Joe Lonsdale: American Optimist

• Ep 123: The New Space Age with Palantir Alum & Apex Space CEO Ian Cinnamon

  Reusable rockets, new economics, and surging investment are quickly making space one of the most promising areas for growth and innovation. Like other areas of defense, we're in a transition from billion-dollar, exquisite satellites to the proliferation of attritable platforms. What are the new markets and opportunities this creates? How will the Golden Dome impact the space race and competition with China? And what exciting possibilities, like asteroid mining, are in our future?This week we talk all things space with Ian Cinnamon, co-founder and CEO of Apex Space, a satellite platform company. A graduate of MIT and Stanford Business School, Ian first launched a startup incubator, Superlabs, with Mark Pincus before founding Synapse, a computer vision company later acquired by Palantir. There, Ian worked on key initiatives like Project Maven before leaving to build Apex, and bring speed and efficiency to satellite platform manufacturing.We begin with Ian's entrepreneurial journey and how his research at MIT informed the creation of Synapse. A top talent at Palantir, he reveals what it was like working on Project Maven — and the protesters that inspired him — plus the "light bulb moment" that led him to launch Apex. Next, we dive into the space boom and how SpaceX upended the entire way we think about, and build, for space. Learn about the unique challenges of engineering for space, why Apex is moving toward full vertical integration, and how it plans to meet skyrocketing demand for more launches. We also discuss President Trump's ambitious Golden Dome project, new possibilities for space-based interceptors, and China's plans to overtake U.S. supremacy in space. Finally, we conclude with Ian's most exciting innovations beyond Earth, and why asteroid mining isn't as far-fetched as you might think.00:00 Episode intro02:09 MIT, cognitive science & building Synapse06:17 Palantir, Project Maven, and protestors8:53 Ian's "light bulb moment" for building Apex15:23 The space boom & new possibilities21:30 Engineering for space and lessons from SpaceX27:50 China's ambitious space plans30:19 Golden Dome & space-based interceptors36:00 Understanding orbit altitudes for satellites40:00 Is China trying to steal your IP?44:13 Asteroid mining and new possibilities beyond Earth This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

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• Ep 122: The AI Services Revolution with Shreyas Parab & Anton Lin of DayDream

  This week we're talking dental billing! Why? Because large parts of the $5 trillion US services economy, like medical billing, are inefficient and dysfunctional, which holds back growth and increases costs for Americans. How is AI transforming these broken sectors? What's possible now that wasn't just a few years ago? And if AI can revolutionize dental billing, what does that mean for productivity at large?We dive into the AI services wave with DayDream's Shreyas Parab, co-founder & CEO, and Anton Lin, co-founder & CTO. DayDream is applying AI to transform revenue cycle management (RCM) for dentists, and helping them recover the money they are owed faster and more effectively. Chasing down errant claims can take humans years; DayDream is doing it in weeks with AI agents!We begin with the broken state of medical billing -- thousands of rules per company, little written down, and knowledge passed down person-to-person like an ancient religion. Shreyas and Anton explain how LLMs can reason through unstructured processes in ways that previous business logic couldn't. Next, we discuss the lost revenue from missing claims (nearly 20% of all claims!), and how AI agents are becoming so effective that humans can't tell the difference. This raises the obvious question: will agentic solutions result in mass layoffs? Shreyas and Anton say the opposite is true -- AI is enabling billers to operate at higher levels and focus on expanding the business instead of waiting on hold with insurance companies. If top talent plus AI can revamp Byzantine systems like dental billing, there's a tremendous opportunity to reform the entire services economy. This means economic growth, and disinflation that benefits everyone.00:00 Episode intro01:35 What’s so important about dental billing?07:50 Will AI destroy dental billing jobs?9:50 AI agents are becoming indistinguishable from humans17:45 Private equity rolling up dental24:56 Understanding the AI services model This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

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• Ep 121: Reid Hoffman on AI Optimism & How the Democratic Party Alienated Silicon Valley

  Reid Hoffman is a longtime leader in Silicon Valley and vocal AI optimist; he's also a major Democratic Party donor. What happens when AI runs headfirst into labor unions and key Democratic interests? Why is Reid calling out his party for alienating Silicon Valley? And can a divided country unite around a positive AI future?Join us for an important conversation at the intersection of technology, politics, and policy. An early member of the PayPal mafia, Reid went on to co-found LinkedIn and became a prolific investor as Partner at Greylock and Chairman of Village Global. He's also a Microsoft board member, popular podcast host, and author, most recently of “Superagency: What Could Possibly Go Right with Our AI Future."We begin with lessons from PayPal and the unique culture that united an iconic cast of characters. Then we dive into Reid's latest book "Superagency" and his case for AI optimism. Reid's enthusiasm collides with Democratic Party strongholds, so I challenged him on how he reconciles these conflicts and whether AI can win out over special interests. Case in point: autonomous trucks. Reid's a key investor in Aurora, which is based in California but launching its first trucks in Texas. Red states are increasingly the laboratories of innovation and growth, which Reid acknowledges and admits is a major challenge that he raises with blue-state governors. Next, we discuss the six levels of the AI investment stack and where Reid is focused, plus his advice for startups amid the scale compute race. We also explore the future of social media and why Reid is creating his own AI clone. Finally, we revisit Silicon Valley's pivot to the right and why Reid is calling out the Democratic Party for prioritizing DEI and identity politics over merit and innovation.We didn't focus the episode on our obvious political disagreements, but rather the areas where we agree: Reid is an optimist and shares that trait with a lot of my PayPal mafia friends even if he doesn't share our worldview. If we're going to accelerate our country into an optimistic AI future and lift up millions of lives -- which I hope to help achieve! -- then we need to have conversations across the aisle aimed at advancing pro-growth, freedom-oriented policies.00:00 Episode intro02:00 What made the PayPal Mafia unique?06:38 The best arguments for AI optimism10:59 Reid's optimism vs Democratic Party strongholds14:15 Inflection AI & lessons for AI startups19:53 Why Reid made an AI clone22:54 AI tutors vs teachers unions26:59 How Democrats alienated Silicon Valley32:56 Pushing back on antisemitism36:38 Advice for entrepreneurs in the AI age This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

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• Ep 120: OMB Director Russ Vought on the Big Beautiful Bill, Making DOGE Permanent & the Looming Battle over Impoundment

  We're joined this week by a key architect of President Trump's budget and regulatory agenda: Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought. How much does the Big Beautiful Bill actually rein in spending? Will DOGE cuts become permanent? What is the Impoundment Act of 1974 and why will this be a crucial fight in the coming months? We discuss these timely policy issues and more with the "radical constitutionalist" at the helm of Trump's OMB in his first and second terms. From ending critical race theory at all federal agencies to spearheading historic deregulatory actions and making bureaucrats accountable again, Director Vought has been instrumental in some of the most consequential policy battles in Washington D.C. In this episode, we begin with his efforts to reform the administrative state, and why the next major battle will center on the 1974 Impoundment Act and the President's authority over appropriated funds. Learn why Democrats' retaliation against President Nixon tipped the balance of power toward unelected bureaucrats, and how Director Vought seeks to restore proper constitutional balance. Next, we dive into the Big Beautiful Bill and why he believes it's the most consequential mandatory spending reform to ever pass into law. And when it comes to discretionary spending, he reiterates his commitment to make the DOGE cuts permanent and outlines possible strategies, whether through impoundment or a rescissions packages via Congress. Finally, we talk about his role in winding down one of the most egregious examples of government overreach — the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — and why Americans should be optimistic that, for the first time in decades, real fiscal and regulatory restraint is starting to take hold in Washington D.C. 00:00 Episode intro 01:43 Role of OMB Director & lessons from Trump’s first term 04:37 The looming battle over impoundment & Presidential power07:25 Can we return merit & tests to government? 12:12 Big Beautiful Bill - how much does it actually cut? 19:41 What's the future of DOGE? 22:03 Dismantling the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau 25:10 Can Washington DC actually be reined in? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

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• Ep 119: Former Waymo Leader Boris Sofman on Autonomous Construction & Bringing AI into the Physical World

  Construction is a $2 trillion U.S. industry ($13 trillion globally) that impacts nearly every aspect of our lives. Yet, building has become too expensive and too slow to meet rising demand and aging infrastructure. What if we can apply breakthroughs from self-driving to construction? And what if we can use AI to operate heavy machinery autonomously 24/7?This week, we bring the AI revolution into the physical world with Boris Sofman, co-founder and CEO of Bedrock Robotics. Founded by three former Waymo leaders, Bedrock emerged from stealth this week to bring autonomy to the construction industry. Boris earned his PhD in Robotics at Carnegie Mellon before founding Anki — a consumer robotics company that produced some of the world's most popular toy robots. After Anki was acquired by Google, Boris became Director of Engineering and Head of Trucking at Waymo, where he was instrumental in Waymo's successful deployment into major cities across the country.We begin with his journey from the Soviet Union to the U.S. as a young boy, and how Boris fell in love with engineering. We discuss the consumer robotics wave and his time building Anki, before jumping into the race for self-driving cars. Get a rare look behind the scenes at Waymo and the extreme engineering challenges Boris and his team had to solve. Next, he reveals the recent developments that unlocked autonomy for heavy construction and the immense potential to transform the cost, quality, and speed of building in the U.S. Already, unions and special interests are lining up against these technologies; learn why Boris believes autonomy will unlock a wave of pent-up demand and create even more jobs and opportunities for humans. Bedrock is one the companies and teams I'm most bullish on, and you'll see why!00:00 Episode intro 02:16 Soviet Union to robotics leader 06:57 Conquering self-driving at Waymo 14:38 Why leave Waymo to start Bedrock? 19:10 How to make heavy machinery autonomous 24:06 AI breakthroughs that make this possible 31:06 Why autonomy will create jobs, not destroy them 37:44 The impact of the robotics revolution This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com

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