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The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

Dominic Frisby
The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more
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  • Bitcoin's Correction: Time to Panic or Time to HODL?
    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI’ve been writing so much about gold and silver lately, I need to cover something else.But my quick take: as seemed likely, gold and silver have gone into one of their corrective phases. This is likely to last several months, in the humble opinion of this writer. There’ll be false dawns, which catch everyone out, and false deaths too, with the overall trend being sideways.In the event of a broader stock market correction - which is long overdue given the scale of this rally since the Tariff Tantrum™ in the spring - gold and, especially, silver will sell off along with everything else. That doesn’t mean gold isn’t a safe haven. It just means there is a lot of hot money in gold, which quickly gets liquidated in a sell-off.But, yes, this incredible rally we have seen in the S&P500 since the Tariff Tantrum™ is looking exhausted and seems to be rolling over.Bitcoin is taking a hit too - although not as big a hit as the broader crypto space - and bitcoin is what I want to look at today.Here is one crypto trader’s desk, as pictured on Twitter during Tuesday’s sell-off.That’s what happens when you use too much leverage.What do they say about taking the emotion out of trading?Bitcoin - what gives?So many things have happened this year which have blown winds in bitcoin’s favour* A newly elected US administration which very pro crypto* A deliberately weaker dollar and the debasement trade* The launch of the bitcoin ETFs in the US increasing access to much larger flows of capital* Strength in tech stocks generally* A risk-on appetite* The halving cycleAnd moreYet bitcoin feels like it hasn’t quite delivered. A new high of ‘only’ $125,000.The latest narrative doing the rounds is this idea that the launch of the bitcoin ETFs is like bitcoin’s IPO. Just as when a big tech stock IPOs, a lot of early seed money takes the opportunity to exit, so are many early bitcoin investors - so-called OGs - now moving on. That would explain the many coins that have been moved from previously dormant wallets to exchanges over the last six months.Maybe.What can I say?You can either decide that bitcoin’s time is done. It’s game over. Move on.Or you can treat this like another of the numerous shake-outs that have taken bitcoin in the 16 years since its inception. The story was getting a bit tired. It needs a shake-out to ruffle a few feathers and purge.The moral of every previous correction can be summed up in 4 letters: HODL.It looks like we may have got a bit of a crypto winter to get through. If the winter reflects the previous summer, then this one shouldn’t be too bad. But consolidation phases can be frustrating, so the secret is to be quite zen about the whole thing and keep your eye on the bigger picture.Bitcoin bear markets can be painful, but the beauty of them is that, unlike mining bear markets which can go on for a decade or more, they tend to be short lived.Treat bear markets as opportunities. They’re a good time to build positions, build businesses and more. Go and watch some Michael Saylor videos and re-indoctrinate yourself.But on no account lose your position. Bull markets come along when you least expect them.Everything is looking a bit red at the moment - gold, silver, the S&P500, bitcoin. It might be the end of this cycle. but it’s not the end of the world.I don’t know when or where this bitcoin correction ends. My guess is around $90,000 but that’s nothing more than a guess. Perhaps we revisit $75,000 - which is the level we hit during the Tariff Tantrum™ earlier this year.But it’s just as possible that dip below $100k on Tuesday was a fake-out, and the bear market is already done.I thought this graphic was interesting.There is plenty more room for future buying as governments and corporations try to increase their positions.By the way I get that some readers like bitcoin and others don’t. That’s fine. Each to their own. However, if you are in the latter camp, you do not need to email me and tell me bitcoin is not real money/quantum computing is going to destroy it/it is an invention of the deep state/ it is a scam. Please also feel no need to regurgitate Peter Schiff tweets either. (I’m fairly sure he is paid to slag bitcoin off by the way).Turning now to the clusterfook that is the UKBuying bitcoin ETFs in the UK - t he hows, whats and whysIt’s semantics, but you can’t actually buy ETFs in the UK you have to buy ETNs. I’m not even going to bother trying to explain it. It’s regulatory bollocks and not worth wasting time or brain power over.October 8th, the date when the FCA decided UK citizens are allowed to buy bitcoin ETNs is now behind us, but the farce is not.I first found out about bitcoin in December 2010 when it was 22c. I was sent my first coins soon after. I wrote the first book on bitcoin from a recognised publisher in 2014. Yet this morning I just attempted to complete the FCA’s form to get me approved to buy a bitcoin ETN - so that I understand the risks - and I failed it. The “correct” answer to their questions is actually the wrong answer. Absolute farce of an organisation and accountable to no one, so it will continue.In the US, meanwhile, JP Morgan is in the process of enabling bitcoin to be used as mortgage collateral.It’s like being in Spain in 1492, the ship is setting sail to the New World and somebody from the FCA is standing on the gangplank with a clipboard stopping UK citizens from getting onboard.Amongst the plethora of moronic barriers which the FCA has laid down is that bitcoin carries the same risk as any other cryptocurrency - including the latest meme, scam or shitcoin. Bitcoin is not fartcoin, and categorising the two together reveals the scary depths of FCA ignorance.Meanwhile, from next year you won’t be able to buy bitcoin ETNs in your ISA, you will have to get a special ISA. They are trying to kill us with bureaucracy, I’m convinced of it.Which broker and which ETN?In terms of enabling their customers to invest, the UK brokers have ranged from excellent - Interactive Investor, which went live on day 1, as boss Richard Wilson proudly tells me - to totally useless - Hargreaves Lansdown and AJ Bellend.Hargreaves Lansdown, apparently trying to give the FCA a run for its brainless money, even put out the following statement.“Bitcoin is not an asset class, and we do not think cryptocurrency has characteristics that mean it should be included in portfolios for growth or income and shouldn’t be relied upon to help clients meet their financial goals … Unlike other alternative asset classes, it has no intrinsic value.”Talk about retarded.If you want to be able to invest in these things via your SIPP or ISA, move your account to Interactive Investor is my advice. Use this affiliate link and you get a year for free.I should stress buying bitcoin via a broker negates many of bitcoin’s uses. Yes, you get the store-of-value benefits, but you can’t send and receive it; you can’t use it to make payments or donations; you don’t have sovereignty - the fund manager does - and so there is considerable counter-party risk - the coins could be confiscated, the fund could go bust etc. You don’t have anonymity either.Still it’s better than no exposure at all.But which ETN should you go for? And what about the treasury companies? And, what indeed about Semler Scientific (SMLR)?
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  • Fifty tourists, one phone box and what Britain keeps throwing away
    Good Sunday to you,I am headed to Birmingham and Huddersfield week after next. If you are in either neck of the woods, come and see the show.Don’t it always seem to go That you don’t know what you’ve got ‘til it’s goneJoni MitchellBack in the 1980s I remember the newly privatised British Telecom, in its wisdom, decided to get rid of Britain’s red telephone boxes and replace them with things made of glass or was it perspex? The originals were designed, I’ve since read, by one Giles Gilbert Scott, who got the gig as a result of a design competition. (I’ve since learned he also designed Battersea Power Station, so he was quality).British Telecom wanted a rebranding, so somebody at HQ decided to waste lord-knows-how-much money getting rid of however many phone boxes there were around the country - they’re cast iron so this was not an easy job, nor a cheap one - and replace them with something better, which inevitably turned out to be worse.Here’s the iconic before:Here’s what they replaced them with:I barely remember these. You probably don’t either. Because they were soon got rid of and replaced with these. Why did they bother?The glass replacements are just so bland you cannot not even describe them as ugly. They are just characterless nothings. Why people in corporations feel this need to glassify everything - it’s happened to buildings as well, of course - is beyond me. I guess they think it’s “dynamic”. (Indeed, they’ve done something similar to language).BT justified the rebranding by saying existing phone boxes got vandalised: prostitutes and mini cab drivers left their calling cards in them, people pissed in them. All of this is true, but there were other ways of dealing with these issues. (It’s not unlike the many invented problems being cited today to justify hoisting digital ID on us). The bottom line is that the powers that be wanted a rebrand. Good for their egos, I guess. And thanks to the privatisation they now had bucket loads of capital to spend on it.Whatever. They spent a shedload and made it worse. So there I was walking along Parliament Square the other day and what did I see but a this huge queue of tourists lining up to have their photo taken by a phone box. Not one of the glass ones obviously. And I mean huge queue. See for yourself.I would say there are 40 or more people in that queue. If they each take 45 seconds for their photo, that’s a good 30-minute wait.The rest of the world loves the English for who we are. For our history, our culture, our style, our character, our charm, our order, our beauty. That’s why so many tourists flock here. Why are we incapable of appreciating ourselves and loving what we have created? - instead choosing to self-hate and apologise for what we have done.The rest of the world wants the England of red phone boxes, afternoon tea, good manners and Downton Abbey. They don’t want England for its diversity (diversity is not London’s greatest strength, despite what they mayor may tell you - London’s greatest strength is that it is the capital of England, not Diversityland), nor for its gender-neutral toilets, glass fronted buildings, low trust communities or its street crime. They want England for the English.So the point of today’s missive.A few years ago somebody got the no-doubt-very-well-paid gig erecting cycle sheds around the capital. Here was an opportunity to design something iconic, something which added to London - like the old red buses, black taxis, post boxes and, yes, the phone boxes. Things that characterise London, and thus things that people love London for. Here’s what we got. They even put a picture of a bicycle on the side, just in case you’re totally moronic.Talk about a wasted opportunity.They look like budget Anderson shelters.And what’s the shelf life of one of those. Ten years, maybe?Can you see tourists seventy or eighty years from now queuing up for half an hour to get their photo taken next to one?Oh well.If you enjoyed reading this, please share it far and wide.Lots of things to share with you this week* Here ICYMI is this week’s commentary:* Here is a piece from my comedy Substack about Prunella Scales, who died on Monday. It also contains an episode of a 1975 sitcom you’ve probably never heard of but in which she was absolutely brilliant. I urge you to watch it - you will thank me.* I made an appearance on Jeremy McKeown’s new podcast, along with Tim Price, to talk gold.If you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.* And, finally, on Friday morning at 07.34 GMT, I became a grandad. Please welcome Cecilia (name not yet confirmed) to the group.As we are headed into Christmas present season, if you are unable to follow the tradition of the Wise Men and gift actual gold, how about a book about gold instead?I deal for anyone at home or at work. The Secret History of Gold - Money, Myth, Politics and Power is available at all good bookstoresUntil next time,Dominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe
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  • How Do We Know When It's The Top?
    You probably saw my post from ten days ago in which I argued that the vast numbers of people queuing up outside bullion stores in Singapore and Sydney to buy gold and silver were not a good sign.As it turns out, they were not. Gold and silver have put in a top - an interim, mid-cycle top, in my view, not the top - and we can now expect many months of sideways, shake-out, frustrating consolidation to generally piss everyone off. It’s important, in such times, to keep your eye on the bigger picture, which in this case is the inevitable debasement of currency, so as not to lose your position.You’ll know, I’m sure, the story of Joe Kennedy’s shoe shine boy. In 1929, so the story goes, the boy who was polishing the celebrated investor’s shoes started giving him stock tips. If the shoe shine boy has bought in, thought Joe Kennedy Snr, who else is left to buy? That persuaded him that the top was close and he famously sold just before the crash.That story is often cited to illustrate the idea that retail investors are sheep. They’re stupid. You should do the opposite to what retail is doing and so on.I don’t think it’s anything like that simple.There are some retail investors who are stupid. There are plenty who are rookies and naive. But there are plenty who are thoughtful, wise and, as a result, very good investors. By the same token, I have met many fund managers, analysts and more from respected institutions who are thick as pigshite. (I have met plenty of geniuses too). Give me the choice between some blogger and an institutional research report, you’ll often get far more insight from the former. I frequently read bulletin boards, or chats on Twitter, as part of my research into a company.It wasn’t institutions who got into bitcoin early, it was retail. Even now many institutions shun it, particularly in bureaucratic banana republics such as the UK. Who were the smart guys? The people that bought earliest. Retail.Obviously, if you start getting investment tips from a shoe shine boy/taxi driver/barber (my Albanian barber is forever shilling me shitcoins) or your nan’s carer’s mate, that is usually a bad sign, but it doesn’t mean that ordinary folk are stupid.With the above in mind, I stumbled across this video from another legend of American investing, Jim Simons. At the time of his death in 2024, the hedge fund manager’s net worth was north of $30 billion, making him the 55th-richest person in the world.He describes January 21, 1980, when, at the afternoon fix, gold went to $850 /oz - a blow-off top that would not be seen again for almost 30 years.I write about that 1980 blow-off top, by the way, and how it was “illusory” in the Secret History of Gold (BTW the audiobook is getting barnstorming reviews).The point I draw from the Simons talk is that retail was selling gold. People were not buying, they were selling.In other words, retail nailed the top of the market. My mum remembers the gold fever - and indeed the silver fever (silver spiked to $50 three days earlier on January 18). Even today, 45 years on, the silver price is lower than it was then - that’s how insane that spike was.She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves. We are not there yet.Even towards the end of the last bull market which peaked in 2011, everywhere you went, there were signs saying, “We buy any gold”. Retail was selling.Comedian Gary Delaney and I even wrote a sketch in which a wizard (Gandalf) pulls a ring from the fire, reads the inscription, hands it to a hobbit (Frodo), who nods thoughtfully and says something along the lines of, “I understand what I must do.” We then cut to him going into a shop with a sign outside that says, “We buy any gold.”I still think that sketch is funny, but of course TV didn’t want it. Wrong age, wrong sex, wrong colour - never mind wrong views.If you enjoyed today’s article, please tell a friend..Until next time,DominicIf you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe
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    9:51
  • Six Goals and Nine Dreams
    Good Sunday to you,Before we go to today’s piece, let me flag this week’s commentary - on the action in the gold and silver markets, in case you missed it. A blip or the start of something more significant?So to the osteopath who isn’t an osteopathI first met Michelle Davies at a James Delingpole event. She was buying one of my books and wanted to pay in bitcoin, which got her an immediate gold star. She mentioned quite matter-of-factly that she was an osteopath who had been struck off and, “would I like some treatment?”.As a man with many ailments accumulated over the decades, a large portion of which I have given up trying to heal, I couldn’t see much downside to the offer. She might even be able to cure one of the incurables. “Why not?”, I thought.A few days later, in a studio near Worcester, she placed her hands behind my head, went still for a moment, announced that my energy channels were “terrible - blocked, nought out of ten,” manipulated my neck and head for a bit, muttered to herself, sighed, told me off for swearing, got me to speak into a microphone, and then began “sending me frequencies.” I left feeling oddly lighter.So I went back.“I’m trying to have a lucid dream,” I told her. “But I’m not making much progress.”I explained the difference between a vivid dream, which is what it says on the tin, and a lucid dream, which is a dream in which you know you are having a dream, while you have the dream. Keener readers will remember to “get better at lucid dreaming” was one of my ambitions for 2025.“Oh,” she said. “I might be able to help with that.” And she went to work on my channels again.That night, I had nine dreams. Nine. Normally I’d be lucky to remember one or two. None were fully lucid, but still - progress.I went back again. “Can you help me with my ankle?” I’ve got flat feet and my ankles are very stiff as a result. I’ve broken my right ankle five times.She held it, paused, and began to cry. “There’s so much pain here,” she said. “I can’t fix it completely,” she declared, “but I can make it much better”.My ankles are one of the many banes of my life. I still play football, but I am incapable of “putting my laces through it” - that is shooting with my instep. I’ve not been able to shoot properly since I was in my early 20s. It hurts so much - my foot involuntarily winces moments before I strike, so my whole game is little passes with the inside of my foot. It’s limiting. I might get one goal in a game of six-a-side, maybe two if I’m lucky. Usually I don’t score.“When are you playing next?” she asked.“Tomorrow.”“I’ll broadcast to you,” she said.The following night I scored six goals. SIX.“Have you been having shooting lessons?” one of the other players asked, both miffed and baffled.“What is your biggest goal in life? Michelle asked at another session.“To get Kisses on a Postcard made,” I said.I explained what it is. We came up with a mantra, which I recorded and she layered with one of her frequencies. I began playing it each morning while doing the gentle stretches, which she told me to do, in bed. Three weeks later, I closed the seed funding round I had up to then been struggling with - oversubscribed, no less. All coincidence, I’m sure. But Kisses on a Postcard is finally moving forward.Osteopath No MoreMichelle Davies was a local osteopath in Worcester who had been practising for 25 years. Among the many things she found she was good at treating were sinusitis, asthma, anxiety, depression, baby colic & reflux, sleep issues and infections. The patient testimonials on her website confirmed as much.However, in 2016 the General Osteopathic Council (GOsC) got in touch. In case you are not familiar, GOsC is osteopathy’s contribution to The Blob, the army of unaccountable regulators which runs, if that’s the right word, Britain, answerable to no man. (If you think the government is in charge, you’re deluded).In the great British tradition of unelected bureaucrat, GOsC has discovered the elixir of Blob: a toxic mix of arrogance, incompetence, paperwork and regulatory overreach, which will satisfactorily obstruct any attempt at progress. GOsC explained to Michelle that osteopathy can only cure 12 things, and these do not include the items which Michelle had found she could treat. Unless she removed the 75 patient testimonials, she would face a Fitness to Practise case. She did as she was told and removed the lot.“But I can and have treated these things,” she thought. “I’ve got 75 testimonials to prove it”.So, in 2021, she brought a claim against GOsC for damages, arguing that their actions had limited her professional scope and censored the public’s voice. GOsC questioned her fitness to practise, demanded a psychiatric assessment and access to her medical notes. She refused and was struck off. She could no longer call herself an osteopath. In fact, she eventually got a criminal record for, checks notes, “impersonating an osteopath”. (Read her google reviews, if you want the patients’ side of this)BTW I know nothing of GOsC and I haven’t researched their side of the story, nor do I care to. They’re regulators, so my default position is biased against, and unless they can demonstrably prove they warrant a better opinion, that will remain my position. So Michelle began marketing herself as the osteopath who was stuck off. Three years on she has a practice in Harley Street, charging several times her old rate.Note to any osteopaths reading this: get yourself struck off. It’s great for business.If you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.A Healing WeekI later discovered she also offers “healing weeks.” She comes to stay with you and your family for seven days and treats everyone daily. I thought we could all use a tune-up, and to my surprise when I proposed the idea, the Frisby household agreed: my eldest son (24), his heavily pregnant girlfriend (23), and my eldest daughter who lives nearby (22).Each of us had 60–90 minutes of treatment every day - osteopathic manipulation, cranial work, red and blue light therapy, terahertz wand, frequencies, castor oil packs, and more.My pregnant daughter-in-law was having problems with acid reflux and carpal tunnel numbness. Michelle got rid of the former in one session, the latter took a couple. My son’s hips and ankles loosened up, and he started sleeping better. My daughter’s pelvis, inflamed from a childhood incident involving a pillowcase and a staircase (news to me), finally began to settle, and she has reported improvements to her PCOS. I also sent Goat, my bassist and who makes many of my videos, for some treatment (in exchange for filming the video below). He’s had a heavy stammer all his life, After three sessions, you can actually have a normal conversation with him. Meanwhile, I have become an even more astounding human being. We’re all still flawed humans, but by the end of the week everyone felt lighter, happier, and healthier, and the house had a different atmosphere.Maybe I’m a sucker. Maybe it’s all placebo. Does it matter? I narrated a documentary once about the placebo effect: it is real. If it works, that’s all that counts, surely.Imagine a regulator approving placebo treatment …If you fancy a healing week with Michelle, find out more at www.healingwithmichelledavies.com. Just don’t tell the GOsC I sent you. And if you live abroad, don’t worry: one of the reasons she has started offering these weeks is that she wants to travel more. I gather she has just been booked to go to Singapore.Here’s the vid: If you enjoyed this, please tell a friend.Full disclosure: Michelle gave me a discount in exchange for helping her with above vid and for a review. I insisted the review be impartial, which it was, though if my experience had been negative, I probably wouldn’t have published it.Until next time,DominicPS Here, again, is this week’s commentary. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe
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  • The Correction Has Arrived
    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comWe worried it would come, and now it has.The dreaded correction.Silver and gold have been clobbered, hit for something like 6 and 9% from their highs at one point. The miners have been hit for more. GDX is down 15% from its Friday highs.This is quite the slap down, the biggest I can remember for years.What can I say? It was coming.How cruel a mistress is silver! She did exactly what she needed to do to suck everyone in, even the doubters like myself: went through $50 to $54, persuaded everyone that this time it’s different, sucked them in and then slapped them down. Oh, silver!Today we consider what to do next, and we’ll start with the big picture.There are several possible scenarios. Here are three of them:* That’s it. The bull market’s over. Silver reached $50, as it did it 1980 and 2011. Now it corrects, and it’ll be another decade or more before it gets there again. Batten down the hatches: we are going into another bear market. What we saw in the miners was just a 9-month relief rally, much as we got in 2016. Normal gold mining behaviour - relentless declines, in other words - will soon resume.* You don’t understand, gold is being remonetized. This is a new paradigm. Buy the dips. We’ll be back at new highs before you know.* Nothing goes up in a straight line, not even gold when it is re-entering the money system. Bull markets shake you off. We are going into a sideways correction that is going to last as long as a year. Possibly longer. It is going to frustrate everyone, bull and bear alike. The weak, hot money needs to be purged, the system cleansed of excess, before this thing can get going again. It’s a mid-cycle shake out.Which of these is it?And, most importantly of all, what do we do now?I’m going to give you my opinions on gold, silver, the miners, and the speculative positions in which we own stock.I’m also going to give you some target prices.This is what I think happens next.
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