In Moscow's Shadows

The talk of a military force provided by the 'Coalition of the Willing' to help secure Ukraine after a peace is a non-starter, not least as it would preclude any peace deal. But it's easy to snipe from the sidelines, so this episode I stick my neck out: what do I think would represent a credible security guarantee for Ukraine that would also permit a peace? Buckle in, it's a long and wonkish episode, but in many ways that's the point: deterrence works when credibility beats rhetoric, and no silver bullets here, just a web of bilateral and trilateral guarantees, decade-long funding lines, means of helping Ukrainians demonstrate their capacity to bloody Putin's nose in a rematch, and strategic clarityThe podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

Before the self-indulgence of a deep-dive into the rise and fall of the Chechen Lazanskaya Brigada in Moscow -- and why there are some worrying implications for the coming situation in Russia and Europe -- I look at recent developments: the appointment of Budanov as Zelensky's new chief of staff, the US operation in Venezuela, and recent drone strikes...The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

To end the year, instead of the grand sweep of geopolitics, let's look at a collection of people making the news, sometimes whether they like it or not.(PS: Listened to JD Vance at the Moscow Security Conference? A Freudian slip there -- of course, I meant Munich Security Conference!)And of course, as befits the last episode of the year, a little round up and thanks to everyone listening -- and doubly so, to my paying Patrons.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

Putin's latest marathon press conference/call-in show Itogi Goda ('Results of the Year'), once Direct Line, has become an annual ritual. 4.5 hours, 3M submitted questions, but what can we learn? Intransigence over Ukraine, attempts to talk up the economy, but a marked disconnect with a population that feels its social contract has been broken... and a president who felt just a little less grounded and focused than in the past. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

A demilitarised zone that invites armoured cars. A referendum that can’t be fairly run. A €210 billion pot that solves today’s bills but complicates tomorrow’s peace. We start with shuttle diplomacy and the hard edges of a potential DMZ in Donetsk. On paper it pauses the fight; in practice Rosgvardiya blurs policing and militarisation, turning “demilitarised” into a loophole big enough for armour. We then map the constitutional and moral traps around wartime elections or referendums, where occupied voters, blocked monitors and legal grey zones collide with Kyiv’s need to navigate Washington without capitulating.From there, we track Europe’s move to indefinitely freeze Russian sovereign assets and the push to spend them on Ukraine’s budget. It feels just and efficient, but invites Russian expropriations at home, lawfare against Euroclear, and counter‑seizures abroad. It also spends tomorrow’s reconstruction funds during the war, betting that weary voters will keep paying later. Meanwhile, Moscow counts manpower, energy pressure and US politics more than ledgers, so the deterrent effect may be modest.The Ben Aris article I mention is at: https://www.intellinews.com/commnet-the-eu-s-reparation-loan-vote-needs-to-fail-416078/?source=russia Finally, to a Paris restaurant where a row between Garry Kasparov and Vladimir Kara‑Murza exposed a deeper rift inside the exile opposition. PACE’s platform and its Berlin Declaration have elevated some factions while sidelining Navalny’s network, creating gatekeepers and fresh grievances. The result is predictable: public spats, claims of capture by donors, and propaganda gifts to the Kremlin. The uncomfortable truth remains that Russia’s future will be authored inside Russia; exiles matter most when they support rather than splinter the constituencies that still exist at home.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show