The Art of Investing

Happy New Year and welcome to The Art of Investing’s 2026 Outlook Special.Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by economist Stu Thompson to cut through the noise and focus on the big themes that could shape markets in 2026. Not next week’s headlines, not bank price targets, but the forces that really matter for long-term investors.With consensus forecasts pointing to steady growth and falling rates, the team challenge whether markets have become complacent. From Japan’s bond market and the unwinding of the yen carry trade, to a weaker US dollar, stubborn inflation risks and rising political volatility, this episode is all about understanding where the real risks, and opportunities, may lie next year.This Week’s Focus, The Big Themes for 2026:🇯🇵 Japan & the Yen Carry TradeWhy rising Japanese bond yields could trigger a global competition for capital, and why this matters far beyond Tokyo.📈 Bond Yields & Competition for CapitalLong-dated government bond yields are rising as investors demand higher returns. What that means for equities, portfolios and risk appetite.💵 Dollar WeaknessStu explains why the US dollar could be one of the weaker major currencies in 2026, and why commodities may benefit as a result.🔥 Inflation Isn’t DeadStronger growth, fiscal stimulus and a weaker dollar could keep inflation firmer than markets expect, reshaping rate expectations.🏛️ Politics & VolatilityFrom US midterms to UK political instability, the team explore how political pressure often leads to market-moving policy decisions.🤖 AI Meets RealityAfter driving markets higher, AI stocks may face tougher questions in 2026 as investors demand real returns, not just promises.Big Questions the Team Debate:• Are markets underestimating inflation risks in 2026?• Could Japan’s bond market be the catalyst for global volatility?• Is a weaker dollar inevitable, and how should investors prepare?• Can equities thrive if interest rates don’t fall as much as expected?• Why sitting on some cash isn’t “bearish”, it’s optionalityWhat You’ll Learn:✔️ Why consensus forecasts are often the least useful input✔️ How rising bond yields can quietly pressure risk assets✔️ Why commodities often outperform when currencies weaken✔️ How professionals think about risk before it shows up in prices✔️ Why investing is about positioning, not prediction📧 Get in touch: [email protected]📈 Subscribe for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.January Incentive:7.5% AER variable interest on cash balance up to £10,000.Promotion from 1 January 2026 until 16 January 2026. First trade must be made before 16th January. Interest boosted from First Trade until 31st March 2026.Your capital is at risk.New customers only. Offer valid until 16/01/2026 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.

Merry Christmas and welcome to a special Best Bits episode of The Art of Investing.To round off 2025, we’re revisiting some of the most memorable moments from 2025, the bold calls, the big debates, the lessons learned the hard way, and the moments that genuinely made us laugh.From investor psychology and AI optimism, to Budget chaos, bond market nerves and why selling well matters more than buying smart, this episode is a reminder of what really drives long-term returns.Whether you’re catching up over the holidays or revisiting your favourite moments, this is The Art of Investing at its best.What You’ll Hear in This Episode:🧠 Investor Psychology with Lee Freeman-ShorWhy great investors aren’t defined by how many winners they pick, but by what they do when things go wrong.Rabbits, Assassins, Hunters and the hard reality of cutting losses before they cut you.❤️ Falling in Love with Your WinnersSpice tells the story of his best ever investment, and why selling 20% down after a 20-fold gain was the right decision.🤖 AI, Circular Deals & Déjà VuWhy self-funding loops in tech can be a warning sign, and why markets have “seen this film before”.🏛️ Inside the Truss Mini-BudgetAdam Smith pulls back the curtain on the chaos, the ignored process, and the moment markets lost confidence, including the phone call Jeremy Hunt thought was a prank.📉 Why Every Institution Wants an Economist (Even When They’re Wrong)Stu Thompson explains the political pressure behind forecasts, and why being wrong doesn’t always carry consequences.📈 The Goldilocks SetupSpice lays out why the next 12–18 months could be a sweet spot for markets: falling rates, easing inflation and strong growth.🇬🇧 The Rise, and Decline, of the UK Stock MarketA hard look at how pensions, policy and decades of selling pressure reshaped UK equities.💵 Bonds, Nervy Middles & Getting Paid to WaitChris Bowie explains why the best bond opportunities appear when everyone else is uncomfortable.🎄 Why This Episode Matters✔️ Markets reward behaviour, not predictions✔️ Psychology matters more than ideas✔️ Crises create opportunity — if you can stay disciplined✔️ The “nervy middle” is where real returns are made📧 Get in touch: [email protected]📈 Subscribe for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.December Incentive – Get 5% cashback on your investments:FOR A LIMITED TIME WE’VE DOUBLED OUR OFFER: GET 10% CASHBACK UP TO £200. Open a new account and invest a minimum of £50 by 31 December, and keep at least £50 invested until March.You’ll receive 5% cashback on your invested value from 21 November to 31 December (max payout £100).Your capital is at risk. New customers only.Offer valid until 31/12/2025 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.📄 Full details & T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/5-percent-cashback-nov-25

This week’s episode is the Christmas Party Special. The tone is festive, but the market conversation is anything but fluffy.Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham reflect on a volatile end to the year, asking whether the long-awaited Santa Rally is simply late… or quietly getting back on track. With US markets lagging, tech wobbling, commodities rallying and rate cuts finally landing, the team cut through the noise to focus on one thing: how investors should be positioning for 2026, and what actually matters from here.Expect market history, sharp portfolio insight, a few war stories from the trading floor, and more than a few Christmas crackers.This Week’s Highlights🎅 Santa Rally WatchMarkets wobble into year-end, but improving inflation and rate cuts raise hopes of a late festive surge.📉 Tech Reality CheckAI poster children stumble as capital spending rises faster than revenues, raising questions about valuation and patience.🇺🇸 US Market LagFor once, the US underperforms global peers, forcing investors to rethink weightings and concentration risk.⛏️ Commodity ComebackGold, copper and mining stocks shine as rate cuts, a softer dollar and China stimulus expectations lift hard assets.🏦 Rates Finally FallingThe Bank of England cuts rates as inflation cools, while US data strengthens the case for further easing in 2026.🎄 Year-End GamesThe team lift the lid on how professional investors manage portfolios, and sometimes “massage” prices, into year-end.Portfolio SnapshotWeekly performance: -0.89%Total return since inception: +10.06%Top Performers: 🥇 iShares Physical Gold ETC: +2.53% 🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +2.26% 🥉 Vanguard FTSE 250 ETF: +1.64% Underperformers: 🪙 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: –15.34% 📉 Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 ETF: –3.59% 🇯🇵 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: –2.67%Big Questions the Team Debate• Is the Santa Rally delayed, or quietly forming?• Are tech valuations finally being stress-tested?• Should investors reduce US concentration after years of dominance?• Is copper now more compelling than gold?• How should portfolios really be reviewed at year-end?What You’ll Learn✔️ Why markets often rally after bad news, not before✔️ How professional investors think about year-end positioning✔️ Why commodities thrive when rates fall and currencies weaken✔️ How to audit your portfolio properly over Christmas✔️ Why long-term investors shouldn’t fear all-time highs📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: [email protected] for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.December Incentive – Get 5% cashback on your investments:FOR A LIMITED TIME WE’VE DOUBLED OUR OFFER: GET 10% CASHBACK UP TO £200. Open a new account and invest a minimum of £50 by 31 December, and keep at least £50 invested until March.You’ll receive 5% cashback on your invested value from 21 November to 31 December (max payout £100).Your capital is at risk. New customers only.Offer valid until 31/12/2025 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.📄 Full details & T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/5-percent-cashback-nov-25

Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined once again by economist Stu Thompson for a wide-ranging episode that uncovers why QE and the Fed Cuts might just be kicking off the Santa Rally, and how it's multiplying your portfolio returns.From blockbuster takeover bids and trillion-dollar IPO rumours, to a surprise return of quantitative easing and rising long-dated bond yields, the team unpack a week full of “toppy” signals, and explain why the bond market may be quietly flashing warning lights beneath the surface.Along the way, they dig into the Fed’s latest rate cut, what’s really driving equity markets higher, and why Santa’s rally might not be as smooth as investors are hoping.This Week’s Highlights📉 Fed Cuts - But Changes the GameThe Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps, but quietly reintroduces QE at the short end of the bond market, earlier and more aggressively than expected.📊 Bond Market Warning SignsUS, Japanese and global long-dated bond yields rise despite rate cuts, raising questions about inflation, credibility, and future growth.🎥 Mega Deals & Market FrothA $75bn+ bidding war for Warner Bros and rumours of a SpaceX IPO at a $1.5tn valuation spark debate about market peaks.📈 Rotation Under the SurfaceWhile big tech cools, the Russell 2000 hits fresh highs, signalling rotation into smaller US companies.🤖 AI Reality CheckOracle disappoints, Nvidia cools, and capital expenditure concerns resurface, reminding investors that AI profits still need to show up in cash flows.🎄 Is the Santa Rally at Risk?With central banks, payroll data, inflation prints and global bond markets all in focus, the team debate whether year-end optimism can survive.Special Guest – Stu Thompson (Economist)Stu helps decode what’s happening beneath the headlines:📌 Why rising long-dated bond yields matter more than rate cuts📌 What QE vs QT actually means for markets📌 Why the yield curve is quietly steepening, and why that matters📌 How AI productivity is changing growth and employment forecastsPortfolio SnapshotWeekly performance: +1.15%Total return since inception: +10.95%Top performers: 🥇 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +7.22% 🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +7.20% 🥉 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: +1.52%Underperformers: 📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: –0.90% 📉 Vanguard FTSE 250 ETF: –0.67%What You’ll Learn✔️ Why equity markets can rise even as bond markets flash warnings✔️ How QE can return without anyone ringing the alarm bell✔️ Why the bond market sets the “price of risk” for everything else✔️ What rising yields really say about inflation and credibility✔️ How to spot market “froth” without panicking✔️ Why catalysts matter more than valuation alone📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: [email protected] for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.December Incentive – Get 5% cashback on your investments:FOR A LIMITED TIME WE’VE DOUBLED OUR OFFER: GET 10% CASHBACK UP TO £200. Open a new account and invest a minimum of £50 by 31 December, and keep at least £50 invested until March.You’ll receive 5% cashback on your invested value from 21 November to 31 December (max payout £100).Your capital is at risk. New customers only.Offer valid until 31/12/2025 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.📄 Full details & T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/5-percent-cashback-nov-25

🏆 NOW AN AWARD-WINNING PODCASTHuge thank you to everyone who voted! TAOI just won Best Financial Podcast, Best Financial Analysis, and Best Investing Education at the Good Money Guide Awards.This week, Rich McDonald, Chris Fellingham and Mark “Spice” Holden break down one of the most complex macro weeks of the year. From Japan’s shock rate-rise chatter to a crypto wipeout, a commodities surge, and the portfolio’s push toward being fully invested for the potential Santa Rally…yes, we’ve added more copper!We answer a few listener questions;1. Should all investors be using a stop loss? 2. How to manage positions when taking profits and managing the downside risk?3. Should we all have an annual target return for our ISAs and how to manage investments when you hit your target early?This Week’s Highlights💥 Crypto Rollercoaster - Bitcoin dumps 10% right after last week’s episode… then rips back. China’s clampdown on illegal exchanges sparks volatility.💵 Dollar Weakness = Commodity Strength - A 1.5% fall in the dollar boosts metals across the board. Silver hits a new all-time high, gold approaches one and copper posts a new post-crash high.🇯🇵 Japan Shocks Markets - The Bank of Japan hints at a rate hike (from 0.5% to 0.75%), sending JGB yields to 1.9%, the highest in years.🎅 Santa Rally… Incoming? - December is typically strong, but Japan’s sudden move could complicate things.🇺🇸 US Markets Stay Resilient - The S&P 500 notches its 7th straight monthly gain.📉 Oil Wobbles - Tensions with Venezuela move prices, but weak structural supply keeps oil struggling.Macro Deep Dive: Japan, Yields & Why It MattersThe team translate Japan’s bond market into plain English:What a “30-year vs 10-year implied 20-year rate” actually tells usWhy the market is already pricing Japanese rates rising to ~4% over timeHow a rising yen hurts Nikkei earningsWhy Japan’s decades of deflation explain their ultra-cautious approach nowPortfolio Snapshot(as referenced in-episode — not final weekly numbers)Weekly Performance: +0.68%Total Return Since Inception: +9.8%Top Performers: 🥇 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +5.4% 🥈 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +3.34% 🥉 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +2.55%Underperformers:🇮🇳 iShares MSCI India ETF: –2.94%🌏 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF: –0.93%🇯🇵 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: –0.64%Actions Taken:We are now fully invested heading into year-end. • +2.5% WisdomTree Copper ETF • Cash now fully deployed, with Gilts acting as defensive ballastWhat You’ll LearnHow Japan’s bond market can move global stocksWhy a weak dollar supercharges metalsWhy India suddenly fell this weekHow professionals think about risk once they’ve hit a return targetThe psychology of selling winners and losersWhy copper may be the portfolio’s secret weapon for 2026📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: [email protected] for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.December Incentive – Get 5% cashback on your investments:Open a new account and invest a minimum of £50 by 31 December, and keep at least £50 invested until March.You’ll receive 5% cashback on your invested value from 21 November to 31 December (max payout £100).Your capital is at risk. New customers only.Offer valid until 31/12/2025 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.📄 Full details & T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/5-percent-cashback-nov-25