Independent Thinking

EU expansion, energy shocks, and uneasy alliances: will the conflict in the Gulf – and other crises – force a more unified European strategy?
 
This week's episode comes from the Delphi Economic Forum in Greece, where host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Grégoire Roos, director of our Europe, Russia and Eurasia programmes.
 
As the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran ripples through global markets, Europe finds itself under renewed pressure.
 
Recorded on location amid the activity and discussions of the forum, they explore how Europe is responding to an increasingly unpredictable United States, reconsidering its own economic and security priorities, and navigating its relationship with Russia. Is this a moment of fragmentation – or the beginning of a more coherent European stance?
Produced by Stephen Farrell.
 
Chatham House's latest:
Comment | A Taiwan crisis would cause far more global economic damage than Strait of Hormuz disruption
News release | Lord Robertson: UK's 'naïve belief' the US 'will always be there' has diminished its defence capabilities
Comment | Israel's accelerating de facto annexation of the West Bank has dangerous implications
Magazine issue | Spring issue of The World Today
Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧
Audio | Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧
Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.

From Hormuz to Hungary and the Vatican to the Federal Reserve, it has been an unusually contentious week for the White House, even by the standards of President Trump's second administration.
This week's podcast comes from the US, where our analysts assess the political and economic state of the US as it begins gearing up for the midterm elections.
 
From New York, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox and Director of the US and North America Programme, Laurel Rapp, are joined by David Lubin, Senior Research Fellow in the Global Economy and Finance Programme, who is in Washington for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank's annual Spring Meetings to discuss the global economy and financial markets.
 
The panel discuss the Iran ceasefire, nuclear negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the health of the global economy, a setback for one Trump ally in Budapest and domestic criticism for President Trump over tensions between the White House and Pope Leo.
For further reading, see David Lubin's commentary 'Dollar dominance is surviving the Iran war - just about'  
Produced by Stephen Farrell.
 
Chatham House's latest:
Comment | How to keep the Strait of Hormuz open in the long term
Comment | Lebanon–Israel talks must be given a chance
Comment | Hungary election: Orbán has been defeated – but will Orbánism survive?
Magazine issue | Spring issue of The World Today
Audio | The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧
Audio | Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧
Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.

China prepared in advance for a US attack on Iran. But many of its Asian neighbours have been hit hard because their economies were heavily reliant on energy imports from the Gulf. 
 
In the short-term, the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered rationing, and shortages of diesel, gas and fertiliser. Does that set a negative precedent for other choke points across the world? 
 
In the longer-term the war may force Asian nations into deeper reckonings: to reassess supply chains, economic strategies and whether the US can be trusted as a stable ally. 
 
Why hasn't China supported Iran more? Will the standoff over Hormuz tempt Beijing to flex its muscles over the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea? How will Pakistan leverage its status as negotiator? Will the countries of southeast Asia follow through on calls for more regional integration of energy supplies? 
 
To discuss these issues, and more, Ben Bland, Director of the Asia-Pacific Programme, hosts this week's Independent Thinking podcast, standing in for Bronwen Maddox. He is joined by two of his Chatham House colleagues: Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow for China; and Chietigj Bajpaee, Senior Research Fellow for South Asia.
Read our latest:
News release | Syrian President al-Sharaa on Iran war: 'Syria will remain outside this conflict'
Comment | The Iran war risks triggering a new wave of nuclear proliferation
Comment | Spectator, beneficiary, player: Russia's strategy in the Iran war, from oil to drones
Comment | Iraqi civilians are paying the price of the Iran war
 Produced by Stephen Farrell.
 Read the Spring issue of The World Today
Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 
Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧
Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

An earlier than usual episode of the Independent Thinking podcast, ahead of the Easter break.

In a one-on-one conversation, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox discusses energy with Sir Dieter Helm, Professor of Economic Policy at the University of Oxford, who has been advising governments and writing on energy, water and the environment for decades.
They examine how energy policies of different governments over decades led to the UK's energy costs being so high. And what the government should do if it wants to guarantee security of supply – and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Are those concerned about climate change right to push for net zero? Are current policies driving industry from the UK? Should there be more nuclear power stations, or more drilling in the North Sea?
Read our latest:
The Iran war risks triggering a new wave of nuclear proliferation
Any Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon will work to Hezbollah's advantage
Moscow internet blackouts: the Kremlin tightens its grip on Russia's digital space
Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell.
Read the Spring issue of The World Today 
Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 
Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧
Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

One month on from the start of the US and Israeli war on Iran, governments worldwide are trying to assess the scale of its long-term impact on the global economy and political system.
Much will depend on how long the conflict continues, and how long Iran blocks fuel exports and other cargo vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The White House and Iran have sent conflicting signals about whether negotiations are under way, even as thousands of US troops head to the Middle East. And even if President Trump secures a ceasefire with Iran, it is unclear if US and Israel are aligned on their visions for an end game.
Our panel assesses whether the world is headed for a 1973-style shock to the global economic system, pushing up inflation and cutting growth. And how Europe, Russia, China, and other nations will deal with a crisis that has disrupted energy flows and supply chains.
Joining regular host Bronwen Maddox are David Lubin, senior research fellow in Chatham House's Global Economy and Finance Programme, and Grégoire Roos, director of our Europe, Russia, and Eurasia programmes. 
Read our latest:
Starmer's handling of Trump and Iran reflects public opinion, but shows the limits of UK power
Any Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon will work to Hezbollah's advantage
Spectator, beneficiary, player: Russia's strategy in the Iran war, from oil to drones
Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell.
Read the Spring issue of The World Today 
Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 
Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧
Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.