Global Trade Deciphered

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Justin Hayden Miller breaks down Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's explosive Davos speech at the World Economic Forum. From tariffs weaponized as leverage to supply chains exposed as vulnerabilities, explore how great powers are accelerating chaos in international commerce. Is this a rupture or a salvageable transition? Miller unpacks the geopolitics with sharp insights, drawing on analogies from science and history to make sense of the turmoil.
Key Topics Explored:
The end of the rules-based international order: Carney's blunt take on economic integration turning into coercion.
Middle powers' survival strategies: Building alliances, strategic autonomy in energy, food, and critical minerals.
Tariffs and trade wars: Reactions from figures like François Hollande on balancing power with the US, plus insights from US trade attorney Peter Quinter on free trade's role in global peace.
Geopolitical risks: From EU's anti-coercion tools to the prisoner's dilemma in modern trade negotiations.
Forward-looking trade shifts: Multiplex alliances, resource cartels, and the race for critical materials like copper.
Featuring audio snippets from Carney's iconic address and a voiceover of François Hollande's advice concerning European trade policy regarding the US.
Link to Mark Carney’s speech on the excellent WEF World Economic Forum website: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-by-mark-carney-prime-minister-of-canada/
See also: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-how-middle-powers-are-reading-the-global-moment/
Global Trade Deciphered is essential listening for business leaders, policymakers and anyone tracking global economy trends. 
Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts for more unfiltered analysis on global trade, geopolitics, tariffs, Davos insights, Mark Carney, World Economic Forum, trade policy, critical minerals, supply chain vulnerabilities, and international relations. Share with your network and join the conversation!
Thumbnail image of Mark Carney, © Lëa-Kim Châteauneuf, reproduced by kind permission: licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license, c.c. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2025-11-14_InaugurationREM_Deux-Montagnes_Mark_Carney.jpg ; photo cropped and lightly modified by Global Trade Deciphered.
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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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In this episode of Global Trade Deciphered, host Justin Hayden Miller discusses and analyses the newly signed EU-Mercosur trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay). 
Signed on January 17, 2026, after 26 years of negotiations, this landmark deal eliminates tariffs on over 90% of goods, boosts access to critical minerals like lithium, and covers investment, intellectual property, and sustainable development. But is it Europe's strategic move to counter U.S. trade policies under Trump?
Justin analyzes the geopolitical implications, including how U.S. foreign policy is pushing nations toward closer ties with China, as seen in Paraguay's president's remarks on strategic partnerships. He explores farmer protests in France and Europe, opposition from countries like France, Poland, and Hungary, and the challenges of ratification—including potential vetoes, European Parliament approval, and even a possible European Court of Justice review.
Key discussions include:
Tariff reductions on industrial products, cars, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, wine, and agriculture (with quotas for sensitive items like beef).
Safeguards for EU standards on labor, environment, and deforestation.
Broader trends: Deglobalization, anti-globalization protests echoing 1999, and predictions for 2026 global trade shifts.
Audio clips from Paraguay's President Santiago Peña, U.S. President Donald Trump, and EU President Ursula von der Leyen.
This episode is essential for understanding 2026 trade policies, EU-Mercosur impacts on global supply chains, Trump tariffs' ripple effects, and the future of international business amid farmer revolts and geopolitical pivots.
Timestamps:
00:02 – Intro: Arctic Tensions & Episode Overview
03:11 – Paraguay President Peña on China Partnerships
03:38 – Trump's Policies Pushing Allies Toward China
12:15 – Trump on EU Challenges
12:26 – EU Decision-Making Complexities
14:33 – Von der Leyen on Trade Growth Estimates
14:51 – Analyzing the "Substantial" 9 Billion Euro Projection
15:10 – Von der Leyen on Investments in Cars & Chemicals
15:38 – Putting Trade Figures in Perspective
End – Predictions: Ratification Rollercoaster & Anti-Trump Deals
Hosted by Justin Hayden Miller, a Paris-based global trade advisor and strategist with 25+ years of experience, former partner at a top-tier European law firm, and senior leader in Big-4 international trade and tax practices. Global Trade Deciphered explores global trade, geopolitics, and the economy with expert insights for business leaders, policymakers, and trade enthusiasts.
Reference press articles mentioned during the episode:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/15/greenland
If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.
*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM
or contact us by email at [email protected]
Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://bit.ly/PrivilegedDiscussions
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Maduro in U.S. custody. Venezuela's oil under American influence. A pending Supreme Court decision that could ignite a new trade war. Welcome to 2026—it's already explosive.
Just days into the new year, host Justin Hayden Miller unpacks the geopolitical shockwaves ripping through global trade. From U.S. control of Venezuelan energy to the tariffs showdown at the Supreme Court, this episode delivers razor-sharp analysis on the forces reshaping supply chains, alliances, and power balances in 2026.
Why this episode demands your attention right now:
How Maduro's capture could hand the U.S. unprecedented leverage over Latin American trade—and why China won't stay silent
The Supreme Court tariff ruling hanging over Trump’s agenda: massive importer refunds or escalating trade war?
Why oil is suddenly more critical than ever—and what AI's insatiable energy hunger has to do with it
Could the U.S. turn Venezuela into an economic proxy inside Mercosur, upending EU negotiations?
Expert takes: Will China absorb Taiwan with barely a ripple? Is globalization crumbling under AI and robotics?
2025 predictions that hit the bullseye—and the bold calls for what's next
Highlights include:
US International Trade attorney Peter Quinter on why the Supreme Court might force congressional approval on future tariffs
Shipping expert Simon Ward's provocative outlook on China's growth and Taiwan
Insights from former EU Labour leader Richard Corbett and senior BMW executive Dr. Jürgen Guldner
Perfect for executives, investors, and policymakers tracking:
#MaduroCapture #VenezuelaOil #TrumpTariffs #SupremeCourtRuling #GlobalTrade2026 #Geopolitics #AIEnergy #TradeWar #ChinaTaiwan #Mercosur
Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite platform. Drop a 5-star review if you're ready for unfiltered insights on the trade battles defining 2026.
If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.
*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM
or contact us by email at [email protected]
Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://bit.ly/PrivilegedDiscussions
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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In this special Christmas episode, host Justin Hayden Miller examines 2025's record-breaking global trade—surpassing $35 trillion—through the lens of Father Christmas and the challenges posed by Trump's tariffs, Arctic geopolitics, and climate change.
Key Topics
Trump's tariffs and their impact on holiday imports, toys, and global supply chains
Melting Arctic ice opening new shipping routes (Northern Sea Route, Northwest Passage) amid rising US-Russia-China tensions and Trump's Greenland discussions
Geopolitical volatility from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East affecting energy and grain markets
Resilience in global trade despite barriers, with insights on Brexit customs rules and air cargo logistics
Outlook
A reflective year-end analysis on trade resilience, potential 2026 risks, and the evolving energy revolution.
Track Santa's journey: NORADSanta.org
Subscribe to Global Trade Deciphered for expert insights on international trade policy, geopolitics, and economic trends. Happy holidays!
If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.
*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM
or contact us by email at [email protected]
Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://bit.ly/PrivilegedDiscussions
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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How could the EU CBAM Carbon Border Tax 2026  reshape global trade, sparking US trade war risks and highlighting EU over-regulation? Essential listening for importers, exporters, and supply chain pros navigating emerging trends in green policy and international relations.
Why CBAM Matters Now: Two major events this December 2025 could change how you import goods into Europe—discover the hidden bureaucracy behind "green" taxes.
US NSS Critique: The 2025 US National Security Strategy slams EU regulatory suffocation—could it signal retaliatory tariffs and fractured alliances?
CBAM Breakdown: From cement to hydrogen, learn how the world's first carbon border tax hits high-carbon imports starting January 1, 2026—what's the real cost?
Carbon Leakage Trap: EU claims CBAM prevents offshoring emissions, but is it protectionism in disguise that disadvantages non-EU producers?
Administrative Nightmare: Importers must declare embedded emissions or face sky-high defaults—could this expand to everyday items like washing machines?
Trade War Sparks: Echoes of Canada's failed attempt—how might US criticisms of WTO violations lead to reciprocal actions and global supply chain chaos?
Broader Impacts: Unpack how EU over-regulation stifles innovation and fuels tensions with China, India, and the US—your business at risk?
Related Regulations: Ties to EU Batteries Regulation and more red tape—why this isn't just about carbon, but the future of free trade.
Including:
Game-changing events for EU imports
US NSS roasts EU bureaucracy
What is CBAM really?
Products hit hardest
End of just declarations, start of taxes
Emissions math decoded
Green policy or trade war trigger?
Bureaucracy's hidden costs
EU red tape expands
Outlook for global trade
and:
Could CBAM ignite a US-EU trade clash?
Why importers can't ignore emissions defaults
CBAM's potential to upend your supply chain
Call to Action:
Please share if CBAM affects your trade—rate/review on Apple Podcasts to boost visibility for global trade insights. 
#EUCbam #CarbonBorderTax2026 #USTradeWar #EUOverRegulation #GlobalTrade #ImportingToEurope #WTO
If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.
*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM
or contact us by email at [email protected]
Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://bit.ly/PrivilegedDiscussions
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.