Top Traders Unplugged

Trend following investors are constantly searching for ways to improve performance, but not every improvement survives contact with reality. Rob Carver joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore whether investors should chase the strongest trends, how different asset classes contribute to returns across market cycles, and why overfitting remains one of the biggest dangers in systematic investing. They also discuss the rise of AI generated trading strategies, the debate around perpetual futures, the changing role of economic data, and what diversification really means when markets become driven by a handful of dominant forces.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and summer optimism in the UK
02:10 - Middle East developments, SpaceX and the new Fed Chair
06:13 - Concerns about economic data and market transparency
10:38 - Trend following performance and current market positioning
14:39 - How Rob evaluates strategies and portfolio construction
19:57 - The factor zoo and true sources of return
22:37 - What trend following adds beyond traditional risk premia
29:54 - The rise of perpetual futures and exchange concerns
42:35 - Quantica research on trend performance across asset classes
55:01 - Why commodities have become a dominant source of trend returns
56:06 - AI generated trading strategies and the risk of overfitting
01:05:48 - Drawdowns, diversification and lessons from recent research
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Michael Pettis joins Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation on trade imbalances, globalization and the future of the world economy. Drawing on decades of research into China, Europe and financial history, Pettis argues that persistent trade surpluses are ultimately rooted in domestic income imbalances rather than national competitiveness. The discussion explores why China struggles to rebalance, why Europe may face its biggest challenge yet, and how US reindustrialization could reshape global trade. From Bretton Woods to modern tariffs, this episode offers a provocative framework for understanding the forces driving the next phase of the global economy.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Michael on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Michael Pettis warns that the real trade reckoning may still lie ahead
01:07 - Introduction to Michael Pettis and his background in finance and economics
06:34 - Why trade imbalances are ultimately driven by income imbalances
09:59 - Germany’s Hartz reforms and the roots of European imbalances
17:22 - Competitiveness versus productivity and the hidden costs of wage suppression
27:48 - China’s growth model and why rebalancing has proved so difficult
35:54 - Who will absorb China’s trade surplus if the US closes its deficit?
40:24 - Can the United States successfully reindustrialize?
45:31 - Why Europe may eventually turn toward protectionism
52:17 - The US deficit, global capital flows and the burden of dollar dominance
01:01:50 - Why the renminbi is unlikely to replace the dollar
01:10:45 - Historical trade imbalances and how painful adjustments unfold
01:16:21 - What Japan’s experience reveals about China’s future
01:21:02 - Final reflections on debt, globalization and economic adjustment
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Trend following has long promised and delivered diversification, crisis protection and uncorrelated returns. Yet many investors still struggle to hold it through difficult periods. In this conversation, Andrew Beer and Eric Crittenden explore why that gap exists and how combining trend following with equities may create a more durable portfolio. Together with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen discuss the rise of managed futures ETFs, the debate between simplicity and complexity in systematic investing, and why algorithmic discipline allows investors to act when intuition fails. The episode also examines portfolio construction, product design and the evolving role of alternatives in a changing investment landscape.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Eric on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series and the week's guests
02:19 - Eric reflects on recent market trends and challenging periods for trend followers
03:15 - Andrew shares optimism about AI, innovation and technological progress
06:25 - Elon Musk, SpaceX and the future of technological disruption
09:22 - The evolution of managed futures ETFs and the growing demand for alternative strategies
15:58 - How ETF liquidity works and why portfolio construction matters
19:40 - The case for combining equities and trend following into one portfolio
21:37 - Eric explains the philosophy behind his multi asset approach
31:15 - Product design, allocator behavior and why diversification often fails in practice
40:44 - Simplicity versus complexity in systematic investing
46:58 - Why elegant models often fail in real world markets
57:05 - Sharpe ratios, diversification and combining multiple return streams
59:52 - Andrew introduces the idea of Contrarian Tactical Alpha
01:02:55 - Eric on algorithmic discipline and why trends are uncomfortable to follow
01:05:26 - Final thoughts on trend following, risk management and portfolio construction
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

As Kevin Warsh prepares to take the reins at the Federal Reserve, a deeper question emerges: has the Fed reached the limits of what monetary policy can achieve? Cem Karsan sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth to explore the growing tensions between inflation, debt, financialization, and political pressure. From the future of quantitative easing and Treasury market risks to the rise of populism and the long term consequences of decades of intervention, this conversation examines whether the United States is approaching a turning point that could redefine the relationship between markets, government, and the Federal Reserve.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Danielle on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and why Kevin Warsh's arrival at the Fed matters
02:25 - Warsh steps into a divided Federal Reserve
05:13 - The debt problem and the pressures facing policymakers
07:52 - Can Warsh avoid another era of quantitative easing?
10:00 - Interest rates, inflation, and the limits of Fed policy
17:53 - Revisiting Arthur Burns and the lessons of the 1970s
23:02 - Treasury buybacks, debt monetization, and market stability
29:27 - Populism, demographics, and the future inflation outlook
37:34 - Is the Fed’s mandate shifting toward managing government debt?
43:06 - Sovereign wealth funds and the possibility of equity market intervention
45:56 - Would merging Treasury and the Fed end central bank independence?
49:59 - Has the Federal Reserve broken the natural business cycle?
51:22 - Final thoughts on crisis, reform, and America’s economic future
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks, and shifting market regimes are reshaping the investment landscape. Marat Molyboga and Katy Kaminski joins us to explore why managed futures have historically performed well during periods of geopolitical stress and why investors often misunderstand the role of crisis alpha in a portfolio. The conversation examines inflation driven market disruptions, diversification, short term versus long term trend following, portfolio construction, and the behavioural mistakes that prevent many investors from capturing the full benefits of trend strategies. It is a wide ranging discussion about risk, uncertainty, and adapting to a changing world.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and welcome to the Systematic Investor series
01:13 - Marat Molyboga's background and Efficient Capital's investment philosophy
05:29 - World Cup excitement, soccer stories, and thoughts beyond markets
11:36 - AI, market concentration, energy trends, and major macro headlines
15:16 - Trend following performance review and key market drivers in 2026
23:36 - Understanding crisis alpha and the role of managed futures in portfolios
33:24 - Diversification, portfolio construction, and avoiding investor mistakes
44:08 - Geopolitical risk research and its connection to inflation
53:01 - Why managed futures have historically benefited from geopolitical uncertainty
59:01 - Commodities, inflation shocks, and the mechanics behind crisis alpha
01:06:47 - The case for short term trend following and execution challenges
01:20:31 - Final thoughts and lessons for navigating an uncertain investment landscape
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer