Felix Prehn's Economics Podcast

We lay out why a Fed rate hike during an oil shock can squeeze the economy without fixing the real cause of inflation. We connect the dots between supply-side inflation, government debt refinancing, and why central banks are quietly buying gold while cash holders fall into an inflation trap. 

• why oil-driven inflation behaves differently than demand-driven inflation 
• how higher diesel and fertilizer costs flow into food prices and the wider economy 
• what stagflation means and why the 1970s still matters 
• why rate hikes can punish borrowers while prices stay high 
• what the long-term charts say about the dollar, home prices, and gold 
• how refinancing trillions in Treasuries constrains how “tough” the Fed can be 
• why we call the quarter-point hike theater when debt costs are rising 
• what happens if bond buyers disappear and the Fed has to step in 
• why central banks accumulating gold is a signal worth watching 
• how the cash trap quietly erodes savings and retirement plans 
• why we avoid panic selling and focus on knowing what you actually own 

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A sulfuric acid export ban sounds boring until we trace how it can choke fertilizer supply, reduce food output and collide with $100 plus oil to drive a sharp inflation shock. We connect that real-world squeeze to dollar weaponization, hedge fund leverage in Treasuries and why professional money is positioning around gold and volatility. 
• Russia and China export cuts as a fertilizer supply trigger 
• Why sulfur and the Strait of Hormuz matter beyond oil 
• The double whammy of energy inflation plus food inflation 
• How governments respond when food prices spark unrest 
• Dollar weaponization and why countries move toward gold 
• Hedge funds’ $2.2 trillion Treasury exposure and leverage risk 
• How forced bond selling can push up rates and hit the economy 
• Why cash loses purchasing power in long inflation cycles 
• Practical framing for building a personal 90 day plan 

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👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

We connect a worrying divergence between falling productivity and falling consumer confidence to the biggest AI spending boom on record, and we explain why that threatens the stock market’s most crowded trades. We also lay out why central banks are buying gold in size, how a gold-linked BRICS settlement “unit” could shift global money flows, and what a 1940s-style debt playbook would mean for everyday purchasing power. 
• Bank of America’s productivity and confidence chart breaking down together 
• $1.5 trillion spent on AI with little economy-wide productivity gain 
• AI leaders calling to slow development and what that implies for timelines 
• S&P 500 concentration risk with gains driven by a small set of AI stocks 
• Central banks buying record gold despite a pullback and rate headlines 
• BRICS “unit” as a settlement system backed partly by gold 
• Federal Reserve debt buying compared with the 1940s and the inflation risk 
• Three mistakes to avoid: calling the gold pullback “the end”, assuming index funds equal diversification, waiting for headlines.

Support the show
👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Support the show
👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Support the show
👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks