The Iran Breakdown with Mark Dubowitz

We’re marking one year of The Iran Breakdown by bringing you a special conversation from our sister FDD podcast.
In this episode of Foreign Podicy, host Cliff May sits down with Mark Dubowitz to unpack a question at the core of this show: what the Islamic Republic actually believes — and how it has waged war on the United States and its allies since 1979.
It’s a conversation about ideology, strategy, and a threat too often misunderstood.
If you want to understand the regime in order to make sense of the war, start here.

The regime is down — but it's not out. So... what does collapse actually look like? Not strikes... Not decapitations... The moment the regime loses control. Mark asks Ray Takeyh and Reuel Marc Gerecht to answer the only question that matters now: Are we close to the breaking point? If not, how do we close that gap?

The U.S. and Israel again struck deep inside Iran. The Supreme Leader is dead. The region is on edge. The question is no longer whether this is war — but how long will it last and what will be the impact.
The conflict has now spread far beyond Tehran’s borders: Hezbollah rockets have drawn Israel into full-blown engagements across Lebanon, Gulf states have condemned Iranian aggression as they reel from missile and drone salvos, and intelligence agencies warn of expanded retaliatory attacks against the United States and its allies.
On the streets and in the corridors of power, tectonic shifts are underway. Regional capitals brace for wider war, global energy markets react at threats to closing the Strait of Hormuz and attacks against oil infrastructure, and governments from Islamabad to London confront unrest and diplomatic peril.
The Iran Breakdown host Mark Dubowitz is joined by Eli Lake to assess the battlefield, the intelligence as we know it, and the stakes. Is the regime collapsing — or will it whether this confrontation as it has in the past? What comes next for the Iranian people, for Israel, for the region, and for the United States?
Eli's latest
The Breaking History podcast
March 2, 2026 | The Free Press | J.D. Vance’s Iran Dilemma
February 28, 2026 | The Free Press | Trump Keeps His Promise to Iran—and Takes a Big Gamble

Bonus Episode of The Iran Breakdown: Mark Dubowitz joins FDD's Jonathan Schanzer and Rich Goldberg for a late night FDD SITREP following the death of Khamenei.
---
In the early hours of February 28, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against the Iranian regime—Washington calling it “Operation Epic Fury,” Israel calling it “Operation Lion’s Roar.” Strikes hit sites across Iran, targeting ballistic missile infrastructure, IRGC facilities, intelligence headquarters, and senior regime leadership.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead. President Trump confirmed his elimination on February 28: “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead.” U.S. officials told Fox News that the strikes were moved up after intelligence revealed Khamenei and dozens of senior Iranian officials were meeting at his compound. Among those killed: Defense Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani, IRGC Chief Mohammad Pakpour, Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, and multiple other senior military and intelligence figures.
Iran has retaliated. A ballistic missile penetrated Israeli air defenses and struck a residential building in central Tel Aviv, killing at least one woman. Over 200 missiles and drones were fired at Israel and U.S. bases across the region—striking the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and causing casualties in Dubai and Syria. Regional governments have condemned Iran’s strikes in the strongest terms.
Inside Iran, the response is electric. Videos show Iranians cheering in the streets. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has called on the armed forces to defect and urged citizens to prepare to mobilize. The opposition is deploying secure communications, satellite broadcasts, and hacked regime infrastructure to sustain the moment. The regime is decapitated. The question now is whether it falls.
To assess fast-moving developments and their strategic implications, FDD hosts a timely SITREP moderated by FDD Executive Director and host of the FDD Morning Brief Jonathan Schanzer, featuring FDD CEO and host of The Iran Breakdown Mark Dubowitz, and FDD Senior Advisor and former White House National Security Council director Richard Goldberg.

The U.S. and Israel have conducted joint military action against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Dubbed "Operation Epic Fury" by Washington and "Lion's Roar" by Jerusalem, the strikes were launched on February 28 after nuclear negotiations with the regime failed to yield progress. President Trump stated that U.S. objectives are to "defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime." Key targets included the office compound of Supreme Leader Khamenei, the Ministries of Intelligence and Defense, and the Parchin military complex, with additional strikes on regime targets in Isfahan, Tabriz, and Bandar Abbas.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu framed the operation's objectives as removing the "existential threat" posed by the Islamic Republic and creating conditions for the Iranian people to achieve regime change—calling on Persians, Kurds, Azeris, Baloch, and Ahwazi alike to "cast off the yoke of tyranny."
Iran has retaliated with ballistic missile strikes targeting U.S. bases and allies across the region, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Israel, and Bahrain—where a missile struck a facility affiliated with the U.S. Navy 5th Fleet.
Today, Iran is entering a decisive phase—where economic collapse, mass unrest, and direct military pressure are converging faster than at any point since 1979. As long as theocratic extremists rule in Iran, the Middle East will remain a factory for terror, missiles, and nuclear blackmail. These strikes have sharpened urgent questions about what comes next—for the regime, the Iranian people, and regional stability.
To assess fast-moving developments and their strategic implications, FDD will host a timely SITREP moderated by FDD CEO and host of The Iran Breakdown Mark Dubowitz, featuring FDD Executive Director and host of the FDD Morning Brief Jonathan Schanzer and FDD Senior Fellow and former IDF international spokesperson Jonathan Conricus.