Bankless

Bitcoin just broke its bearish market structure, but surging bond yields could still test the rally. Ryan and David unpack Uptober, Robinhood’s trading push, the Bitget hack, and prediction markets’ path to the Supreme Court.

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TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES

0:00 Intro

0:09 Bitcoin Breaks Bearish Structure

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin

https://x.com/hariskhantrader/status/2104621748591403035

6:35 Bond Yields, Liquidity & Macro Risk

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2105337195884052870

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-inflation-rises-less-than-expected-august-consumer-spending-surges-2026-09-30/

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2105355997892239838

https://x.com/EpsilonTheory/status/2105345560064745548

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-MOVE/

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2105279482957369587

22:06 Robinhood Goes All-In

https://x.com/fintechfrank/status/2105082039733305734

https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/2105062331436966323

https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/2105063773165818119

https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/2105072369509257220

https://robinhood.com/us/en/agents/

33:19 BitGet Hack & NEAR Permissionless Debate

https://www.theblock.co/news/business/bitget-starts-phased-withdrawal-resumption

https://x.com/AlexAuroraDev/status/2104554958754357482

https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/2104955420401955273

https://x.com/kylekrason/status/2104562944457740481

https://x.com/near_intents/status/2105642219357241796

44:23 Prediction Markets Head to Court

https://www.legalreader.com/new-york-sues-polymarket-over-gambling-rules/

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-appeals-court-rules-against-kalshi-says-states-can-regulate-prediction-2026-09-25/

https://www.coinbase.com/blog/coinbase-receives-cftc-approval-for-coinbase-clearing-llc

48:29 Ethereum’s Cryptographic World Computer

https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/2104160561374343176

https://x.com/cryptographicas/status/2104212366271390055

https://x.com/barnabemonnot/status/2104260847975707013

56:14 AI Agents & Bank Runs

https://x.com/JasonYanowitz/status/2104213040937812262

https://openai.com/index/introducing-dots/

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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:

https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

What if the next major onchain trading platform looks less like a crypto exchange and more like Robinhood with institutional liquidity underneath? Variational co-founder Lucas Schumann and Head of Product Justin Bram join David to unpack the broker model behind Variational, why they believe swaps can improve on perps for real-world assets, and how TradFi liquidity can be brought onchain without rebuilding every market from scratch.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Broker, Not Exchange
5:07 Why Brokerage Wins for Retail
8:22 What Is a Swap?
9:58 The Real Cost of Trading
11:43 Bringing TradFi Liquidity Onchain
14:44 Building Variational
23:14 From Crypto Traders to Everyone
26:42 The Next User Base
30:35 What Actually Happens Onchain?
34:00 Inside OLP
37:03 Arbitrum and User Funds
39:44 The VAR Token and 32% Airdrop
42:34 Funding the Token Model
44:11 The 2027 Roadmap
47:44 Protocol or Platform?

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RESOURCES

Lucas Schuermann
https://x.com/variational_lvs

Justin Bram
https://x.com/JustinCBram

Variational
https://www.variational.io/en

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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Ben Cowen is back on Bankless after publicly admitting one of his key Bitcoin calls was wrong. What changed? Ben and David unpack the breakout that challenged his bear-market thesis, whether the four-year cycle is still intact, why Bitcoin is shrugging off a macro environment Ben expected to pressure it, and the crucial difference between easier monetary policy and genuinely abundant global liquidity.

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https://thedefireport.io/bankless

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Ben Cowen Admits What He Got Wrong
3:30 Did the Bear Market End Too Easily?
6:06 Why This Bear Market Looks Different From 2022
9:59 Is the Four-Year Cycle Still Alive?
12:27 What an Early Low Means for the Next Bull Market
14:02 Why Altcoins Are Already Moving
19:15 Monetary Policy vs. Global Liquidity
22:56 Does Altseason Need a Crisis?
28:13 Why Liquidity Could Stay Tight
31:56 Can Bitcoin Catch Up to Stocks?
34:41 Five Years of Restrictive Conditions
37:27 Is Retail Finally Coming Back?
45:46 Bitcoin Defies the Macro Setup
48:47 The Weekly Bitcoin Close That Matters
53:43 Building a Conference Around Disagreement

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RESOURCES

Ben Cowen
https://x.com/benjamincowen

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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

The bull market may be back, but Bitcoin might not be leading it. Ryan and David break down the early-bull signals, Zcash and NEAR’s surge, rising yields, Kalshi’s wash-trading controversy, and BlackRock’s expanding crypto push.

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TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES

0:00 Intro

0:28 Early Bull Confirmed

https://thedefireport.io/research/early-bull-confirmed

https://x.com/benjamincowen/status/2102007452057079986

https://x.com/benjamincowen/status/2102572123185107151

https://x.com/saylor/status/2102011709808353551

13:23 New Bull Market Leaders

https://www.bankless.com/read/this-is-not-bitcoin-s-cycle

https://x.com/Delphi_Digital/status/2064430003731804517

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/zcash

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/near

https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/2100789397960704285

https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/2102787878552015357

https://x.com/CosimoCapital/status/2102886894115696978

33:18 Rising Yields & the Debasement Trade

https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2103118843061182872

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-US10Y/

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/KZYJV3ef/

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/shall-we-repeal-the-laws-of-economics---part-iii

42:29 Kalshi Wash Trading Drama

https://x.com/icobeast/status/2101358009477632410

https://x.com/beniduboss/status/2101459048247808010

https://news.kalshi.com/p/the-facts-behind-kalshi-s-perpetuals-volume

https://cointelegraph.com/news/kalshi-says-cftc-hasnt-contacted-it-over-unusual-5b-trading-activity

47:57 Vitalik Backs Trueo

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/true

https://trueo.com/

https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/2102143283493507554

https://x.com/Trueo_/article/2102123554162561272

54:37 New Tokens & Institutional Crypto Expansion

https://x.com/variational_io/status/2102929439063765192

https://x.com/Ondo/status/2103106602593087575

https://x.com/WSJmarkets/status/2103092730880569691

https://x.com/BlackRock/status/2102409739175141458

https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/whitepaper/the-machine-native-economy.pdf

https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-09-22-binance-takes-100-million-circle-stake-alongside-five-year-usdc-deal-416042

https://www.blockhead.co/2026/09/22/coinbase-opens-ipo-share-allocations-to-us-retail-customers-starting-with-smart-ring-maker-oura/

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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:

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Meme coins are back, but this time the more interesting story may be what they're building around them. David sits down with Eric and Andy to unpack the latest meme-coin cycle, the rise of stock-paired memes on Robinhood Chain, and the strange possibility that speculative trading could actually bootstrap liquidity for tokenized equities.

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https://thedefireport.io/bankless

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Meme Coins Are Back
5:47 Can Meme Markets Mature?
7:48 AI as a Safety Layer
13:10 Stock-Paired Meme Coins
17:01 Building Stronger Schelling Points
21:00 Will Public Companies Care?
28:56 The Community Takeover Scenario
32:18 Meme Coins as a Liquidity Engine
36:16 How Andy and Eric Use FOMO
42:39 What Signals Actually Matter
47:54 When Do You Sell a Loser?
52:26 FOMO Rewards and Public Trading Data
55:36 The $20K ETH Jinx

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RESOURCES

Andy 8052
https://x.com/andy8052

Eric Conner
https://x.com/econoar

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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures