Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill
A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn.
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16:29
Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming
With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began.
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29:49
Dogespierre Has Left The Building: DOGE’s impact on US government spending; Spanish Power outage; Trump Tracker
Like his predecessor Robespierre, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants. With Dogespierre now stepping back to spend more time on his core businesses, we take an early look at DOGE’s impact on US government spending, the likely overestimation of estimated savings, negative fiscal feedback loops from firing IRS workers, conflicts of interest and possible consequences of DOGE spending cuts. Also: the latest data from the Trump Tracker and some comments on the Spanish power outage.
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26:07
Redacted
Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions.
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13:00
Fifty Days of Grey
Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law.
While market consensus assumed the administration would carefully balance inflationary, anti-growth policies with pro-growth policies, it has come storming out of the gate with more of the former than the latter. The only surprise is that it’s happening before 50 days has passed since the inauguration.
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UK