The Art of Investing

This week, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham unpack one of the most volatile macro weeks of the year, from Japan’s bond market shock to Trump’s Davos comments, rising geopolitical tension, and a sharp shift in momentum across assets.

With Japanese yields spiking to multi-decade highs, markets wobbling on Greenland headlines, and gold once again leading the leaderboard, the team debate whether this is a temporary scare… or the early warning signs of something bigger. Crucially, they also make a major portfolio decision, raising cash and reassessing risk after a strong run of returns.

Expect macro depth, proper portfolio debate, and a real-time look at how professional investors react when markets move fast.

This Week’s Highlights:
🇯🇵 Japan Bond Shock
40-year Japanese government bond yields spike, triggering global bond and equity volatility.

🌍 Geopolitics Returns
Greenland, NATO tensions and Trump’s Davos comments briefly rattle markets before a sharp relief rally.

📉 Momentum Rotates
Gold and mining stocks surge while crypto and copper lag as capital chases safety and trend.

🪙 Crypto vs Gold
Bitcoin slides while gold hits new highs, reigniting the “digital gold” debate.

🏦 Central Bank Power
The Bank of Japan draws a clear line in the sand, reminding markets who’s really in control.

Portfolio Snapshot:
Weekly performance: –0.7%
Total return since inception: +15.5%

Top Performers (WoW)
🥇 iShares Physical Gold ETC: +4.83%
🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +2.54%
🥉 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF: +1.14%

Underperformers (WoW)
📉 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: –4.66%
📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: –4.15%
📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: –3.49%

Big Decisions This Week:
🔄 Raising Cash
The team reduce exposure to gold and US equities, moving 10% of the portfolio into cash to reassess risk after strong gains.

💬 Live Debate
Should profits be locked in after a big run, or is stepping aside the biggest risk of all?

What You’ll Learn:
✔️ Why Japan’s bond market matters far beyond Tokyo
✔️ How central banks really control market stress
✔️ Why momentum dominates during uncertain periods
✔️ When raising cash is smart, and when it’s costly
✔️ How professionals manage portfolios during fast-moving macro shocks

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here
📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer:
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

January Incentive
Move your investment portfolio to IG and you’ll get up to £2,000 cashback. Simply open a general investment account, ISA, or SIPP by 30 January and get 1% cashback on your transferred investments.
1% cashback on the total Qualifying Transfers initiated between 1 January and 30 January 2026
The maximum payout is £2,000.

Your capital is at risk. New customers only. Offer valid until 30/01/2026 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.
📋T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/transfer-1-percent-cashback-jan-26

This week, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by Frances Donald, Chief Economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and regular commentator on CNBC, Fox News and Bloomberg. Tune in to talk what really matters in markets right now, and what most investors are still missing.
With geopolitics flaring, commodities surging, and uncertainty everywhere from Washington to Tokyo, the team unpack the difference between cyclical noise and structural change, and why traditional economic playbooks may no longer work. Expect deep macro insight, plenty of laughs, and a fresh way of thinking about inflation, labour markets, AI, and the future of growth.

This Week’s Highlights
🌍 Geopolitics Everywhere
Trump, Iran, Venezuela and Greenland keep markets on edge, with slow-burn risks proving harder to price than headline shocks.
⛏️ Commodities Take the Lead
Gold, silver, copper and mining stocks power higher as inflation hedging, geopolitics and supply constraints collide.
🏦 Banks & Bonds in Focus
US bank earnings beat expectations, but political pressure on credit card rates rattles lenders and investors.
🪙 Crypto Stabilises
Bitcoin rebounds, helped by renewed institutional buying and improving sentiment after recent volatility.
🇯🇵 Japan Breaks the Trend
A snap election sends the yen lower and Japanese bond yields higher, the only major market seeing rising yields this week.

Special Guest: Frances Donald
Frances Donald, Chief Economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, joins the team to explain why the old business cycle framework is breaking down, and what should replace it.
She covers:
Why mass retirements are reshaping labour markets
How demographics are flattening economic cycles
Why inflation risks haven’t disappeared, just gone quiet
The rise of “structural” growth drivers like healthcare, AI and government spending
Why Canada may be far better positioned in the new global order than many investors realise
Plus: why economists got 2023 so wrong, and what they need to do differently going forward.

Portfolio Snapshot
Weekly performance: +1.9%
Total return since inception: +16.2%

Top Performers:
🥇 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +6.4%
🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +4.7%
🥉 iShares Physical Gold ETC: +2.3%
⛏️ WisdomTree Copper ETF: +2.0%

Underperformers:
📉 Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 ETF: -1.4%
📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: -0.5%
📉 iShares S&P 500 GBP Hedged ETF: -0.5%
📉 Vanguard FTSE 250 ETF: -0.4%

What You’ll Learn
✔️ Why demographics matter more than GDP cycles
✔️ How retirements are changing inflation and growth dynamics
✔️ Why traditional recession indicators failed
✔️ How geopolitics really feeds into asset prices
✔️ Why diversification is finally paying off again

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here
📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.
Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

January Incentive
Move your investment portfolio to IG and you’ll get up to £2,000 cashback. Simply open a general investment account, ISA, or SIPP by 30 January and get 1% cashback on your transferred investments.

1% cashback on the total Qualifying Transfers initiated between 1 January and 30 January 2026
The maximum payout is £2,000.

Your capital is at risk. New customers only. Offer valid until 30/01/2026 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.
📋T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/transfer-1-percent-cashback-jan-26

The first episode of 2026 kicks off with a bang as Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham review a late but powerful Santa Rally, a standout quarter for commodities, and one of the strongest periods of performance since the portfolio launched. Listen to find out why we are cashing out our best performer!

With markets pushing to new highs and geopolitics back in focus, the team break down what’s really driving returns, and make their first meaningful portfolio changes of the year as they position for a potentially more volatile 2026.

This Week’s Highlights:
📈 Santa Rally (Finally)
Equities and commodities surge into year-end, with global markets hitting fresh highs.

🇬🇧 FTSE 100 Above 10,000
A major milestone for UK markets despite years of investor outflows.

⛏️ Commodity Leadership
Gold, copper and mining stocks dominate as rate cuts and geopolitics collide.

🪙 Crypto Whiplash
Sharp moves in crypto-linked equities underline fast-changing sentiment.

🏦 Rates & Bonds
Cooling US inflation steadies bonds, while Japan bucks the global trend.

🌍 Geopolitics Returns
Defence spending, elections and global tensions shape the 2026 outlook.

Portfolio Snapshot - Week 21:
Weekly performance: +4.23%
Total return since inception: +14.29%

Top Performers
🥇 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +12.10%
🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +10.66%
🥉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +8.11%

Steadier Contributors
• iShares MSCI India ETF: +2.52%
• iShares Physical Gold ETC: +2.42%
• iShares UK Gilts 0-5 Year ETF: +0.36%

Q4 Quarterly Review (Oct–Dec):
A standout quarter driven by real assets and diversification.

📊 Best Q4 Performers
• BlackRock World Mining Trust: +29.38%
• WisdomTree Copper ETF: +20.51%
• iShares Physical Gold ETC: +15.94%
• Nikkei 225 ETF: +9.60%

📉 Weak Spots
• VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: –12.42% (Q4)
The quarter reinforces a key theme: commodities and diversification mattered more than mega-cap tech.

Actions Taken – Portfolio Changes:
- 5% BlackRock World Mining Trust
- 10% UK Gilts 0-5 years (all of position)
+15% iShares $ Treasury Bond 7-10yr ETF

Current positioning:
• ~67.5% equities
• ~22.5% commodities
• ~10% bonds & defensive assets

What You’ll Learn:
✔️ Why commodities dominated Q4
✔️ How professionals trim winners
✔️ Why bonds still matter
✔️ How geopolitics feeds into markets
✔️ Why diversification is back

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here
📊 Download the full Quarterly Review Slides
View the Quarterly Review: here
📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
Subscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer:
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.
Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

January Incentive:
7.5% AER variable interest on cash balance up to £10,000.
Promotion from 1 January 2026 until 16 January 2026. First trade must be made before 16 January. Interest boosted from First Trade until 31 March 2026.
Your capital is at risk.
New customers only. Offer valid until 16/01/2026 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.

Happy New Year and welcome to The Art of Investing’s 2026 Outlook Special.

Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by economist Stu Thompson to cut through the noise and focus on the big themes that could shape markets in 2026. Not next week’s headlines, not bank price targets, but the forces that really matter for long-term investors.

With consensus forecasts pointing to steady growth and falling rates, the team challenge whether markets have become complacent. From Japan’s bond market and the unwinding of the yen carry trade, to a weaker US dollar, stubborn inflation risks and rising political volatility, this episode is all about understanding where the real risks, and opportunities, may lie next year.

This Week’s Focus, The Big Themes for 2026:
🇯🇵 Japan & the Yen Carry Trade
Why rising Japanese bond yields could trigger a global competition for capital, and why this matters far beyond Tokyo.

📈 Bond Yields & Competition for Capital
Long-dated government bond yields are rising as investors demand higher returns. What that means for equities, portfolios and risk appetite.

💵 Dollar Weakness
Stu explains why the US dollar could be one of the weaker major currencies in 2026, and why commodities may benefit as a result.

🔥 Inflation Isn’t Dead
Stronger growth, fiscal stimulus and a weaker dollar could keep inflation firmer than markets expect, reshaping rate expectations.

🏛️ Politics & Volatility
From US midterms to UK political instability, the team explore how political pressure often leads to market-moving policy decisions.

🤖 AI Meets Reality
After driving markets higher, AI stocks may face tougher questions in 2026 as investors demand real returns, not just promises.

Big Questions the Team Debate:
• Are markets underestimating inflation risks in 2026?
• Could Japan’s bond market be the catalyst for global volatility?
• Is a weaker dollar inevitable, and how should investors prepare?
• Can equities thrive if interest rates don’t fall as much as expected?
• Why sitting on some cash isn’t “bearish”, it’s optionality

What You’ll Learn:
✔️ Why consensus forecasts are often the least useful input
✔️ How rising bond yields can quietly pressure risk assets
✔️ Why commodities often outperform when currencies weaken
✔️ How professionals think about risk before it shows up in prices
✔️ Why investing is about positioning, not prediction

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
📈 Subscribe for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

January Incentive:
7.5% AER variable interest on cash balance up to £10,000.

Promotion from 1 January 2026 until 16 January 2026. First trade must be made before 16th January. Interest boosted from First Trade until 31st March 2026.

Your capital is at risk.

New customers only. Offer valid until 16/01/2026 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.

Merry Christmas and welcome to a special Best Bits episode of The Art of Investing.
To round off 2025, we’re revisiting some of the most memorable moments from 2025, the bold calls, the big debates, the lessons learned the hard way, and the moments that genuinely made us laugh.
From investor psychology and AI optimism, to Budget chaos, bond market nerves and why selling well matters more than buying smart, this episode is a reminder of what really drives long-term returns.
Whether you’re catching up over the holidays or revisiting your favourite moments, this is The Art of Investing at its best.

What You’ll Hear in This Episode:
🧠 Investor Psychology with Lee Freeman-Shor
Why great investors aren’t defined by how many winners they pick, but by what they do when things go wrong.
Rabbits, Assassins, Hunters and the hard reality of cutting losses before they cut you.
❤️ Falling in Love with Your Winners
Spice tells the story of his best ever investment, and why selling 20% down after a 20-fold gain was the right decision.
🤖 AI, Circular Deals & Déjà Vu
Why self-funding loops in tech can be a warning sign, and why markets have “seen this film before”.
🏛️ Inside the Truss Mini-Budget
Adam Smith pulls back the curtain on the chaos, the ignored process, and the moment markets lost confidence, including the phone call Jeremy Hunt thought was a prank.
📉 Why Every Institution Wants an Economist (Even When They’re Wrong)
Stu Thompson explains the political pressure behind forecasts, and why being wrong doesn’t always carry consequences.
📈 The Goldilocks Setup
Spice lays out why the next 12–18 months could be a sweet spot for markets: falling rates, easing inflation and strong growth.
🇬🇧 The Rise, and Decline, of the UK Stock Market
A hard look at how pensions, policy and decades of selling pressure reshaped UK equities.
💵 Bonds, Nervy Middles & Getting Paid to Wait
Chris Bowie explains why the best bond opportunities appear when everyone else is uncomfortable.

🎄 Why This Episode Matters
✔️ Markets reward behaviour, not predictions
✔️ Psychology matters more than ideas
✔️ Crises create opportunity — if you can stay disciplined
✔️ The “nervy middle” is where real returns are made

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
📈 Subscribe for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.

Disclaimer
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.
December Incentive – Get 5% cashback on your investments:

FOR A LIMITED TIME WE’VE DOUBLED OUR OFFER: GET 10% CASHBACK UP TO £200.

Open a new account and invest a minimum of £50 by 31 December, and keep at least £50 invested until March.
You’ll receive 5% cashback on your invested value from 21 November to 31 December (max payout £100).
Your capital is at risk. New customers only.
Offer valid until 31/12/2025 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.
📄 Full details & T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/5-percent-cashback-nov-25