Market Maker

The market got it wrong.

After months of expecting easier policy, central banks have just delivered a major reality check. The Federal Reserve is no longer forecasting cuts, the Bank of England is turning more hawkish, and the European Central Bank could move sooner than anyone expected.

Behind it all is a new inflation threat building beneath the surface. Energy prices are rising fast, and if they stay elevated, the consequences could ripple through food, wages, and the broader economy.

This episode breaks down the chain reaction now unfolding across global markets, why bond yields are surging, and how a temporary shock could become something much more persistent.

The big question is no longer when rates will fall but whether they’re about to rise again.

(00:00) Rate Cuts Shock
(02:14) Fed Turns Hawkish
(08:30) Iran, Oil & Inflation
(15:46) Market Reaction
(19:59) Gold Drop Explained
(26:13) Bank of England Shift
(30:00) UK Energy Risk
(37:06) ECB Pivot
(38:27) Inflation Feedback Loop
(43:50) Iran Impact on Food & Energy

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In this week’s Market Maker Podcast M&A episode, we break down the biggest deals moving markets right now. We start with Axel Springer’s $770 million acquisition of the Daily Telegraph, the proposed Airbus–Leonardo–Thales space merger aimed at competing with SpaceX, and the latest developments in the Monte dei Paschi–Mediobanca deal. We also discuss a new take-private bid for Papa John’s and a recent investment into AmplifyME.

We then dive into the rapid rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms allow users to trade contracts on real-world outcomes—from crypto prices and politics to economic events. With valuations potentially approaching $20 billion, we explore how prediction markets work, why hedge funds are beginning to exploit arbitrage opportunities, and whether this could evolve into a new financial market infrastructure or remain a controversial betting niche.

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction
(01:18) Axel Springer Buys the Telegraph
(05:11) European Space Merger vs SpaceX
(06:52) Monte dei Paschi–Mediobanca Deal
(07:24) Papa John’s Take-Private Bid
(10:27) AmplifyME Investment Explained
(13:33) What Are Prediction Markets?
(20:06) Prediction Market Size
(22:52) Who Built Polymarket & Kalshi?
(29:02) Hedge Funds Enter Prediction Markets
(32:49) Market Manipulation Risks
(38:42) Regulation & Legal Risks
(41:51) The Bull Case for Prediction Markets
(42:43) The Bear Case for Prediction Markets
(46:01) Final Thoughts

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In this episode of the Market Maker Podcast, we break down a rare six-sigma oil market shock - a move so extreme it statistically should happen only once every four million years.

Crude oil surged from around $70 to $120 during geopolitical tensions before rapidly reversing, catching some of the world’s largest hedge funds off guard.

We discuss what drove the volatility, why hedge funds lost billions, and how oil prices feed directly into inflation, interest rates, and global macro markets.

(00:00) Introduction
(01:20) The Oil Price Shock Explained
(05:23) The “Six Sigma” Market Move
(07:20) The Realities of Trading Commodities
(09:18) How Trade is Impacted by War
(14:24) The New Iranian Supreme Leader
(16:45) Strategic Oil Reserves & Market Impact
(29:10) Oil, Inflation & Interest Rates
(32:29) Hedge Funds Feel the Pain

This week on the Market Maker Podcast we break down the biggest M&A deals, private equity moves and activist investor plays shaping global markets.

From a $6.2 billion African telecom infrastructure deal to a $33 billion private equity bet on the energy powering AI data centres, Anthony Cheung and Piers Curran break down the biggest deal stories shaping markets this week.

They also dive into Elliott Management’s role in a $40 billion Toyota Industries takeover, a $1 billion activist play at Pinterest, and the dramatic conclusion to the Warner Brothers bidding war as Paramount outmanoeuvres Netflix.

Essential listening for anyone curious about the strategy behind mega M&A, activist investing, and how infrastructure, AI, and media are colliding in today’s global dealmaking landscape.

(00:00) Intro
(02:24) MTN & IHS Towers Deal
(11:04) Elliott and Toyota Industries
(18:51) Private Equity’s $33bn Energy Bet
(27:35) Investment Banking Scorecard YTD
(31:02) Elliott’s $1bn Pinterest Play
(36:24) Paramount vs Netflix Bidding War

Oil prices are surging as tensions escalate between the US, Israel and Iran but what does it mean for inflation, interest rates and global markets?

In this episode of the AmplifyME Market Maker Podcast, Anthony Cheung and Piers Curran break down the macroeconomic implications of the rapidly escalating conflict in the Middle East and explain why traders and investors are paying close attention to energy markets.

With Brent crude jumping sharply and the Strait of Hormuz once again emerging as a critical geopolitical chokepoint, the discussion explores how disruptions to global energy supply could ripple through the financial system. Around 20% of global oil supply passes through this narrow shipping lane, meaning any disruption has the potential to push energy prices higher and reshape inflation expectations worldwide.

The episode also examines how rising energy prices could influence Federal Reserve policy, delay potential interest rate cuts and create fresh inflation pressure just as central banks believed price stability was returning. The hosts discuss the different risks facing the US and Europe, and whether this geopolitical shock is likely to be a short-term flare-up or the beginning of a broader economic risk.

(00:00) Iran Conflict & Market Impact
(02:10) Strait of Hormuz Explained
(09:07) Brent vs WTI
(10:38) Why Oil Matters for the Economy
(13:10) Shipping Risks in the Gulf
(15:35) Trump’s Oil Strategy
(19:11) Oil and the US Economy
(20:52) Will Oil Delay Rate Cuts?
(21:52) Strategic Oil Reserves
(28:15) Impact on Markets
(31:21) Warsh's Baptism of Fire
(35:10) Short-Term Oil Shock?
(39:31) Europe’s Inflation Risk
(44:04) ECB's Monetary Policy Disaster
(46:00) Will Central Banks Hike?