ChinaTalk

To make sense of it we have Chris McGuire, senior fellow for China and Emerging Technologies at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former NSC Deputy Senior Director for Technology and National Security.

We discuss…

The May 2025 decision that made Megaspeed possible — Commerce stopped enforcing the Biden-era license rule for big chip orders to third countries, never replaced it, and $80 billion in AI chips went to Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand this year alone

Why the spy matters more than the affair — Jensen talks chip policy with the president, knows who has what compute, and decides who gets it next

The defensive briefing nobody gave — why not warning Jensen was a choice rather than an oversight, and how Commerce sat on the intelligence while $4.8 billion in chips shipped

Corruption or incompetence — Cantor Fitzgerald's Nvidia position, an under secretary who never explains the policy, and a Commerce investigation discussed with the target's main business partner

What the lame duck can fix — MATCH, RASA, and OVERWATCH, plus the smuggling and remote-access loopholes only Commerce can close

A brief history of honey traps — Jael's tent peg, Cold War Romeos, and the compromised officer who got parked at the Hoover Institution

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The gang returns and rebrands!

Note: we recorded this Friday afternoon, before the FT reported that 'US believes Nvidia’s Huang had romantic relationship with alleged Chinese spy

Kevin Xu of Interconnected, Matt Klein of The Overshoot, and Peter Harrell of Georgetown Law, who ran international economics at Biden’s NSC, asked in January whether America was cooked. Now they’re voting on a rebrand: Are We Cooking?

We discuss…

What to undo, what to keep — repealing the Canada tariffs, reining in Section 232’s creep into kitchen cabinets, and keeping Trump’s rare earths deals with conflict-of-interest rules attached.

Make Big Tech pay — Kevin’s plan to turn bipartisan fury at data centers into a pro-labor, pro-build agenda that could win back union voters, and with them the White House.

Sixty bucks a head — why OpenAI’s community pledges amount to political malpractice, and how Virginia’s Data Center Alley turned server farms into property tax cuts.

Pause China’s AI too — why a Democratic Congress may finally codify tougher chip controls, with an affordability pitch built on rising memory prices.

The alleged spy in Jensen Huang’s orbit — why the FBI’s routine defensive warning apparently never came, and what Beijing could want from Nvidia’s CEO that it isn’t already getting.

Beijing’s midterm math — what a blue wave does to the value of any deal Trump brings home from Shenzhen, and why China is squeezing Europe instead.

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Joining me for WarTalk’s post-midterms edition are regulars Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute, Special Forces veteran Justin McIntosh, and former House staffer Tony Stark.

We discuss…

Why Iran holds the cards now — a blockade too slow for the White House’s clock, half the deployed Navy pinned down, and Tehran’s likely asks, from reparations to a strait toll.

The war Congress won’t pay for — why no NDAA or appropriations bill moves while the shooting continues, and the one-line rider that could end it.

Hegseth’s impeachment math — articles due Monday, how many Senate Republicans might break, and the 1876 Secretary of War who raced to resign minutes before the House vote.

Defense tech after the wave — why a big Democratic majority may be kinder to the topline, the coming scrutiny of politically connected contracts, and Starshield’s governance problem.

Who does the oversight — Tony’s new guide to being a good staffer, and why the Pentagon keeps 23-year-old aides in the dark.

The WarTalk Book Club debuts — Harold Coyle’s Team Yankee as a case study for company commanders, why mil-fic makes me uneasy, and proof that officers have never read.

Plus, I had Claude rebuild the original Team Yankee board game. Play a friend or the AI here (https://claude.ai/artifact/7LyRbALwL11FnqZWsqC9Rp). Next book: Tonio Andrade’s The Gunpowder Age.

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You can read a translation into English of this interview here: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/how-to-make-fun-of-chinese-ai

Xianyu (咸鱼), the writer behind 葬AI — “Funeral AI” — produces some of the best satire out there about China’s AI industry. ChinaTalk Substack readers may remember his essay “Open Models Are the United Front of AI”.In this conversation, Irene and Xianyu talk (in Chinese) about:

Why AI writing isn’t funny;

How Xianyu made a website for ordinary people to rank video model by meme-ability;

Why Five Year Plans are a kind of benchmark;

And why there’s so much Chinglish in AI.

We also disagree about where the hype is worse: China or America.
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The blockade is squeezing Iran. So why does it keep being easier to press the war button?

WarTalk regulars Jordan Schneider, Justin McIntosh, Bryan Clark, and Tony Stark.

Why the strikes continue when the blockade is doing the real work, and what running the war off two carriers costs the Navy.

Combatant commanders pitching the president their own wars, and whether Cuba is next.

The myth that a more lethal military would have won in Afghanistan.

The Joint Staff J-5’s firing, and what it says about a Pentagon that’s stopped planning.

Plus: join the Navy, see the world (mostly the Iranian coast), and letting AI pick the next war.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:20 Iran and the midterms

00:10:20 Is Cuba next?

00:24:37 Jensen, spies, and the J-5 firing

00:42:07 The Afghanistan myth
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