Supply Chain Secrets

What will freight rates look like for the rest of 2026?
In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, the discussion moves beyond current spot rates to what the market is already pricing into the future.
From forward curves on key trades to the unfolding situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the episode explores how fuel costs, demand uncertainty, and capacity dynamics are shaping freight price expectations.
The key question: are current forecasts too conservative, or already balancing competing forces?
Topics covered:
 • Forward price expectations across Asia–US and Asia–Europe trades
 • How much of the expected increase is already explained by fuel surcharges
 • Why rates may face both upward pressure from costs and downward pressure from demand
 • What a “semi-permanent” disruption in Hormuz could mean for freight markets
 • How to think about planning in a market where the range of outcomes is widening

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has abruptly changed the tone of the ocean freight market.
In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets episode, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Peter Stallion of Clarksons to unpack what is happening right now and what it means for shippers, carriers, and NVOCCs navigating another wave of volatility.
Peter brings the perspective of one of the world’s largest shipping brokers and futures market participants, explaining how financial tools are beginning to complement traditional freight procurement strategies.
In this episode:
 • Why the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to container shipping
 • How fuel spikes and emergency surcharges are spreading across global trades
 • Why freight indices have not yet fully captured the market shock
 • What freight futures actually are and why adoption is accelerating
 • How procurement teams can use hedging as a complement to carrier relationships and market expertise
The big takeaway: volatility is no longer rare. The industry is beginning to develop tools designed to operate in it.

Back from TPM, the team dives into the biggest forces reshaping ocean shipping right now.
This week’s episode covers:
Demand data and a widening imbalance on Asia to Europe, plus what that means for headhaul pricing
How parcel and DTC trade lanes are shifting as brands rethink sourcing and resilience
The latest on IEEPA being ruled unlawful, what “refunds” might actually mean, and why the importer of record matters
Section 122 tariffs, the 150 day clock, and what comes next
The Strait of Hormuz disruption, end-of-voyage declarations, cargo being discharged at alternate ports, and the surge of emergency surcharges
Why some fuel surcharges risk being blunt, not trade-specific, and potentially duplicative for shippers already paying variable fuel mechanisms
How index-linked contracts and freight derivatives can help manage exposure when markets reprice fast

Recorded live during TPM26 in Long Beach, this episode breaks down the rapidly escalating situation involving Iran and what it means for ocean shipping immediately. Lars Jensen walks through the on-the-ground implications for the Strait of Hormuz and the ripple effects that can spread congestion and rate spikes far beyond the Middle East.

The team also explains why “Phantom GRIs” show up in quote-based indices, what that means for contract negotiations, and why transaction-based indices like NYFI can help separate market sentiment from what shippers actually pay.

Finally, NYSHEX CEO Gordon Downes joins to outline how index-linked contracts and hedging tools can help shippers and NVOCCs manage structural volatility, including practical first steps and how to get started.

This week’s Supply Chain Secrets focuses squarely on tariff volatility and what it means for global trade.
The Supreme Court overturns IEEPA tariffs. A new blanket tariff is introduced days later. Hundreds of commodity-level exemptions are published. Refund pathways remain unclear. The trade environment shifted dramatically within 72 hours.
Lars walks through what is actually in effect, what remains in place under Sections 301 and 232, and why the current policy landscape makes forward planning extraordinarily difficult.
Beyond tariffs, we cover:
Post Chinese New Year rate declines across the Pacific and Asia-Europe
Why Pacific spreads are tightening and what that signals about market certainty
Reliability reaching a six-year high
CMA-CGM’s apparent new Japan-to-North Europe service
What this means for TPM contract negotiations
If you are managing exposure, negotiating contracts, or trying to interpret conflicting market signals, this episode provides structured clarity in a chaotic week.