Powered by RND
PodcastsBusinessThe Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

Dominic Frisby
The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more
Latest episode

Available Episodes

5 of 580
  • Sell the Cutlery: Why This Silver Bull Market Won't Last Forever
    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI found myself at a very VIP event last night at the home of a well-known politician. There was a heck of lot of money, age and experience in the room. I felt like I’d gone back in time to the City of the 1980s.I got talking to an old boy who, it turned out, had made his money in mining. He had worked at one point for the Hunt Brothers (who famously tried to corner the silver market in 1980). He had speculated in Australian’s Poseidon bubble (1969-70), one of the mothers of all speculative mining frenzies. He recalled a stock he had bought at 10c, offloading his final shares at A$120, only to watch it go to A$280. (50 years on, he was still cross with himself for selling too soon, even though it soon went all the way back to 10c).“Are we in a secular bull market for mining stocks now?” I asked him. He didn’t seem to think we are.“What about gold and silver?” “Silver’s at $53,” he smiled.“$58,” I corrected him.“$58!” he said. “Gosh. I must go home and sell the cutlery.”There was a photograph in a large silver frame on the sideboard. We discussed the merits of selling that.I tell this story for a reason. Bull markets like this one in silver do not come along very often. The old boy know that - and he knew what to do. Because silver bull markets don’t last forever.And when they end, they really end. You can make informed and educated guesses where the top will be. Getting out at the absolute top can be done but it requires so much good fortune that it is near impossible.In the Poseidon bubble, the old boy was selling on the way up, only to see his stock double and more again after he’d unloaded his final tranche. He made money. A lot of money. He didn’t make as much as he could have made - and is still, more than fifty years on, cross with himself.Yet he also didn’t lose anything when the bubble popped.Is that not more important?Yet, bizarre thing the human mind is, we seem to get more cross with ourselves for selling too early than we do for overstaying our welcome and riding the collapse all the way down.If you live in the Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.That amazing cup and handleSilver has now broken out of that incredible cup-and-handle formation that has been building since the 1970s. We have spoken about it before. The standard view is that, in a cup-and-handle pattern, the distance from the rim to the bottom of the cup will be your target to the upside. In this case, $3.50 was the low in the early 1990s. The distance from $50 to $3.50 is $46.50, giving us a target of $96 or thereabouts.$96.50 then. It could get there. I don’t say it will, but it could.You can argue that based on logarithmic charts and percentage falls, the targets should be even higher. I’ve read some as high as $700/oz. It’s possible. $50 in 1980 was a similarly elevated figure.
    --------  
    4:01
  • When Your Gold Heist Becomes Someone Else's Gold Heist
    Good Sunday to you,A bit of admin before we come to today’s thought piece.First, in case you missed it, here is this week’s commentary, mostly ranting about the budget, the UK’s inept leadership and what actions you, as an investor, should take:And this week I also appeared on comedian Geoff Norcott’s podcast, What Most People Think. Here are the links to the show on Apple and Spotify, if of interest.But for your thought piece today, we have another great little World War Two gold story which didn’t make the cut. The farcical journey of Albanian and Italian gold (NB: a tonne of gold is about a medium-sized suitcase full).As the Nazis took both Austria and Czechoslovakia with ease, Italian Prime Minister Benito Mussolini grew anxious to flex his own muscles.Albania would be his target. Geographically, culturally and historically, it made sense: Albania had been part of the Roman Empire even before northern Italy.In April 1939, Italy invaded with a force that contained 400 planes, 300 small tanks, 12 warships, and 22,000 men. But some untrained Albanian locals with the help of a few soldiers managed to drive them back into the sea. Such was 20th century Italian warfare.The Italians made it on the second attempt, however, and the capital, Tirana, fell.The Albanian King Zog gave an impassioned speech on the radio, urging resistance, but nobody heard it because Albania at the time had fewer than 2,000 radios, and the Italians soon managed to jam the airwaves anyway. Shortly after giving the speech, like the true patriot he was, he fled the country, taking enough gold with him to lead a long life of luxury in exile, eventually ending up in Egypt as a guest of King Farouk, to whom he had to pay $20 million for refuge.Albania's founders believed in gold, and their currency, the lek, was based on it. Inflation, as a result, had been nonexistent. The central bank was established in the summer of 1925, and it had worked hard to build up its gold holdings. At home, it had encouraged citizens to swap their jewellery for paper money. That private gold was then added to the nation's gold holdings. Whenever possible, the country increased its gold holdings in London.But by the time of the invasion in 1939, most of Albania's 2.3 tonnes was in Italy anyway, where it had been sent for safekeeping. The Italians managed to confiscate quite a bit more in coins and jewellery from citizens.We fast forward four years.The Italian dilemma: give their gold to the Nazis or the Allies? In 1943, Allied forces moved north from Africa into Sicily and then Italy: the invasion of the soft underbelly of Europe had begun.Hectic days followed the ousting of Mussolini in July. The Italian Fascists were still nominally in charge. They declared Rome an open city in the hope of avoiding Allied air attacks. But by September 1943, the Nazis had control of the capital and central Italy, and they wanted Italy's gold moved to Berlin, while they still had control of the area.They began confiscating the gold of Italian citizens in Rome, especially Italian Jews. The amounts demanded were unrealistic, but Roman Jews reached into their family treasures, their synagogues and institutions to turn in what they had. The Pope, Pius XII, heard about the demands and authorised Catholic churches to lend Jews gold so they could reach the quota.But the big prize was in the Italian Central Bank, and several Nazi organisations had their eyes on it: Himmler's SS, Göring's Four Year Plan, von Ribbentrop's Foreign Office, and Funk's Reichsbank. Even the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), which was worried about its investments in Italy, started making demands that Italy send it gold. Initially, the governor of the Italian bank, Vincenzo Azzolini, made out that he was offended by the idea, but he soon realised the BIS was a better option than Berlin, whichever Nazi department received it.The Italians did not know what to do. On the one hand, they did not want the Nazis to have their gold, but nor did they want the invading Allies to have it either. They thought of sending it to Sardinia, they thought of sending it to the Swiss border. They sent small amounts of gold to branch offices around Italy, but the Bologna gold went missing, as did much of the Milan gold - now supposedly in Turin, but actually hidden in a well. They even sent some to colonial outposts in Benghazi, Rhodes and Addis Ababa.The Albanian gold Italy had stolen was still sitting in the Italian bank's vault, so, under pressure from the Nazis, they sent that up to the Reichsbank in Berlin, while they tried to come up with a solution.The following day, Niccolò Introna, the Italian bank's deputy general manager, had his plan: to build a false wall in the bank's underground vaults. He would then backdate documents to show the gold had been moved to Potenza, a town in the Italian south that was about to fall into Allied hands, but hide the gold behind the wall.Bank governor Azzolini approved the plan, but then ruled that only half the gold should be hidden. The next day the wall was built. The day after that, the official order to ship the gold to Berlin came in from the German ambassador. If the bank did not agree, the Germans would simply seize it. At this point, Azzolini learned that the Germans had seized government records, from which they would know the size and location of the country's gold. Azzolini lost his nerve and had the wall torn down.The next day, the German military unit arrived at the bank with orders to move the gold north by air. Azzolini stalled them, saying it would be safer by train. The Germans sent 5 tonnes by air, the rest - 119 tonnes - was sent by train to Milan. From there, it was shipped to Fortezza, Bolzano, close to the border with Germany and under their control, where it stayed for several months. The now-ousted Mussolini even signed his approval that it be sent there.The following spring, Azzolini, who above all wanted to stop the gold going to Berlin, struck a deal with Swiss and German representatives that would see 26 tonnes sent to Switzerland, some to the BIS and some to the Swiss National Bank.Göring, however, insisted he needed money and suggested giving Italy Reichsmarks for its gold. The deal was signed without the Bank of Italy knowing about it. 50 tonnes left Fortezza, which included 8 tonnes Italy had stolen from Yugoslavia earlier in the war in "restitution" (that’s another story). The delivery arrived in Berlin a tonne light. As almost always by this point in the war, someone had their hands in the till.The process of shipping the next batch of Italian gold - some 22 tonnes - went on for months, as some (but not all) Italian officials tried to stall. But eventually, that too was dispatched. That too arrived in Berlin a tonne light.When American forces eventually liberated Fortezza, they found 25 tonnes. It was handed over to the Bank of Italy.What a mess.Stories like this fill the pages of The Secret History of Gold (although this one didn’t actually make the cut).The Secret History of Gold is available at Amazon, Waterstones and all good bookshops. I hear the audiobook, read by me, is excellent. And it would make a wonderful Christmas present! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe
    --------  
    8:41
  • Further Steps on the Road to Serfdom
    There will be no growth in the UK.Chancellor Reeves’ budget was designed to placate left-wing back benchers, who want greater spending, and the bond markets. In that, it has succeeded. For now.The ever-shrinking part of the country that actually builds wealth (and remember there are only 3 ways to build real wealth: you grow stuff, you mine stuff or you make stuff. Everything else is just pushing it about) is being further taxed to pay for it all. There are now extra taxes on property, dividends and savings, while fiscal drag means more people will pay higher rates of income tax (closing in on 25% of workers by 2030, apparently), further diminishing their chances of improving their lot. Never mind the currency debasement of the money they are being paid in.Stealth taxes, such as fiscal drag, get my goat because they are so disingenuous. But perhaps of greater concern are doors which have been opened to new sources of taxation. The extra levy on high value properties, for example, has been set at £2,500 per year for properties in the £2-£5 million bracket, and £7,500 for properties above.A £2 million house in London is not some decadent billionaire plaything: it is often a mere terraced house built 150 years ago for an ordinary working man and his family.My friend, who is uber successful and very left wing, has an expensive house in Hampstead. She was actually happy about this tax, because she thought it was fair - and because she thought she was going to get hammered for higher taxes elsewhere. What she doesn’t realise is that this is just the beginning. The door is now open to further property taxes and the only way is up.What’s more, as currency gets debased, fiscal drag means more and more properties will fall into this category.Income Tax began as a tax only on higher earners. Within a few decades, ordinary workers were hit. Now they’re paying higher rates. These new property taxes will go the same way.Never mind that you bought the property with taxed income, and then paid stamp duty. It’s endless.Between that, landlord taxes, extra tenant protection, Section 24 and the plethora of petty regulation, the age of the small landlord in Britain is now over. Renting, like so many other parts of the economy, will become the domain of larger corporations. And we will all lose because of it.It also means that real estate is over as an investment. All it really was was a shield against currency debasement, but those days are now behind us.Similarly, the door is now open for local authorities to charge a visitor levy. This tourist tax will start small and then rise, like every other tax in history. We already have the tax on moving that is stamp duty, now we have this. If you tax movement, people will move less. If you have no movement, you have no growth. It really isn’t that difficult.They do not seem to understand that capital flows to where it is welcome. If you tax it, it will not come; it will go. What is the golden rule of the magnum opus? More taxes or higher rates do not equal greater revenue. But the reverse.We are now, as you know, taxed at the highest rate since the Second World War. What is the money going on? You don’t need me to tell you how much is being spaffed. Waste, fraud, incompetence, misallocation. Government is the most inefficient means of spending money there is. As if to prove my point, they couldn’t even make the announcement about how they’re going to spend your money competently. They’ve spent the last few months leaking stuff. Leaking is a tool of government, so when it backfires, at least we have some karma. Meanwhile, the source of the leak, the OBR, rarely if ever gets a prediction right. How much is being drained from the productive to fund that thing? How many bad choices are made as a result of its utterances?The state is already disproportionately large and it is only going to get bigger Where do the salaries of those who work for the state come from? The ever-decreasing sector of the economy that actually builds wealth. Even if you are providing some essential state service and are being well paid to do it, you are still a dependent, because it is the shrinking part of the economy that actually builds wealth that is the ultimate source of your wages.Millionaires and billionaires, assuming they haven’t made their wealth through crony capitalism or government subsidy, are not the problem - they are the solution. We want to attract them here, not frighten them away. They create employment. Our lives are better for likes of Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk, not worse. The same goes for investment, profit, saving, trade, growth. We want to attract them not deter them.The opposite applies to deficit spending, money printing, currency debasement, suppressed interest rates, high taxes, tax traps, welfare, dependency, regulation and bureaucracy. You want to deter them not attract them. Yet I am afraid all we are doing is the latter.If you pay people to be unproductive, you will get more unproductive people. If you tax people who are productive, you will get fewer productive people. What is so hard to understand?We can rant and rave. It won’t do any good. This is the path we are on. We are following the template of South Africa. (It was actually me that coined the term “the South Africanisation of everything”, something I am quite proud of). We keep thinking that things can’t get any worse. But they can and will. It is gradual and incremental. We are frogs being boiled while suffering water torture. The country is going to get even more socialist. All you can do is look after yourself and your family.If you are young and reading this, the best thing you can do is leave, as so many are already doing. It is just so hard to build a future for yourself when you are so heavily taxed, and then the money you are paid in is being debased. Leave, travel the world, have adventures, learn, become a Sovereign Individual. The world is a big place. There are better futures to be had elsewhere.It’s all happening just as I said it would in Daylight Robbery, by the way, even the mileage taxMany of us, however, because of our circumstances, do not have the option to leave.So what to do?Real estate, as already mentioned, is now dead as an investment. It’s too easy a target for taxes. UK companies are going to find life that much harder - the rising minimum wage will reduce employment (and thus increase the burden of dependents). It’s also going to mean higher costs for you as this tweet demonstratesIf companies do well, they will face further taxes. Dividend taxes are a deterrent too. We are not quite at the point where UK companies are un-investible (in fact there is a wall of US capital that wants to buy the UK), but the foundations are not exactly enticing.The one compensation for saving in fiat was interest, but taxes here are going to go up too. So cash is crapAs we have long argued on these pages, you need to park capital where governments can’t touch it, tax it or debase it. The best forms of non-government money are gold, if you want something physical, and bitcoin, if you prefer something digital.We are not yet at the point where they try to tax or confiscate your gold and bitcoin, but we are on the trajectory I’m sorry to say.All those horrible bitcoiners crowing about how much money they’ve made - do you honestly think taxing or confiscation of bitcoin won’t meet with public approval? You’re just another one of those loathsome rich people creating inequality.It’s coming, but we are not there yet.Bitcoin is in one of its down seasons. But it is still the best performing asset class of the last 15 years. And if you don’t like it, fine, own gold instead. There is plenty more gas in that particular tank.Reeves may have staved off a tantrum in the gilt markets, and a resulting fall in the pound, but she has created an even bigger problem for her successors.We need fewer taxes, lower taxes and simpler taxes. It all starts there. Reeves has chosen a path in the opposite direction, the road more travelled. And it takes us further along the road to serfdom. If you live in the Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Sunday’s thought piece has become the most viewed piece in this Substack’s history. Take a look, in case you missed it:Until next time,Dominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe
    --------  
    10:26
  • The 10 Largest Slaving Civilisations in History
    The Romans enslaved 160 million people. The Mughals 112 million. The Mali Empire 57 million. Your Sunday deep dive into the data they don’t teach in schools.We have crunched the numbers across 5,000 years of human civilisation, and ranked the results. What we found will surprise you - and might just change how you think about the past.Substack subscribers see this first, before it goes to X, Facebook, Insta and YouTube next week.Know others who should see this?If of interest, the research for this video can be found here.My thanks go to Goat, for making the video, and to Andy at Red Creative for the studio.If you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Moving onto other matters, ICYMI here is this week’s commentaryMeanwhile, have you read it yet? “Possibly the best-time book ever,” says Merryn Somerset Webb. The Secret History of Gold - Money, Myth, Politics and Power is available at all good bookstores. Finally, I appeared on the Shepheard Walwyn Podcast, interviewed by Jonathan Brown, this week. Here it is - talking gold.Until next time,Dominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe
    --------  
    8:38
  • Why I'm Feeling Bearish (And What I'm Doing About It)
    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI don’t mean to get all bearish on you.Bearish copy - it’s all going down, it’s going to crash - gets more eyeballs than “everything’s fine”. Bearish commentators usually have bigger followings. Bad news sells.But bears are usually wrong. They’ve predicted 13 of the last two corrections.The fact is, as human beings progress and economies grow, markets tend to rise. This is doubly so when the underlying unit of account - the pound, the euro, the dollar - is being systematically debased. (Which makes the underperformance of the FTSE these last 25 years even more incredible by the way). Stock markets, especially in the US, have become places to park capital, where you can reduce erosion by inflation.So that’s my disclaimer out of the way.I’m feeling bearishWe’ll start with bitcoin. It’s a leading indicator for the Nasdaq and tech. It’s sold off - from $125,000 in early October to $90,000 a coin on Monday. Remember: I targeted $90,000 a coin a few weeks back.The crypto summer was muted, so we can expect this crypto winter to be similarly muted - no 90% corrections in other words. But we are almost 30% down already.Strip out the noise and HODL is my advice. That’s what I’m doing. There has been no better investment strategy over the last 15 years and I’m sticking with it. But a crypto winter is upon us, it seems. Let’s hope it’s a mild one.Here’s the chart. Look at the 50 day moving average in red. This is the third time in since 2024 that we have been in this situation.One correction lasted most of 2024 - well, March to October - the other took up the first five months of this year. They passed.Also worth noting is how each correction seems to have three spikes down - three drives to the bottom. This time around we have only had one, so maybe a couple more to go. That is not a prediction by the way: just an observation.The corrections in gold and silver have been more muted. But I have to say the silver chart concerns me. Double top or what?I thought the October correction would go deeper than it did, but it held up at the 50 day moving average (red line). That’s a sign of strength. This rebound rally, dead cat bounce - whatever you want to call it - has taken us right back to the old highs, while gold and the S&P500 both made lower highs. That is also a sign of relative strength.But the second high was not confirmed by the silver miners, that is not good. And now we have a double top on our hands, until we don’t.I would think we have one more leg down to get through plus some sideways consolidation to digest the gains of earlier this year. Here is gold, FYI, which has conspicuously made a lower high. This one might want to go into the $3 thousands for a bit.The stock market has this ridiculous Nvidia situation to get through. $4.4 trillion market cap - and that’s after the recent pullback. 40 stocks account for something like 60% of the market cap of the five hundred stocks in the S&P. It needs to rebalance, otherwise it’s an index of 40 stocks with 460 hangers-on. Corrections are how these things happen.So I am feeling über cautious. There is nothing wrong with having cash in times like this - it means you can buy stuff.On the other hand, the year end rally is approaching - so maybe we should just stay long. As with bitcoin, the way to play the stock market since 2009 when the S&P500 reached 666 - it is ten times that today! - has been simply to hold on through. With so many conflicting messages, it’s hard to know what to do. Dolce Far Niente … Italian for HODL.With all that in mind, I want to just skim through some of my speculative positions and give you my latest opinion on them. we are going to look at Metals Exploration (MTL.L), Comstock (LODE.NYSE), Lightbridge (LTBR), Minera Alamos (MAI.V) and more. Time to sell? Time to buy more?Let’s see. A review of the speculative portfolioWe’ll start with Metals Exploration (MTL.L), my largest position.
    --------  
    4:55

More Business podcasts

About The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

Readings of brilliant articles from the Flying Frisby. Occasional super-fascinating interviews. Market commentary, investment ideas, alternative health, some social commentary and more, all with a massive libertarian bias. www.theflyingfrisby.com
Podcast website

Listen to The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more, The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett and many other podcasts from around the world with the radio.net app

Get the free radio.net app

  • Stations and podcasts to bookmark
  • Stream via Wi-Fi or Bluetooth
  • Supports Carplay & Android Auto
  • Many other app features

The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more: Podcasts in Family

Social
v8.0.7 | © 2007-2025 radio.de GmbH
Generated: 12/7/2025 - 6:54:51 PM