Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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In this episode of Monetary Matters, Bloomberg Chief US Economist Anna Wong explains why surging oil prices are unlikely to trigger a repeat of the 9% inflation seen in 2022. Wong argues that even if oil reaches $200 per barrel, headline CPI would likely peak near 6% before declining due to "base effects" and a lack of the excess consumer savings that fueled previous price spikes. She highlights the reality of "demand destruction," noting that sustained $100 oil would sap nearly $2,000 in spending power from the average American household. Despite these pressures, Wong does not view a recession as her base case, citing the offsetting support of expansionary fiscal policy and increased domestic production in the energy and defense sectors. The discussion also explores why the Federal Reserve should "look through" these commodity shocks, particularly as core PCE remains influenced by more persistent issues like the AI-driven memory chip shortage. Finally, Wong compares our current macro landscape to the 1970s, suggesting that while the situations "rhyme," a full repeat would require a much larger surge in government-driven demand. Recorded March 31, 2026

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Join Max Wiethe on "Other People's Money" as he sits down with world-renowned performance coach Dr. Gio Valiante. Dr. Valiante has spent decades coaching elite performers, from PGA Tour champions like Jordan Spieth to legendary portfolio managers at Point 72 and Citadel. In this deep-dive podcast, Dr. Valiante pulls back the curtain on the psychology of the world’s most successful investors. He explains that top traders operate with the discipline and optimization of elite athletes—"investor athletes"—who must manage fear, detach from ego, and master their environment.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:42 Pictet ETFs

00:55 Why Pods Took Over

03:04 Culture and Incentives Matter

05:19 Fear in Trading Explained

08:53 Embarrassment and Risk Aversion

12:03 Playing to Win vs Not Lose

13:21 Elite Funds Audit Process

14:34 Regret and Missed Trades

19:21 Pictet AI ETFs

20:56 Detaching from Short Term PnL

22:21 Weekends Recovery for PMs

24:15 Handling Weekend News Cycles

28:41 Regulation Favors Big Platforms

32:30 Spinoffs Vs Bootstrapping

33:29 Bootstrapped Edge

34:33 Leaving Pod Shop Reality

36:05 Situated Cognition Explained

37:55 Culture Sparks Ideas

39:43 Mandates and Opportunity Cost

41:17 Ego Identity and Seat

45:04 Capital Cycles Perspective

48:46 Entitlement Versus Humility

54:39 Performance Hierarchy

57:57 Why Hedge Funds Matter

01:00:18 Masters Picks and Wrap

01:01:54 Pictet AI ETFs

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In this episode, Jack sits down with Leyla Kunimoto, founder of Accredited Investor Insights, to discuss her journey into private markets and the ongoing "democratization" of alternative assets. The conversation explores the rise of "evergreen" or semi-liquid structures, which allow retail investors to bypass the traditional "J curve" by deploying capital almost immediately. Leyla provides a detailed look at the current wave of redemption requests hitting major private credit funds like Cliffwater and Blackstone, explaining the mechanics of 5% quarterly caps used to prevent the fire selling of assets. She further breaks down the risks associated with Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) and the rise of "shadow defaults" through payment-in-kind (PIK) interest toggles. The interview highlights why Leyla currently prefers publicly traded Business Development Companies (BDCs) over private ones, noting the potential arbitrage available when public shares trade at a significant discount to their net asset value. Finally, Leyla shares why she is far more bearish on private equity than private credit, citing the asset class's extreme opaqueness and junior position in the capital stack. Recorded March 29, 2026.

Accredited Insight:

Cliffwater Part 1: https://www.accreditedinsight.com/p/cliffwater-corporate-lending-fund

Cliffwater Redemptions: https://www.accreditedinsight.com/p/cliffwater-corporate-lending-fund-d4c

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Former Head of Sovereign Credit at PIMCO Lupin Rahman joins Jack to discuss sovereign debt and its peculiarities. She explains why its technicals can differ significantly from fundamentals, the growth of emerging market debt, and risks to consider when investing in these assets. Jack and Lupin also discuss the important conflict in the Middle East and what it means
for markets across the world. As an expert in both sovereign debt and emerging markets, Lupin is an important voice to consider when assessing global fixed income markets. Recorded on March 16th, 2026.

 

Lupin Rahman’s Book https://www.amazon.com

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Lupin Rahman on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/lupin-rahman/

 

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In this episode of Monetary Matters,  Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab’s Chief Investment Strategist, explains how 2026 presents an "analytically rich" environment where headline indices are currently masking significant underlying market stress. She notes that while the S&P 500 shows a modest drawdown, the average stock is seeing much steeper declines, reflecting a period of intense "rotation and churn" triggered by the war in Iran and a spike in oil prices. Sonders highlights a critical shift in investor behavior, where the previous year's preference for non-profitable speculative stocks has flip-flopped in favor of a "quality" factor centered on stable profitability and strong balance sheets. She draws parallels to the 1990 period, warning that the lack of alternate routes for oil through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to sustained economic demand destruction. Despite these geopolitical shocks, Sonders observes that forward earnings estimates for the tech and energy sectors remain surprisingly resilient, though she anticipates downward revisions as reporting season approaches. Ultimately, she reminds investors that in such a volatile cycle, "better or worse" as a leading indicator often matters more to the market than whether the data is objectively "good or bad". Recorded March 24, 2026.

Pieces referenced:

“Dire Strait: War's Impact on Stocks”: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/dire-strait-wars-impact-on-stocks

“Schwab Market Perspective”: 

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-market-outlook

“Smoke on the Water…Fire Under the Surface”: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/smoke-on-waterfire-under-surface

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