TIP775: Why Your Valuation Metrics Might Be Lying to You w/ Kyle Grieve
Kyle Grieve breaks down Michael Mauboussin’s key insights on combating noise, valuing intangible-rich businesses, using the rule of 40, leveraging checklists and algorithms, understanding base rates, and more.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:03:00 - How to use the BIN acronym to help you deal with forecasting error
00:14:32 - Four myths in investing (many of which I’ve fallen for)
00:26:15 - Why you must take GAAP numbers on a case-by-case basis due to handicaps of the standard
00:25:07 - How the rise in passive investing is making active investing more challenging
00:33:19 - Why GAAP losers outperform GAAP winners
00:37:14 - Why you should understand the differences between pricing and valuing a business
00:48:39 - Why using assorted multiples will help identify true undervaluations
00:45:50 - How to utilize the rule of 40 in your investing regardless of whether you invest in tech or not
00:49:16 - What to know about the base rates of a public business’s survival
00:58:00 - Why most investments will fail and how to deal with the ones that succeed
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
Read The Consilient Observer here.
Learn about the BIN framework here.
Dive into the four myths here.
Explore valuation multiples more here
Understand total shareholder returns more here.
Improve your views on business survival here.
Follow Kyle on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Related books mentioned in the podcast.
Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed.
NEW TO THE SHOW?
Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter.
Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.
Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok.
Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.
Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.
Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.
SPONSORS
Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:
Simple Mining
Human Rights Foundation
Unchained
HardBlock
Linkedin Talent Solutions
Alexa+
Vanta
Amazon Ads
reMarkable
Shopify
Onramp
Abundant Mines
Horizon
• Public.com - see the full disclaimer here.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
--------
1:02:34
--------
1:02:34
TIP774: Being Greedy While Others are Fearful w/ Shawn O'Malley
On today’s episode, Clay is joined by Shawn O’Malley to discuss what he’s learned through hosting The Intrinsic Value Podcast over the past year. They also dive into The Intrinsic Value Portfolio, which includes holdings like Uber, Alphabet, Lululemon, Nike, and Adobe.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:42 - How The Intrinsic Value Portfolio has performed this year
00:18:23 - Why a sizable portion of The Intrinsic Value Portfolio is invested in big tech companies
00:28:41 - How Shawn gets comfortable investing in retail companies
00:43:07 - Why Nike is included in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio
00:49:27 - The best opportunities Shawn sees in today’s market
00:58:16 - Why Shawn is bullish on Adobe despite the collapsing stock price
01:17:23 - Shawn’s estimate of the intrinsic value of Adobe
01:24:19 - Shawn’s process for researching stocks
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
Check out The Intrinsic Value Podcast.
Check out The Intrinsic Value Newsletter.
Check out The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.
Check out The Intrinsic Value Community.
Mentioned Episode: TIP741: The Intrinsic Value of Uber & Reddit.
Related Episode: TIVP019: Adobe (ADBE): Designing a Creative Empire.
Related Episode: TIVP033: Lululemon (LULU): Still the King of Athleisure?
Follow Clay on LinkedIn & X.
Follow Shawn on LinkedIn & X.
Related books mentioned in the podcast.
Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed.
NEW TO THE SHOW?
Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter.
Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.
Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok.
Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.
Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.
Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.
SPONSORS
Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:
Simple Mining
Human Rights Foundation
Unchained
HardBlock
Linkedin Talent Solutions
Alexa+
Vanta
Amazon Ads
reMarkable
Shopify
Onramp
Public.com - See the full disclaimer here.
Abundant Mines
Horizon
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
In this episode, Seb and Preston explore Tesla's FSD 14.2 advancements and their implications for AI-driven autonomy. They also tackle the ethical, societal, and infrastructural challenges of rapid AI development—from brain-inspired computing to nuclear energy’s role in supporting AGI.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:44 - How Tesla’s FSD 14.2 dramatically improved its autonomous driving performance
00:13:42 - The ethical dilemmas and liability concerns around AI decision-making
00:20:27 - Tesla’s sensor-only approach versus LiDAR-heavy systems like Waymo
00:27:31- The potential of biologically-inspired artificial neurons
00:30:32 - How brain-computer interfaces could revolutionize AI and prosthetics
00:32:28 - The societal risks of tech-enhanced human capabilities
00:36:26 - How AI image generation tools like Google’s Nano Banana Pro are evolving
00:49:37 - Why AI’s energy demands are influencing nuclear power policy
01:00:06 - The risks of AI-induced content homogenization and “AI slop”
01:07:22 - Why some are turning to manual trades to escape AI disruption
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Seb’s book: The Hidden Cost of Money.
X Account: Seb Bunney.
Related books mentioned in the podcast.
Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed.
NEW TO THE SHOW?
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok.
Check out our Bitcoin Fundamentals Starter Packs.
Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.
Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.
Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter.
Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.
SPONSORS
Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:
Simple Mining
Human Rights Foundation
Unchained
HardBlock
Linkedin Talent Solutions
Kubera
Vanta
reMarkable
Onramp
Public.com - See the full disclaimer here.
Netsuite
Shopify
Abundant Mines
Horizon
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
--------
1:13:44
--------
1:13:44
TIP773: How Systems and Simple Math Shape Better Investing w/ Kyle Grieve
On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve discusses powerful mental models from systems thinking and mathematics and applies them directly to investing and life. He breaks down concepts like feedback loops, kill criteria, scale, compounding, randomness, and regression to the mean to show how they shape real-world outcomes. He'll also share practical frameworks for improving decision-making, managing uncertainty, and positioning your portfolio to benefit from long-term compounding.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:03:23 - How feedback loops stabilize or reinforce outcomes in investing
00:10:11 - How kill criteria help you make predetermined decisions in a noisy world
00:14:09 - Why the cone of uncertainty is useful for evaluating conviction and position sizing
00:17:33 - How scale changes the behavior, costs, and risks of a growing business
00:25:06 - How algorithms clarify which inputs drive the conclusions you rely on
00:30:20 - How to evaluate a company’s ability to reach critical mass and become self-sustaining
00:35:35 - The hidden forms of compounding that are just as powerful as the visible ones
00:40:02 - Why power laws should influence your portfolio concentration
00:43:12 - How randomness shapes investing outcomes, and how to take advantage of it
00:51:24 - Why regression to the mean matters during periods of strong or weak performance
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
Buy Thinking in Systems here.
Buy The Great Mental Models Vol 3: Systems and Mathematics here.
Buy Quit here.
Listen to my interview with Annie Duke here.
Follow Kyle on X and LinkedIn.
Related books mentioned in the podcast.
Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed.
NEW TO THE SHOW?
Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter.
Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.
Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok.
Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.
Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.
Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.
SPONSORS
Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:
Simple Mining
Human Rights Foundation
Unchained
Onramp
HardBlock
Amazon Ads
reMarkable
Alexa+
Linkedin Talent Solutions
Public.com
Vanta
Netsuite
Shopify
Abundant Mines
Horizon
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
--------
1:04:41
--------
1:04:41
TIP772: How Great Compounders Turn Time Into a Superpower w/ Kyle Grieve
On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve discusses what makes elite compounders so valuable and why they can generate exceptional returns even when purchased at high valuations.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:42 - Why Compounders deserve to trade at a premium
00:10:13 - The three parameters necessary for successful compounding
00:12:49 - The two approaches for reinvestment that compounders take advantage of
00:14:42 - How compounders create resiliency
00:19:37 - The reasons Sweden has so many successful serial acquirers
00:25:25 - About the two pioneers of Swedish decentralization
00:25:25 - Why Electrolux has created so many great business cultures
00:31:03 - The importance of discipline to successful serial acquirers
00:38:36 - The benefits of working capital KPIs
00:57:54 - The surprising ingredient of compounders
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
Buy The Compounders here.
Listen to MI310 A Serial Acquirer Deep Dive: here.
Follow Kyle on X and LinkedIn.
Related books mentioned in the podcast.
Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed.
NEW TO THE SHOW?
Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter.
Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.
Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok.
Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.
Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.
Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.
SPONSORS
Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:
Simple Mining
Human Rights Foundation
Unchained
HardBlock
Linkedin Talent Solutions
Kubera
Vanta
reMarkable
Onramp
Public.com
Netsuite
Shopify
Abundant Mines
Horizon
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
About We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
We interview and study famous financial billionaires, including Warren Buffett, Ray Dalio, and Howard Marks, and teach you what we learn and how you can apply their investment strategies in the stock market.
We Study Billionaires is the largest stock investing podcast show in the world with 180,000,000+ downloads and is hosted by Stig Brodersen, Preston Pysh, William Green, Clay Finck, and Kyle Grieve.
This podcast also includes the Richer Wiser Happier series hosted by best-selling author William Green. William regularly interviews legendary investors such as Mohnish Pabrai and Guy Spier, exploring what they can teach us about how to succeed in markets and life.
And finally, our Bitcoin Fundamentals series is hosted by Preston Pysh, where he interviews prominent figures in the Bitcoin and macroeconomic space. To learn more about TIP, you can visit theinvestorspodcast.com or subscribe to our free daily newsletter here.
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm