THE DAILY BLAST with Greg Sargent

Donald Trump’s ceasefire deal with Iran has now been released, and it confirms what we all expected: He got nothing of any significance. A surprising number of his allies agree. Fox News figures, visibly angry and rattled, are saying the deal “doesn’t feel like a victory,” that “we lost the most,” and that Iran is “better off” than before. Others are already throwing JD Vance under the bus, with one even suggesting the deal is so bad that it let Trump down. We think the story right now is that if anything, the next stage of the negotiations with Iran will be even worse for Trump. We talked to Sina Toossi, an Iran expert at the Center for International Policy. He walks us through the details of the deal, why it falls short of what Barack Obama got, why the criticism from allies creates a tough situation for Trump, and how his failures have created a new geopolitical reality—one that’s worse for America than before. 
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Sources tell Axios that U.S. intelligence agencies seriously doubt that Iran will make the concessions on its nuclear program that Donald Trump expects it to once talks on it progress in earnest. The leaks are striking: They reflect badly on Trump’s ceasefire with Iran and his claims that he prevailed on Iran to drop its nuclear ambitions. Tellingly, the sources also report that JD Vance was a vocal proponent of the deal during internal discussions. This strongly suggests Vance is getting shivved: He’s getting set up to bear the blame if the deal goes south. There’s lots of other evidence of this, too: Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, is vocally describing Vance as the deal’s “architect.” Graham, an Iran hawk, expects Iran to not comply on nukes and clearly wants Vance to get blamed for it. We talked to New Republic contributing editor Virginia Heffernan, a sharp observer of MAGA turmoil. We discuss why Vance is so vulnerable to being shivved on Iran, why this is likely to tarnish his presidential ambitions, and how MAGA will reckon with all this as Trump’s influence wanes. 
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Now that Donald Trump has reached a ceasefire with Iran, the scrutiny of it has been brutal, making it obvious that he got nothing of significance. In a rambling monologue to reporters, Trump excoriated Barack Obama’s Iran deal for making billions in funding available to the Iranians. But this is actually a self-own: Trump’s own arrangement uses a very similar mechanism, opening up funds as an incentive to get Iran to agree to constraints on its nuclear program later. As Tom Nichols, a staff writer at The Atlantic, says on today’s episode, Trump is “doing it exactly the way Obama did it.” And that’s after Trump also waged a needless war that cost us tens of billions of dollars, depleted our stockpiles, killed some Americans and many Iranians, strained our alliances, and wrecked the global economy. Nichols discusses his new piece arguing that the U.S. capitulated to Iran, explains how Trump left us worse off than before, and walks us through what will happen next, with Trump in a weakened state. 

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Donald Trump erupted in fury at Representative Jamie Raskin in a long, rambling Truth Social post. Trump called him a “loser” who suffers from “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” But the tirade was unintentionally revealing. Trump raged that if Raskin and Democrats win the House, they will “impeach me” and called on Congress to “EXPEL THE BUM” before it’s too late. In so doing, Trump revealed that he absolutely does fear impeachment. This gives Democrats a good argument: The last thing Trump wants is a Democratic Congress precisely because it will hold him accountable and put a check on his lawlessness. So what would this actually look like? We talked to Andy Craig, senior editor at The Unpopulist, who thinks creatively on this topic. We discuss the deeper reasons Trump fears another impeachment, all the hidden tools that the next Congress could use to constrain him, and why aggressive congressional action against Trump would rebalance our dangerously out-of-whack system. 

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Donald Trump’s polling just crashed to new lows. He’s hit a net approval on inflation of negative 50 points in numerous surveys, something no other president has done—ever. Trump also is at 80 percent disapproval on gas prices. And this is the first time Democrats have led Republicans on inflation since the 1970s. It’s no accident that this comes as sources around Trump tell CNN that he’s “furious” because the media didn’t make his latest Iran bombing look strong and powerful. These stories are linked: His failure to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is causing the very cost spikes that are tanking his approval and his party’s chances in the midterms. We talked to Democratic strategist Christina Reynolds, who has extensive experience in midterms. She explains how Trump’s travails are translating into new pickup opportunities in surprising places, parses a new poll showing Democrats up 10 in the generic House matchup, and explains why 2026 reminds her of Democratic routs in 2006 and 2018.

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