The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is often seen as the problematic byproduct of modern lifestyles that threatens our planet's stability – at least within conversations among environmentalists. But this perspective overlooks the fundamental role of CO2 in everything on Earth, from the food we eat to the houses we live in to our bodies themselves. Despite this reality, the carbon cycle as we know it has been interrupted in ways never before seen in Earth's history. How could understanding the deep history of CO2, as well as humanity's relationship with this controversial and vital molecule, help us prepare for the planetary changes ahead? 
In this episode, Nate is joined by science journalist Peter Brannen, who reframes CO2 from an industrial pollutant to a miraculous substance whose critical role within the carbon cycle makes Earth habitable. Peter traces our planet's history through the lens of CO2, including mass extinctions, Snowball Earth events, and the surprisingly stable Holocene period that has cradled human civilization. Peter also addresses humanity's current impact on the carbon cycle, the complexity and resilience of Earth's ecosystems, and the challenges we face as we push climate systems we don't fully understand into unknown territory.
How is the carbon cycle unexpectedly connected to the origins of oxygen, dozens of major and minor mass extinctions, and even the beginning of civilizations? How do humanity's current CO2 emissions compare to those of Earth's past? And could understanding the deep time of geology inspire both cosmic wonder and precautionary action, subsequently pushing us towards better decisions for the future?
(Conversation recorded on September 23rd, 2025)

 
About Peter Brannen:
Peter Brannen is an award-winning science journalist and contributing writer at The Atlantic, with particular interests in geology, ocean science, deep time, and the carbon cycle. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, Wired, Aeon, The Boston Globe, Slate and The Guardian among other publications. His book, The Story of CO2 is the Story of Everything, was published earlier this year by Ecco, who also published his previous book, The Ends of the World, about the five major mass extinctions in Earth's history.
Peter was a 2023 visiting scholar at the Kluge Center at the Library of Congress, and is an affiliate at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado-Boulder. He was formerly a 2018 Scripps Fellow at CU-Boulder, a 2015 journalist-in-residence at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center at Duke University, and a 2011 Ocean Science Journalism Fellow at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, MA. His essays have been featured in the Best American Science and Nature Writing series and in The Climate Book by Greta Thunberg.
 
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This week's Frankly is another edition of Nate's Wide Boundary News series, where he invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. Today's edition features reflections on a new peak in crude oil production, the growth of non-dispatchable electricity, and a report recently released by the World Economic Forum assessing global risks. Nate ties each topic to the larger story of the Great Simplification, updating listeners on what pathways might be available to pursue the long-term stability of humanity in the biosphere. 
What factors have contributed to the new peak in oil production? How does dispatchability play into the current electricity landscape? And when global experts outline the future risks facing our world, who do we call on for action today? 
(Recorded February 4th, 2026)
 
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This week's Frankly unpacks humans' current identification with the label "consumer." Consumption is something much deeper and more nuanced than shopping or spending. Nate highlights the ways that it shows up across our whole lives – from basic needs and stability to status and mental escape. He outlines a "consumption pyramid" framework that acts as a map for the different layers of consumption present in daily life, emphasizing that they vary in dependency, reliability, and necessity.
This episode also explores why this understanding is especially relevant in a world that will be increasingly volatile, expensive, and uncertain. In the energetically-intensive reality we have lived in for the past few decades, it has been easy to drift to the top of the consumption pyramid without even really choosing to. This has made us increasingly dependent on systems that reliably provide us comfort and convenience. Rather than taking some sort of moral high ground on consumption, Nate aims to invite listeners to pay closer attention to their own patterns of consumption. He analyzes habits that could support stability, and how listeners might intentionally simplify before external circumstances force the issue – mirroring the taking stock he's doing in his own life.
Where in your life do you feel most dependent on things always being fast, easy, and available? What kinds of consumption actually make you feel better afterward, not just distracted in the moment? Finally, if you stopped thinking of yourself primarily as a consumer, which other roles – maker, neighbor, caretaker, citizen – do you think would come most clearly into focus?
(Recorded February 1, 2026)
 
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Collapse has long been discussed in the public imagination as something that happens suddenly, immediately turning the world upside down. But history shows that collapse is more often characterized by the slow unraveling of a civilization. Usually, this is due to some combination of resource scarcity, economic stagnation, and compounding disruptions to productive capacity – yet it's barely perceptible in the day-to-day lives of the people within it. What are the signs that we could be living through such a moment right now, and if we are, how does history tell us to prepare for what's to come? 
Today, Nate is joined by Balázs Matics, the author of the popular Substack blog The Honest Sorcerer, to explore the systemic reasons behind civilization's potential collapse, the importance of energy security, and the growing effects of geopolitical instability. Balázs emphasizes the overlooked importance of industrial inputs such as diesel fuel, and the implications of this as more parts of the world face resource scarcities. Together, they also discuss the possibilities of more localized production and communities rooted in compassion and cooperation as ways to navigate a post-growth future.
As economic, geopolitical, and resource issues become more pressing, what will this mean for the future of environmental concerns such as global heating? What economic and industrial signals should governments actually be paying attention to in order to understand the health of a society? Finally, how can the humans paying attention to this story open up discourse where they live and start sowing the seeds of more resilient communities, even as the web of global complexity unravels? 
 
About Balázs Matics:
Balázs Matics is the author of the Substack blog The Honest Sorcerer where he writes on the topics of energy, economics, industrial materials, and other matters relevant to the future of civilization. He is located in Eastern Europe, where he is an industrial product engineer by training and has two decades of experience in manufacturing, supply chain, and project management at various multinational corporations. Having been involved in a number of international projects and after completing a 2 year post-graduate leadership program in supply chain and logistics, he has developed a unique understanding of the interconnected nature of our world and technologies.
 
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Last week there was so much news Nate recorded two Franklies – this is the second of those, which shares his reflections on a recent seminal essay posted by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, likening Artificial Intelligence as a "rite of passage" for the human species rather than just a narrow technological breakthrough. Amodei posits the possibility that we are now in what Carl Sagan once called a phase of "technological adolescence," wherein humans' technologies and tools become powerful enough to reshape or destabilize civilization faster than our collective wisdom can keep up. As a civilizational force, AI doesn't automatically act as humanity's salvation or catastrophe – it acts as a mirror that reflects the maturity (or immaturity) of the humans – and systems – deploying it.
In this episode, Nate then widens the boundaries of the AI conversation to incorporate the biophysical reality and institutional systems that support these technologies, emphasizing energy, materials, infrastructure, governance, and incentives as the real limiting factors and alignment challenges. By incorporating the deeper structures that shape societal outcomes in this dialogue, he raises questions about how the assumption of shared goals like growth and optimization might steer AI towards outcomes that undermine ecological and social stability.
What will it mean in biophysical terms if we introduce near-limitless cognitive power into a world already constrained by energy and materials? Is it possible for societies to build the wisdom, restraint, and governance needed to survive the "technological adolescence" of AI? And if "intelligence" becomes cheap and abundant with AI expansion, how might that impact humans' shared semblances of values, goals, and definitions of success?
(Recorded January 29, 2026)
 
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