Stock Market Updates

• Opening Bell - 09 / 05 / 25

  Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryUS stocks rose on a trade deal with the UK - Our markets fell as geopolitical tensions escalated.U.S. equity markets closed higher on Thursday, following a trade agreement between the U.S. and U.K., Which is expected to lower U.S. tariffs on products such as autos, steel, aluminium and aerospace engines imported from the U.K.This is the first trade agreement with a significant trading partner since the U.S. unveiled its tariff plans on April 2. Although the impact of this agreement will be limited, markets reacted favourably, hoping that it could help provide a framework for further negotiations with other trading partners in the weeks ahead.The U.K. was responsible for roughly 2% of U.S. goods imports in 2024, and was the destination for approximately 4% of U.S. goods exports.The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 1.9% to close at its highest level since April 2, when the tariffs were initially announced.On the economic front, weekly initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week, suggesting that the labour market remains stable. However, a separate report showed worker productivity dropped in the first quarter for the first time in nearly three years.Oil prices were little changed early on Friday after rising more than 3% in the previous session, as trade tensions between the top oil consumers, the U.S. and China, showed signs of easing.Japanese stocks jumped, supported by the dollar's surge against the yen, after a U.S. trade deal with Britain fuelled hopes of progress in tariff talks with other countries. Bitcoin soared to its highest level since January. Our markets fell yesterday as India-Pakistan border tensions escalated. As we have been alerting our readers, it is prudent to prepare rather than panic. We advise traders to keep leveraged and speculative positions light and use derivatives to hedge short-term exposures. The Nifty mid- and small-cap indices fell sharply along with the Benchmark indices. The Nifty Midcap 100 Index plunged by 1.95%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 Index plummeted by 1.43%. Market breadth turned decisively negative, with declining shares significantly outnumbering advancing ones.The Nifty's short-term trend turned weak as it closed below its 5-day EMA, which was placed at 24340 levels. On the higher side, the 24340-24500 band is likely to act as immediate resistance, while the 23978-23800 could provide immediate support on the downside as markets digest the unfolding geopolitical situation.

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• Opening Bell - 06 / 05 / 25

  Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryEmerging Markets currency Index rises to an all-time high - Expect more demand for emerging markets assets. U.S. equity markets closed modestly lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 snapping a streak of nine consecutive days with positive returns. The energy sector was a laggard, declining by 2%, driven by a fall in oil prices following an announcement that OPEC+ will bring additional oil supply to the market beginning in June.On the economic front, the ISM Services PMI was higher than expected for April at 51.6, highlighting resilience in the U.S. economy's services sector despite the uncertain trade-policy backdrop.Investors will focus on central-bank policy this week. The FOMC meeting for May concludes on Wednesday, and expectations are that the Fed will hold its policy rate steady at 4.25%—4.5%.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed optimism over progress in U.S.-China trade talks, though he acknowledged the current 145% tariff levels were unsustainable. He emphasised that the U.S., being the deficit country, held more leverage.The MSCI EM FX Index is a benchmark that measures the performance of emerging market currencies against the US dollar. It rose to a record high as the Taiwan dollar and other peers were bolstered by the American dollar's weakness amid fresh signs of a potential de-escalation of the trade war. Strong demand for EM currencies eventually translates into stronger demand for EM stocks or bonds.Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) is set to acquire a 51% stake in Yes Bank. This marks a significant shift in ownership for India’s sixth-largest private lender.India will conduct a civil defence mock drill on 7 May 2025 across 244 districts in a major national preparedness move. Prompted by the recent Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 lives, the drill will involve local authorities, students, and volunteers and assess readiness for air raid warnings, blackout protocols, and civilian evacuation procedures.The Nifty rose to fresh 2025 highs on Monday on strong global cues. The Indian Rupee witnessed a significant surge, reaching its highest level in six months.Technically, the Nifty remains firmly in an uptrend, trading above its key moving averages. On the higher side, 24590 is likely to act as an immediate resistance, while the24,200 level could provide immediate support on the downside.

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• Opening Bell - 02 / 05 / 25

  Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryRecord GST numbers since its launch.U.S. stocks advanced on Thursday, with the Dow and S&P 500 posting their eighth straight session of gains after strong results from mega-caps Microsoft and Meta eased concerns about artificial intelligence spending.Microsoft surged 7.6% and closed at its highest level since late January, driven by an upbeat quarterly growth forecast for its cloud-computing business Azure. The gains briefly pushed Microsoft above Apple to become the world's most valuable company.Meta Platforms gained 4.2% and closed at its highest since April 9 after posting higher-than-expected revenue due to a strong advertising performance.The results helped allay fears that the massive spending on AI in recent years would not be rewarded, and eased concerns that President Donald Trump's tariffs could dent economic growth.Shares of Apple and Amazon.com eased in after-hours trading on Thursday, with forecasts, including Apple's estimated tariff costs, disappointing investors after U.S. tech-related shares jumped earlier in the day.Amazon.com shares were down 2.5% after it reported first-quarter cloud revenue growth and forecast operating income below estimates.The final S&P U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April held steady at 50.2, compared with forecasts for a drop to 48.5*. The figure remained above the key 50.0 mark, reflecting expansion for the fourth consecutive month.The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI for April declined modestly to 48.7, reflecting contraction but exceeding expectations for a larger drop to 48.0. Within ISM's components, supplier deliveries and inventories were the most significant positive contributors, while production, employment and new orders were the leading detractors.Britain's FTSE 100 index edged higher, extending its winning streak to 14 consecutive sessions. Consumer staples and financial shares led the index.The yen tumbled 1.7% to 145.00 per dollar—its biggest fall this year—after the Bank of Japan's 'dovish hold' on interest rates.Oil prices recorded the most significant monthly drop in almost three and a half years after Saudi Arabia signalled a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, while the global trade war eroded the outlook for fuel demand.Indian auto majors reported April monthly sales numbers in line with market expectations, with M&M leading the pack.India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection rose 12.6% Year over Year to an all-time high of about ₹2.37 lakh crore in April. This is the highest monthly collection since the tax was introduced in 2017. GST revenue from domestic transactions rose 10.7 per cent to about ₹1.9 lakh crore, while imported goods were up 20.8 per cent to ₹46,913 crore.Overall trend for the Nifty remains bullish, as it continues to trade above all key moving averages. Immediate support for the Nifty is placed at 24150, below which it could further fall towards 23870. On the higher side, 24450-24500 band is expected to continue acting as a significant resistance band.

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• Opening Bell - 30 / 04 / 25

  Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryCorporate Results and Global Politics to Steer MarketsU.S. equity markets closed higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 extending its winning streak to six consecutive days. Stocks finished in positive territory after fluctuating between modest gains and losses during choppy trading as investors evaluated recent corporate earnings, economic data, and trade policy developments. Most S&P 500 sectors ended higher, with cyclical sectors like materials and financials advancing. The S&P 500 has rallied approximately 12% from its April 8 low, now roughly 9% below its February 19 all-time high.Equity markets climbed on news that the U.S. will exempt automakers from additional steel and aluminium tariffs, preventing these costs from compounding existing auto tariffs. Reports indicate that imported auto parts for U.S. manufacturers will face lower tariffs than initially announced, while USMCA-compliant parts from Canada and Mexico will remain tariff-free. The market rally since April 8 has been fuelled by de-escalation in U.S. trade tension, including possible reduced China tariffs and potential near-term agreements with major trading partners.JOLTS job openings for March were lower than expected, falling to 7.2 million compared with the 7.5 million in the prior month.The U.S. GDP in Q1 2025 is expected to show a significant slowdown from the previous quarter, with a potential negative growth rate, a considerable deceleration from the prior quarter's 2.4% gain, as a surge in imports earlier this year and more cautious consumer spending trends potentially weigh on growth in the first quarter.The primary drag on the Q1 forecast is the record-high goods trade deficit, which is somewhat offset by inventory additions by businesses trying to bypass the tariffs. Due to weather disruptions, private spending will likely be slower than in Q4CY24. In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party emerged as the winner in the federal election, but fell short of a majority. With 172 seats out of 343, the Liberals will need support from smaller parties to form a government. The backdrop of trade war tensions and annexation threats from U.S. President Donald Trump heavily influenced the election campaign.An official survey showed on Wednesday that China's manufacturing activity contracted in April, reversing two months of recovery and keeping alive calls for further stimulus. Four of the so-called Magnificent Seven - Microsoft Corp., Apple Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. - are also due to report earnings this week.Nifty is in a continuation of an uptrend, as it is placed above all key moving averages. The index's next resistance is 24545, which happens to be a 61.8% retracement of the entire fall from 26277 to 21743. On the downside, the 24150 level will likely act as immediate support for the Nifty.

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• Opening Bell - 29 / 04 / 25

  Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryWall Street Pauses as Key Economic Reports and Corporate Earnings LoomThe S&P 500 closed a choppy session nearly unchanged on Monday, weighed down by mega-caps as investors awaited several catalysts, including key economic data and earnings from some of the largest U.S. companies.Approximately 30% of companies in the S&P 500 are scheduled to report first-quarter results this week, coinciding with the release of several important economic indicators. Wednesday will bring the preliminary estimate for first-quarter GDP growth and a reading on the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Expectations suggest real GDP growth will slow to a 0.8% annualised rate, a significant deceleration from the prior quarter's 2.4% gain, as a surge in imports earlier this year and more cautious consumer spending trends potentially weigh on growth in the first quarter.On the inflation front, core PCE is expected to rise by 2.6% year over year, while headline PCE is anticipated to increase by a relatively modest 2.2% annually. Both figures would represent improvements from prior readings, potentially supporting the case for eventual monetary policy easing.President Donald Trump is on track to ease the impact of his auto tariffs, with the industry seeking changes to lift some levies on foreign parts for cars and trucks made inside the US.Market sentiment remains sensitive to developments in U.S.-China relations, with a lack of clarity on bilateral negotiations keeping investors cautious. Absent an obvious catalyst like a surprise U.S.-China trade agreement, markets will likely lack clear direction this week but remain choppy. Several events could influence trading, including month-end portfolio rebalancing, earnings reports from major technology companies, a Bank of Japan policy meeting, U.S. Q1 GDP data, and April employment figures.The prevailing "risk-off" tone in U.S. trading lifted gold nearly 1% back toward $3,350 per ounce, while oil retreated. Brent crude futures lost 1.5% to close at $65.86 per barrel.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that India could be among the first countries to finalise a trade agreement with the United States. Should India successfully negotiate favourable terms, such a development would likely strengthen market confidence and stimulate positive investor sentiment.Following a brief two-day phase of profit booking, the Indian market demonstrated a strong rebound. Nifty resumed its upward move by rising 289 points or 1.2%, to close at 24328 yesterday. The Nifty index maintained its positive momentum, extending the established upward trend. The index's next resistance is at 24545, which happens to be a 61.8% retracement of the entire fall from 26277 to 21743. On the downside, 24150 could offer immediate support for the Nifty.

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