The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh

The military concept of escalation dominance posits that the side controlling the pace and pain of a conflict determines the outcome. For most of the Cold War era, the U.S. had escalation dominance—militarily, technologically, and economically—but the use of economic statecraft was limited. That era is over. As great power competition intensifies, the relationship between the U.S. and China offers a view into where competition is headed and what it means for global stability. While the U.S.-China summit resulted in an effective truce, there are deeper takeaways that investors and other observers should consider.
PGIM's Daleep Singh welcomes Julian Gewirtz, former Senior Director for China and Taiwan Affairs at the National Security Council, to discuss the U.S.-China stalemate and the economic long game. The conversation covers topics including:
Geopolitical and economic takeaways from the summit
China's efforts to buy time—and potential U.S. policy responses
Technological competition, including AI, chips and related minerals
Strategies aimed at achieving AI superiority in pursuit of national interests

Global conflicts are increasingly playing out in the economic arena, not just on the battlefield. The war in Iran represents a collision of both. Physical and financial chokepoints can be used for strategic leverage; they also raise potential vulnerabilities. To unpack how and why economic warfare is reshaping the macro landscape, Daleep Singh speaks with Edward Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare" and Senior Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations. 
The discussion explores how investors can evaluate resilience to economic vulnerabilities, the future of economic statecraft amid heightened geopolitical competition, and chokepoints that investors should be watching in the future.

Marc Sumerlin, Managing Partner at Evenflow Macro and former Deputy Director of the White House National Economic Council under President George W. Bush, joins Daleep Singh for a conversation about economic transformation on this episode of PGIM's The Outthinking Investor.
Daleep and Marc talk about macro shocks stemming from the Iran war, how U.S. budget deficits will influence policy rates and the economy, and the relationship between monetary and fiscal authorities in a new age of economic competition.  
The discussion also covers: 
The impact of tariffs and AI on the labor market
Monetary policy challenges when navigating an energy shock
The future of the U.S.-China trade relationship

Daleep welcomed Kurt for an in-depth look at the U.S.-China relationship and the Iran war's implications for Asia-Pacific. Speaking in front of a live audience, they also discussed how geopolitical shifts are reshaping economies, strategic leverage lurking in critical supply chains, and the outlook for Japan.

Daleep Singh catches up with Brad Setser, Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former senior adviser to the U.S. Trade Representative, to gather his perspectives on how entrenched imbalances are translating into strategic leverage between economic powers. They explore the world's financial plumbing, changes in trade and capital flows, and the implications for global markets. 

In this episode, Daleep and Brad also discuss: 

Why the world may be re-globalizing rather than deglobalizing 


China's export-driven economy 


The interplay between global trade and currency markets 


The future of U.S. trade in North America and Europe 


The outlook in Japan