Blain's Morning Porridge

• Blain’s Morning Porridge Halloween 2025 – A Horror Story from 2035.

  A Horror Story from 2035. “The smug mask of virtue triumphant can be almost as horrible as the face of wickedness revealed.” What will the future look like? Many Porridge readersfear Technofeudalism – where a new aristocracy of big tech will replace democracy and make serfs of us all. What might it look like…?   It being Halloween, as so often happens in the Morning Porridge office, this morning a report from October 2035 crossed between worlds and arrived in the Morning Porridge’s inbox…. The Morning Porridge Oct 31st 2035 – Be Happy.Or else! End of the month is never easy. As a pensioner still working60 hours a week, like everyone else I struggle to pay the bills.  There’s a couple of million for Electricity due to the Monks of Westinghouse, Baron Luckey of Gondor wants half a yard of $Trump to pay our share for the swarms and shoals of Andruil Drones that now protect these islands. His boss, the Lord Theil, demands ever more gold (he’s stoppedaccepting dollars) for our access to the Palantir Health Service (formerly the NHS), while the London Recovery surcharge gets bigger every month following Duke Brin’s nuclear decapitation strikes on Facebook’s entire leadership at the start of Google’s hostile acquisition of Meta. (Did someone not tell him Nick Clegg had retired?). The bill from the Reform Corporation for water, road-tax, air-tax and the NBC Licence, (Nigel’s Broadcasting Company) is out of any proportion to the nothingless it delivers......Check out www.morningporridge.com for the whole thing..  

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• Blain’s Morning Porridge Oct 30th 2025 – What did the Korea Summit really mean for markets?

  “Come not between the dragon and his wrath” This morning’s meeting in Busan, Korea was short and sweet. Goal achieved - the global meltdown that would have followed a rare-earth embargo by China has been avoided. What is more interesting is how it could change the current power set-up in Washington as Scott Bessent and Marco Rubio increasingly takecentre stage.Two events and One Big Question for Global Markets toconsider this morning:What really happened in Busan, South Korea this morning?What did the Fed tell us about the path of US interestrates?What do they tell us about global power and influence?The noise from the Trump/Xi meeting in Korea was exactly asexpected: There was de-escalation of Trade War rhetoric including port charges levied on shipping. A 1-year trade deal (cease fire) is in the offing. Tariffs were cut to 10%. Agreement was (apparently) reached that China will hold back on rare-earthexport controls while the USA scales back export bans on advanced chips. China will buy American Soya Beans – sparing US famers from bankruptcy. A full summit in Beijing next year, followed by a visit to DC. Thus spake Trump. (I would love to know what Xi thought.) The apparent agreement was all pretty much as alreadynegotiated by Trump’s adult-in-the-room Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. As such, it’s all positive for a less destabilised global trading system, although still plenty of things to be ironed out, like Russian oil and Ukraine. Markets should like it. However, the optics of the summit looked less than convincing.Trump stood there waiting to greet a great chum with charm, flattery and lashings of shmooze. He piled on the compliments. Xi barely acknowledged any of it – his comments about frictions and relationships emphasised this was a meeting of equals. But his body language looked like a man who was there in “necessary but distasteful toleration” mode of Trump. That doesn’t actually matter much. The die are already cast.

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• Blain’s Morning Porridge Oct 29th 2025 – How much will AI cost, and how much can we afford?

  How much will AI cost, and how much can we afford? “The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincingthe world he didn’t exist..” The AI Bubble floats on a wave of Confidence – confidencethe global economy needs it, the USA will lead it, the hyperscalers and AI firms can afford it, energy is not an issues, and competition from China, tech evolution and quantum are not issues. All the market sees is opportunity. Beenhere before. There is a marvellous Scots word – Gallus. It describes someone with a certain amount of swagger, who is bold, convincing,and above all confident. Confidence is the greatest bluff in the book. Confidence is contagious. Confidence persuades where reason will not. I reckon a surfeit of over-confidence is at the root of every single major market correction and collapse. Despite all the concern, uncertainty and a growing sense ofinstability some of us feel in markets, and especially AI, confidence still defines the current market mood. Damn the torpedoes.. confidence is everything! Donald Trump is a gallus man. His confidence is drivingthe US economy. Despite all the issues, the US economy has not collapsed in a sluff of the economic logic folk like myself confidently predicted from tariffs, inflation, trade, supply lines, etc. Earlier this week he inked a deal with Japan, adding to the trillions of dollars of foreign investment promises already heading America’s way. Trump tell us he’s going to personally allocate that money – which is news to most of the countries that made vague acknowledgements about exploring how to do more with America in return for Trump rowing back theirrespective tariff levels.  Other commentators describe Trump’s Middle East and currentAsian Tour as a Mafiosi Don visiting clients for the annual shakedown for his protection racket. Harsh, but not unfair….  It all sounds fantastic, trillions of foreign investmentscreating jobs and boosting the US economy, while all the tariff money foreign exporters are paying continues to pay down the national debt! What’s not to like about how Trump has transformed the economy and the rest of the world getsto pay for it?  But… Let’s see if any of that promised investment evermaterialises. In the meantime, bang that drum a little harder, because its giving America confidence...  THe other big confidence issue for the economy is AI – just howbig and affordable is it? Big news yesterday was Sam Altman of Open AI turning thealtruistic not-for-profit into potentially the most valuable for profit IPO of all time… The new board structure looks… complex, but he is also a gallus man, (even though he does not look the most impressive of entreprenuers.. (It is just me that thinks he looks… hunted?))

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• Blain’s Morning Porridge 28th October 2028 – Compare and contrast the Real World with Dreams

  Compare and contrast the Real World with Dreams “And you have burned so very, very brightly…”Gold has taken a bit of a tumble – but is thecorrection a buying opportunity? While the UK feels increasing glum ahead of the few choices in the November Budget, Elon Musk is confident on his demandsfor a $1 trillion upside bonus. They are illustrations of the contrast between hype, speculation and downside manipulation. If you want a simple illustration of how far fear and speculationin global markets are diverging from reality, have a quick think about what Gold, the UK and Tesla are telling us. While UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves tries to stretch the few billion pounds left in the Whitehall piggy-bank to balance the books, Elon Musk is calling anyone questioning his $1 trillion pay demands an idiot! As the West looks increasingly distracted by hype and politics, smart money is watching Gold – is the current correction a buying-window before the outlook deteriorates further?  I reckon it might be - common sense seldom exhibits thespeed of a contagious pandemic!  And if we’re going to talk about the UK, the obvious placeto start is Buenos Aires. I’ve read a truly ridiculous series of articles in the Torygraph this morning – calling for the UK to follow the example of Javier Milei in Argentina: Mileihas given Britain a serious economic lesson.  Austerity… really? If a minor celebrity was to lose theirleg in a car crash… would you saw your own leg off to follow fashion? While the Guardian speculates the real reason Argentina voted for Austerity was Trump’s threats to walk away and pull US support to punish voters, the Torygraph praises voters’ common sense and willingness to drink deep of the deadly economic nightshade of austerity. You can find the whole article on the Morning Porridge on www.morningporridge.com

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• Blain’s Morning Porridge Oct 27th 2025 – End of the world or another Trump deal? Which is worse?

  "So, it’s a f*****g coin toss? That is what we get for 50billion dollars?” It is possible to cram Cataclysm, Armageddon and Apocalypseinto a single Morning Porridge at the start of a week that promises to be market friendly? Of course it is! There is plenty of stuff to worry about, but when the noise sounds so positive, the herd that is the market will keep on fooling themselves.. The higher they climb, the further there is to fall… That was an “interesting” weekend. I nearly scared myself todeath, and had some disturbing insights as to what comes next…. And then decided…. Relax… just go with the flow. Went for a swim, a sail, a pint, and a damn fine traditional roast Chicken dinner (winner, winner) with friends – what could possibly go wrong?First up is this week’s Trump/Xi summit in Seoul. The groundwork is laid, both sides are talking up the “peace in our time” narrative on the trade war. American farmers will sell their soyabean mountain and avoid penury, while Trump and Bessent will hail it as the greatest ever deal in the history of greatest ever deals. Both sides will gloss over the nothingelseness thatwill accompany it – how China will retain the options over critical rare earths and Trump will never again mention punitive tariffs on the Middle Kingdom again – until he inevitably does. However, this week the market will love it.  Trump threatened. China pushed back. USA Lost and retreats 2steps. Xi  Wins and China moves forward. That’s basically how history will record it. Trump will spend his time telling everyone what a great deal he did. Xi will continue to expand his power, and China’s position as the dominant trading partner will gain further traction. Second up is the extraordinary victory of La Libertad Avanza in Argentina. President Javier Miei’s party won 41% of the votes, despite the polls predicting a massive lashback after he was hammered by the Buenos Aires’ Peronistas just last month and a slew of corruption scandals mired his senior team and family. (Par for the course in Argentina.) Yesterday Milei swung around the 14% deficit in the capitalstate. Extraordinary indeed. Apparently markets and the IMF had nothing to fear from unhappy Argentine voters – who gave Libertarian austerity and free-market reform and increased share of the mid-term vote, despite some 40% of the population in poverty. Argentinian voters are cleary not daft. Maybe $40 bln of USsupport for the Peso and economy helped? Bloomberg quotes Billionaire Bill Ackman: “an important win for democracy, capitalism, and sanity, and a defeat for socialists.” Of course it is. (Pass me a bucket.) Trump said it clearer: If Milei “doesn’t win, we’re gone”.  See www.morningporridge.com for full article.

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