Contested Ground

Host Steve Kuper is joined by former navy logistician Dave Grosvenor and chair of the Gravity Group Steve Hayes for a wide-ranging discussion on Australia's sovereign capability, industrial resilience and the growing gap between strategic risk and national preparedness in this episode of the Contested Ground podcast.
The conversation opens with a blunt assessment of Australia's strategic vulnerability, with the argument that it is no longer theoretical but "empirically established" through a growing body of evidence. The panel examines what concrete indicators – ranging from supply chain fragility to operational dependence on external partners – most clearly demonstrate this exposure, and why existing frameworks such as the Defence Strategic Review did not go far enough in diagnosing the scale of the challenge.
A key theme is urgency. The guests argue that incremental reform and repeated reviews are insufficient, making a comprehensive national audit of sovereign capability essential now rather than later. They explore how wargaming outcomes and scenario analysis increasingly point to Australia's limited resilience in the face of prolonged disruption, particularly across critical supply chains and industrial dependencies.
The discussion then turns to the structural limits of market-driven solutions. The panel outlines how market failures, foreign subsidies and competing international industrial strategies distort outcomes for Australian industry. They also unpack the "theory of the second best" in practical policy terms, arguing that partial reforms in a distorted global system can sometimes worsen outcomes rather than improve them. The debate extends to the real-world cost of inaction, framed not just in economic terms but in strategic and operational risk.
Attention shifts to what a national audit would need to deliver, including whole-of-government visibility, cross-sector integration and measurable outcomes rather than another cyclical report. The guests stress the importance of avoiding bureaucratic capture and ensuring the process translates into actionable reform rather than analysis paralysis.
The conversation then explores the policy tools available to government, including long-term procurement, sovereign industry funds, and strategic industrial zones. Particular focus is given to the most under-utilised levers in Australia's current policy toolkit and the skills gaps that continue to undermine sovereign capability ambitions.
International comparisons feature prominently, with the Republic of Korea highlighted as the most relevant model for Australia. The panel discusses Korea's long-term policy consistency, export-driven industrial strategy and state-enabled industrial scaling while questioning how much of that approach is realistically transferable to the Australian context.
Institutional reform is another focal point, with discussion of proposals for a dedicated Ministry of Sovereign Industry. The guests examine how such an institution might interact with Defence, Treasury and industry departments, and whether Australia can maintain continuity of strategy across electoral cycles without a dedicated anchor for sovereign capability policy.
The episode also addresses public trust and communication challenges, emphasising the need for transparency in how sovereign risk is communicated to avoid unnecessary alarm while strengthening social cohesion and democratic engagement.
Finally, the panel considers implementation realities – what can be achieved within a single parliamentary term, how bipartisan consensus might be built, and the respective roles of states, territories and private capital in delivering large-scale industrial transformation.
In closing, the discussion returns to first principles: what motivated the push for a national audit, how lived experience in procurement and logistics shapes the analysis, and what success would look like for Australia if it meaningfully closes its sovereign capability gap over the next decade.
Enjoy the podcast,
The Contested Ground team

When Opposition Leader Angus Taylor announced a Coalition government would develop and implement a national security strategy, many shouted, "Finally!", but delivering a strategy that is fit for purpose is more political than most would think.
 
Since the release of the nation's first whole-of-nation national security strategy in 2013, successive Australian governments have sought to mask the nation's lack of preparedness with individual but isolated strategies from across government.
 
Championed tirelessly but ultimately unsuccessfully by the late Jim Molan, a national security strategy has often been viewed as solely the remit of a narrow clique of public policy professionals with access to security briefings and the levers of power.
 
But as host Steve Kuper and geostrategic analyst Marc Ablong unpack, a truly encompassing, whole-of-nation national security strategy presents immense opportunities not just for the nation but also for the political party that recognises the challenges we face need to be overcome.
 
This conversation comes at a time when political upheaval, atomisation and social cohesion continue to challenge established and insurgent political movements at home and across the broader Western world.
 
The pair discuss the immense opportunity for the political party that understands and develops a strategy incorporating a distinct and inescapable but seemingly forgotten factor: national security begins with the individual.
 
They discuss just what makes a "good" national security strategy in the modern context, the lessons Australia can learn from the Scandinavian nations, the United States and other like-minded countries that have recognised the challenges and opportunities presented by the return of multipolar, great power competition.
 
Finally, they discuss a question, only just starting to re-emerge in the public and political consciousness: "What sort of country do we want Australia to be?"
 
Enjoy the podcast, 
The Contested Ground team

When the leaders of the world's two major powers meet, the world stops to take notice and nowhere is this clearer than in the recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
There is no escaping the fact that the US–China relationship will be the defining factor of the 21st century, for good or for ill.
Join Contested Ground hosts, Steve Kuper and Major General (Ret'd) Dr Marcus Thompson, as they deep dive into the real-world ramifications and fallout following the meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
The pair discuss the shared US–China interest in preventing a renewed trade war and keeping the fragile trade truce intact.
Strategically, Taiwan remains the most sensitive and unresolved issue. Xi Jinping frames it as the central risk in the bilateral relationship and warns of the consequences of mismanagement, while Trump largely avoids escalation during formal engagements, later suggesting continued engagement on the issue without committing to a clear stance.
Across the wider strategic agenda, the pair cover discussions on military posture, technology restrictions, sanctions and third-party conflicts such as Ukraine, Iran and the Middle East.
The pair also discuss the state mutual preference to avoid escalation amid broader global instability, including energy security concerns and supply chain fragility.
Finally, they discuss Xi's messaging, which emphasises long-term great-power coexistence, multipolar stability and opposition to bloc confrontation. This presents China as a steady global actor advocating managed competition alongside the traditional Trump approach of more transactional realpolitik, centred on trade, investment flows and market stability, with an emphasis on maintaining flexibility and direct leader-to-leader communication.
Enjoy the podcast,
The Contested Ground team

Each and every day, the world is becoming more unpredictable, yet Australia continues with the post-Cold War status quo. As things continue to deteriorate, we're going to have to ask ourselves some particularly confronting questions.
Australia and its allies are entering an "age of chaos" in which the assumptions that shaped the post-Cold War order are rapidly breaking down.
Rather than dealing with isolated crises that can be managed and resolved individually, governments, militaries, and societies are now confronting overlapping and mutually reinforcing disruptions, including strategic competition, technological upheaval, economic fragmentation, supply chain vulnerability, and the rise of networked authoritarian powers.
Central to Australia's response is understanding the distinction between traditional "crisis management" and "chaos management". Crisis management assumes stability will eventually return and institutions can revert to previous norms once a disruption passes. Chaos management, by contrast, accepts that instability, uncertainty, and persistent competition are now enduring features of the strategic environment.
In this episode of the Contested Ground podcast, host Steve Kuper is joined by expert defence and security analyst and White House veteran Robbin Laird to discuss the impact of the emergence of the era of disruption.
This only becomes more important and pivotal as we grapple with the reality that the international system is no longer defined by uncontested Western dominance, nor is it returning to a simple Cold War-style bipolar structure.
Rather, the world is evolving into a fragmented and highly interconnected environment where economic dependency and geopolitical rivalry coexist simultaneously, particularly between the United States and China. This creates strategic complexity for middle powers such as Australia, whose decisions on defence, trade, industrial policy, and alliances will increasingly shape the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
Australia's response to this is recognising the growing importance of resilience and sovereign capability. The author argues that efficiency and globalisation can no longer be the sole priorities for democratic nations if they undermine strategic security. Supply chains, industrial capacity, digital infrastructure, and technological innovation are increasingly viewed as national security issues rather than purely economic considerations.
In this context, adaptability, redundancy, and the ability to rapidly regenerate capability are presented as critical determinants of national power. Ultimately, democratic nations must rethink how they approach leadership, preparedness, and strategy in a world defined by accelerating disruption.
Rather than attempting to restore an increasingly obsolete status quo, governments and institutions must develop the capacity to operate effectively amid prolonged uncertainty, while strengthening alliances, industrial resilience, and societal cohesion to navigate an increasingly contested global order.
Enjoy the podcast,
The Contested Ground Team

The release and messaging surrounding the 2026 National Defence Strategy and 2026 Integrated Investment Program is just the latest salvo in the government's effort to direct the national conversation about our national security.
With the government emphasising major increases in Defence spending over the next decade, the government is hoping that the headline figures and a lack of public understanding of Defence spending will be enough to convince the nation we're doing enough to protect our interests.
Hosts Phil Tarrant, Major General (Ret'd) Dr Marcus Thompson and Steve Kuper deep dive into the current battle for control of the narrative and the unfolding strategies being leveraged to target various Australian demographics, with specific examples in the economic domain as Australians face increasing inflation and fuel insecurity despite what they're being told.
The trio also unpack the latest announcements around the winds of change sweeping through the Department of Defence, with the recent appointments to chief of Defence, chief of Army and the appointment of the new secretary of Defence designed to emphasise the government's priority areas: national resilience and sovereignty.
Enjoy the podcast,
The Contested Ground team