire With your co-hosts: @jacobeffron - Partner at Redpoint, Former PM Flatiron Health @patrickachase - Partner at Redpoint, Former ML Engineer LinkedIn @ericabrescia - Former COO Github, Founder Bitnami (acq’d by VMWare) @jordan_segall - Partner at Redpoint

This episode features Olivier Godement, Head of Product for Business Products at OpenAI, discussing the current state and future of AI adoption in enterprises, with a particular focus on the recent releases of GPT 5.1 and Codex. The conversation explores how these models are achieving meaningful automation in specific domains like coding, customer support, and life sciences: where companies like Amgen are using AI to accelerate drug development timelines from months to weeks through automated regulatory documentation. Olivier reveals that while complete job automation remains challenging and requires substantial scaffolding, harnesses, and evaluation frameworks, certain use cases like coding are reaching a tipping point where engineers would "riot" if AI tools were taken away. The discussion covers the importance of cost reduction in unlocking new use cases, the emerging significance of reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT) for frontier customers, and OpenAI's philosophy of providing not just models but reference architectures and harnesses to maximize developer success. (0:00) Intro(1:46) Discussing GPT-5.1(2:57) Adoption and Impact of Codex(4:09) Scientific Community's Use of GPT-5.1(6:37) Challenges in AI Automation(8:19) AI in Life Sciences and Pharma(11:48) Enterprise AI Adoption and Ecosystem(16:04) Future of AI Models and Continuous Learning(24:20) Cost and Efficiency in AI Deployment(27:10) Reinforcement Learning and Enterprise Use Cases(31:17) Key Factors Influencing Model Choice(34:21) Challenges in Model Deployment and Adaptation(38:29) Voice Technology: The Next Frontier(41:08) The Rise of AI in Software Engineering(52:09) Quickfire With your co-hosts: @jacobeffron - Partner at Redpoint, Former PM Flatiron Health @patrickachase - Partner at Redpoint, Former ML Engineer LinkedIn @ericabrescia - Former COO Github, Founder Bitnami (acq’d by VMWare) @jordan_segall - Partner at Redpoint

This week on Unsupervised Learning, Jacob Effron is joined by Jordan Schneider, host of China Talk, who challenges widespread assumptions about US-China AI competition. China's AI development is driven by private capital and market competition—not central government planning—with companies like DeepSeek, Alibaba, and ByteDance operating more like Silicon Valley startups than state projects. The critical bottleneck is compute: the West maintains a 10-15x advantage in advanced chips, and US export controls implemented one month before ChatGPT created a structural edge favoring America for years. Chinese companies aggressively open-source models from strategic necessity—they couldn't establish a quality gap justifying paid access like OpenAI. Jordan explains why the "Goldilocks strategy" of controlled chip dependency fails, why expert consensus opposes selling advanced semiconductors to China despite Nvidia's lobbying, and how Taiwan's invasion risk is driven more by domestic politics than AGI scenarios. China's real advantage may emerge in robotics manufacturing at scale, where they're already deploying while the US debates strategy. Inside the Politburo's AI Study Session: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/xi-takes-an-ai-masterclassSubmit your questions to Jacob here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1vHBYv0bTT_EgFWTjbKnLr_sn3pZnFmcFGWYVTltKEco/edit (0:00) Intro(1:45) The Chinese AI Ecosystem: Pre and Post ChatGPT(3:45) Government Influence and Private Sector Dynamics(6:40) Venture Funding and Major Players(8:36) Talent and International Collaboration(11:25) Open Source Models and Market Dynamics(15:24) What Role Does The Chinese Government Play?(31:17) US-China AI Policy and Strategic Competition(36:18) The Argument for Selling AI Accelerators(37:02) Risks of Not Selling to China(43:34) Technological Constraints and Huawei's Challenges(51:18) US-China Relations and Taiwan(1:02:46) Quickfire With your co-hosts: @jacobeffron - Partner at Redpoint, Former PM Flatiron Health @patrickachase - Partner at Redpoint, Former ML Engineer LinkedIn @ericabrescia - Former COO Github, Founder Bitnami (acq’d by VMWare) @jordan_segall - Partner at Redpoint

This episode features Dianne Na Penn, a senior product leader at Anthropic, discussing the launch of Claude Opus 4.5 and the evolution of frontier AI models. The conversation explores how Anthropic approaches model development—balancing ambitious capability roadmaps with user feedback, making strategic bets on areas like agentic coding and computer use while deliberately avoiding others like image generation. Dianne shares insights on the shifting nature of AI evaluation (moving beyond saturated benchmarks like SWE-bench toward more open-ended measures), the evolution of scaffolding from "training wheels" to intelligence amplifiers, and why she believes we're closer to transformative long-running AI than most people think. She also discusses Anthropic's distinctive culture of authenticity, the under appreciated benefits of model alignment for producing independent-thinking AI, and why the real bottleneck to AI agents isn't model capability anymore but product innovation. (0:00) Intro(0:57) Starting the Work on Opus 4.5(2:04) Model Capabilities and Surprises(5:59) Computer Use and Practical Applications(7:21) Pricing and Positioning(10:02) Customer Feedback and Early Access(16:44) The Reality of Enterprise Agents(18:47) Future of AI and Long-Running Intelligence(28:06) Anthropic's Culture and Decision Making(30:31) Key Decisions and Fun Moments(33:45) Quickfire With your co-hosts: @jacobeffron - Partner at Redpoint, Former PM Flatiron Health @patrickachase - Partner at Redpoint, Former ML Engineer LinkedIn @ericabrescia - Former COO Github, Founder Bitnami (acq’d by VMWare) @jordan_segall - Partner at Redpoint