Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan substack returns to catch us up on the new Prime Minister. We get into what Takaichii's deal is, chart her rise to power, explore the domestic constraints she'll operate under, and what she will mean for Japan's international relations and defense policy.
Chapters:
00:00 Election Upset and Political Drama
07:43 The Rise of Takaichi, Her Political Background and Style
24:27 National Defense and International Relations
40:58 Coalition Challenges and Government Stability
48:33 Implications of a Minority Government
01:03:47 How She'll Do With Trump
Outtro Music: Gotta - Tade Dust
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1:14:28
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1:14:28
Ukraine's Drone War with Shashank and Rob Lee
Joining the pod today are Rob Lee of FPRI, Shashank Joshi of the Economist, and Tony Stark of the Breaking Beijing substack.
We discuss…
Whether Ukraine represents a revolution in military affairs and what lessons the war holds for other theaters
Why roughly 80% of casualties in Ukraine are caused by UAVs, and the symbiotic relationship between artillery and drones,
The limits of FPVs and UAVs, tactics to counter UAV attacks, and the role of unmanned ground vehicles,
Institutional friction within the Ukrainian forces,
How Chinese components and commercial drones from DJI are shaping the battlefield.
Drone incidents over Europe, burden sharing, and the US policy climate.
Outro music: Leon Bridges and Khruangbin - Texas Sun, a song that made it onto a 2022 playlist a reporter made of songs they heard on the front in Ukraine (https://open.spotify.com/playlist/72paG2c3VqKblZsZlsCBOx?si=ace9197c40c6440f)
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1:38:45
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1:38:45
PLA Purges and How Xi Rules with Jon Czin
Jon Czin spent years as a top China analyst at the CIA, served as China Director on Biden’s National Security Council, and now works at the Brookings Institution. We discuss what Xi’s fourth-term means for China’s top leadership and military, Taiwan, and the US. We cover:
How Xi’s mafioso-style “decapitation strategy” has kept the PLA in line and why he’s purged more generals than Mao.
Cognitive decline and how end-of-life thinking might be shaping Xi’s succession plans and Taiwan strategy.
Tariffs, rare earths, and China’s appetite for pain vs. America’s.
Beijing’s parochialism and its limits in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
What intelligence work on China actually looks like and whether or not Xi’s era is duller than previous generations.
Plus: who might succeed Xi, comparing the Politburo Standing Committee to a frat house, and why chips and TSMC matter much less in Xi’s Taiwan calculus than most think.
Outtro Music:
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1:54:37
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1:54:37
Second Breakfast: Venezuela, Shutdowns, PE + Army, E.B. Sledge
Bryan, Eric, and Justin join the fun.
00:00 Venezuela
16:08 Shutdown Effects on Military Operations
34:45 The PE Army Takeover + Datacenters
46:32 Submarine Detection and Naval Strategy
48:44 Sledge
Outtro Music: Botaste la Bola, Un Solo Pueblo
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52:10
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52:10
Second Breakfast: Gaza, SOUTHCOM, AI Nuke Analogies Stink, Generals Using AI (with M. Horowitz and L. Kahn!)
Guests today include Michael Horowitz (Penn now, in the Biden years was DAS for Force Development and Emerging Capabilities + Director of the Emerging Capabilities Policy Office) and Lauren Kahn (worked with Michael in the DoD, now at CSET).
The book that Mike recommended is free to download online! https://history.army.mil/portals/143/Images/Publications/catalog/30-4.pdf
Outtro Music: The Shirelles, Soldier Boy
00:00 Gaza and the Middle East Peace Process
06:26 US-Latin American Policy and Military Engagement
10:38 AI and Nuclear Weapons: A Seductive Analogy
17:47 Nuclear Energy vs. AI: Lessons in Governance
20:02 The Future of AI in Military Operations
31:46 Transforming Military Lessons with AI
37:38 Operational Surprise and Historical Context
45:55 Social Acceptability of Military Technologies
57:59 Ethics and Accuracy in AI Warfare
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Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider.
Check out the newsletter at https://www.chinatalk.media/
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