Forecast 2050

Laura Kreidberg believes there is life out there in the universe.

An astrophysicist and director at the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy in Heidelberg, Germany, Laura is one of the youngest directors ever appointed to a Max Planck Institute. Her work uses the Hubble and James Webb space telescopes to explore the atmospheres of planets orbiting distant stars. I sat down with Laura to discuss how astronomers study worlds too far away to photograph, why intelligence may not be evolutionarily favorable, and why Laura thinks we'll discover life on other worlds in the next 30 years.

Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/the-hunt-for-alien-life-on-distant

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
03:10 The Atmospheres of Other Worlds
08:14 In Astronomy, Bigger is Better
10:50 Earth-like Planets
20:04 The Huge Variety of Exoplanets
26:03 Science Communication
27:30 Intelligence is Not Evolutionary Favorable
33:30 Signs of Life on Exoplanets
40:19 Discovering Aliens in 30 Years
45:44 Science as Soft Power

Laura Kreidberg is the Director at the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, where she studies the atmospheres of exoplanets for signs of life.

Laura on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/laura-kreidberg-3a08581b7
Laura on X: https://x.com/lkreidberg
Max Planck Institute for Astronomy Profile: https://www.mpia.de/en/laura-kreidberg

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.

Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12
Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/

Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City.

Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Silicon Valley frames AI as a race against China to reach AGI. In China, almost nobody thinks that way.

Journalist Yi-Ling Liu, author of The Wall Dancers and journalist in residence at the Tarbell Center for AI Journalism, joined me on Forecast 2050 to explain how China actually sees AI, the “permanent underclass” that predates automation, demographic collapse and the Chinese silver economy, and the Christian origins of the transhumanist movement.

Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/why-is-silicon-valley-obsessed-with

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
02:58 Superintelligence Is Not China’s Goal
08:06 The Pre-AI Permanent Underclass
11:00 The Tech-Government Revolving Door
17:05 Lying Flat
19:57 Christian Singularity vs. Daoist AI
26:06 Overcoming Censorship
32:10 The TikTok Ban
36:58 Chinese Perceptions of the West
46:16 The Silver Economy

Yi-Ling Liu is a journalist in residence at the Tarbell Center for AI Journalism, former China editor at Rest of World, and author of The Wall Dancers: Searching for Freedom and Connection on the Chinese Internet.

Yi-Ling on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/yi-ling-l-89799783/
Yi-Ling on X: https://x.com/yilingliu95
Website: https://www.yi-lingliu.com/

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.

Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12
Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/

Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

General David Petraeus believes we need draconian change to prepare for the age of autonomous warfare.

A retired four-star general, Gen. Petraeus commanded U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and led U.S. Central Command before serving as director of the CIA. I sat down with Gen. Petraeus to discuss the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, how autonomous drones and weapons will fight the wars of the future, and the new big ideas we need to keep the world stable for the next 25 years.

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
01:57 Commanding Autonomous Systems
04:55 Revolution, Not Reform
11:21 Inside the Death Zone
19:17 America Is Unprepared for Future Wars
23:41 A New AI Military Service Branch
35:12 The UK Will Lead Military Innovation
42:02 The War for Truth
49:19 The Big Ideas for the Next 25 Years
54:15 The Leaders of the Future

David Petraeus is a former CIA Director who commanded U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and is now a partner at KKR and the Chairman of its Global Institute.

General Petraeus on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidpetraeus/

Thanks to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project for the maps in the interview: www.understandingwar.org and www.criticalthreats.org.

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.

Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12
Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/

Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

The real reason AI was given to humans is to communicate with animals, according to David Gruber. A marine biologist and National Geographic Explorer, he is the founder of Project CETI, a global effort of more than 50 scientists across eight disciplines working to decode the communication of sperm whales. In this episode of Forecast 2050, I sit down with David to discuss the prospect of an interspecies dialogue and the seismic implications it will have for all of us, whales included.

Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/can-ai-talk-to-whales-project-ceti

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
01:48 David's Journey
12:30 An Interspecies Dialogue
17:14 Sperm Whale Language & Culture
23:48 The Breakthroughs Yet to Come
27:49 The Whales Are Yappers
31:03 Sperm Whales Have Accents
39:47 Verifying a Whale Translation
42:13 What Success Looks Like
47:32 Saving the Whales

David Gruber is a marine biologist and National Geographic Explorer who founded Project CETI, a team of more than 50 scientists using AI to decode how sperm whales communicate.

David on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-gruber-b003871/
Project CETI on X: https://x.com/ProjectCETI
Project CETI on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/projectceti/
Project CETI Website: https://www.projectceti.org/

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.

Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12
Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/

Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City.

Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Fr. Brendan McGuire believes that we still have an opportunity to align AI for the common good, though time is running out. A Silicon Valley executive turned Catholic priest, Fr. Brendan has spent decades as a confidant to the people building frontier technology, and was one of the external contributors to Anthropic’s Claude Constitution.

In this episode of Forecast 2050, Nebular General Partner Finn Murphy sits down with Fr. Brendan to discuss Pope Leo XIV's encyclical about AI, Magnifica Humanitas, why AI needs to learn forgiveness, whether AIs have souls, and why we probably have less than a year before recursive self-improvement to ensure these models benefit humanity.

Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/father-brendan-mcguire-claudes-priest
Transcript: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/forecast-2050-episode-11-fr-brendan

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
01:45 Silicon Valley Tech Exec to Man of the Cloth
08:10 We Need Smart AI Regulation
11:46 The Pope's Warning: Don't Build a New AI Tower of Babel
19:10 Why AI Needs to Learn Forgiveness
27:26 What Hugging Face Shows About AI Morality
31:56 Do AIs Have Souls? Would We Baptise An Alien?
40:06 Watching Others Die Puts the AI Doomers In Perspective
44:20 Why Anthropic Asked the Church for Help 53:39 AI Doesn't Have to Be Winner-Takes-All
58:23 We Have Less Than a Year to Shape AI's Morality before RSI
01:02:23 Tolkien Morality vs Game of Thrones Brutality

Fr. Brendan McGuire is an engineer turned Silicon Valley executive turned Catholic priest at St. Simon Parish in Los Altos, CA. He is an external contributor to Anthropic's Claude Constitution.

Fr. Brendan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/frbrendanmcguire/
St. Simon Parish: https://stsimon.church/

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.

Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12
Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/

Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City.

Head to nebular.vc for more info.