The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

As our governments, institutions, and the public become more aware of the increasing pressures on material and energy availability, we've simultaneously seen powerful ripple effects for industrial policy, economic planning, and geopolitical dynamics. Parallel to this story are evolving strategies unique to each nation as new lines of power emerge alongside the trends of artificial intelligence, competing demands for rare earth metals, and an increasingly unstable global power balance that underpins all of it. How have these seemingly disparate factors combined to influence recent international events – and how can understanding them help us forecast the future of global governance and power? 
In this episode, Nate is joined by financial and economic analysts, Craig Tindale and Michael Every, to discuss the widespread implications of growing geopolitical tensions over scarce resources and the rapidly changing foreign policy and economic statecraft that countries are implementing in response. Importantly, Craig and Michael emphasize the centrality of China and the U.S. as the two superpowers reshaping global alliances, and how industrial capacity and material constraints underpin each move made in their pursuit for dominance. Ultimately, they emphasize the need for clarity and realignment of the goals for economic and industrial policy as we leave behind the era of growth and grapple with a simplifying world.
What can the long overlooked story of rare earth metals, energy resources, and industrial capacity tell us about ongoing geopolitical events? How might continued AI development play a key role in the future of economic statecraft and the international balance of power? And finally, how should we re-think what economic growth actually serves in an era of resource constraints, geopolitical competition, and ecological crisis? In other words, what is GDP truly for? (And what is GPT really for?)
 
About Craig Tindale:
Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in East-to-West supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies. 
He's now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships. 
 
About Michael Every:
Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank Singapore analyzing major developments and key thematic trends, especially on the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and markets. He is frequently published and quoted in financial media, is a regular conference keynote speaker, and was invited to present to the 2022 G-20 on the current global crisis. 
Michael has over two decades of experience working as an Economist and Strategist. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.
 
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In this week's Frankly, Nate explores the growing sense that many people feel disoriented and overwhelmed in a world increasingly saturated with digital content. Constant exposure to headlines, hot takes, summaries, and algorithm-driven feeds can erode our sense of clarity rather than strengthen it. The rapid rise of artificial intelligence has served to dramatically increase the speed of information production while also eroding accuracy, making it difficult to differentiate between content that simply sounds confident and content that's actually grounded in reality.
Nate draws a parallel between today's information ecosystem and the modern industrial food system – just like fossil fuels helped create an abundance of cheap, calorie-dense but nutrient-poor food, AI may create an abundance of information that is fast and persuasive, yet has little "nourishment." In a world where digital tools increasingly do more of our thinking for us, Nate grapples with how to prevent cognitive atrophy and filter the flood of content we likely will face in coming months/years.
How can we be rich in information and yet poor in wisdom? Why is it important for us to be able to tell the difference between content that's engineered for engagement and content that genuinely improves our judgement and our lives? Finally, what daily practices might help us stay grounded as AI increasingly reshapes our cognitive environment?
(Recorded February 25th, 2026)
 
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Humans aren't rational. We don't evaluate facts objectively; instead, we interpret them through our biases, experiences, and backgrounds. What's more, we're psychologically motivated to reject or distort information that threatens our identity or worldview – even if it's scientifically valid. Add to that our modern media landscape where everyone has a different source of "truth" for world events, our ability to understand what is actually true is weaker than ever. How, then, can we combat misinformation when simply presenting the facts is no longer enough – and may even backfire?
In this episode, Nate is joined by John Cook, a researcher who has spent nearly two decades studying science communication and the psychology of misinformation. John shares his journey from creating the education website Skeptical Science in 2007 to his shocking discovery that his well-intentioned debunking efforts might have been counterproductive. He also discusses the "FLICC" framework – a set of five techniques (Fake experts, Logical fallacies, Impossible expectations, Cherry picking, and Conspiracy theories) that cut across all forms of misinformation, from the denial of global heating to vaccine hesitancy, and more. Additionally, John's research reveals a counterintuitive truth: our tribal identities matter more than our political beliefs in determining what science we accept – yet our aversion to being tricked is bipartisan. 
When it comes to reaching a shared understanding of the world, why does every conversation matter – regardless of whether it ends in agreement? When attacks on science have shifted from denying findings to attacking solutions and scientists themselves, are we fighting yesterday's battle with outdated communication strategies? And while we can't eliminate motivated reasoning (to which we're all susceptible), how can we work around it by teaching people to recognize how they're being misled, rather than just telling them what to believe?
 
About John Cook:
John Cook is a Senior Research Fellow at the Melbourne Centre for Behaviour Change at the University of Melbourne. He is also affiliated with the Center for Climate Change Communication as adjunct faculty. In 2007, he founded Skeptical Science, a website which won the 2011 Australian Museum Eureka Prize for the Advancement of Climate Change Knowledge and 2016 Friend of the Planet Award from the National Center for Science Education. John also created the game Cranky Uncle, combining critical thinking, cartoons, and gamification to build resilience against misinformation, and has worked with organizations such as Facebook, NASA, and UNICEF to develop evidence-based responses to misinformation.
John co-authored the college textbooks Climate Change: Examining the Facts with Weber State University professor Daniel Bedford. He was also a coauthor of the textbook Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis and the book Climate Change Denial: Heads in the Sand. Additionally, in 2013, he published a paper analyzing the scientific consensus on climate change that has been highlighted by President Obama and UK Prime Minister David Cameron. He also developed a Massive Open Online Course in 2015 at the University of Queensland on climate science denial, that has received over 40,000 enrollments.
 
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This week's Frankly is another edition of Nate's Wide Boundary News series, where he invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. Today's edition features reflections on renewable energy and CO2 emission trends, updates on species adaptability, and a discussion about nuclear treaties and Iran. Nate ties each topic to the larger story of the Great Simplification, updating listeners on what pathways might be available to pursue the long-term stability of humanity in the biosphere. 
What does ecological simplification teach us about resilience in human systems? When we celebrate "progress" in the form of rising renewable energy or flattening emissions, where might we be ignoring hidden system-level costs? And how has repeated exposure to "contained" geopolitical conflict changed our collective perception of risk, particularly in the West?
(Recorded February 22nd, 2026)
 
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In this week's Frankly, Nate looks at how aggregate human behavior changes as groups scale from small tribes to large and complex societies. He uses the framing of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde throughout the episode to illustrate how traits that once helped small groups survive can serve to destabilize complex societies when expanded globally. Rather than a moral failing of the human species, he frames the more-than-human predicament as a predictable outcome that emerges when human instincts operate at large scales.
Nate also walks through the layers that make up the reality we experience. He starts with the major symptoms that increasingly draw our attention today like global heating, biodiversity loss, and geopolitical tensions. He then emphasizes that these surface problems are driven by recurring systemic patterns, which are kept in place by society-scale driving forces. The episode closes by asking the audience to reflect on what responsibility and agency look like in a world where powerful incentives shape collective outcomes.
Where do we see societal thresholds when scale removes the natural limits that once kept us in balance? How can we be aware of reinforcing deeper societal forces while trying to solve for symptoms? And if our instincts helped us survive in the past, what might a system that works to balance human nature and biophysical reality look like?
(Recorded February 11th, 2026)
 
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