The Chuck ToddCast

Conservative writer Kevin Williamson — National Correspondent for The Dispatch and one of the sharpest voices on the right — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging and characteristically blunt conversation about Trump's Iran disaster, the collapse of the political parties, and what kind of country America is becoming. Williamson argues Trump made a colossal mistake getting into the Iran war and there's now no way out without national humiliation: the goals of the conflict have constantly been changing, and Trump effectively told the Iranians where his political weaknesses were and they called his bluff. He notes the absurdity of America blockading the Strait specifically because we're mad that it's been blockaded, observes that the firing hasn't actually ceased despite the supposed ceasefire, and offers a withering verdict on the president himself: "Trump is just not a smart guy, he's an insult artist," surrounded by people who don't have the nation's interests in mind. They explore whether China could end up being the country Trump needs to bail him out in Iran, whether a nuclear Iran could benefit Putin (would he actually sell them one?), and notes the Gulf states are tired of this. He warns that securing the Strait of Hormuz requires ground troops Trump is too afraid to commit, that the Iranian regime is nothing like Venezuela's and won't fold, and that Trump never prepared the country for pain at the pump.
The conversation broadens into Williamson's structural diagnosis of American politics, and his unsentimental view of where this is all headed. He argues that politics has become like religion, especially for the most religious, which is why Trump's coalition won't fracture even when farmers are being destroyed by Trump's own policies and still vote for him. He says Trump's declining popularity isn't restraining his decision-making at all, that Republicans are already assuming a midterm wipeout, and that Trump will be impeached if Democrats take the House — and should be — though he acknowledges it may not be the smartest political move. They dig into whether both American parties are at genuine risk of collapse, arguing their decline has been a huge loss for the country: celebrity and social media have filled the vacuum, with communication ability now mattering more than actual governing competence. He half-jokes that Taylor Swift could be president if she wanted to be, dismisses the idea that Stephen Colbert could carry a progressive banner, and closes with a genuinely dark prediction: America is losing its identity, may simply be too rich for its own good, and is heading for a low so bad that most Americans aren't prepared for it.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Kevin Williamson (The Dispatch) joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:15 Trump made a colossal mistake with Iran war
01:45 We can’t get out of Iran war without being humiliated
03:00 The goals of the war have constantly been changing
04:30 Iran can’t win a battle with the U.S. but its45 sphere of influence is bigger
06:00 Trump told the Iranians what his weaknesses are, they called his bluff
07:00 The firing has not ceased, there’s no actual ceasefire
07:30 We’re blockading a Strait because we’re mad it’s blockaded…
08:30 Trump is just not a smart guy, he’s an insult artist
09:15 The people around Trump don’t have the nation's interests in mind
10:00 Rubio looks good because the people around Trump are so bad
12:00 Will China be the country Trump needs to bail him out in Iran?
13:00 Iran having a nuke could benefit Putin, would he sell them one?
14:30 Trump didn’t prepare the country for pain at the pump
15:45 We could really use our European allies that we spurned
16:30 Unclear if Iran would accept a JCPOA style deal now
19:30 50 years after the revolution, Iranian regime hasn’t changed priorities
21:00 The gulf states have influence over Trump and they’re tired of this
23:15 Gulf states probably assumed Trump would go for regime change
24:30 The Iranian regime is nothing like the regime in Venezuela
26:00 The rural vs urban divide leads to failed democratic states
27:45 Trump’s declining popularity isn’t restraining his decision making
28:45 Republicans are already assuming a wipeout in the midterms
29:15 Trump will be impeached with a Dem majority in the house, and should be
30:00 Impeaching Trump may not be best option politically, but the right thing to do
32:30 Securing the Strait requires ground troops, which is terrible politics
33:15 Trump is a coward, and afraid of the risk of using ground troops
35:00 Trump doesn’t want to get into an open ended occupation of Iran
35:30 Unlikely that Trump’s coalition fractures, it’s a personality cult
36:45 Farmers are being destroyed by Trump, yet many still support him
38:00 Politics has become like religion, especially to the most religious
39:15 Kevin quit the GOP over Arlen Spector, which now seems quaint
41:00 What kind of conservative do you consider yourself to be?
45:30 Are both American parties at risk of collapse? Could another party emerge?
46:15 The parties matter less now than before Trump was elected
47:00 The decline of the parties has been a huge loss
48:00 Celebrity & social media has filled the gap left by the parties
49:15 Stephen Colbert is unlikely to be the celebrity to carry the progressive banner
50:30 Taylor Swift could be president if she wanted to
51:30 Communication is the winning trait of politicians now, not ability
54:30 We’re losing our American identity, maybe too rich for our own good
56:00 We’re going to hit a low that’s so bad, Americans aren’t prepared for it
57:45 The next election is not going to solve our problems
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the latest from the Iran war: the Saudis have now denied the U.S. military access to strikes from their bases and airspace, the U.S. cannot claim any net positive from this conflict, and Trump's best realistic outcome is some version of the Obama nuclear deal 2.0. He notes that both sides are being squeezed — Iran can't keep this going forever either — but warns that beyond the immediate political damage to Trump, the war has handed China tremendous long-term leverage, AI spending is the only reason the U.S. economy hasn't already tanked, and asymmetric warfare has once again proven it can beat superpower militaries. He argues Trump's request for $1 billion in taxpayer funds for a White House ballroom is political suicide — if Obama had made the same ask, the media firestorm would have been deafening — and that Congress approving the money would be handing Democrats an enormous political gift. He flags the FBI's new investigation into Virginia Democrat Louise Lucas, warns that nothing coming from Trump's DOJ can be trusted at face value, and argues the trumped-up charges against James Comey create reasonable doubt about every other case the administration brings. He warns the administration is actively poking the bear with African American voters in ways that could supercharge Black turnout and reshape the midterm calculus, flags the FBI investigation related to The Atlantic's story on Kash Patel's drinking (the bureau denies investigating the reporter, but the careful language suggests a leak investigation exists. He closes with a beautiful and personal commencement-style address to the graduating class of 2026 as his daughter prepares to walk.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:30 Saudis have denied U.S. military access to bases & airspace
06:00 Trump is only going to get the nuclear deal 2.0 at best
07:30 Iran can’t keep this going as well, both sides being squeezed
08:30 U.S. can’t claim any net positive from this war
09:30 This is bad for Trump politically, but it’s bad for the US long-term
10:15 Trump has handed China tremendous leverage
11:00 AI spending is the only reason the U.S. economy hasn’t tanked
12:30 Asymmetric warfare beats superpower militaries
14:15 Greenlighting $1B in taxpayer funds for ballroom is political suicide
15:15 If Obama made the same ask, there would be a media firestorm
16:00 Congress giving Dems a huge political gift by approving funds
17:15 FBI launches investigation into Virginia dem Louise Lucas
18:30 You can’t trust the narratives from Trump’s DOJ
20:00 Trumped up charges against Comey create doubt in other cases
20:45 Administration is poking the bear with African Americans voters
22:00 Supercharged black turnout would change midterm election calculus
23:00 FBI investigation into Atlantic story about Kash Patel’s drinking
23:45 FBI denies investigating the reporter who broke the story
24:30 Denial language suggests a leak investigation exists
26:00 Worried about the future and for this graduating class
28:30 Chuck’s advice for the graduating class of 2026
29:15 Graduates are heading into a very uncertain future
29:45 Adulthood is not a race, don’t always need to hurry
31:00 The first job you take isn’t your forever job
32:00 Don’t confuse a setback with failure
32:45 Respect your elders and respect experience
35:00 Don’t be embarrassed by your struggles or disregard someone else’s
36:00 Life happens. Don’t wait for the perfect time for something
37:15 Road trips are the best way to learn about America
38:15 Don’t be a “Yeah, but” person
40:00 Life is not a competition with your friends’ lives
40:45 It takes a lot of hard work to get lucky
42:00 Sorry that we’ve brought grads into a very angry America
42:30 Talk to people who disagree with you
43:30 If you only experience America through an algorithm, you’ll misunderstand it
47:45 Ask Chuck
48:00 How would you approach teaching, more depth or more breadth?
52:30 Should we pay members of congress more?
56:15 What can make local law enforcement a more enticing job?
1:01:45 How does Trump’s drift towards lame-duck status play out?
1:06:15 Why do you think redistricting would create an electoral backlash?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the latest from the Iran war: the Saudis have now denied the U.S. military access to strikes from their bases and airspace, the U.S. cannot claim any net positive from this conflict, and Trump's best realistic outcome is some version of the Obama nuclear deal 2.0. He notes that both sides are being squeezed — Iran can't keep this going forever either — but warns that beyond the immediate political damage to Trump, the war has handed China tremendous long-term leverage, AI spending is the only reason the U.S. economy hasn't already tanked, and asymmetric warfare has once again proven it can beat superpower militaries. He argues Trump's request for $1 billion in taxpayer funds for a White House ballroom is political suicide — if Obama had made the same ask, the media firestorm would have been deafening — and that Congress approving the money would be handing Democrats an enormous political gift. He flags the FBI's new investigation into Virginia Democrat Louise Lucas, warns that nothing coming from Trump's DOJ can be trusted at face value, and argues the trumped-up charges against James Comey create reasonable doubt about every other case the administration brings. He warns the administration is actively poking the bear with African American voters in ways that could supercharge Black turnout and reshape the midterm calculus, flags the FBI investigation related to The Atlantic's story on Kash Patel's drinking (the bureau denies investigating the reporter, but the careful language suggests a leak investigation exists. He closes with a beautiful and personal commencement-style address to the graduating class of 2026 as his daughter prepares to walk.
Then, conservative writer Kevin Williamson — National Correspondent for The Dispatch and one of the sharpest voices on the right — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging and characteristically blunt conversation about Trump's Iran disaster, the collapse of the political parties, and what kind of country America is becoming. Williamson argues Trump made a colossal mistake getting into the Iran war and there's now no way out without national humiliation: the goals of the conflict have constantly been changing, and Trump effectively told the Iranians where his political weaknesses were and they called his bluff. He notes the absurdity of America blockading the Strait specifically because we're mad that it's been blockaded, observes that the firing hasn't actually ceased despite the supposed ceasefire, and offers a withering verdict on the president himself: "Trump is just not a smart guy, he's an insult artist," surrounded by people who don't have the nation's interests in mind. They explore whether China could end up being the country Trump needs to bail him out in Iran, whether a nuclear Iran could benefit Putin (would he actually sell them one?), and notes the Gulf states are tired of this. He warns that securing the Strait of Hormuz requires ground troops Trump is too afraid to commit, that the Iranian regime is nothing like Venezuela's and won't fold, and that Trump never prepared the country for pain at the pump.
The conversation broadens into Williamson's structural diagnosis of American politics, and his unsentimental view of where this is all headed. He argues that politics has become like religion, especially for the most religious, which is why Trump's coalition won't fracture even when farmers are being destroyed by Trump's own policies and still vote for him. He says Trump's declining popularity isn't restraining his decision-making at all, that Republicans are already assuming a midterm wipeout, and that Trump will be impeached if Democrats take the House — and should be — though he acknowledges it may not be the smartest political move. They dig into whether both American parties are at genuine risk of collapse, arguing their decline has been a huge loss for the country: celebrity and social media have filled the vacuum, with communication ability now mattering more than actual governing competence. He half-jokes that Taylor Swift could be president if she wanted to be, dismisses the idea that Stephen Colbert could carry a progressive banner, and closes with a genuinely dark prediction: America is losing its identity, may simply be too rich for its own good, and is heading for a low so bad that most Americans aren't prepared for it.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:30 Saudis have denied U.S. military access to bases & airspace
06:00 Trump is only going to get the nuclear deal 2.0 at best
07:30 Iran can’t keep this going as well, both sides being squeezed
08:30 U.S. can’t claim any net positive from this war
09:30 This is bad for Trump politically, but it’s bad for the US long-term
10:15 Trump has handed China tremendous leverage
11:00 AI spending is the only reason the U.S. economy hasn’t tanked
12:30 Asymmetric warfare beats superpower militaries
14:15 Greenlighting $1B in taxpayer funds for ballroom is political suicide
15:15 If Obama made the same ask, there would be a media firestorm
16:00 Congress giving Dems a huge political gift by approving funds
17:15 FBI launches investigation into Virginia dem Louise Lucas
18:30 You can’t trust the narratives from Trump’s DOJ
20:00 Trumped up charges against Comey create doubt in other cases
20:45 Administration is poking the bear with African Americans voters
22:00 Supercharged black turnout would change midterm election calculus
23:00 FBI investigation into Atlantic story about Kash Patel’s drinking
23:45 FBI denies investigating the reporter who broke the story
24:30 Denial language suggests a leak investigation exists
26:00 Worried about the future and for this graduating class
28:30 Chuck’s advice for the graduating class of 2026
29:15 Graduates are heading into a very uncertain future
29:45 Adulthood is not a race, don’t always need to hurry
31:00 The first job you take isn’t your forever job
32:00 Don’t confuse a setback with failure
32:45 Respect your elders and respect experience
35:00 Don’t be embarrassed by your struggles or disregard someone else’s
36:00 Life happens. Don’t wait for the perfect time for something
37:15 Road trips are the best way to learn about America
38:15 Don’t be a “Yeah, but” person
40:00 Life is not a competition with your friends’ lives
40:45 It takes a lot of hard work to get lucky
42:00 Sorry that we’ve brought grads into a very angry America
42:30 Talk to people who disagree with you
43:30 If you only experience America through an algorithm, you’ll misunderstand it
47:45 Kevin Williamson (The Dispatch) joins The Chuck ToddCast
49:00 Trump made a colossal mistake with Iran war
49:30 We can’t get out of Iran war without being humiliated
50:45 The goals of the war have constantly been changing
52:15 Iran can’t win a battle with the U.S. but its sphere of influence is bigger
53:45 Trump told the Iranians what his weaknesses are, they called his bluff
54:45 The firing has not ceased, there’s no actual ceasefire
55:15 We’re blockading a Strait because we’re mad it’s blockaded…
56:15 Trump is just not a smart guy, he’s an insult artist
57:00 The people around Trump don’t have the nation's interests in mind
57:45 Rubio looks good because the people around Trump are so bad
59:45 Will China be the country Trump needs to bail him out in Iran?
1:00:45 Iran having a nuke could benefit Putin, would he sell them one?
1:02:15 Trump didn’t prepare the country for pain at the pump
1:03:30 We could really use our European allies that we spurned
1:04:15 Unclear if Iran would accept a JCPOA style deal now
1:07:15 50 years after the revolution, Iranian regime hasn’t changed priorities
1:08:45 The gulf states have influence over Trump and they’re tired of this
1:11:00 Gulf states probably assumed Trump would go for regime change
1:12:15 The Iranian regime is nothing like the regime in Venezuela
1:13:45 The rural vs urban divide leads to failed democratic states
1:15:30 Trump’s declining popularity isn’t restraining his decision making
1:16:30 Republicans are already assuming a wipeout in the midterms
1:17:00 Trump will be impeached with a Dem majority in the house, and should be
1:17:45 Impeaching Trump may not be best option politically, but the right thing to do
1:20:15 Securing the Strait requires ground troops, which is terrible politics
1:21:00 Trump is a coward, and afraid of the risk of using ground troops
1:22:45 Trump doesn’t want to get into an open ended occupation of Iran
1:23:15 Unlikely that Trump’s coalition fractures, it’s a personality cult
1:24:30 Farmers are being destroyed by Trump, yet many still support him
1:25:45 Politics has become like religion, especially to the most religious
1:27:00 Kevin quit the GOP over Arlen Spector, which now seems quaint
1:28:45 What kind of conservative do you consider yourself to be?
1:33:15 Are both American parties at risk of collapse? Could another party emerge?
1:34:00 The parties matter less now than before Trump was elected
1:34:45 The decline of the parties has been a huge loss
1:35:45 Celebrity & social media has filled the gap left by the parties
1:37:00 Stephen Colbert is unlikely to be the celebrity to carry the progressive banner
1:38:15 Taylor Swift could be president if she wanted to
1:39:15 Communication is the winning trait of politicians now, not ability
1:42:15 We’re losing our American identity, maybe too rich for our own good
1:43:45 We’re going to hit a low that’s so bad, Americans aren’t prepared for it
1:45:30 The next election is not going to solve our problems
1:47:15 Ask Chuck
1:47:30 How would you approach teaching, more depth or more breadth?
1:52:00 Should we pay members of congress more?
1:55:45 What can make local law enforcement a more enticing job?
2:01:15 How does Trump’s drift towards lame-duck status play out?
2:05:45 Why do you think redistricting would create an electoral backlash?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the morning-after analysis of Indiana's primary results, which he says show Trump still has plenty of juice with his own party — roughly $13 million was spent to influence about 100,000 voters, and the results have created new urgency for Republican-led states across the South to redistrict before the midterms. He notes that being on the wrong side of Trump remains a career-ending move in the GOP, that Thomas Massie's upcoming primary will be a critical test of Trump's intra-party strength, and that Trump has effectively postponed the perception that he's a lame duck — even as the Iran war continues to crater his standing with the broader public. He flags Ohio as setting up to look like a real swing state in 2026, with Vivek Ramaswamy's polarizing style creating an opening for highly-regarded former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton, and notes that Iowa and Ohio could both move back toward genuine battleground status. Hethen walks through his fascinating recent participation in a political crisis simulation premised on the idea that January 6th wasn't an anomaly — three teams (Institutionalists, Nationalists, and Capitalists) competed for power, and the entire exercise revolved around who could get the capitalists on their side, since their core interest was simply enrichment and instability. The most revealing detail: in the simulation, Congress barely existed and had no measurable impact on outcomes, which Chuck argues mirrors reality and exposes the deeper problem facing American democracy. His blunt verdict: America doesn't actually have a polarization problem — it has a Congress problem, because weak legislatures inevitably create strong executives, Trump simply filled the vacuum a broken Congress created, and the looming gerrymandering wars (with at least eight states set to redraw their maps before 2028) will make Congress even less functional and more purely partisan than it already is.
Then, Ashley Trice and Rob Holbert — co-publishers of Lagniappe, the alt-weekly turned investigative newspaper covering Mobile and Alabama's Gulf Coast — join the Chuck Toddcast to share the origin story of how their independent publication has grown into the region's premier investigative voice. They explain how Lagniappe started as a free paper and has now transitioned to a subscription model behind a paywall, why most newspapers won't even print these days unless they're certain it won't cost them money (and the surprising fact that there's a national shortage of available printers), and how the paper has built its reputation by covering everything from Mobile's local government to scandals in the wealthy parts of town and irresistible animal stories — both of which they say reliably grow audience faster than anything else. Trice and Holbert preview the upcoming Tuberville-Jones gubernatorial race, which they expect to be surprisingly close, and offer a withering assessment of outgoing Governor Kay Ivey's "very inactive" tenure. They walk through the political divide in Alabama where coastal Mobile often feels left out of the conversation, the surprising audience appeal of youth and high school sports coverage, and the looming threat of the Nexstar-Tegna merger gutting even more local newsrooms across the country.
The conversation broadens into the practical realities of running a sustainable local newsroom in 2026. Trice and Holbert explain that the public has been trained to expect news for free, that reaching younger audiences now requires aggressive use of social media platforms and video content, and that live events have become an increasingly important revenue stream for papers like theirs. Trice and Holbert observe that small businesses are still reaching out about advertising — proof that print journalism continues to have a market — and close with a fascinating observation about how coastal Southern cities like Mobile tend to be less polarized than the rest of the South, with a genuine sense of community that gets lost in the national conversation about red-state politics.
Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 gubernatorial one-party droughts that are most likely to end in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:15 Indiana primaries show that Trump still has juice with his party
02:15 $13 million was spent to influence around 100k voters
04:15 Trump has created new urgency to redistrict in the south
05:30 Being on the wrong side of Trump will end your career in the GOP
06:15 Thomas Massie’s primary will be telling about Trump’s strength
08:15 Trump has postponed the perception that he’s a lame duck in his party
09:15 Iran is not going to get better for Trump, and the polling is brutal
11:30 Indiana showed that Trump hasn’t lost his fastball with the GOP
12:30 Ohio is setting up to look like a swing state in 2026
14:30 Vivek Ramaswamy is polarizing and has said some politically dumb things
16:30 Amy Acton is highly regarded for her leadership during Covid
18:30 It’s possible that Iowa and Ohio move back toward battleground status
19:00 Chuck participated in a political crisis simulation
21:15 Premise of simulation was January 6th wasn’t an anomaly
21:45 Three teams: Institutionalists, Nationalists and Capitalists
23:00 Entire simulation revolved around who could get capitalists on their side
24:30 Capitalists want enrichment & instability
25:15 In the simulation, congress barely existed, had no impact
26:15 Stress tests begin with the assumption congress is ineffective
26:45 Congress is supposed to be the strongest branch, but is now weakest
28:15 America doesn’t have a polarization problem, we have a congress problem
29:30 Weak legislatures create strong executives
30:45 We’ve suffered from a failure of imagination in the Trump era
31:30 Trump filled the vacuum that was created by a broken congress
33:30 The gerrymandering wars will make congress even less functional
34:00 At least 8 states will remap between now and 2028
36:00 Congress will be nothing but partisanship after all the gerrymandering
37:30 Don’t just assume that Democrats will pass a gerrymandering ban
39:00 Democracy feels vulnerable because congress doesn’t work
45:00 Ashley Trice & Rob Holbert (Lagniappe) join the Chuck ToddCast
46:30 Origin story of Lagniappe
48:45 The paper started off free, now is a subscription model behind paywall
50:30 Most papers wait to print unless they know it won’t cost them money
52:00 There’s a shortage of printers available for publications
54:15 Striving to be Alabama’s best investigative newspaper
56:15 Governor’s race between Tuberville & Jones will be close
58:00 Kay Ivey has been a very inactive governor
59:30 When did local governments understand you were going to cover them?
1:03:00 There’s a big political divide in Alabama, and Mobile feels left out
1:04:00 Is youth & high school sports an audience builder?
1:05:00 Scandals in the rich part of town & animal stories really grow audience
1:06:00 Nexstar & Tegna merger will gut more local newsrooms
1:07:45 People have been trained that they don’t have to pay for news
1:08:15 Have to use social media platforms & video to reach younger audience
1:10:00 What do you do in the live event space and are those money makers?
1:12:30 It takes more reporters for coverage that creates dedicated subscribers
1:14:30 Airbus & shipbuilding have been big economic growth drivers in Mobile
1:16:00 The “commuter schools” have really grown in recent years in Alabama
1:18:30 Are there formalized local news networks regionally that could help you?
1:20:00 No time to create networks, in a constant state of “news triage”
1:20:30 Small businesses still reach out about advertising
1:22:30 Print journalism still has a market
1:25:00 Coastal southern cities tend to be less polarized
1:25:45 There’s a real sense of community in southern coastal cities
1:27:00 Where can people find your work?
1:28:00 Alternative weekly’s have been able to become local papers of note
1:29:15 ToddCast Top 5 gubernatorial droughts likely to end in 2026
1:33:15 #5 Texas
1:36:15 #4 Alabama
1:39:45 #3 Georgia
1:42:15 #2 Ohio
1:46:30 #1 Iowa
1:47:15 Ask Chuck
1:47:30 With the national debt 100% of GDP, what are the risks if this continues?
1:56:00 Could a SCOTUS confirmation fight improve GOP chances in midterms?
2:01:15 Can the WHCD assailant plead insanity via Trump Derangement Syndrome?
2:04:45 Impact if Texas moved to closed primaries?
2:07:15 Is there any appetite in congress for uncapping the house?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the morning-after analysis of Indiana's primary results, which he says show Trump still has plenty of juice with his own party — roughly $13 million was spent to influence about 100,000 voters, and the results have created new urgency for Republican-led states across the South to redistrict before the midterms. He notes that being on the wrong side of Trump remains a career-ending move in the GOP, that Thomas Massie's upcoming primary will be a critical test of Trump's intra-party strength, and that Trump has effectively postponed the perception that he's a lame duck — even as the Iran war continues to crater his standing with the broader public. He flags Ohio as setting up to look like a real swing state in 2026, with Vivek Ramaswamy's polarizing style creating an opening for highly-regarded former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton, and notes that Iowa and Ohio could both move back toward genuine battleground status. He then walks through his fascinating recent participation in a political crisis simulation premised on the idea that January 6th wasn't an anomaly — three teams (Institutionalists, Nationalists, and Capitalists) competed for power, and the entire exercise revolved around who could get the capitalists on their side, since their core interest was simply enrichment and instability. The most revealing detail: in the simulation, Congress barely existed and had no measurable impact on outcomes, which Chuck argues mirrors reality and exposes the deeper problem facing American democracy. His blunt verdict: America doesn't actually have a polarization problem — it has a Congress problem, because weak legislatures inevitably create strong executives, Trump simply filled the vacuum a broken Congress created, and the looming gerrymandering wars (with at least eight states set to redraw their maps before 2028) will make Congress even less functional and more purely partisan than it already is.
Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 gubernatorial one-party droughts that are most likely to end in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:15 Indiana primaries show that Trump still has juice with his party
02:15 $13 million was spent to influence around 100k voters
04:15 Trump has created new urgency to redistrict in the south
05:30 Being on the wrong side of Trump will end your career in the GOP
06:15 Thomas Massie’s primary will be telling about Trump’s strength
08:15 Trump has postponed the perception that he’s a lame duck in his party
09:15 Iran is not going to get better for Trump, and the polling is brutal
11:30 Indiana showed that Trump hasn’t lost his fastball with the GOP
12:30 Ohio is setting up to look like a swing state in 2026
14:30 Vivek Ramaswamy is polarizing and has said some politically dumb things
16:30 Amy Acton is highly regarded for her leadership during Covid
18:30 It’s possible that Iowa and Ohio move back toward battleground status
19:00 Chuck participated in a political crisis simulation
21:15 Premise of simulation was January 6th wasn’t an anomaly
21:45 Three teams: Institutionalists, Nationalists and Capitalists
23:00 Entire simulation revolved around who could get capitalists on their side
24:30 Capitalists want enrichment & instability
25:15 In the simulation, congress barely existed, had no impact
26:15 Stress tests begin with the assumption congress is ineffective
26:45 Congress is supposed to be the strongest branch, but is now weakest
28:15 America doesn’t have a polarization problem, we have a congress problem
29:30 Weak legislatures create strong executives
30:45 We’ve suffered from a failure of imagination in the Trump era
31:30 Trump filled the vacuum that was created by a broken congress
33:30 The gerrymandering wars will make congress even less functional
34:00 At least 8 states will remap between now and 2028
36:00 Congress will be nothing but partisanship after all the gerrymandering
37:30 Don’t just assume that Democrats will pass a gerrymandering ban
39:00 Democracy feels vulnerable because congress doesn’t work
44:15 ToddCast Top 5 gubernatorial droughts likely to end in 2026
48:15 #5 Texas
51:15 #4 Alabama
54:45 #3 Georgia
57:15 #2 Ohio
1:01:30 #1 Iowa
1:02:15 Ask Chuck
1:02:30 With the national debt 100% of GDP, what are the risks if this continues?
1:11:00 Could a SCOTUS confirmation fight improve GOP chances in midterms?
1:16:15 Can the WHCD assailant plead insanity via Trump Derangement Syndrome?
1:19:45 Impact if Texas moved to closed primaries?
1:22:15 Is there any appetite in congress for uncapping the house?
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