The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix...
Why FX Volatility Will Dominate Markets In 2025 | Brent Donnelly
In this episode, Brent Donnelly joins the show to discuss his tariff expectations, how that will impact the currency market, and the framework he uses for trading FX. We also delve into carry trades, China and the yuan, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Brent Donnelly: https://x.com/donnelly_brent
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
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SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:13) Make FX Great Again
(01:51) Tariff Expectations
(07:52) Inflation, Yields, & The Dollar
(13:30) Ads (Skale, Ledger)
(14:39) The Fed Reaction Function
(17:27) Equity Valuations
(19:23) FX Framework
(28:02) Ads (Skale, Ledger)
(29:19) Carry Trades
(34:32) BOJ & Market Surprises
(42:17) Canada & CAD/USD
(47:21) China & Yuan
(53:40) Long-Term Dollar View
(56:55) Learn More About Brent’s Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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57:38
CPI, Yields, & The Growth Debate | Weekly Roundup
This week we discuss what the latest CPI data means for markets, whether we’re in the early stages of the credit cycle, and trading Inauguration day. We also delve into the crypto reserve debate, the potential BOJ rate hike, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UR_BWMbyzFgxqrCEZ6DjhGK36TDJQEjX/view?usp=sharing
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(02:44) CPI & Inflation
(09:03) Yields, Positioning, & Market Whipsaw
(12:27) Growth Debate
(22:01) Ads
(23:16) Equity Contra-Indicators
(27:54) Inauguration Day: Buy Or Sell The News?
(31:14) Crypto Reserve Debate
(35:11) Bonds Recycling Into Other Assets
(37:05) Fiat Debasement & Trump
(39:23) Japan & BOJ Rate Hike
(45:20) Nasdaq Vs Small Caps
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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47:29
What A Growth Scare Means For The Fed & Markets | Warren Pies
In this episode, Warren Pies joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2025, his view of the housing market, and why he thinks inflation fears are overblown. We also delve into equity valuations, the long bond trade, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Warren Pies: https://x.com/WarrenPies
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:20) 2025 Outlook
(05:50) Economic Tensions & The Bond Market
(11:21) Fed Terminal Rate & Restrictiveness
(16:29) Housing Market & Employment
(23:43) Impact Of LA Fires
(26:48) Ads
(28:45) December SEP
(32:25) Rate Cut Expectations
(34:56) Inflation Overview
(39:50) Debating Case For Sticky Inflation
(43:12) Equity Valuations
(50:19) Growth Vs Value
(52:59) Long Bond Trade
(56:23) Commodities Outlook
(57:41) Learn More About Warren’s Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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59:22
Global Yields Nearing A Breaking Point | Weekly Roundup
This week we discuss the looming growth scare, the dollar wrecking ball driving a global margin call, and global yields nearing an inflection point. We also delve into the housing affordability crisis, the public spending problem, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vUv3VzZIBynaGgOynsWw6iCbWicPhH8x/view?usp=sharing
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:55) December Jobs Report
(06:16) Other Labor Market Data
(07:50) Is The Cutting Cycle Over?
(11:24) DAS 2025
(14:34) Economic Slowdown In 2025?
(20:57) Global Margin Call
(27:10) Dollar Dilemma
(29:58) Global Bond Yields
(33:20) Yield Curve Dynamics
(35:22) Trifecta Of Tightening
(37:25) Crypto Politics
(39:16) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold
(40:05) Ads
(42:03) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold (Con't)
(45:24) Trump Administration & Uncertainty Hysteria
(49:12) NFP Prediction
(49:52) TLT & Positioning
(52:13) Housing Affordability Crisis
(57:05) Yield Solutions
(59:59) 2-Year Trade
(01:01:12) Bitcoin & The Inauguration
(01:04:22) Public Spending Problem
(01:11:15) Decentralization Of Everything
(01:12:35) Killing The Four Year Cycle Narrative
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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1:14:10
FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann
In this episode, Joe McCann joins the show to discuss why he’s tactically bearish, the US dollar’s implications for risk assets, and his crypto shopping list. We also delve into bottom signals, the outlook for 2025, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Joe McCann: https://x.com/joemccann
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io
—
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:54 Macro & Crypto Overview
10:01 Implications Of Hawkish Fed
13:37 Inauguration & The US Dollar
18:43 Ads
20:41 Crypto Market Outlook
24:39 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
27:36 Crypto Shopping List
33:02 Bottom Signals
36:53 2025 Outlook
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.