The Chuck ToddCast

With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk.
He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football.
Then, Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond.
The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact

Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction
03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day
04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult
06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big
07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami?
08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance
09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats
11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat
12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started
14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors
15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans
16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates
18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018
19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance
21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election
23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out?
25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise
27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent
29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem
31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering?
33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance
34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable
36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through
37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument
38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off
41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami
42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents?
46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out
49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman
50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027?
52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on?
52:45 College football week one recap
1:16:30 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast
1:18:45 Assessing the bifurcated economy
1:19:15 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed
1:20:45 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due
1:22:15 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom?
1:25:30 Could the bust come when government can't respond?
1:26:30 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years
1:28:45 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032
1:30:00 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done
1:31:45 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start
1:33:30 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress?
1:35:15 An epic amount of oversight is coming
1:36:15 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump
1:38:45 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress
1:41:00 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands
1:43:00 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul
1:45:15 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age
1:47:30 How should big tech make the case for data centers?
1:50:30 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated
1:53:30 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public
1:55:30 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie
1:58:45 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this?
2:05:45 What Walmart got right about storytelling
2:07:00 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50
2:09:30 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do?
2:11:00 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board
2:13:00 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in Alabama
2:16:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974
2:17:00 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake
2:17:45 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon
2:18:30 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law?
2:19:15 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support
2:20:15 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew
2:21:00 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over
2:23:30 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it
2:24:15 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon
2:26:00 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost?
2:27:30 The alternative paths Ford could have taken
2:31:00 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed
2:32:30 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon
2:35:30 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon
2:37:00 Major backlash to the pardon
2:37:30 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing
2:42:00 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents
2:45:00 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last
2:45:15 Ask Chuck
2:45:30 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year?
2:49:45 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests?
2:54:45 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular?
2:59:30 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees?
3:03:00 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk.
He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction
03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day
04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult
06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big
07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami?
08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance
09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats
11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat
12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started
14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors
15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans
16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates
18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018
19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance
21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election
23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out?
25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise
27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent
29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem
31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering?
33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance
34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable
36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through
37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument
38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off
41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami
42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents?
46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out
49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman
50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027?
52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on?
52:45 College football week one recap
1:15:00 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974
1:15:30 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake
1:16:15 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon
1:17:00 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law?
1:17:45 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support
1:18:45 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew
1:19:30 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over
1:21:00 Why did Ford get to decide how much accountability we received
1:22:00 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it
1:22:45 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon
1:24:30 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost?
1:26:00 The alternative paths Ford could have taken
1:27:30 Ford didn’t intend for investigations of others to stop
1:29:30 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed
1:31:00 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon
1:34:00 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon
1:35:30 Major backlash to the pardon
1:36:00 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing
1:40:30 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents
1:43:30 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last
1:43:45 Ask Chuck
1:44:00 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year?
1:48:15 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests?
1:53:15 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular?
1:58:00 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees?
2:01:30 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond: the national debt has doubled from $20 trillion to $40 trillion in a decade, the Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032, and there's no political courage to touch any of it — because in a system where bipartisanship reads as betrayal, nothing gets done. His modest starting point: a 3% tax increase paired with a 3% spending cut.
The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. The fix is making local benefits visible, and finding a communicator who isn't a CEO, since tech executives are now viewed as villains. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast
02:15 Assessing the bifurcated economy
02:45 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed
04:15 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due
05:45 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom?
09:00 Could the bust come when government can't respond?
10:00 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years
12:15 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032
13:30 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done
15:15 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start
17:00 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress?
18:45 An epic amount of oversight is coming
19:45 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump
22:15 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress
24:30 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands
26:30 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul
28:45 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age
31:00 How should big tech make the case for data centers?
34:00 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated
37:00 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public
39:00 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie
42:15 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this?
49:15 What Walmart got right about storytelling
50:30 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50
53:00 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do?
54:30 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board
56:30 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in Alabama
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reads the tea leaves on a building Democratic wave: primary turnout is up 35% over 2022 while Republican turnout is down 4%, and Todd argues voter behavior is a far better predictor than polling — though it's a tea leaf, not a guarantee. He then digs into an underappreciated dynamic that could decide Senate control: governor's races make the weather. Texas, Chuck argues, is now more plausible for Democrats than Iowa. And South Carolina, which Republicans never expected to worry about, just got more expensive after Ralph Norman told supporters to write him in rather than back Darline Graham.
The second half is a five-alarm fire at the Pentagon. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned this week over Hegseth blocking Army modernization by firing the generals leading it — the latest in a purge that has left the Army without a chief of staff for months and cut four-star positions from ten to five, all during an active war. Chuck’s read is that this is a deliberate gutting and argues the fired and recently resigned generals have an obligation to speak up, because silence doesn't protect the institution. He closes with what he calls the cancer in American politics — the House — using Jared Golden's lobster fishing bill as the perfect illustration: Golden had to vote for a Republican rule just to get a floor vote on his own legislation, then got accused by leadership of a breach of trust for representing his constituents. That's the disease, Chuck argues, and Democrats will inherit every bit of it.
Documentarian Brian Knappenberger joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Turning Point: Generation 9/11, out on Netflix September 2nd — a film built around a striking fact: more than half of Americans were either born after 2001 or were too young to remember it. Knappenberger's aim was to bring that generation into the moment, capturing not just the attack but the fear and uncertainty that followed, including the attacks everyone braced for that never came. He points to a news clip in the film where 63% of Americans said they'd trade freedom for security, and to the AUMF passed almost immediately with Barbara Lee as the lone no vote. He and Chuck revisit the genuine moment of global unity — the only time NATO's Article 5 has ever been triggered — and Bush's real effort to reassure American Muslims, progress on Islamophobia that Knappenberger argues has since been squandered.
The back half is a hard-nosed accounting. Driving the Taliban out was a success; the Iraq war took America's eye off the ball; intelligence agencies genuinely do communicate better now. But al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people who exploited a vulnerability, and the domino effect produced ISIS, something far larger. Knappenberger talks about interviewing kids who lost parents that day — including a pilot's daughter still trolled online by a Truther movement that social media made possible — and about Marines at Abbey Gate, many not yet alive on 9/11, expressing real conflict about what it was all for. Chuck’s question hangs over it: after 25 years of Pentagon budgets, what exactly did we get? And with no meaningful congressional oversight of the Iran war, the founders' decision that a king shouldn't declare wars feels less like history than a warning. Knappenberger's hope is simple — that we remember the fear well enough not to repeat the mistakes it produced.
Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and previews week 1 in college football.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction
04:15 A Democratic wave is building… but how big?
06:15 Dem turnout up 35% from 2022, GOP turnout down 4%
08:30 A tea leaf, not a guarantee — and why behavior beats polling
11:15 New Hampshire primaries preview
13:15 Senate control may be decided by governor races in MI, TX and IA
14:30 Ramaswamy is the wrong avatar for a Republican to win Ohio
16:45 Republicans didn't think they'd have to worry about South Carolina
17:30 Ralph Norman tells supporters to write him in rather than back Graham
22:15 Governor's races make the weather and drag Senate candidates along
26:00 Ticket splitting hasn't disappeared since 2010, but it's less common
27:15 Breaking down the penalty for various candidate sins
30:00 Ken Paxton needs Abbott to win big — and Abbott's trending down
33:15 Todd Akin's voters fled to the Libertarians in 2012
35:00 El-Sayed's penalty isn't scandal, it's ideological — 2-3 points
36:00 Jocelyn Benson is running the best campaign of the cycle
38:45 Iowa hasn't split a governor/senate race since 1998
41:45 Texas looks more plausible for Democrats than Iowa
43:45 Problems at the Pentagon should be a five-alarm fire
45:30 Hegseth forced out the leaders modernizing the Army
47:45 Hollowing out the military during an active war
48:45 Hegseth wants the Pentagon to be a reality show about himself
52:00 Assets needed to deter Russia & China are being removed
54:15 Military leaders must be able to disagree with civilian leadership
57:00 An obligation to warn the country if the military is being weakened
59:45 The House of Representatives is the cancer in our political system
1:03:30 The Jared Golden lobster bill saga
1:06:30 Golden voted for a GOP rule to get a vote on his own bill
1:09:45 Leadership accused him of breaching trust… by representing their voters
1:13:00 If Democrats win the House, they inherit all of this dysfunction
1:18:00 The House is the cancer we have to cure first
1:22:45 Brian Knappenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast
1:25:15 Many Americans are too young to remember 9/11 well
1:27:15 9/11 is moving from a lived memory into history
1:30:45 Wanted to capture the fear and uncertainty of that period in time
1:34:45 Want the next generation not to fall into the same trap of fear & suspicion
1:39:45 The rally around the flag effect after the attacks
1:42:30 There was a real moment of unity worldwide before the divisiveness
1:43:00 The only time Article V of NATO was triggered was from 9/11
1:47:15 Pre-Trump the country had made real progress on Islamaphobia
1:48:00 Talked to a lot of kids who lost parents on 9/11 for the doc
1:49:15 Social media emerged after 9/11 and the “Truther” movement came with it
1:51:15 Driving the Taliban out of Afghanistan was a positive
1:51:45 We took our eye off the ball with the Iraq war
1:54:45 Have we sufficiently answered why Bin Laden attacked us
1:59:00 The real damage was the divisiveness and attrition of two wars
2:00:00 Al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people, exploited a vulnerability
2:01:15 The domino effect created ISIS, which is much larger than Al-Qaeda
2:06:00 Marines at Abbey Gate express feeling conflicted
2:08:30 25 years of Pentagon budgets has gotten us…what?
2:10:45 There seems to be no congressional oversight with the Iran war
2:11:15 What other Turning Point projects do you have in the works?
2:12:45 Ukraine war is a weird blend of history and modern technology
2:15:45 9/11 changed our perception of ourselves and our vulnerabilities
2:20:00 ToddCast Top 5 senate seats most likely to flip
2:20:30 #1 North Carolina
2:21:15 #2 Alaska
2:21:45 #3 Texas
2:23:15 #4 Ohio
2:25:00 #5 Tie between Maine & Michigan
2:27:00 Ask Chuck
2:27:15 Could the Bradley effect be in play in the Texas senate race?
2:29:30 Should congress be doing more to protect the mail-in vote?
2:32:30 Thoughts on proposal to add 12 at large senators?
2:34:45 College football preview
2:40:00 Column on Lane Kiffin being the “bad boy” of college football
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reads the tea leaves on a building Democratic wave: primary turnout is up 35% over 2022 while Republican turnout is down 4%, and Todd argues voter behavior is a far better predictor than polling — though it's a tea leaf, not a guarantee. He then digs into an underappreciated dynamic that could decide Senate control: governor's races make the weather. Texas, Chuck argues, is now more plausible for Democrats than Iowa. And South Carolina, which Republicans never expected to worry about, just got more expensive after Ralph Norman told supporters to write him in rather than back Darline Graham.
The second half is a five-alarm fire at the Pentagon. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned this week over Hegseth blocking Army modernization by firing the generals leading it — the latest in a purge that has left the Army without a chief of staff for months and cut four-star positions from ten to five, all during an active war. Chuck’s read is that this is a deliberate gutting and argues the fired and recently resigned generals have an obligation to speak up, because silence doesn't protect the institution. He closes with what he calls the cancer in American politics — the House — using Jared Golden's lobster fishing bill as the perfect illustration: Golden had to vote for a Republican rule just to get a floor vote on his own legislation, then got accused by leadership of a breach of trust for representing his constituents. That's the disease, Chuck argues, and Democrats will inherit every bit of it.
Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and previews week 1 in college football.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

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Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction
04:15 A Democratic wave is building… but how big?
06:15 Dem turnout up 35% from 2022, GOP turnout down 4%
08:30 A tea leaf, not a guarantee — and why behavior beats polling
11:15 New Hampshire primaries preview
13:15 Senate control may be decided by governor races in MI, TX and IA
14:30 Ramaswamy is the wrong avatar for a Republican to win Ohio
16:45 Republicans didn't think they'd have to worry about South Carolina
17:30 Ralph Norman tells supporters to write him in rather than back Graham
22:15 Governor's races make the weather and drag Senate candidates along
26:00 Ticket splitting hasn't disappeared since 2010, but it's less common
27:15 Breaking down the penalty for various candidate sins
30:00 Ken Paxton needs Abbott to win big — and Abbott's trending down
33:15 Todd Akin's voters fled to the Libertarians in 2012
35:00 El-Sayed's penalty isn't scandal, it's ideological — 2-3 points
36:00 Jocelyn Benson is running the best campaign of the cycle
38:45 Iowa hasn't split a governor/senate race since 1998
41:45 Texas looks more plausible for Democrats than Iowa
43:45 Problems at the Pentagon should be a five-alarm fire
45:30 Hegseth forced out the leaders modernizing the Army
47:45 Hollowing out the military during an active war
48:45 Hegseth wants the Pentagon to be a reality show about himself
52:00 Assets needed to deter Russia & China are being removed
54:15 Military leaders must be able to disagree with civilian leadership
57:00 An obligation to warn the country if the military is being weakened
59:45 The House of Representatives is the cancer in our political system
1:03:30 The Jared Golden lobster bill saga
1:06:30 Golden voted for a GOP rule to get a vote on his own bill
1:09:45 Leadership accused him of breaching trust… by representing their voters
1:13:00 If Democrats win the House, they inherit all of this dysfunction
1:18:00 The House is the cancer we have to cure first
1:20:30 ToddCast Top 5 senate seats most likely to flip
1:21:00 #1 North Carolina
1:21:45 #2 Alaska
1:22:15 #3 Texas
1:23:45 #4 Ohio
1:25:30 #5 Tie between Maine & Michigan
1:27:30 Ask Chuck
1:27:45 Could the Bradley effect be in play in the Texas senate race?
1:30:00 Should congress be doing more to protect the mail-in vote?
1:33:00 Thoughts on proposal to add 12 at large senators?
1:35:15 College football preview
1:40:30 Column on Lane Kiffin being the “bad boy” of college football
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