The Chuck ToddCast

DDHQ elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley joins the Chuck ToddCast to break down a genuinely seismic night. Democrats flipped both chambers, taking at least seven Republican Senate seats — Talarico over Paxton in Texas, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Annie Andrews over Darline Graham in South Carolina, Troy Jackson unseating Susan Collins, El-Sayed over Rogers in Michigan — with Skelley arguing 56 seats is more likely than not once counting finishes. Texas Democrats swept every statewide race, Hinojosa beat Abbott, and Skelley calls the state officially purple and a plausible 2028 presidential battleground. The gerrymandering story is its own indictment: Republicans redrew five Texas seats and are projected to win one, while California’s Democratic map went five for five. Trump’s voters simply didn’t show up, young voters did, and Black turnout approached presidential levels.


Timeline:
00:00 Geoffrey Skelley joins The Chuck ToddCast
01:30 How generationally seismic was this?
03:00 Peltola, Alaska, and the path to 56 Senate seats
07:30 The gerrymanders that backfired — Texas, North Carolina, Arizona
17:30 How everyone missed the size of the wave
24:00 2024 voters wanted the pre-COVID economy and rebuked Trump instead
28:15 Nine of the ten biggest states now have Democratic governors
29:45 Texas is purple, and the battleground moves to the Sun Belt
38:00 Trump voters stayed home, young and Black voters surged
43:45 Mississippi, South Carolina, Kansas and Ohio as new battlegrounds
54:00 Alaska, Murkowski, and a possible Colorado sweep
58:00 The brutal 2028 Senate map for Republicans — and a bad day for JD Vance
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Chuck Todd calls it the Trump Tsunami — a total repudiation whose consequences will last a decade. His core argument is that this was an “and” election, not an “or” one: no single explanation accounts for a wave this size, but Trump broke both of his central promises (no new wars, lower costs) and then spent two years dismissively gaslighting voters about their own lived experience. The polling era underestimated Democrats again, the direction was set months ago, and Republicans lost up and down the ballot — including Texas, which Todd argues Trump personally cost them, with school vouchers a major factor in Abbott’s defeat. Turnout hit its highest level in a century. Democrats actually left Senate and governor seats on the table, with a path to 60 that didn’t materialize. Todd’s verdict: the Trump era is officially over, there’s now a vacuum in the GOP, and voters endorsed change rather than any ideology — which is why he argues Chuck Schumer, as the embodiment of the status quo, can’t be the answer.

Then, DDHQ elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley joins the Chuck ToddCast to break down a genuinely seismic night. Democrats flipped both chambers, taking at least seven Republican Senate seats — Talarico over Paxton in Texas, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Annie Andrews over Darline Graham in South Carolina, Troy Jackson unseating Susan Collins, El-Sayed over Rogers in Michigan — with Skelley arguing 56 seats is more likely than not once counting finishes. Texas Democrats swept every statewide race, Hinojosa beat Abbott, and Skelley calls the state officially purple and a plausible 2028 presidential battleground. The gerrymandering story is its own indictment: Republicans redrew five Texas seats and are projected to win one, while California’s Democratic map went five for five. Trump’s voters simply didn’t show up, young voters did, and Black turnout approached presidential levels.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football and reacts to the first College Football Playoff rankings.


Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
00:30 Thank you for watching The Projection
05:00 The Trump Tsunami and a decade of consequences
06:30 Why this was an “and” election with no single explanation
09:30 Comparing it to 2006, and how the polls missed again
13:00 Two broken promises and a president who dismissed voters
16:15 Big tech’s new political problem after betting on Trump
18:30 The Trump era is officially over — and he cost the GOP Texas
23:00 Mandates that weren’t, vouchers, and why Abbott lost
26:15 The battleground map has changed, and the seats Democrats left behind
30:30 Voters endorsed change, not an ideology
34:00 Will Democrats actually govern? And where Trump might deal
36:45 The fight for the GOP’s future and the end of JD Vance?
40:45 Why a change election demands new Democratic leadership
50:30 Geoffrey Skelley joins The Chuck ToddCast
52:00 How generationally seismic was this?
53:30 Peltola, Alaska, and the path to 56 Senate seats
58:00 The gerrymanders that backfired — Texas, North Carolina, Arizona
1:08:00 How everyone missed the size of the wave
1:14:30 2024 voters wanted the pre-COVID economy and rebuked Trump instead
1:18:45 Nine of the ten biggest states now have Democratic governors
1:20:15 Texas is purple, and the battleground moves to the Sun Belt
1:28:30 Trump voters stayed home, young and Black voters surged
1:34:15 Mississippi, South Carolina, Kansas and Ohio as new battlegrounds
1:44:30 Alaska, Murkowski, and a possible Colorado sweep
1:48:30 The brutal 2028 Senate map for Republicans & a bad day for JD Vance
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd calls it the Trump Tsunami — a total repudiation whose consequences will last a decade. His core argument is that this was an “and” election, not an “or” one: no single explanation accounts for a wave this size, but Trump broke both of his central promises (no new wars, lower costs) and then spent two years dismissively gaslighting voters about their own lived experience. The polling era underestimated Democrats again, the direction was set months ago, and Republicans lost up and down the ballot — including Texas, which Todd argues Trump personally cost them, with school vouchers a major factor in Abbott’s defeat. Turnout hit its highest level in a century. Democrats actually left Senate and governor seats on the table, with a path to 60 that didn’t materialize. Chuck’s verdict: the Trump era is officially over, there’s now a vacuum in the GOP, and voters endorsed change rather than any ideology — which is why he argues Chuck Schumer, as the embodiment of the status quo, can’t be the answer.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football and reacts to the first College Football Playoff rankings.


Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
00:30 Thank you for watching The Projection
05:00 The Trump Tsunami and a decade of consequences
06:30 Why this was an “and” election with no single explanation
09:30 Comparing it to 2006, and how the polls missed again
13:00 Two broken promises and a president who dismissed voters
16:15 Big tech’s new political problem after betting on Trump
18:30 The Trump era is officially over — and he cost the GOP Texas
23:00 Mandates that weren’t, vouchers, and why Abbott lost
26:15 The battleground map has changed, and the seats Democrats left behind
30:30 Voters endorsed change, not an ideology
34:00 Will Democrats actually govern? And where Trump might deal
36:45 The fight for the GOP’s future and the end of JD Vance?
40:45 Why a change election demands new Democratic leadership
48:30 Ask Chuck
48:45 Is the dream of primary reform dead?
50:45 Could McConnell’s candidate selection strategy have weakened the wave?
52:45 How will the lame duck play out?
56:15 Will 2028 play out like 2026, or can the GOP change course enough in two years?
1:00:15 College football preview
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Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande continue their deep dive into the history of Ohio State football, exploring the bitter rivalries, coaching scandals, and relentless pursuit of greatness that shaped one of college football's most successful dynasties.
From Woody Hayes' infamous downfall to the controversies surrounding Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer, they examine how the Buckeyes survived decades of turmoil and built a powerhouse that continues under Ryan Day.
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It’s Election Day, and Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza arrive at a binary: either Democrats pick up seven Senate seats tonight, or the polling industry has to be blown up and rebuilt. The final Times/Siena polls put Democrats ahead in all seven states that will decide the Senate, with only Iowa and Alaska inside a point, and the final NBC survey has Democrats up seven, independents going Democratic by 21, and Trump at 40 percent approval — his worst of either term. Their real question is whether the political class is underselling it, since every predictive metric points the same way and Chuck thinks the polling error is as likely to break toward Democrats as against them. Plus: a walk back through one deranged cycle, Chuck’s coma test for why Iowa tells the whole story, what a sweep actually means in Washington, why leading with impeachment would be the dumbest available move, and Miami at Notre Dame. The Projection, their election-night stream with Decision Desk HQ, starts at 6 p.m. Eastern.
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Timeline
00:00 Election Day, Chuck’s playlist, and one genuinely crazy midterm cycle
08:00 Liberation Day, Virginia as the forecaster, and the chart behind the collapse
14:00 The final polls: how the electorate moved, and a pollster’s own warning
20:00 Either Democrats pick up seven seats, or the polling industry is dead
28:00 Kalshi’s last coin flip, Chris Murphy, and the Iowa coma test
34:00 If there’s a wave: tariffs first, impeachment last, and can Jeffries govern?
44:00 The Projection at 6 p.m., and Catholics versus Criminals
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