Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee

“Last frontiers of alpha is in the sports and entertainment-related real estate,” says Jonathan Fascitelli, founder and CEO of sport and entertainment real estate firm Seregh, on a special edition of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, recorded at the FII Institute’s conference in Rome. Just 18 months since founding, Seregh already has more than $35 billion in their pipeline.
Seregh, which has the backing of Creative Arts Agency (CAA), Apollo co-founder Josh Harris, and Blackstone’s David Blitzer among many others, seeks to develop and invest in infrastructures around stadium and arenas. That means building communities that include residential homes, office buildings, restaurants, and more.
Fascitelli, who was formerly the CEO of Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment real estate, also talks about FII PRIORITY Europe 2026, of investing in the “collective effervescence” (the shared moment when everyone experiences the same thing at the same time – think recent moments involving the New York Knicks or English Premier League club Arsenal), and how that can combat the rise of AI.

“We’re clearly in late cycle, but we’re not obviously at the turning point,” says Ariadna Stefanescu, co-head of Permira Credit, in the latest edition of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Permira is a global investment firm with buyout and credit businesses holding nearly €90 billion in committed capital.
The current environment provides an opportunity for different managers to differentiate themselves, says Stefanescu. Not only will there be more dispersion, but some shops will either fold or face consolidation.
“Ultimately, some people will be priced out of the market,” she predicts.
While Stefanescu expects defaults in sub-investment grade debt to increase, she also notes there have been structural changes that have served to reduce the default rate, most notably more pockets of liquidity.

Middle-market direct lending finances growing businesses, says Gauthier Reymondier, head of European credit at Bain Capital, a private equity and credit powerhouse with more than $225 billion in assets under management.
Reymondier speaks about the fundamental difference between US and European economic growth, the impact of artificial intelligence and capex spending, and consumer habits. While European growth expectations have been very mediocre, more political stability would prompt consumers to spend more, he says, as has been the case in Spain, Portugal or Poland.
“Trust would be the biggest growth driver,” Reymondier says. “I think stability is important because we see in our market that without stability, people don’t spend.”
Bain Capital’s private equity arm this week announced a major deal to acquire Everllence, a marine power and turbomachinery manufacturer, in a carve-out from Volkswagen Group, and Reymondier also weighs in on the future prospects for M&A and LBOs.

Issues in the software space and a looming maturity wall will result in a return to more traditional distressed opportunities, says Jeff Kivitz, chief investment officer at Canyon Partners, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee.
There’s a wall of software debt maturities looming and while in the past these have “magically gone away, I think this wall is a little bit different,” Kivitz says. Eventually, the rubber will meet the road and there will be distressed and restructuring opportunities.
Canyon, a global alternative investment manager with $30 billion in AUM, is a firm to watch. While others are pulling back from lending to software, Canyon earlier this year led the arranging of a landmark $4.8 billion private credit loan in the space. Kivitz explains how they got comfortable with backing private equity shop Thoma Bravo as its portfolio software company Auctane merged with logistics provider WWEX Group.
In addition, Kivitz discusses how Canyon set up its new ABF unit, Canyon ABF Partners, with anchor investments from management, Daiichi Life Insurance and Korea Investment Holdings. He also talks about how Canyon nabbed credit market star Jay Kim, former CEO of Apollo’s ATLAS SP Partners.

“We’re starting to see some impact on cost. Very manageable, but it’s hard to ignore,” says Alex Chi, deputy CIO of global credit at Carlyle, one of the world’s largest investment managers with nearly $500bn in assets under management.
Speaking on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, Chi says that they are being very careful about how they underwrite new credits going forward. But new originations and investments stand to benefit from higher interest rates, he adds, as most of Carlyle’s credit holdings are floating-rate.
While Chi says consumer spending is holding up, particularly from higher-end consumers, Carlyle is staying away from credits that have significant exposure to discretionary consumer, “because we just don’t know what the impact’s going to be.”
Expect to see more defaults within the software landscape, says Chi, who is also head of direct lending at Carlyle. The vintages of late 2020 through early 2022 are especially problematic. If you look at the rates of default within those vintages, they have the highest percentage of non-accruals and defaults, he says.
“I think that we’re going to have to face the music at some point, because the maturity wall is coming,” Chi says. “And as a deputy CIO, I also think that could be very interesting for the opportunistic credit asset class.”
On AI, the software firms experiencing problems aren’t a result of AI disruption, Chi contends. “I actually think that you’re going to see more of an impact of AI from white-collar business services companies,” he says.