Top Traders Unplugged

What happens when markets stop behaving like machines and start behaving like living systems? In this episode, Richard Brennan joins Niels to explore passive investing, complex adaptive systems, volatility suppression, and the hidden forces reshaping modern market structure. From structured products and reflexive flows to demographics, trend following, and the fragile illusion of equilibrium, this conversation asks whether markets are becoming more unstable precisely because investors believe they have become safer. A thoughtful and layered discussion about why price discovery may be weakening, why trends persist, and why systematic strategies may be more relevant in a world increasingly shaped by feedback loops.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the episode and overview of today’s discussion
02:22 - Richard Brennan breaks down passive investing through the lens of complex adaptive systems
06:51 - What “complex adaptive systems” actually means in markets
14:53 - Why passive investing changes market structure without individual investors realizing it
24:06 - Niels discusses structured products, volatility suppression, and market fragility
29:23 - How demographic shifts could eventually reshape passive investing trends
35:37 - Trend following performance update and the TTU Trend Barometer
38:48 - Listener question on variance, volatility, and correlation in systematic trend following
42:04 - The “murmuration” analogy and why markets behave like flocks instead of machines
48:31 - Why equilibrium theory survives despite failing to explain real markets
51:17 - The endogenous engine of markets and the mechanics of reflexivity
57:47 - How trend followers align with the architecture of modern markets
01:03:12 - Why passive investing weakens balancing forces and strengthens trends
01:13:43 - The statistical evidence showing markets structurally trend over time
01:21:18 - Why trend following may become even more effective in the future
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
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Disclaimer

On this episode we are joined by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann, to discuss his book New Space Capitalism: The Entrepreneurial Path to the Stars. We discuss why government-funded space programs were initially successful but also why the future of space exploration, and the space economy, will be driven by private companies. Dr. Zitelmann explains what he believes to be the key driver of unlocking the economic potential of space and why it’s conceivable that ventures such as space tourism, orbital data centers and asteroid mining might be listed on the stock exchange. This is a conversation for everyone who wants an early look at an industry that is about to “take off”!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Rainer on Instagram and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why incentives may explain why humans stopped going to the moon
01:07 - Kevin introduces Dr. Rainer Zitelmann and New Space Capitalism
02:47 - How childhood fascination with space led to a lifelong interest
05:45 - Why Apollo succeeded and why it may have been a historical exception
09:22 - The Space Shuttle program and the limits of government-led innovation
13:50 - How SpaceX changed the economics of launch services
20:32 - Why private property rights may be essential for space capitalism
24:36 - The legal uncertainty around owning land and resources in space
32:23 - How Mars settlement could be financed through private ownership
42:49 - Asteroid mining, space resources and the business case beyond Earth
48:06 - Space tourism and why early innovation often starts with the wealthy
53:51 - How investors might think about the emerging space economy
58:27 - Why space capitalism is no longer science fiction
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

The world of systematic investing is evolving fast, and in this episode Nick Baltas joins Moritz Seibert to explore the explosive growth of QIS strategies, the current state of trend following in 2026, and the challenges facing systematic investors in today’s macro environment. They discuss crowding risks in quantitative strategies, the recent collapse in commodity curve carry, and why some trend managers continue to outperform through broader diversification and alternative markets. The conversation also dives into execution alpha, AI driven research workflows, inflation risks, and the ongoing institutional demand for systematic macro strategies. A sharp and highly practical discussion for anyone interested in trend following, QIS, commodities, and quantitative investing.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Introduction to the episode
01:17 – Nick Baltas on AI, research, and market volatility
03:02 – Trend following performance update for May 2026
06:25 – What investors are focusing on in QIS strategies
10:14 – Is there cyclicality in investor demand for QIS?
15:25 – Wall Street Journal article on the growth of QIS
17:15 – Crowding risks and overlapping systematic strategies
24:15 – Can hedge funds front run QIS trades?
27:46 – Commodity curve carry explained
30:48 – Largest drawdown ever for commodity curve strategies
33:59 – Is now the right time to buy commodity curve carry?
37:20 – Why some curve carry implementations still made money
40:01 – Trend following performance across alternative vs traditional markets
44:21 – Why broader trend portfolios may improve Sharpe ratios
47:22 – Listener question: Is there alpha in execution?
49:53 – How CTAs think about execution and slippage
53:50 – Why trend following on single name equities is rare
57:58 – Chesapeake’s single name trend approach
59:04 – Final thoughts and wrap up
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Hari Krishnan joins Niels and Cem for a deep exploration of what happens when markets become dominated by flows rather than fundamentals. Drawing on his new paper with Mike Green and Stefan Sturm, Hari explains why rising passive ownership may weaken price discovery, amplify concentration in mega-cap stocks and create conditions for reflexive instability. The conversation expands far beyond indexing, touching on volatility targeting, leverage, dispersion, inflation, government intervention and the growing dependence of the global economy on rising asset prices. Along the way, Cem and Hari debate whether policymakers can continue stabilizing an increasingly fragile system, what could trigger a structural break, and how investors should think about positioning in a world where flows may matter more than fundamentals.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Hari on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Hari warns about a fragile financial system dependent on a handful of decision-makers
01:06 - Niels introduces Hari’s new paper with Mike Green and Stefan Sturm
03:00 - Why passive investing may weaken the link between fundamentals and prices
08:40 - The key assumptions behind the model
12:49 - How passive adoption accelerated structural market changes
15:11 - Cem explains why markets may now drive the economy rather than reflect it
23:38 - Can policymakers control a complex financial system?
27:03 - How passive flows amplify mega-cap concentration
31:22 - The changing role of dispersion, volatility and positioning
41:04 - What the model suggests about instability at high passive ownership levels
46:21 - Why 2022 may have been a warning sign
51:55 - Inflation, government intervention and the limits of market control
55:33 - What could trigger a systemic break?
01:07:28 - Political and demographic pressures beneath the system
01:10:43 - Hari’s portfolio implications: stay long, hedge smartly and own inflation sensitivity
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

This week, we are joined by Yoav Git and Rob Croce from Fidelity Investments for a deep dive into trend following, portfolio construction and execution in modern markets. The conversation explores why crisis alpha may come more from beta timing than market selection, the logic behind betting against beta, and how quantitative investors think about diversification, carry and relative value strategies. Along the way, the trio discuss Japan’s rising bond yields, momentum investing, execution risk during crises and even how ChatGPT helped solve a 60-year-old mathematical problem. This is a technical but highly practical discussion about how systematic investors build robust portfolios in a changing macro environment.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on LinkedIn and read his paper.
Follow Yoav on Linkedin.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:57 - Rob Croce’s path from economics to managed futures and trend following
04:38 - Yoav on AI-assisted mathematics and solving a 60-year-old problem
06:14 - Rob on out-of-sample testing and learning from market structure
11:42 - Rising Japanese bond yields and the global bond market backdrop
12:39 - Momentum investing and the growing popularity of trend-based strategies
17:04 - Current trend following environment across equities, bonds and commodities
19:13 - “Betting Against Beta” and why low-beta portfolios may outperform
25:43 - The role of leverage aversion and diversification in factor investing
34:26 - Rob Croce’s paper: where crisis alpha really comes from
40:31 - Why beta timing drives much of trend following’s defensive behavior
47:46 - Can carry improve trend following without sacrificing crisis alpha?
51:51 - Execution algorithms, risk reduction and trading during crises
57:46 - Why correlation spikes matter for portfolio execution and liquidity
01:04:05 - Final thoughts and where to find Rob Croce’s research
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer