The Art of Investing

• Quantitative Easing Explained: Has the Golden Santa Rally Begun?

  Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined once again by economist Stu Thompson for a wide-ranging episode that uncovers why QE and the Fed Cuts might just be kicking off the Santa Rally, and how it's multiplying your portfolio returns.From blockbuster takeover bids and trillion-dollar IPO rumours, to a surprise return of quantitative easing and rising long-dated bond yields, the team unpack a week full of “toppy” signals, and explain why the bond market may be quietly flashing warning lights beneath the surface.Along the way, they dig into the Fed’s latest rate cut, what’s really driving equity markets higher, and why Santa’s rally might not be as smooth as investors are hoping.This Week’s Highlights📉 Fed Cuts - But Changes the GameThe Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps, but quietly reintroduces QE at the short end of the bond market, earlier and more aggressively than expected.📊 Bond Market Warning SignsUS, Japanese and global long-dated bond yields rise despite rate cuts, raising questions about inflation, credibility, and future growth.🎥 Mega Deals & Market FrothA $75bn+ bidding war for Warner Bros and rumours of a SpaceX IPO at a $1.5tn valuation spark debate about market peaks.📈 Rotation Under the SurfaceWhile big tech cools, the Russell 2000 hits fresh highs, signalling rotation into smaller US companies.🤖 AI Reality CheckOracle disappoints, Nvidia cools, and capital expenditure concerns resurface, reminding investors that AI profits still need to show up in cash flows.🎄 Is the Santa Rally at Risk?With central banks, payroll data, inflation prints and global bond markets all in focus, the team debate whether year-end optimism can survive.Special Guest – Stu Thompson (Economist)Stu helps decode what’s happening beneath the headlines:📌 Why rising long-dated bond yields matter more than rate cuts📌 What QE vs QT actually means for markets📌 Why the yield curve is quietly steepening, and why that matters📌 How AI productivity is changing growth and employment forecastsPortfolio SnapshotWeekly performance: +1.15%Total return since inception: +10.95%Top performers: 🥇 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +7.22% 🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +7.20% 🥉 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: +1.52%Underperformers: 📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: –0.90% 📉 Vanguard FTSE 250 ETF: –0.67%What You’ll Learn✔️ Why equity markets can rise even as bond markets flash warnings✔️ How QE can return without anyone ringing the alarm bell✔️ Why the bond market sets the “price of risk” for everything else✔️ What rising yields really say about inflation and credibility✔️ How to spot market “froth” without panicking✔️ Why catalysts matter more than valuation alone📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: [email protected] for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.December Incentive – Get 5% cashback on your investments:FOR A LIMITED TIME WE’VE DOUBLED OUR OFFER: GET 10% CASHBACK UP TO £200. Open a new account and invest a minimum of £50 by 31 December, and keep at least £50 invested until March.You’ll receive 5% cashback on your invested value from 21 November to 31 December (max payout £100).Your capital is at risk. New customers only.Offer valid until 31/12/2025 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.📄 Full details & T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/5-percent-cashback-nov-25

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• Why Copper Belongs on Your Christmas List: How to Position Your Portfolio for a Santa Rally

  🏆 NOW AN AWARD-WINNING PODCASTHuge thank you to everyone who voted! TAOI just won Best Financial Podcast, Best Financial Analysis, and Best Investing Education at the Good Money Guide Awards.This week, Rich McDonald, Chris Fellingham and Mark “Spice” Holden break down one of the most complex macro weeks of the year. From Japan’s shock rate-rise chatter to a crypto wipeout, a commodities surge, and the portfolio’s push toward being fully invested for the potential Santa Rally…yes, we’ve added more copper!We answer a few listener questions;1. Should all investors be using a stop loss? 2. How to manage positions when taking profits and managing the downside risk?3. Should we all have an annual target return for our ISAs and how to manage investments when you hit your target early?This Week’s Highlights💥 Crypto Rollercoaster - Bitcoin dumps 10% right after last week’s episode… then rips back. China’s clampdown on illegal exchanges sparks volatility.💵 Dollar Weakness = Commodity Strength - A 1.5% fall in the dollar boosts metals across the board. Silver hits a new all-time high, gold approaches one and copper posts a new post-crash high.🇯🇵 Japan Shocks Markets - The Bank of Japan hints at a rate hike (from 0.5% to 0.75%), sending JGB yields to 1.9%, the highest in years.🎅 Santa Rally… Incoming? - December is typically strong, but Japan’s sudden move could complicate things.🇺🇸 US Markets Stay Resilient - The S&P 500 notches its 7th straight monthly gain.📉 Oil Wobbles - Tensions with Venezuela move prices, but weak structural supply keeps oil struggling.Macro Deep Dive: Japan, Yields & Why It MattersThe team translate Japan’s bond market into plain English:What a “30-year vs 10-year implied 20-year rate” actually tells usWhy the market is already pricing Japanese rates rising to ~4% over timeHow a rising yen hurts Nikkei earningsWhy Japan’s decades of deflation explain their ultra-cautious approach nowPortfolio Snapshot(as referenced in-episode — not final weekly numbers)Weekly Performance: +0.68%Total Return Since Inception: +9.8%Top Performers: 🥇 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +5.4% 🥈 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +3.34% 🥉 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +2.55%Underperformers:🇮🇳 iShares MSCI India ETF: –2.94%🌏 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF: –0.93%🇯🇵 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: –0.64%Actions Taken:We are now fully invested heading into year-end. • +2.5% WisdomTree Copper ETF • Cash now fully deployed, with Gilts acting as defensive ballastWhat You’ll LearnHow Japan’s bond market can move global stocksWhy a weak dollar supercharges metalsWhy India suddenly fell this weekHow professionals think about risk once they’ve hit a return targetThe psychology of selling winners and losersWhy copper may be the portfolio’s secret weapon for 2026📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: [email protected] for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.December Incentive – Get 5% cashback on your investments:Open a new account and invest a minimum of £50 by 31 December, and keep at least £50 invested until March.You’ll receive 5% cashback on your invested value from 21 November to 31 December (max payout £100).Your capital is at risk. New customers only.Offer valid until 31/12/2025 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.📄 Full details & T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/5-percent-cashback-nov-25

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• Reeves Budget Breakdown: Why We Are Reducing Our FTSE 250 Position

  🏆Enjoying the show? Cast your vote for us in the Good Money Guide Awards: https://goodmoneyguide.com/awards/finfluencer-awards/This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham break down one of the most dramatic weeks since the portfolio launched – a UK Budget that surprised market and confused economists.With the FTSE wobbling, the pound drifting, and US markets powering ahead, the team get into a heated (and very funny) debate about what the UK actually needs…and why investors are quietly moving their money elsewhere.Expect strong views, deeper macro insight than ever, and the biggest disagreement we’ve had on the show.This Week’s Highlights💥 Budget Blowback: Long-dated gilts jump, the pound slips and the market’s verdict is… not good. 🇺🇸 US Market Strength: S&P and Nasdaq continue pushing upwards as US data surprises on growth.📉 Crypto Volatility: Bitcoin chops sideways after last week’s selloff. 💷 UK in the Hot Seat: Does this Budget help growth or just recycle old problems?📈 Santa Rally Setup: Why the team thinks US equities could accelerate into year-end (despite the noise).🥊 The Big Argument: Rich and CJ clash on whether the UK is investable right now.Special Segment - The Budget Deep DiveThe team unpack the biggest Budget talking points:📊 Growth Forecast Confusion: Why the OBR and Treasury can’t agree on the 2026/27 outlook. 💸 Tax Tangle: Freezes, thresholds, and the hidden hikes no one talks about.🏛️ Credibility Check: Why gilt markets reacted sharply — and why it matters. 🏠 Housing Impact: Stamp duty chatter, ISA tweaks and who actually benefits. ⚠️ Is the UK Becoming a Value Trap? The debate gets lively.Portfolio SnapshotWeekly performance: +1.8%Total return since inception: +9%Top Performers: 🥇 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: +5.82% 🥈 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +4.8% 🥉 iShares S&P 500 GBP Hedged ETF: +2.92%Underperformers: 🇮🇳 iShares MSCI India ETF: –1.58% 🌏 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF: –0.27% 💷 Cash: +0.08%Actions Taken:• –5% Vanguard FTSE 250 ETF• +2.5% FTSE 100• +2.5% S&P 500 Hedged​What You’ll Learn How markets really price a Budget within minutes Why gilt yields are the UK’s “truth serum” Why higher taxes don’t always mean more revenue How sentiment flips between global markets Why the Santa Rally is a real thing (and when it fails) Why discipline, not prediction, drives portfolio returns📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: [email protected] for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.🏆 Vote for UsWe’ve been nominated in the Good Money Guide Finfluencer Awards – if you’re enjoying the show, we’d love your support. Vote here: https://goodmoneyguide.com/awards/finfluencer-awards/DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.November Incentive – Get 5% cashback on your investments:Open a new account and invest a minimum of £50 by 31 December, and keep at least £50 invested until March.You’ll receive 5% cashback on your invested value from 21 November to 31 December (max payout £100).Your capital is at risk. New customers only.Offer valid until 31/12/2025 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.📄 Full details & T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/5-percent-cashback-nov-25

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• Inside the Budget: Secrets, Strategies & Surprises with Adam Smith

  🏆Enjoying the show? Cast your vote for us in the Good Money Guide Awards: https://goodmoneyguide.com/awards/finfluencer-awards/This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by Adam Smith, former Special Advisor to the Chancellor, for the most inside-Treasury Budget preview we’ve ever recorded.With Rachel Reeves’ first Budget just days away, Adam explains how decisions really get made — the politics, pressure, fiscal rules, OBR scrutiny and the moments where things nearly go off the rails.Meanwhile, markets have been wild:• Bitcoin drops 35% from the highs• Nvidia posts one of the biggest earnings beats in history• The Fed cools December cut expectations• Long gilts sell off on credibility worries• And Rich… turns fully bullishThis Week’s Highlights💥 Crypto Crash: Bitcoin down another 10%; record ETF outflows📈 Nvidia Surge: A huge quarter steadies the NASDAQ🏦 Fed Cuts on Hold: Shutdown delays key data🇬🇧 Gilt Volatility: Income-tax U-turn sends yields 30bp higher⚡ AI Power Rush: 10 new US nuclear reactors approved🥊 Portfolio Debate: Rich buys the dip; Spice agrees; CJ isn’t sure🎩 Fantasy Budget: Adam, CJ, Spice & Rich pitch their own BudgetsSpecial Guest - Adam SmithAdam Smith, former Special Advisor to the Chancellor, reveals the real mechanics behind the Budget:📊 The Scorecard — every tax & spend decision in one spreadsheet🧮 Fiscal Rules — how they’re bent, stretched and stress-tested🏛️ OBR Checks — what survives scrutiny (and what doesn’t)🔥 Mini-Budget Lessons — why credibility beats headlines🔮 Next Week’s Budget — freezes, pension tweaks, revenue raisersPlus: the late-night calls, panic moments and political chaos behind every fiscal event.Portfolio Snapshot:Weekly performance: – 2.6%Total return since inception: +7.20%Top Performers:🥇 iShares MSCI India ETF – +1.07%🥈 Cash – +0.08%🥉 iShares UK Gilts 0–5yr ETF – –0.13%Underperformers:🪙 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain ETF – –14.74%🇯🇵 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF – – 4.94%🇺🇸 iShares Russell 2000 ETF – – 4.27%Actions Taken:Adding to portfolio:+2.5% NASDAQ 100+2.5% VanEck Crypto ETFWhat You’ll LearnHow Budgets are really builtWhy credibility matters more than the policyWhich tax levers actually raise moneyWhat drives crypto deleveragingWhy AI infrastructure is a new macro themeHow markets price Budget moves instantlyWhy too much cash destroys long-term returns📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: [email protected] for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.Vote for Us 🏆We’ve been nominated in the Good Money Guide Finfluencer Awards - if you’re enjoying the show, we’d love your support.Vote here: https://goodmoneyguide.com/awards/finfluencer-awards/DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.November Incentive – Get 5% cashback on your investments:Open a new account and invest a minimum of £50 by 31 December, and keep at least £50 invested until March.You’ll receive 5% cashback on your invested value from 21 November to 31 December (max payout £100).Your capital is at risk. New customers only.Offer valid until 31/12/2025 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.📄 Full details & T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/5-percent-cashback-nov-25

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• The Psychology That Makes Or Breaks Investing - With Lee Freeman-Shor

  🏆Enjoying the show? Cast your vote for us in the Good Money Guide Awards: https://goodmoneyguide.com/awards/finfluencer-awards/Welcome to Episode 19 of The Art of Investing - brought to you by IG, the global investing platform.This week, the team hand over the mic to Lee Freeman-Shor, fund manager turned author of The Art of Execution - the book that proves great investors aren’t defined by their ideas, but by what they do when those ideas go right…or wrong.Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham dive into the psychology behind winning (and losing) in the markets. Expect honesty, humour and a full audit of everyone’s personal investing “tribe” - Rabbit, Assassin, Hunter, Raider or Connoisseur.This Week’s Highlights:💥 Markets: US narrowly avoids a shutdown, the dollar softens 1%, and commodity strength pushes the FTSE 100 to another all-time high.📉 Crypto Cool-off: Bitcoin recovers slightly but remains 5% below last week’s lows.🤖 Tech Watch: Nvidia earnings ahead - and SoftBank trims its stake ahead of the event.🏦 UK Macro: GDP flat at 0.1% as unemployment rises to 5%, fuelling December rate-cut speculation.⛏️ Commodity Rally: Gold +4.9%, copper +2.5% as a weaker dollar lifts real assets.Special Guest - Lee Freeman-Shor:Key Behavioural Traits That Could Kill a Portfolio:Holding onto LosersSelling Winners Too EarlyLack of Conviction/ActionLee breaks down the five “investor tribes” from his research:🐇 Rabbits - freeze when underwater🗡️ Assassins - cut losers fast🎯 Hunters - double down intelligently⚔️ Raiders - take profits too soon🏆 Connoisseurs - hold winners properlyPlus: why even elite fund managers only get 3/10 stock picks right, and what the top performers actually do differently.Portfolio Snapshot:Weekly performance: +0.4%Total return since inception: +9.8%Top Performers:🥇 BlackRock World Mining Trust — +5.54%🥈 iShares Physical Gold ETC - +4.66%🥉 WisdomTree Copper ETF - +2.56%Underperformers:🪙 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF - -16.80%📉 Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 ETF - -1.23%🇯🇵 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF - -0.70%Actions Taken:No new trades this week.Team reviewing potential adjustments next week based on the quarterly review.What You’ll Learn:Why psychology drives returns more than stock pickingHow to identify your investing tribeWhy “hope” is the most dangerous investment strategyWhy disciplined selling beats clever buyingWhat separates the top 2% of investors from everyone else📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: [email protected] for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.Vote for Us 🏆We’ve been nominated in the Good Money Guide Finfluencer Awards - if you’re enjoying the show, we’d love your support.Vote here: https://goodmoneyguide.com/awards/finfluencer-awards/DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.November Free Share Bundle:Grow your portfolio with IG. Invest £50 with IG and get a free share bundle worth between £40 and £200. Make your first investment into an ISA, GIA or SIPP account before the 30th November and benefit from Commission-Free Investing as well as 4% Variable Interest on Cash. Other fees may apply, T&Cs found here or on ig.com/uk

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