Multipolarity

We've been tracking the story for weeks, and now the authorities are waking up to it.
The CFTC, the US commodities markets watchdog, is investigating oil futures bets that appeared to be timed perfectly to profit from President Trump's statements related to the Iran War.
There is an obvious domestic political angle to the return of the Democrats to power after the midterms But there are longer term implications, too: breakdowns of price discovery, untrustworthy markets, rampant corruption among the US political elites — it all speaks to a Third World-isation of their political economy.
Meanwhile, after chivalrously riding to the defence of Trump's targeted oil price, the Saudis are now taking a pasting at the hands of the Houthis.
This puts the Saudi economy itself at risk: politically, it is unable to devalue the Riyal. But without sufficient oil exports, its trade account would have to be financed somehow: either by debt or selling Treasuries.
It all signals coming political instability in the Kingdom. Is this most rock-solid of Gulf regimes finally on the slip-slide?
All of which still leaves a question dangling: why did MBS make such a foolish decision to start this war? Was he given bad advice? Or was he, in fact, 'tricked', by a sophisticated intelligence operation?

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Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’. And we’ve hardly struggled for material since.
Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen.
You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column. You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack.
Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.

A record-breaking week down in Hormuz, where twelve oil tankers have been hit in a matter of days. Back on Wall Street, the cost of oil has pipped $100 a barrel. Last week, a third US aircraft carrier set sail for the region. It could mean that three carriers are in the region as early as the end of October.

The narrative that the Strait is open and back to pre war oil flows is collapsing already. After we predicted much of this fakery in last week’s episode, this week we’re asking: why did the pundit class get it so wrong?

The answer, says Philip Pilkington, is that it seems as though the analysts are mistaking the tool that Iran is using to achieve its strategic goals for the goal itself. Besides: even if we take the US story of the navy finding a way to pry open the Strait at face value, it's unsustainable.

Now, as Andrew Collingwood points out, US Treasury Yields become the new front in this spiralling crisis. After all, the US has multiple points of financial vulnerability: with more tension being pumped into the system, there’s no telling where that chain of consequences could finally explode out.

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Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’.

And we’ve hardly struggled for material since. Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen.

You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column. You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack.

Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.

What can we know about the oil that gets through Hormuz?
Turns out most of what we know filters through a single data point: a company called Kpler.
Before the war, Kpler's numbers were solid. They combined transponder tracking with loading and unloading records, following each ship payload from port to port.
But then the shadow fleet tankers switched their transponders off. No one reports their cargo any more. Now, Kpler has to fall back on satellite images. And those are redacted by the Pentagon...
Now, says Philip Pilkington, we're all in the woods looking for Yetis - and we can't tell whether we've hit a real Sasquatch, or just a guy in a woollen suit.
Brent was $70 to 80 when everyone agreed the Strait was shut. It's now above $90. In July, 'Oil Glut 1.0"' knocked about $30 off the price. But 'Glut 2.0' has only moved it by about $10 - well within ordinary weekly volatility.
Does the market no longer believing the people pushing these stories?

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Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’.
And we’ve hardly struggled for material since. Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era.
Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen.
You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column. You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack.
Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.

Lately, European leaders seem panicked.
By the beginning of July, the EU had begun acting in an increasingly assertive, confident way.
On China – they announced new anti-dumping, anti-subsidy measures. On Ukraine, they pushed forward with plans to release even more materiel to the front. On the question of democracy and centralisation, they were happy to roll over the Romanians, and put their thumb on the scale in Hungary.
Now it’s call time at the casino. The cards are being turned over – and once they lose their shirts, the continent’s leaders are still going to need the parking deposit to pay their way out of the building.
A trade war with China. America stepping back. An increasingly unstable game of missile ping pong with Russia. An energy shock coming up the pike. Winter in a few weeks. Ursula & co now find themselves sitting amidst a perfect storm of bad bets. How will they ride this out? As the security situation weakens, will Europe revert to ‘securitisation’ to bolster its faltering power?
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Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’. And we’ve hardly struggled for material since.
Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen. You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column.
You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack.
Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.
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Donald Trump’s year of smashing things continues apace.
Iran, Greenland, Canada… At some point, there is no more china in the shop for the bull to break. But not yet.
With his comments that he wants to see a united Ireland, the President has jabbed the Special Relationship in the eye, kneed it in the balls, and burst its spleen.
Breaking up the territorial integrity of an ally? Bad sport, old chap.
He wanted to teach Britain a lesson, but as eighty years of diplomacy crumples in a heap, Trump may soon come to understand the difference between heavy leverage and making a sworn enemy.
Or he may not.
From the poodle Blair to the sticky end of Anthony Eden, British Prime Ministers have always yielded to the jesses of American power. In return, they have been allowed to ride shotgun in the global order.
So what if that soft solicitousness went away? As Britain is loosed from the unipolar order, we’ll be assessing the full damage - from The Falkands to the Balkans, British interests are about to become extremely interesting.
In a special edition, we’ll be spending the whole hour redrawing the map as it could be, if Greece and Rome go their own ways.
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Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’. And we’ve hardly struggled for material since.
Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen. You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column.
You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack.
Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.
Twitter
Patreon
Substack