Forward Guidance

• Unpacking The Fed & Treasury’s Master Plan | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss the big takeaways from the Fed Meeting Minutes, Bessent’s remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation, and the near-term liquidity picture. We also delve into oil and energy policy, the limited upside in crypto right now, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ziABEksWyIgTom9idgy5HhVyThbd3Kyb/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) FOMC Meeting Minutes (06:29) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (16:20) Skale Ad (16:42) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't) (20:15) Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective (22:41) Skale Ad (23:12) Liquidity Concerns and QT (27:07) Inflation and Economic Growth (29:11) Oil & Global Energy Policies (32:21) Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx (33:43) Yen & DAX (38:09) Crypto Market Update __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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• Volatility Hedge Fund Manager Unpacks Derivatives Misconceptions | Benn Eifert

  In this episode, Benn Eifert joins the show to discuss derivative & volatility strategies, the biggest derivatives misconceptions, and flaws with Stephen Miran’s tariff arguments. We also delve into volatility risk under the Trump administration, how to think about VIX percentage moves, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Benn Eifert: https://x.com/bennpeifert Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:32) Understanding Volatility-Focused Hedge Funds (04:12) Tools and Strategies in Volatility Trading (11:21) The Rise of Derivative-Based ETFs (19:03) Skale Ad (19:27) The Rise of Derivative-Based ETFs (Con't) (27:15) Risks and Misconceptions in Retail Options Trading (32:06) Skale Ad (32:36) Risks and Misconceptions in Retail Options Trading (Con’t) (37:09) Options Trading (41:07) Implied Probabilities and Market Misconceptions (44:17) The Reality of Options Pricing Models (47:06) Impact of Derivatives on the Market (57:47) Navigating Volatility in the Trump Era (01:01:01) Debating the Merits of Tariffs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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• Is Trump Actually Good For Markets? | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss the latest CPI data, how the Trump administration will balance economic vs market success, and the constant economic headfakes. We also delve into how the government kicks the can without QE, MicroStrategy holding up Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kJjbC4s7DKMR3nU0_6C242oEhrfYH67O/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:03) Analyzing the Latest CPI Data (10:56) Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Headfakes (16:53) Skale Ad (17:15) Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Headfakes (Con't) (29:34) Skale Ad (30:04) Roundup Continues (32:51) Liquidity Concerns (34:49) The SLR Exemption Debate (42:59) Crypto, Bitcoin Strength, & Michael Saylor's Influence (48:57) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  1:02:45
• The Credit Cycle Is Just Getting Started | Andreas Steno Larsen

  In this episode, Andreas Steno Larsen joins the show to discuss the outlook for liquidity, the uptick in the manufacturing and credit cycle, and expectations around inflation. We also delve into Powell’s QE comments, idiosyncratic drivers of gold, and much more. Enjoy! Follow Andreas Steno Larsen: https://x.com/AndreasSteno Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Current Macro Backdrop and Market Sentiment (01:48) Liquidity Backdrop and Federal Reserve Policies (04:33) Private Sector Liquidity and Credit Creation (10:21) Treasury General Account and Debt Ceiling (17:30) Skale Ad (17:54) Future Liquidity Measures and Market Implications (21:06) Private Credit and Economic Cycle (26:55) Meta's Client Base and Market Power (27:44) Russell Index and Wage Growth Insights (29:42) Inflation and CPI Analysis (33:17) Skale Ad (33:46) Global Tariff Impacts and Dollar Outlook (36:26) European Market Performance (42:05) Gold Market Dynamics (48:22) Bond Yields and Truflation Measure (51:19) Learn More About Andreas and his Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  51:55
• Can Trump, Bessent, & DOGE Drive Long Bond Yields Lower? | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss the possibility of the market discounting Trump, Bessent, & DOGE success, the market implications of the Treasury QRA, and whether the manufacturing uptick is tariff front-running or the beginning of a new boom. We also delve into the state of the crypto market, MicroStrategy’s earnings, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19hLvwH8eVffhQ5-C97EM1pNqfxXRwYWz/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:02) Upcoming DAS 2025 (03:05) Tariff Delays (04:41) Bitcoin and Crypto (10:54) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (12:01) Liquidity Outlook and Dollar Strength (17:02) Market Discounting Trump, Bessent, & DOGE (20:32) Treasury Issuance and Policy Changes (28:06) Growth & Liquidity (29:02) Bond Yields and Growth Expectations (30:51) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (32:06) Construction and Manufacturing (33:57) Government vs. Private Sector (36:14) Stock Market and Investment Sentiment (40:44) MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Investments (43:49) Evaluating Government's Role in Investments (47:54) Upcoming Jobs Report __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  51:14

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