35 West

In early December, the European Union and Southern Common Market, better known as Mercosur, reached an agreement on a trade deal. This announcement represented the culmination of more than two decades of negotiations between the EU and Mercosur countries, which had progressed off and on since 1999. In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Lauri Tähtinen, a non-resident senior associate with CSIS. Together, they discuss the history of the agreement and why it has finally come to fruition, as well as some of the remaining disputes that could continue to threaten the deal. They also discuss the geopolitical implications, particularly with respect to China and the new U.S. administration, of what will be the largest free trade area in the world.

The re-election of President Donald Trump has sent reverberations throughout Mexico and Canada, the United States’ closest neighbors and largest trading partners. Of particular concern is Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican exports into the United States, a threat which will undoubtedly color U.S. relations with its two neighbors and provides an insight into the likely directions of a Trump administration trade policy, which will emphasize striking an accord on sensitive issues like trade deficits, migration and border security, and defense.  In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Dr. Meredith Lilly, Professor and Simon Reisman Chair in International Economic Policy at Carleton University and former Foreign Affairs and International Trade Advisor to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Together, they discuss the state of U.S.-Canada relations and how they are likely to evolve under the Trump administration. They also delve into the ways North America as a whole may be impacted, and the future of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement which Trump helped negotiate in his first term.

This episode of 35 West originally aired on May 16, 2024. Following recent announcements that the incoming Trump Administration would consider tariffs on Mexico and Canada unless the two countries act to stop the flow of illegal drugs and irregular migration, many of the topics discussed have only grown in relevance. In 2023, U.S. trade with Mexico grew to nearly $800 billion, leading Mexico to surpass both Canada and China as the United States’ number one trading partner. While U.S.-Mexico trade has long been a pillar of North American economic competitiveness, Washington’s efforts to move trade away from China in favor of nearshoring and friendshoring in the Western Hemisphere, coupled with the advantages of a modernized trade agreement in the form of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has underpinned this increase in bilateral trade and investment. At the same time, Chinese investment in Mexico has skyrocketed, with estimates finding that in 2022 Chinese foreign direct investment in Mexico was more than double that of 2018. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Kenneth Smith Ramos, Chief Trade Negotiator for Mexico from 2017 to 2018 and one of the architects of USMCA. Together, they discuss the evolution of USMCA since its entry into force in 2020, with a focus on the recent surge of Chinese investment in Mexico, understanding the nature of this investment, as well as the potential challenges it may present. They also discuss the upcoming 2026 Joint Review of the agreement, and what can be done by all three countries to lay the groundwork for a more constructive session.

Bound together by tight trade links, cultural ties, as well as mutual defense partnerships like NATO and NORAD, the U.S.-Canada relationship has deep roots. However, the relationship is not without its challenges, especially as Canada appears to drag its feet on U.S. requests that it scale up defense spending to meet rising global security challenges. One area where the United States and Canada could nevertheless find fertile ground for greater cooperation however is on securing mineral supply chains. In this episode, Henry Ziemer sits down with Abigail Hunter, Executive Director of the Center for Critical Mineral Strategy at SAFE. Together, they discuss the state of U.S.-Canada cooperation on critical minerals projects, lingering obstacles, and the kinds of incentives needed to galvanize greater supply chain security. They also discuss how the two countries can work together to effectively push back against China's domination of mineral refining and processing infrastructure.