Noise Cancelling with Neil Woodford

UK unemployment just hit a five-year high. But hidden in the data is a £1.3 trillion consumer story that the Bank of England, the MPC and consensus economics are completely ignoring. Here's why it matters if you invest in UK stocks.

In this episode, Neil Woodford — one of the most experienced fund managers in British investing history — breaks down why he believes UK consumer spending is about to inflect, what the savings ratio doubling to 10% really means, and why interest rate cuts from the Bank of England could trigger a recovery almost nobody is pricing in.

We cover the five domino chain reaction from rate cuts to stock prices, the biggest household deleveraging in modern UK economic history, the ONS measurement scandal that makes UK productivity look far worse than it actually is, and what all of this means for domestic-facing UK equities — from banks to housebuilders to retailers.

If you watched last week's episode on UK regulatory reform, this is the other half of the story. The plumbing is being fixed. The fuel is about to flow.

New episodes every week. Subscribe and hit the bell so you don't miss the next one.

🔗 LINKS
Neil's latest writing: https://www.woodfordviews.com
Last week's episode — UK Regulatory Reform: https://youtu.be/8UV3F3_ptr0?si=Z9-QqUuOKOruKv4N
Is It Time To Buy British?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhexIETWueU
Bank of England Monetary Policy Report: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2026/february-2026

This week, Google raised $32 billion in debt in under 24 hours — including a billion-pound, 100-year sterling bond that was nearly ten times oversubscribed. The main buyers? UK pension funds and insurance companies.

The same institutions that have almost entirely abandoned British equities are now queuing up to fund Google's AI ambitions for the next century. In the same week, the London Stock Exchange itself became an activist investor target, its shares down 35%, barely functioning as an exchange at all.

In this episode, Neil and Jon trace the three regulatory decisions over 25 years that systematically broke the UK equity market — from pension accounting rules that forced the biggest owners to sell, to MiFID 2 destroying the research ecosystem that kept smaller companies alive, to the Brexit confidence shock that drove international investors out.

The numbers are stark. UK pension funds owned 32% of the market in 1992. Today: 1.5%. London accounted for 18% of global IPOs at its peak. Today: effectively zero. The market has lost 44% of its listed companies. More money now leaves through dividends and buybacks than arrives through capital raising.

But here's where it gets interesting. Neil argues that this two-decade wrecking ball has created a generational valuation opportunity. UK equities trade at 10-11x earnings against a US market at 25x. The historical relationship between starting valuations and subsequent returns — which holds with 75% accuracy over 50 years — predicts low double-digit annual returns from the UK over the next decade. The same relationship predicts the S&P 500 delivers pretty much zero.

 

Neil's articles referenced in this episode:

🔗 A Quarter Century of Damaging Reforms

🔗 Can the UK Equity Market Recover?

▶️ Is Now the Right Time to Buy UK Stocks?

$1 trillion wiped from software stocks in weeks. If you own a global tracker, S&P 500, or pension fund, you're probably exposed—here's what you need to know about the AI selloff and what to do next.

In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down:

Why Claude and AI coding tools are crushing software valuations

How your pension is exposed to tech stocks (even if you never bought any)

The Bank of England's rate decision—and why Neil thinks they got it wrong

Bitcoin's 40% crash: buying opportunity or death spiral?

Where Neil sees value when the S&P 500 looks stretched

Ray Dalio warns the monetary order is breaking down. Gold hits all-time highs. ASML & SK Hynix post record earnings. This week on Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down what it means for your strategy.

We discuss whether the dollar is really dying, if gold and silver are in a bubble, and why the "picks and shovels" approach to AI investing is finally paying off. Plus: why UK equities remain dramatically undervalued, how to stress-test your investment strategy, and Warren Buffett's timeless advice on valuation.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. We're sharing how we think about markets. Always do your own research and consult a professional.

Neil Woodford predicted Trump's second year would be calmer. But in January alone, Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro has been captured, there's been talk of Greenland and Canada annexation, and Taiwan tensions continue to escalate – he was wrong. Yet his strategies still beat the market. What can we learn from Neil's way of thinking?

In this episode of Noise Cancelling, we dig into the psychology of being wrong as an investor, when to hold your nerve vs pivot your strategy, and what could actually happen to your portfolio if geopolitical tensions escalate further in 2026.

We cover:

Why Neil's geopolitical predictions didn't play out

The psychology of changing course vs staying the course

How to know when you're wrong vs just early

What happens if Trump actually moves on Greenland or Canada

Taiwan, TSMC and the semiconductor risk

Russia, Ukraine and the energy implications

Middle East scenarios and oil price impacts