The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd can’t find a single tea leaf that cuts against the blue wave. Early voting in Texas shows Latino turnout running ahead of the 2024 presidential, with the biggest jump among young Hispanic voters furious about ICE overreach. Florida Democrats are up 91% in early in-person voting despite rule changes designed to hurt them. Chuck’s deeper question: everyone assumes polling error favors Republicans — what if this is the cycle it breaks the other way? Meanwhile Trump has directed DOJ to preemptively sue Alaska to block certification if Dan Sullivan loses to Mary Peltola, is trying to invalidate 20,000 California ballots, and is attacking Lisa Murkowski — the most popular Republican in Alask. Plus Musk pouring another $78 million into GOP coffers (nearing half a billion this cycle) while a Russian company angles for a stake in an Alaska gas project discussed during Ukraine negotiations.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the long lasting impacts of Ronald Reagan’s “A Time For Choosing” speech and why persuasion should matter as much as performance in politics.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
09:00 The polling drought — and what if the error favors Democrats?
15:45 Latino turnout surges in Texas early voting
19:30 ICE overreach and the Hispanic backlash
23:00 Young voters, El-Sayed, and the Florida early vote
29:30 Searching for a counter-argument to the wave
32:15 Republicans have no closing argument
42:00 Easing tariffs to save Susan Collins
47:30 The Ramaswamy ad and what Trump’s delight in it reveals
57:30 Musk’s half-billion, Starlink, and the Skydance play
1:06:00 Novatek, Alaska gas, and Putin’s business dangles
1:13:00 Trump’s own tax breaks and rules that only bind other people
1:17:15 Suing to invalidate Alaska’s election
1:23:30 A president consumed by grievance in the final days
1:32:15 ToddCast Time Machine - Tuesday, October 27th 1964
1:33:30 Ronald Reagan gives “A Time For Choosing” speech
1:36:00 Goldwater’s victory was a rebuttal to the Republican establishment
1:37:30 Goldwater’s conservatism became synonymous with anti civil rights
1:39:15 Reagan travelled the country and honed his message
1:41:15 Reagan became capable of articulating conservatism to the country
1:42:30 Reagan didn’t try to “own the libs”, he tried to persuade people
1:45:45 Modern politics is too focused on the messenger, not the message
1:50:15 Performance has to lead to tangible governing results
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd can’t find a single tea leaf that cuts against the blue wave. Early voting in Texas shows Latino turnout running ahead of the 2024 presidential, with the biggest jump among young Hispanic voters furious about ICE overreach. Florida Democrats are up 91% in early in-person voting despite rule changes designed to hurt them. Chuck’s deeper question: everyone assumes polling error favors Republicans — what if this is the cycle it breaks the other way? Meanwhile Trump has directed DOJ to preemptively sue Alaska to block certification if Dan Sullivan loses to Mary Peltola, is trying to invalidate 20,000 California ballots, and is attacking Lisa Murkowski — the most popular Republican in Alask. Plus Musk pouring another $78 million into GOP coffers (nearing half a billion this cycle) while a Russian company angles for a stake in an Alaska gas project discussed during Ukraine negotiations.

Then, Thomas Nelson — Outagamie County Executive, former Wisconsin state assemblyman, and author of The Green and Gold Standard: A People’s History of the Green Bay Packers — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why the NFL’s only fan-owned franchise now faces an existential threat. The league has since banned the Packers’ nonprofit structure, and private equity has created what Nelson estimates is a $900 million disadvantage: a single owner can sell 49% to PE and retain complete control, while the Packers legally can’t sell to anyone. The crunch point is the escrow required for guaranteed contracts. Nelson argues the league owes it to Green Bay to make the team whole, walks through the three eras that built the franchise — Lambeau, Lombardi, and Harlan — and notes that without this model the Packers would have left town decades ago. Plus whether the community-ownership structure could be a template for local development, and a look at Wisconsin’s 50-50 politics heading into November.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the long lasting impacts of Ronald Reagan’s “A Time For Choosing” speech and why persuasion should matter as much as performance in politics.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
09:00 The polling drought — and what if the error favors Democrats?
15:45 Latino turnout surges in Texas early voting
19:30 ICE overreach and the Hispanic backlash
23:00 Young voters, El-Sayed, and the Florida early vote
29:30 Searching for a counter-argument to the wave
32:15 Republicans have no closing argument
42:00 Easing tariffs to save Susan Collins
47:30 The Ramaswamy ad and what Trump’s delight in it reveals
57:30 Musk’s half-billion, Starlink, and the Skydance play
1:06:00 Novatek, Alaska gas, and Putin’s business dangles
1:13:00 Trump’s own tax breaks and rules that only bind other people
1:17:15 Suing to invalidate Alaska’s election
1:23:30 A president consumed by grievance in the final days
1:33:00 Thomas Nelson joins The Chuck ToddCast
1:34:00 How a county executive ended up writing the definitive Packers history
1:37:30 The nonprofit structure, and why the NFL banned it
1:42:45 Private equity and a $900 million disadvantage
1:50:45 Guaranteed contracts, escrow, and where the money runs out
1:56:00 Could the Packers model work for data centers and local development?
1:59:45 Teams that relocate purely for tax breaks
2:02:15 Lambeau, Lombardi, Harlan — and the Aaron Rodgers problem
2:09:30 What the financial gap actually means on the field
2:12:15 Wisconsin as a 50-50 state and the chaos of the Senate primary
2:21:30 What LaFleur needs to keep his job
2:24:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Tuesday, October 27th 1964
2:25:15 Ronald Reagan gives “A Time For Choosing” speech
2:27:45 Goldwater’s victory was a rebuttal to the Republican establishment
2:29:15 Goldwater’s conservatism became synonymous with anti civil rights
2:31:00 Reagan travelled the country and honed his message
2:33:00 Reagan became capable of articulating conservatism to the country
2:34:15 Reagan didn’t try to “own the libs”, he tried to persuade people
2:37:30 Modern politics is too focused on the messenger, not the message
2:42:00 Performance has to lead to tangible governing results
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thomas Nelson — Outagamie County Executive, former Wisconsin state assemblyman, and author of The Green and Gold Standard: A People’s History of the Green Bay Packers — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why the NFL’s only fan-owned franchise now faces an existential threat. The league has since banned the Packers’ nonprofit structure, and private equity has created what Nelson estimates is a $900 million disadvantage: a single owner can sell 49% to PE and retain complete control, while the Packers legally can’t sell to anyone. The crunch point is the escrow required for guaranteed contracts. Nelson argues the league owes it to Green Bay to make the team whole, walks through the three eras that built the franchise — Lambeau, Lombardi, and Harlan — and notes that without this model the Packers would have left town decades ago. Plus whether the community-ownership structure could be a template for local development, and a look at Wisconsin’s 50-50 politics heading into November.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline:
00:00 Thomas Nelson joins The Chuck ToddCast
01:00 How a county executive ended up writing the definitive Packers history
04:30 The nonprofit structure, and why the NFL banned it
09:45 Private equity and a $900 million disadvantage
17:45 Guaranteed contracts, escrow, and where the money runs out
23:00 Could the Packers model work for data centers and local development?
26:45 Teams that relocate purely for tax breaks
29:15 Lambeau, Lombardi, Harlan — and the Aaron Rodgers problem
36:30 What the financial gap actually means on the field
39:15 Wisconsin as a 50-50 state and the chaos of the Senate primary
48:30 What LaFleur needs to keep his job
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens on the Wedgewood Polls scandal — a firm that admitted this week it fabricated its data as an “experiment,” after Mallory McMorrow says the fake numbers killed her Michigan Senate campaign. Chuck argues it’s worthy of a real investigation and that McMorrow should consider civil litigation. Then the main event: a NYT/Siena poll putting Democrats +11 on both the generic House and Senate ballots, with a clean sweep on issue favorability. At D+11, Chuck says Democrats net 40-50 House seats and win Ohio, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. The generational numbers are the ones that should terrify the GOP — only 15% of voters under 30 and 20% of millennials identify as Republican, and this electorate would have given Kamala Harris a 3-point win. Plus: Vance defending Ramaswamy’s Ohio ad on the grounds that all tactics are fair if you win.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the weekend in college football.
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For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
9:00 The fake polling scandal and separating good polls from bad
12:00 NYT/Siena: Democrats +11 and a clean sweep on the issues
17:00 The Habba pardon deal and Trump threatening voters
19:45 Why under-30 turnout decides this election
24:00 What D+11 actually means for the House and Senate map
30:00 The generational collapse of Republican identification
36:15 “Poor” economic conditions and Trump’s historic unpopularity
43:15 Every indicator says wave — but what if the polling error cuts the other way?
45:45 Talarico pulls away, and Democrats spend in Mississippi
51:00 How ugly politics locks good people out
54:00 Ramaswamy message-tested that ad — and Vance defended it
1:04:15 Four things Chuck wishes he knew before Election Day
1:19:00 Ask Chuck
1:19:30 What would happen if Missouri's new map gets thrown out?
1:23:30 Which bellwether counties are on your radar?
1:28:30 Could Trump’s Russia friendly policy come down to a man-crush on Putin?
1:32:00 How will Massachusetts replace Lt. Gov candidate who dropped out
1:33:30 If Dems win the senate is eliminating the filibuster inevitable?
1:39:00 College football preview
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wall Street journalist William D. Cohan — author of the New York Times bestseller Money to Burn, on Leon Black and the rise of Apollo — joins the Chuck ToddCast to connect the dots between media consolidation, private equity, and the opaque corner of finance the ToddCast has been chasing since the Lakers special report. Cohan explains why Skydance needs CNN’s cash flow to service $80 billion in debt, why Trump may kill Nexstar’s bid for ABC out of spite toward Disney, and how a sports franchise purchase actually gets financed — including whether Mark Walter bought the Dodgers or insurance premiums did. On Black, Cohan had extensive access: Black maintains the hundreds of millions he paid Epstein were for tax and estate planning, and an investigation he commissioned found no nefarious activity, though Cohan is skeptical anyone pays that much for tax advice. His closing warning echoes Chuck’s: after 2008 regulators pushed risky assets outside the banks, and the new shadow banking system is barely regulated at all.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:
00:00 William D. Cohan joins the Chuck ToddCast
02:30 Will public companies offload their news networks?
04:15 Skydance’s $80 billion debt and why it needs CNN
08:15 Nexstar, ABC, and Trump’s grudge against Disney
12:15 Netflix, YouTube, Apple, and who’s actually winning
17:45 Redbird, overinflated valuations, and the Lakers money
24:30 Trophy purchases, the Dodgers, and insurance premiums
29:00 Private equity as a business — and as a political boogeyman
36:30 Bessent as sycophant, and the treasury buyback
38:30 Leon Black, Epstein, and an attempted rehabilitation
45:00 Shadow banking and the crisis we’ll regulate afterward
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.