Tariffs & Q2 Growth Shock | Trade Maven Brad Setser on Trump’s Tariff Warpath, China’s Balance of Payments, and “Self-Induced Recession” Probabilities
This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck.
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Brad Setser is an expert on global trade and capital flows, having served as senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022. The Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) joins Monetary Matters to explain why he thinks President Trump’s tariffs are likely to cause a growth shock in the second quarter. Recorded on March 20, 2025
Brad Setser piece on China’s Balance of Payments: https://www.cfr.org/blog/iphone-imf-and-chinas-balance-payments
“The Evolution of Global Trade in 2024”: https://www.cfr.org/blog/evolution-global-trade-2024
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Brad Setser on CFR: https://www.cfr.org/expert/brad-w-setser
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1:26:25
From Treasury Minister of Argentina to Macro Hedge Fund Manager | Nicolás Dujovne of Tenac Asset Management
This episode is brought to you by Fintool. Learn more about how you can add AI to your investment process with Fintool: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=the_opm
Nicolás Dujovne, CIO and founder of Tenac Asset Management, joins Other People’s Money to discuss his path from Treasury Minister of Argentina and president of the G-20 to hedge fund manager. Despite more experience managing economies than trading them, Dujovne and his partners at Tenac have succeeded in building a 5+ year track record with no down years and an annualized rate of 17.18% net of fees, focusing mostly on sovereign and corporate debt of emerging market countries. In the interview we discuss how global macro feeds portfolio construction, the important factors when analyzing individual emerging markets, and how understanding large international organizations like the IMF is crucial to predicting outcomes in EM.
This episode is brought to you by Fintool, a financial copilot tailored for institutional investors. Fintool leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to discover financial insights beyond the reach of timely human analysis. From summarizing extensive annual reports to computing numbers and unearthing new insights by comparing years of filings, Fintool equips institutional investors like Janus Henderson, First Manhattan and companies like PWC. Learn more about how you can add AI to your investment process: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=the_opm
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:29 Fintool Front Roll
02:00 Why is LATAM a Macro Hotbed?
04:11 From Minister of the Treasury to Macro Trader
11:36 Capital Raising in LATAM
16:31 Developing & Communicating Your Investment Process
20:53 Fintool Mid Roll
22:01 The Growth of EM Debt Markets
25:56 Dispersion and Portfolio Management
30:50 Corporate/Quasi Sovereign Debt
34:30 The Events That Move Markets in EM
38:22 Data Integrity Issues in EM
39:28 Vol and Investor Expectations
43:14 Global Spotlight on Argentina
44:57 Unique Requirements of Global Investing
48:16 The Roll of the IMF
54:27 Elections and Prediction Markets
56:58 The Roll of US Financial Conditions
01:01:45 Current Outlook for US Trade Policy
01:03:17 Opportunity Right Now
#stocks #economics #economy #recession #bonds #stockmarket #investing #hedgefunds #analyst #Alternatives #Argentina #NicolasDujovne #tenac #emergingmarkets #EMinvesting
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1:05:23
A Foreclosure Wave Is Coming | Chris Whalen on FHA Mortgage Loans, Tariffs, Bank Valuations, and Payment Companies
Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe
While Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors is a supporter of many of the Trump administration’s policies, he expects they will cause some significant turbulence in credit and economic markets. Chris explains why he thinks FHA Mortgage foreclosures will rise, and shares his views on tariffs, bank stocks, and payment companies. Recorded on March 20, 2025.
Second edition of Chris Whalen’s “Inflated”: https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Inflated%3A+Money%2C+Debt+and+the+American+Dream%2C+2nd+Edition-p-9781394285716
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1:04:09
The Fed's Rate Cutting Cycle Is Already Over | Jim Bianco on March Fed Meeting, Trump Tariffs, and 4/5/6 Markets
This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck.
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Jim Bianco returns to Monetary Matters to break down the March Federal Reserve meeting. He explains why he thinks tariffs are unlikely to cause a recession and share his current asset allocation outlook. Recorded the afternoon of March 19, 2025.
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1:11:05
Volatility Markets Are Complacent | Kris Sidial on Tariff Risk to Stocks, Dispersion Trade, and Margin Risk
Kris Sidial, co-CIO of The Ambrus Group, returns to Monetary Matters to share his decidedly bearish view of the U.S. stock market. Kris argues that volatility markets are not sufficiently pricing in the risks of President Trump’s economic policy, and if that if anything, vol traders are expecting a bounce and laying off hedges rather than buying them. Kris also explains the dispersion trade, vol selling in ETFs, index arb, vanna & volga, VVIX, and margin risk. Recorded on March 18, 2025.
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