The Rational Reminder Podcast

• Episode 384: Mamdouh Medhat - A Profitability Retrospective, and Private Fund Performance

  In this episode, we're joined by Mamdouh Medhat, VP and Senior Researcher at Dimensional Fund Advisors, for an exceptionally deep, exceptionally nerdy exploration of factor investing—focusing on profitability, value, defensive equity, and the persistent misunderstandings that surround them. Mamdouh walks us through his retrospective paper (co-authored with Robert Novy-Marx) on the profitability premium, why profitability subsumes a wide range of quality metrics, and why it dramatically clarifies how we should think about defensive/low-volatility strategies. He also explains the role of profitability in value's US underperformance since 2007, why price-to-book remains a remarkably effective valuation metric, and how Dimensional incorporates these insights into portfolio construction. In the second half of the conversation, we shift to private markets. Mamdouh unpacks Dimensional's research on buyouts, venture capital, private credit, and private real estate—revealing what percentage of the global investable universe these funds actually represent, how to benchmark them properly, how much dispersion exists across managers, how fair-value accounting changed the game post-2007, and why many perceived diversification benefits are actually just return smoothing. Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Intro to Mamdouh Medhat and why his research fits the Rational Reminder "nerdy happy place." (1:32) The story behind Mamdouh's retrospective paper with Robert Novy-Marx and the impact of the original profitability research on academia and practice. (5:36) Three things the paper examines: quality investing, defensive/low-risk strategies, and value—unified through profitability. (6:55) Why none of the 15 major academic and practitioner quality metrics add explanatory power beyond profitability. (8:18) How spanning tests show profitability explains quality, but quality does not explain profitability. (12:24) Quality measures largely load on profitability—they're noisier versions of the same thing. (13:14) The link between quality metrics and fundamental momentum, especially for QMJ and quarterly ROE. (15:18) Practical implications: profitability is a parsimonious, more efficient way to capture the "quality" dimension. (16:30) Defensive equity through the profitability lens—why high profitability predicts low volatility. (18:58) Why long-only low-volatility strategies produce zero five-factor alpha—and why a simple high-profitability/low-investment portfolio plus T-bills beats them. (22:14) Alternative value metrics (EBITDA/EV, intangible-adjusted book-to-market, etc.) don't outperform price-to-book when profitability is accounted for. (24:57) Many "improved" value metrics simply rotate in profitability exposure, not better value information. (26:17) Roughly half of US value's post-2007 underperformance is explained by its negative correlation with profitability. (28:42) Industry tilts (e.g., energy/financials vs. tech/healthcare) drive much of value's volatility—not its long-term return. (30:33) The theoretical case for combining clean valuation (price-to-book) with clean expected cash flow (profitability). (33:36) Academic implications: models must jointly explain value and profitability—and their negative correlation. (35:09) Practitioner implications: parsimony—use clear valuation and cash-flow measures, limit excessive complexity. (36:53) How Dimensional measures profitability: operating profitability (revenue – COGS – SG&A – interest) scaled by book equity. (41:09) Why tilting toward or away from countries based on aggregate characteristics rarely adds value—premiums come from stocks, not countries. (42:57) Industry-level tilts show similar patterns—industry momentum exists but is impractical due to massive turnover. (46:15) How Dimensional handles country and industry weights: sort within countries, then apply sector caps. (48:27) Private markets: private funds make up roughly 10% of the global investable universe—not 25–100% as sometimes claimed. (50:53) Benchmark choice for private funds is crucial—S&P 500 is not appropriate for buyouts or VCs. (52:00) Using KSPME (public-market equivalent), buyouts and VCs match small-cap value/growth benchmarks; private credit matches high yield; private real estate underperforms listed real estate. (55:50) Factor exposures post-2007 explain 70–80% of private-fund return variation due to fair-value accounting. (1:00:48) Wide dispersion in private-fund performance—top 5% double or triple capital; bottom 5% lose half. (1:03:49) Little evidence of manager persistence—manager selection must rely on due diligence, not past vintages. (1:08:24) No strong time trend in private-fund outperformance, but correlations with public markets have increased. (1:09:13) Many diversification benefits historically attributed to private assets were actually illiquidity-driven smoothing. (1:12:25) Rising demand and democratization likely reduce expected returns in private markets—exclusivity is fading.   Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

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• Episode 383: AMA #10 - Dollar cost averaging & mutual funds vs. ETFs

  In this episode of Rational Reminder, Ben Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Ben Wilson return with a classic AMA format—answering listener questions that dig deep into the behavioral and evidence-based foundations of sensible investing. From lump-sum investing to the psychology of advice, the trio blend data, humor, and clear thinking to demystify complex financial ideas. They discuss the behavioral logic behind dollar-cost averaging, why mutual funds might actually be more tax-efficient than ETFs in Canada, and whether technology could ever truly replace human financial advisors. Plus, they share their biggest investing mistakes (yes, Bitcoin makes an appearance), dissect the rise of "buffered" ETFs, and explain why chasing complexity usually costs investors more than it helps. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:05) Introduction – The first episode featuring all three hosts together: Ben Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Ben Wilson. (0:44) OneDigital update: expanding evidence-based advice across Canada with new PWL partners in Halifax. (2:36) The mission in motion – bringing the "markets work and planning matters" philosophy to more Canadians. (5:29) "Finding and funding a good life" – how PWL integrates wellness and happiness into financial planning. (6:16) AMA Question 1: Lump-sum vs. dollar-cost averaging — why lump-sum wins 65% of the time. (10:05) Base rates, behavioral regret, and the real role of an advisor. (12:22) The 2020 PWL paper results and how behavioral hedging fits in. (16:10) If dollar-cost averaging feels safer, maybe your portfolio is too aggressive. (18:08) AMA Question 2: Advice for smaller portfolios — how technology, AI, and fee-only planners can fill the gap. (21:01) Can AI really replace advisors? Cameron's Waymo analogy sparks debate. (23:33) AMA Question 3: Mutual funds vs. ETFs — why in Canada, mutual funds may actually be more tax-efficient. (30:00) The Capital Gains Refund Mechanism (CGRM) explained — and why it matters. (34:31) Dimensional's Canadian funds vs. Vanguard ETFs — tax distribution data that surprises most investors. (37:40) AMA Question 4: Are discount bonds priced for tax efficiency? The evidence says no—discount bonds still win. (42:23) AMA Question 5: Biggest investment mistakes — from Bitcoin regrets to house-buying reflections. (48:15) AMA Question 6: Buffered ETFs — comfort, complexity, and why simple portfolios outperform. (53:45) Simplicity as a superpower — why "markets work" is still the most radical idea in finance. (55:27) AMA Question 7: Updating the RR model portfolio — why there's no "optimal" portfolio and simplicity wins again. (58:31) After show: Reviews, humor, and a reminder about "No Net Worth November." (1:04:15) Life offline — Cameron's reflections on quitting social media and finding clarity. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

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• Episode 382: Ted Cadsby - The Power of Index Funds, and Being Human

  In this episode, Ben, Cameron, and Dan are joined by Ted Cadsby, former executive at CIBC, author of The Power of Index Funds, Closing the Mind Gap, and Hard to Be Human. Ted brings a rare combination of experience in both finance and cognitive psychology, having helped introduce index investing to Canada before turning his attention to how human thinking itself often misleads us. Ted shares inside stories from his time at CIBC—how he tried to make the bank an indexing leader in the late 1990s, the pushback he faced, and why he still believes so deeply in indexing today. Then, the conversation turns to human cognition: why our brains evolved for simplicity, certainty, and emotion, and how those traits can sabotage both our portfolios and our peace of mind. From "greedy reductionism" and "certainty addiction" to emotional overreaction and competing selves, Ted unpacks the five cognitive design flaws that make it hard to be human—and how metacognition and mindfulness can help us overcome them. Key Points From This Episode:   (0:04) Introduction to the Rational Reminder Podcast and hosts. (0:18) Cameron's story about rediscovering The Power of Index Funds and reconnecting with Ted Cadsby. (2:21) How Ted brought index investing to CIBC and tried to make the bank a leader in indexing. (5:58) Why assessing active managers taught Ted about randomness, noise, and the illusion of skill. (8:42) The moment Ted "saw the light" on indexing—and why randomness, not market efficiency, is the real obstacle for active managers. (12:54) How Ted tried to implement index investing at CIBC and the cultural resistance he faced. (15:05) The goals of The Power of Index Funds (1999) and how he tied indexing to human behavior. (18:49) How his indexing push created internal conflict at CIBC and ultimately led to his departure. (23:23) The influence of John Bogle and Vanguard on Ted's mission to bring indexing to Canada. (26:59) Why he's still passionate about indexing, and what worries him about private equity. (31:44) How human cognition and philosophy led him from finance to exploring how we think. (34:46) The "Big Five" cognitive design flaws that shape human decision-making:  1. Greedy reductionism – our urge to oversimplify complex systems.  2. Certainty addiction – craving the feeling of knowing, even when we're wrong.  3. Emotional hostage-taking – overreacting and ruminating.  4. Competing selves – inner conflicts between present and future selves.  5. Misguided search for meaning – overextending our need for purpose. (44:11) Why modern life amplifies these flaws and how System 1 (automatic) and System 2 (deliberate) thinking play into it. (48:00) The human superpower: metacognition—our ability to think about thinking. (49:57) How mindfulness and a "meditative stance" help us use metacognition daily. (53:57) Why knowing your biases isn't enough—emotional regulation is the real challenge. (56:27) How to recognize triggers for deeper reflection and System 2 thinking. (1:00:34) How systems thinking and better questions can combat our reductionist tendencies. (1:05:57) Why our addiction to certainty fuels overconfidence and poor decisions. (1:08:43) How humility, probabilistic thinking, and skepticism can make us wiser investors and humans. (1:11:39) When to listen to emotions—and when to treat them as cognitive red flags. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Dan Bortolotti — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://ca.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310 Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)  

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• Episode 381: Investing 101

  In this special Investing 101 episode, the Rational Reminder hosts—Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Ben Wilson—team up to revisit the fundamental concepts that every investor should understand before diving deep into portfolio construction or market theory. Drawing from Ben's original "Investing 101" presentation and years of client experience, the trio lay out why investing matters, how inflation shapes your future, what stocks and bonds really represent, and why a disciplined, evidence-based approach beats prediction and luck every time. They unpack core ideas like financial independence, risk versus volatility, global diversification, and market efficiency, then connect them to practical tools like ETFs and Vanguard's asset allocation funds. Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:24) Why this episode revisits "Investing 101"—inspired by a listener still unsure how to begin. (0:05:03) Why investing matters: inflation erodes purchasing power, investing fights back. (0:06:33) The math of compounding: how a 7% return versus 2% changes your retirement entirely. (0:10:57) Saving early and often: habit formation beats late-life catch-up. (0:11:53) The trade-off between saving more and taking more investment risk. (0:14:04) Utility theory and the psychology of saving when young. (0:16:39) Marginal utility: when more money no longer adds happiness or purpose. (0:20:47) Stocks and bonds explained: ownership versus lending and the role of each. (0:23:11) The Japan story: a cautionary tale about chasing past winners. (0:26:49) Narrative investing: why investors love stories and get burned by them. (0:30:19) Market capitalization weighting—how global prices tell you what to own. (0:33:42) The stock market is not the economy: why news headlines mislead investors. (0:37:14) The power of diversification: why most individual stocks fail—and a few drive all returns. (0:41:56) Bonds, volatility, and inflation risk—why "safe" assets aren't risk-free. (0:44:41) Building your mix: matching volatility tolerance with long-term goals. (0:45:10) The behavioral challenge: risk is only useful if you can stay invested. (0:48:08) Active management as gambling: adding unrewarded noise to your portfolio. (0:51:43) The paradox of skill: why markets punish even brilliant active managers. (0:55:51) Efficient markets and Eugene Fama: the evidence that prices already reflect all information. (1:00:20) How small fees compound into big losses over decades. (1:03:07) The behavioral hurdle of indexing: trusting a system with "no one at the wheel." (1:04:54) The real value of financial advice: behavior, discipline, and holistic planning. (1:07:24) Implementing the plan: how asset allocation ETFs simplify everything. (1:11:41) Rebalancing and emotion: why automation protects investors from themselves. (1:14:24) Paying a bit more for simplicity: why 0.10% in fees can be worth it. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Dan Bortolotti — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://ca.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310 Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)  

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• Episode 380: John Y. Campbell - Fixing Personal Finance

  What if capitalism itself is confusing your personal finance decisions? In this week's episode, Harvard economist John Y. Campbell joins us to unpack his new book, Fixed: Why Personal Finance Is Broken and How to Make It Work for Everyone, co-authored with Tarun Ramadorai. John argues that the financial system—while essential—is failing ordinary people through complexity, hidden costs, and misplaced incentives. Drawing on decades of research in household finance, he explains why products are too expensive, advice too conflicted, and decisions too difficult, and how policy and design can fix it. Key Points From This Episode:   (0:04) Introduction – Rational Reminder's focus on sensible investing and decision-making. (1:46) Why Canadian finance feels broken: complexity, branding, and lack of competition. (4:53) Introducing John Y. Campbell and his new book Fixed. (5:43) The role of the financial system in everyday life: smoothing income, enabling investment, and managing risk. (7:14) The two main problems in modern finance—products are too complicated and too expensive. (9:17) Why financial decisions are so hard: our brains didn't evolve for math, and temptation bias wins. (11:36) How far financial literacy education really helps—and its limits for inequality. (14:26) The "corruption of capitalism": how capitalists exploit consumer confusion and misperceived value. (18:15) Cross-subsidies: how the mistakes of the poor often subsidize the wealthy. (21:05) Competition only works when consumers can compare price and quality. (22:15) Financial innovation—when technology helps vs. when it deceives. (24:24) Conflicts of interest in advice: why "trusted" advisors often don't act in clients' best interests. (26:26) Why loyal, long-term bank customers often get worse deals. (27:20) The illusion of opting out: why avoiding finance (or choosing crypto) is "jumping out of the frying pan into the fire." (30:24) The global emergency-savings problem—why volatility hits the poor hardest. (32:26) Is college worth it? Returns, costs, and who actually benefits. (35:47) How to think rationally about buying versus renting a home. (38:16) Housing in retirement—why reverse mortgages make sense but are misunderstood. (40:25) Mortgage mistakes: not shopping, not refinancing, and the racial gap that results. (44:41) Using utility theory to make better insurance and investment choices. (46:55) Principles for investing in stocks: participate, diversify, minimize fees, and ignore short-term noise. (48:24) How real investor behavior deviates from these principles—chasing returns and confusing investing with gambling. (51:17) Insurance mistakes: overinsuring small risks, underinsuring big ones. (54:11) How much to save for retirement—and how most people fall short. (55:40) Lifecycle investing: why target-date funds are good but could be better. (57:56) Why annuities make sense, and how better framing could make them more popular. (59:30) Technology's double edge: lower costs but higher temptation and discrimination. (1:02:17) Lessons from crypto: why stablecoins matter and what regulators should learn. (1:05:26) From nudge to shove: how governments should actively design simpler, safer products. (1:10:02) Where regulation goes too far—and why governments shouldn't run finance directly. (1:13:10) Priority areas for reform: retirement accounts, transaction accounts, and insurance. (1:14:49) The four design principles for a better system: simple, cheap, safe, easy. Links From Today's Episode:   Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.  Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

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