Multipolarity

This week: two audio essays.
First up, they’re calling it the Poor Man’s Tomahawk. Ukraine is firing up to 2000 long range drones a week into Russia. The production facilities supplying them are scattered across Western Europe. These production facilities have an artificial shield, in that they are diplomatically protected. But how long this will last is unclear.
For its part, Ukraine would like the West to be more active in the war. And one way to do that would be to antagonise Russia into responding beyond its borders. There is now a 50% chance of erratic strikes into Europe proper within the next year, as Philip Pilkington makes clear in The Escalation Ladder.
Meanwhile, Andrew Collingwood has been supping on a 2019 masterwork of geopolitics. Weaponized Interdependence is the title of a Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman paper, in which the pair argue that states with political authority over the central "hubs" in global economic networks: such as those for finance, data, and trade, can exploit this position to gain a strategic advantage. States sitting atop those nodes can exploit two effects: panopticon (information dominance) and choke point (cutting off access to irreplaceable hubs).
Hormuz is one hub. Russia has its commodity hubs. And China has its manufacturing hub dominance.
Put it all together, and the new Iran war has revealed a structural shift in global power, says Andrew Collingwood.
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Russia has rained Oreshnik hypersonic missiles on Kiev. Four people killed. 549 missiles apparently shot down. This was a message. The Oreshnik travels at Mach 10. It was designed to deliver nukes.
As fighting season starts in earnest, year five looks like it might be the start of real escalation.
But, if Russian munitions start tiptoeing ever further West, could this be the year of, you know, real real escalation?
Meanwhile, the US-Iran war peace talks are going well:
Iran wants tolls on the strait. US says no.
Iran wants 12 billion in reparations. US says no.
Nuclear weapons? They’re being kicked into another round of talks-about-talks.
So why is Little Marco still predicting a deal within days?
Finally, Huawei say they have figured out a new approach to chip design that doesn’t require them to be smaller.
“What happens when you’ve got a silicon chip the size of a dinner plate?” is one key question. Another is what happens when chips are no longer the ace card for Western leverage.
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Donald Trump took Elon Musk and Jensen Huang to Beijing with him for 48 hours. But rather than the frat boy big weekend of their autistic dreams, the trip turned into a sequel to The Hangover.
A dressing down from President Xi on Iran, a few more soybeans flogged, and some Boeings on order: was it worth Jensen’s $17 000 an hour time?
Meanwhile, the Japanese 10 year bond yield has climbed above the Chinese one. This is something of a sorpasso. As the country struggles to keep its debt load manageable, there’s a sense of sag to the economy. Does the Japan of our techno-futurist imaginations now bear the same degree of relation to reality – as the Italy of our Fellini fantasies?
Finally – another sorpasso – Mexican birth rates have dipped below those of America for the first time. Problem being, if the Mexicans don’t have sex, they can’t supply the US with a constant source of surplus labour.
US conservatives have long been scornful of European immigration patterns, falling back on the cultural compatibility of their southern neighbours – but unless Pablo and Maria get back in the bedroom, they’ll soon be receiving the same rich blend of Africans and Middle Easterners as the EU.
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This week: a tale of two audio essays.
Philip is going deep dive on the coming oil crisis.
He sees a two-wave format emerging. The initial wave - dropping in a month or so, is already baked in.
“The oil infrastructure is like a body,” he says. “if the heart stops pumping, the cells stop oxygenating, after a while they begin to die off.” They're "living chemical engineering systems" that need constant throughput. Shutdowns normally require years of planning and cost hundreds of millions. This will entail real damage to the global oil infrastructure, but eventually reparable.
And then a second wave - if things persist into the autumn. Which will mean an inflationary depression. Real declines in global living standards.
That future portends a potential schism – a genuine multipolar moment, as the Strait is hived off to genuine Iranian control, under the aegis of Russia and China.
His message is simple: “Enjoy the beginning of summer…” While you still can.
Meanwhile, Andrew has turned his attention towards Broken Britain. With the Prime Minister now holed below the waterline, is there still any potential universe in which Britain avoids a big bond market shock?
What he’s calling The Madame Butterfly Effect explains how Jeffrey Epstein could crash the UK economy.
During the period in which Mandelson left politics (after 2010), a new form of political operator emerged. What Matt Stoller calls 'entrepreneurial brokers'.
An American gold mining company wishes to secure a stake in a new deposit in Siberia.
A major British political donor wants to raise capital for his son’s hedge fund.
An Italian politician might enjoy access to a luxury yacht twice a year.
Mandelson found himself 'fixing things'.
In the Unipolar world order, he says, nations specialised. Britain’s specialisation was financial services and openness to trade, which in turn allowed it to piggyback on US foreign policy.
This, however, led to deindustrialisation and to associated policies such as openness to high immigration.
But that system of integration, of the entrepreneurial brokers running things, is now capsizing, thanks to Epstein. The Labour Left will likely take charge after Starmer's resignation. They have no brokers. And no links into the real world of high level market traders who might smooth their passage.
Another cheery week.
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Remember Olaf Scholz? Just about?
Remember when he sunk to the lowest opinion poll rating in German political history?
Well the good news for anonymous hopeless former Chancellors is that the next beige technocrat in charge of Germany has just beaten his record. Plunging to 89% dissatisfied – with only 11% satisfied.
Even with Macron as the most unpopular President ever, Starmer the least popular Prime Minister, Merz is more unpopular still.
Our lead question this week is very simple: what the flaming fuck is going on in Germany?
Meanwhile, more news just in on Europe’s cordless bungee ride: UK bond yields have spiked again. To 5.3% - the highest rate since 1998.
They can’t go any higher – right?
In the four years since the Truss contagion blew up the markets by hitting 5% and toppled the government, it’s a good thing the UK Treasury used that period to stop running massive deficits… right?
Finally, the global oil market is beginning to resemble Argentina under Kirschner. You’ve got your official prices; and then your real prices. As reality continues to diverge from the markets, we’re asking: who is this mysterious Whale of Hormuz who keeps on fiddling with the international price mechanism?
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