THE DAILY BLAST with Greg Sargent

Intriguingly, Fox News has lately been hitting Donald Trump with terrible polling news. In recent days, Fox has found Democrats slightly ahead in Senate races in Maine, Texas, and Iowa, and up by a lot in North Carolina. Critically, Trump’s own favorability numbers are very bad in all those states, even though he won three of them, two by double digits. In all four, his numbers among independents are shockingly awful. Meanwhile, on the Iran war—which is central to why his standing is cratering—Trump aides are privately feeding him hopium. The Atlantic reports that they’re showing him data on Iran’s economy, which supposedly illustrates that if he does nothing and bides his time, Iran will surrender any day now. Doing nothing is the smart play, sir! Yet as Democratic strategist Caitlin Legacki argues in this episode, Trump’s inaction on Iran is a big albatross for GOP Senate candidates. Legacki explains why Iran is central to the battle for the Senate, why those Fox polls should give Democrats grounds for cautious optimism, and what could still go wrong for them.
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By now you’ve heard that when Donald Trump left the NATO summit in Turkey last month, he was clandestinely transferred from Air Force One to an alternative plane to avert a credible Iranian threat. It appears many of his cabinet members were left on Air Force One. Now new leaks make the story look darker: It turns out Trump brought several of the aides who are personally closest to him on the safe alternative flight. This, even as he left numerous journalists on the original plane, which effectively turned them into a decoy that might have been targeted. None were informed of the operation. It all perfectly captures Trump’s contempt for the media, so we talked to Margaret Sullivan, author of the excellent press-critiquing Substack “American Crisis.” She explains why this saga is so irregular, why the media faces a moment of uncommon challenges, and why journalists often won’t directly confront authoritarianism, even when it gravely threatens their own institution.
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While interviewing Donald Trump, a MAGA media personality urged Trump to consider declaring a national emergency to seize control of our elecctions. Trump’s response was ugly. “Let me just say that stranger things have happened,” Trump said. “I’ll leave it at that.” In other words, Trump wants it understood that declaring a national emergency absolutely is being considered. This comes as Politico reports that Republicans are privately bracing to face Trump’s “wrath,” now that the Senate has gone on recess without passing the voter suppression legislation he wants. Republicans fear he’ll erupt at them anew over this in coming days. In short, Trump is intensifying his search for ways to rig the midterms or steal them outright. So we talked to Professor Rick Hasen, the author of the excellent Election Law Blog. He explains what’s wrong with Trump’s “national emergency” threat, how it signals genuine intent to delegitimize our elections, what election-theft options Trump has that really should worry us, and what ordinary voters can do—right now—to prepare for the worst. Listen to this episode here.
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In a fascinating new analysis, CNN’s Harry Enten calculates that Donald Trump’s net approval on the economy is 33 points underwater. That’s a shocking 42-point swing from during the 2018 midterms, when Trump was in positive territory. On top of that, Enten notes that in the most recent CNN poll, Trump’s net approval on inflation is 50 points underwater, and that this hasn’t been rivaled by any other president. Meanwhile, Republican pollsters and strategists tell The Wall Street Journal that they fear that under Trump, the GOP has thrown away its traditional advantage on the economy. And they suggest time is running out to turn that around. We talked to New Republic senior editor Alex Shephard, who has been arguing well that Trump’s unpopularity is the story of our politics. We discuss why the bottom fell out so quickly for Trump, what the punditry still gets wrong about 2024, and why Democrats won’t make a big case that on the economy, their party tends to be far better than the GOP ever is.

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In an interview with Punchbowl News, Donald Trump said straight out that his voters just might not show up for GOP candidates this fall. That’s a striking admission of one of the thorniest problems the GOP faces. But it gets worse. Trump also declared that “a lot” of his voters are “not angry at me,” but “are very angry at Republicans.” That will likely be read by his supporters as a declaration that Republicans are failing Trump, and as encouragement to stay home. Meanwhile, polling shows MAGA voters turning against his war in large numbers. And MS NOW interviewed Trump voters and found them deeply disappointed with his second term. In short, MAGA is cracking up. We talked to Shripal Shah, who runs ad expenditures for the Dem-aligned House Majority PAC. We discuss whether Trump voters are gettable by Democrats, whether the current Democratic lead in the generic House matchup is enough, and how big a challenge the tattered Dem brand really poses.

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