Shield of the Republic

Eric and Eliot discuss the rapidly unfolding events in Syria and examine the causes and consequences of the collapse of Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria. They discuss the big winners (Turkey, Israel, the Syrian people and to a lesser extent the U.S) and the big losers (notably Russia and especially Iran). They discuss the timing of the Hayat Tahrir al Sham offensive, how to interpret the claims of HTS leader abu Mohammed al Jolani that the group has moderated, the prospects for Russia maintaining its Khmeimim Air Base and its naval base at Tartus, as well as the future of Iranian national security policy. In particular, they discuss whether the Iranians will have incentives to sprint to a nuclear weapon or whether they will temporize and seek to embroil the incoming Trump administration in an endless negotiation over the nuclear program. They discuss the Biden Administration's efforts to polish its reputation in the aftermath of recent events and the waxing and waning of leadership reputations including former President Barack Obama and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. They consider what effect events in Syria might have on Trump's approach to the war in Ukraine. They also touch on listener criticisms that calling for greater defense spending seems out of touch with today's American political scene. They consider the results of the recent Reagan National Defense Forum survey and the light those results shed on the question of public support for stronger national defense. Eliot's latest pieces in the Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/khamenei-iran-syria/680920/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/european-troops-ukraine-war/680928/ Eric & David Kramer's latest in Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/12/06/trump-ukraine-better-foreign-policy-00192415 Reagan Foundation Study on Public Perception of Defense Spending: https://www.reaganfoundation.org/media/363274/rndf-survey-nov-2024-memo.pdf Financial Times Retrospectives on Angela Merkel: https://www.ft.com/content/0a538c85-27fb-400e-ae8b-f13fb6ce4e72 https://www.ft.com/content/e82af5d9-32ea-444e-93e2-9e457d6a6796 Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot return from Thanksgiving to discuss the Trump transition and its national security nominations so far. They talk about Kash Patel as FBI Director, the new allegations against Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth, as well as the nepotistic nominations of in laws Charles Kushner, a convicted felon, as Ambassador to France and Massad Boulos as Middle East advisor. They discuss whether or not to take any solace from the nomination of General (ret.) Keith Kellogg as Ukraine Peace negotiator and the pluses and minuses of the America First Institute peace plan that Kellogg co-authored with Fred Fleitz in April. They also touch on the prospective challenges to civil-military relations that are likely to emerge early in the Trump Administration with mass deportation and prospective purges of the JCS and the senior officer corps more broadly. They discuss a series of developments in Europe and the Middle East that have not received as much attention as they deserve given the focus on the transition in the US including the Presidential election in Romania which was subject to Russian interference and the potential election of a populist, NATO skeptic as President, the rising protests in Georgia that eerily echo what happened in Ukraine with the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 and finally the Syrian opposition offensive against the regime of Bashar al Assad and its capture of Aleppo, Syria's second largest city. Keith Kellogg and Ukraine: https://americafirstpolicy.com/issues/america-first-russia-ukraine https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/42992 Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow John J. Sullivan. John was Deputy Secretary of Commerce in Bush 43, Deputy Secretary of State under Secretary Pompeo and served as Ambassador to Moscow for both Presidents Trump and Biden. They discuss his terrific account Midnight in Moscow: A Memoir From the Front Lies of Russia's War Against the West (New York:  Little Brown and Co., 2024). They talk about the importance and difficulty of maintaining reciprocity in diplomatic representation with Russia the declassification of intelligence to deter Russia and DCI Bill Burns's role in the run up to Putin's invasion, the nature of Russian society and the national character and Russia's imperial hangover, Ambassador Sullivan's never sent valedictory telegram from Moscow and his final judgments about Russia and its war on Ukraine and the west, Putin' readiness to negotiate and his criticisms of the Biden Administration's approach to the war in Ukraine. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes Eliot back from his recent trip to Israel. They discuss the election results, whether or not it represents a mandate for Trump, why the Dems lost, and what the initial signals from the Trump transition augur for national security. Will the normie Republicans control the cabinet positions with MAGA true believers taking the second and third tier positions? They touch on the role of Don Jr,, Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson in making personnel selections, the likely clash of egos to come as well as the policy contradictions that are likely to plague the Administration and the knock-on consequences of mass deportation and tariffs that are likely to roil the nation if the Trump team implements them. They talk about the prospects for a Lebanon cease-fire, Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer's trip to Moscow and how the Trump transition hangs over policy in the Middle East. Eliot reports back on his trip and discussions with Israeli military leaders who see themselves as facing a multi-front war with Iran. They discuss the destruction of Hamas's military capabilities in Gaza, the ongoing guerrilla war there and the difficulties that Israel may face in finding a political authority to rule over Gaza in the near future. They also discuss the much more precise campaign waged against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the damage that has been done to Iran's position in the region (and at home) by Israeli military success. They also discuss the tensions in Israeli society between secular and orthodox Jews on the one hand and the ultra-orthodox on the other.  Finally, they touch on the prospect for civil-military tensions in the US as a consequence of Trump's return to office. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.