Behind the Balance Sheet

James Aitken, macro strategist to the world’s largest and most successful investors, takes Steve on a tour of the keythemes in global finance today. You will learn why James is interested in Japan, his views on the new Fed Chair and why inflationary pressures are here to stay as post Covid, we focus on resilience rather than efficiency.
James also shares his thoughts on gold, on AI, and importantly on a changing supply-demand balance in US equities. Finally he shares his perspective on what differentiates his clients who include some of the largest and some of the best performing investors in the world, so listen carefully to that and what he predicts we will be talking about in 3 years’ time.

Jeremy Grantham is known as a permabear and an expert on bubbles so you should not be surprised that he sees an AI-induced bubble today and thinks the market will fall by 50%. He points out that at peaks you always have high multiples applied to abnormally high profit margins and today is no different.
We discuss his experiences at GMO, where they didn’t have a sales person for their first 22 years, how his refusal to participate in the dot.com bubble cost him half his clients and none of them came back when he was proved right, how he recruited some of the best minds in finance, and why timing the market can deliver outsize returns.
Grantham is no longer managing portfolios, instead devoting his considerable energies to philanthropy. We discuss his foundation’s efforts to combat climate change, to resource depletion, and to toxicity which is affecting fertility – he highlights how population will be in decline unless this is addressed.

https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcast
Jeremy Grantham is known as a permabear and an expert on bubbles so you should not be surprised that he sees an AI-induced bubble today and thinks the market will fall by 50%. He points out that at peaks you always have high multiples applied to abnormally high profit margins and today is no different.
We discuss his experiences at GMO, where they didn’t have a sales person for their first 22 years, how his refusal to participate in the dot.com bubble cost him half his clients and none of them came back when he was proved right, how he recruited some of the best minds in finance, and why timing the market can deliver outsize returns.
 
Grantham is no longer managing portfolios, instead devoting his considerable energies to philanthropy. We discuss his foundation’s efforts to combat climate change, to resource depletion, and to toxicity which is affecting fertility – he highlights how population will be in decline unless this is addressed.  https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcast

Michael Cembalest chairs the Market and Investment Strategy group at JP Morgan Asset and Wealth Management and effectively oversees $4tn AUM. He is responsible for market and investment insights across the asset management business and has produced the famous Eye on the Market publication for over 20 years now. We discuss AI, which formed the bulk of his most recent annual edition, why he believes Open AI is a weak link and why he thinks the Treasury market will have a crash, but not yet.
Cembalest is known for his charts and he picks both his favourite and his least favourite charts. Michael is one of the most in-depth macro analysts I have met and it’s his depth as well as his breadth of knowledge which is truly impressive. We recorded in JP Morgan’s amazing new office in New York, check out the photos in the show notes.

Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios.
You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips. For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠⁠⁠website⁠⁠⁠⁠.
If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

Rory Sutherland is the Vice Chairman of advertising giant Ogilvy UK, a behavioural scientist, TED speaker, organiser of the Nudgestock conference and so much more.
Most important, he is one of the most original thinkers around. In this wide ranging conversation, he explains what accountants and analysts miss, why he believes family-owned businesses are long term winners, two reasons to own Costco, his views on luxury brands, why he thinks electric cars could reshgpae industries, what short selling has in common with behavioural science and much, much more.
Rory is not an investor but there are some tremendous insights here for investors to take away.

Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios.
You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips. For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠⁠website⁠⁠⁠.
If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

The title “The Sculptor” is a play on a quote “every man can be the sculptor of his own mind”, as Jonathan Tepper is uniquely self-educated. Brought up in the slums of San Blas in Madrid, partly home-schooled, he made it to Oxford as a Rhodes scholar. Tepper is a relentless learner, endlessly curious and in love with investing – as he sees it, you never stop learning and every day is an opportunity to learn.
In this episode we discuss his childhood, as recounted in his new book Shooting Up; how curiosity and a desire to learn can transform your opportunity set; and we trace his investment journey, from a start as a junior analyst at Steve Cohen’s firm, through building a highly successful sellside research company to setting up his investment firm Prevatt Capital. He explains why he holds just 16 idiosyncratic stocks and what he looks for in a successful investment. Tepper has had a fascinating journey and has achieved more in just over 40 years than many do in a life of investing – his is a wonderful story.

Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios.
You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠.
If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.