Win-Win with Liv Boeree

• #39 - Daniel Kokotajlo - Wargames, Superintelligence & Quitting OpenAI

  AI is developing at breakneck speed—but are we properly prepared for what’s coming? To explore this question Igor and I grabbed leading AI researcher and forecaster Daniel Kokotajlo for a conversation about why he left OpenAI, what's right and wrong with their company culture, and how tabletop wargames are one of the best tools we have to prepare for AGI and superintelligence in the current hyper-competitive environment. Learn how these simulations—often used by militaries—can help us better forecast the geopolitical and technical dynamics of AI development, and why so many of them end with one person taking over the world. The gang also explore the challenges of AI alignment, incentive structures and reasons for hope. And of course, lots of predictions. Win-Win!Chapters0:00 - Intro01:06 - AI Wargame & Superintelligence05:15 - Resigning from OpenAI09:15 - That Non-Disparagement Clause & His Equity12:50 - Could OpenAI's behavior be Justified?20:50 - Governance in a world with AGI23:49 - Grading Daniel's AI predictions31:37 - Hyperstition yay or nay?38:09 - AI war games46:50 - AI deception and misalignment53:27 - More AI war games1:03:16 - Common sense AI policies1:23:01 - Science Fiction1:27:12 - Rapid fire predictionsLinks : ♾️ Daniel's new Predictions : https://ai-2027.com♾️ His Historic predictions : https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like♾️ AI - Futures: https://ai-futures.org ♾️ Time Article on Daniel : https://time.com/7086285/ai-transparency-measures/ ♾️ Professional Wargaming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_wargaming ♾️ UN Pandemic Exercise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174&list=PL9-oVXQX88esnrdhaiuRdXGG7XOVYB9Xm&index=2 ♾️ Leopold Aschenbrenner’s “Situational Awareness”: https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf ♾️ Daniel’s X: https://x.com/DKokotajlo Credits♾️ Hosted by Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov♾️ Edited and Mixed by Jackson Page♾️ Produced by Luca de VicoThe Win-Win PodcastPoker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins.Podcast links♾️ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWgq0OZMtwtOIyMsVM_vksqdfWcM-b68S ♾️ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/03bGVUaFZmJUmEvSHNDPdI?si=64379cc23696454f ♾️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-win-with-liv-boeree/id1724791350 ♾️ Pocketcast: https://play.pocketcasts.com/podcasts/7f708340-d17c-013b-f46e-0acc26574db2 #winwinpodcast #ai #openai

  --------  

  1:33:03
• #38 - Manu Meel - Healing Political Polarization

  Protests, lock-ins, encampments…the culture on university campuses is certainly fraught these days! As political discourse worsens among young people, I couldn’t think of anyone better to explore this issue with than Manu Meel. Manu is the founder and CEO of Bridge USA; a movement to help students and other young people engage in constructive dialogue and disagreement to improve the quality of politics and democracy, and in this conversation we hear his powerful journey from pre-med student to leading one of the most influential youth organizations in America.Chapters :00:00 - Intro01:35 - What Is Bridge USA07:19 - Understanding The Social Divide19:03 - What A Classic Bridge Session Looks Like25:35 - Who Attends Bridge Sessions33:24 - Incentivizing Understanding40:21 - Managing Bad Faith Actors47:24 - Movement Building52:23 - Where Zero Sum Can Be Positive58:16 - Changes On Campuses Since Trump Election01:02:35 - Ten Percent Problem01:06:33 - What Would A Social Media Redesign Look Like01:18:03 - Bridging The Political Divide In Government01:23:42 - Manu’s MindsetLinks: BridgeUSA: https://bridgeusa.org 2017 Berkeley protests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Berkeley_protests Why Bother Bridging Differences in College, Anyway?: https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/why_bother_bridging_differences_in_college_anyway What students really think about cancel culture: https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2022/02/college-campus-free-speech-cancel-culture/621484/ Manu X: https://x.com/manumeel_?lang=en Forbes Profile: https://www.forbes.com/profile/manu-meel/The Coddling of the American Mind:https://www.amazon.com/Coddling-American-Mind-Intentions-Generation/dp/0141986301?tag=googhydr-20&source=dsa&hvcampaign=books&gclid=Cj0KCQjws-S-BhD2ARIsALssG0bzR-EjXTbiUf1i4UBiffPJvMi5IfpxEK6n6J6m049zsbW5nVKOYeMaAjVvEALw_wcB Credits:♾️  Hosted by Liv Boeree♾️  Edited and Mixed by Jackson Page♾️  Produced by Luca de VicoThe Win-Win Podcast:Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins.Podcast links:♾️ Youtube:   • Win-Win with Liv Boeree  ♾️ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/03bGVUaFZmJUmEvSHNDPdI?si=64379cc23696454f ♾️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-win-with-liv-boeree/id1724791350 ♾️ Pocketcast: https://play.pocketcasts.com/podcasts/7f708340-d17c-013b-f46e-0acc26574db2 

  --------  

  1:29:42
• #37 - Tim Urban - Beating Procrastination, Parenthood, and Politics

  In this episode of the Win Win Podcast, Liv and Igor sit down with Wait But Why creator Tim Urban to explore everything from his unexpected pet tortoise, Winston, to the mind-bending implications of superintelligent AI.We hear about his latest foray into book writing, and how he’s structured his workflow to overcome his damn procrastination monkey. The crew also discuss such classics as free will, parenthood and the current state of (un) freedom of speech in the UK. Fun stuff.Chapters:0:00 - Intro1:27 - Book Writing11:33 - Thoughts On Free Will15:54 - Liv & Tim's Wager34:26 - Systems for Work, Life and Progress37:52 - Parenthood43:02 - Picking the Right Life Partner48:47 - That Bloody Heat Map1:00:38 - Political Changes and Currents1:15:07 - UK Political Degradation1:22:40 - Surveillance and Government Overreach1:33:17 - Rapid Fire PredictionsLinks:♾️ Wait But Why Blog: https://waitbutwhy.com ♾️ What's our problem? Book: https://waitbutwhy.com/whatsourproblem ♾️ Heat Map study : https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12227-0 ♾️ Apple pulls data protection feature in UK : https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-removing-end-to-end-cloud-encryption-feature-uk-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-02-21/Credits♾️ Hosted by Liv Boeree♾️ Edited and Mixed by Jackson Page♾️ Produced by Luca de VicoThe Win-Win Podcast: Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins.

  --------  

  1:36:46
• #00 - Daniel Schmachtenberger - AI, Capitalism, Misalignment & Moloch

  A deep dive into the game theory and exponential growth underlying our modern economic system, and how recent advancements in AI are poised to turn up the pressure on that system -- and our wider environment -- in ways we have never seen before. Not a conversation for the faint hearted, but crucial nonetheless. Daniel Schmachtenberger is a founding member of The Consilience Project, a research organization aimed at improving public sense-making around global catastrophic risks and technology. This conversation is the first episode of the Win-Win Podcast, which explores healthier ways to harness the power of competition.Chapters:00:00 - Introduction02:17 - Moloch Framework12:16 - Meta Crisis26:48 - Bad People or Bad System?31:09 - Capitalism & Moloch40:08 - Misalignment51:31 - Incentive Pressures Driving Misalignment57:58 - Moloch Driving AI Development01:00:50 - AI Risks Pre AGI01:07:31 - AI Accelerates Existing Systemic Issues01:15:35 - Social Media01:19:07 - Alternative Goals01:23:56 - Cooperation on AI01:28:16 - Call to ActionDaniel's Links♾️ The Consilience Project: https://consilienceproject.org♾️ Green Pill | The Metacrisis:    • The Metacrisis with Daniel Schmachten...  ♾️ Bend Not Break series |    • Daniel Schmachtenberger “Bend Not Bre...  ♾️ Meditations on Moloch by SlateStarCodex: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/ ♾️ The Win-Win Podcast:Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins.

  --------  

  1:30:03
• #36 - Bill Perkins - Space and The Future of Satellite Imaging

  In this episode of the Win-Win podcast we are floating off the coast of Starbase, watching the live launch of Starship 6 with Bill Perkins. Bill is a founder of two satellite imaging companies that aim to address environmental issues by making satellite data—once inaccessible to the public—widely available, revolutionizing everything from climate monitoring to illegal fishing enforcement. We also see a rocket launch, and Liv cries (again). Something for everyone. Chapters: 00:00 - Intro 2:17 - Launch 4:30 - Short Term Benefits of Space 5:56 - Unleashing the hive mind 6:40 - Hyperspectral 8:57 - Restrictions and Regulations on Imaging 11:30 - Use Cases 13:59 - How to Preserve Privacy? 16:40 - The Future of Satellite Imaging 20:53 - Rapid Fire Predictions Credits: ♾️ Hosted by Liv Boeree ♾️ Edited and Mixed by Jackson Page ♾️ Produced by Luca de Vico The Win-Win Podcast: Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins.

  --------  

  24:21

More Science podcasts

Trending Science podcasts

About Win-Win with Liv Boeree