Geopolitical Cousins

Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?
The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends up multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar. They also debate the odds of a US-China clash over Taiwan, and whether the nation-state can survive a coming showdown with the tech companies and billionaires who increasingly control critical infrastructure - including orbit.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Setup
(02:05) - Reunion at the Table
(03:11) - Episode Premise and Format
(04:22) - Zeihan on Deglobalization
(06:42) - Energy Shock Fallout
(08:52) - Demographics and Demand Crash
(11:03) - Deflation vs Inflation Debate
(16:25) - Drone Warfare Dark Turn
(18:21) - Semiconductors Reality Check
(27:27) - Marco Goes Nuclear
(30:10) - Russia Collapse Scenarios
(33:18) - Nukes Spread and Ukraine Endgame
(35:31) - Supply Chain Shockwaves
(36:34) - Putin Hell Bar Joke
(37:18) - Europe Expansion Debate
(39:26) - EU Becomes Military Union
(40:37) - Post Putin Chaos Risks
(43:08) - Russian Elite Succession
(44:27) - Civil War Nuclear Fear
(47:34) - China Fills The Vacuum
(52:26) - Taiwan Timeline Scenario
(53:59) - Drones Nukes And Invasion
(56:43) - Deterrence And Flashpoints
(01:03:34) - China Demographics Clash
(01:05:15) - Depopulation Not Disaster
(01:06:14) - Black Plague Lessons
(01:07:11) - Automation Versus Depopulation
(01:07:22) - Japan China Depopulation Debate
(01:09:31) - End of Nation State
(01:11:18) - Shocks and State Capacity
(01:12:04) - Broken World of More
(01:13:07) - Knowledge Networks Collapse
(01:14:31) - Affluence Feudalism Demand
(01:16:51) - Brittle AI Chip Supply
(01:21:39) - Ingenuity Gap Reversal
(01:23:34) - Rapid Fire Predictions
(01:35:47) - State Versus Tech Showdown
(01:40:24) - Wrap and Break
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Referenced in the Show:
https://zeihan.com/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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The cousins reconvene with the BCA brain trust - Juan Correa, Robert Tipper, and Jeremie Peloso - for the World Cup post-mortem. The model called all four semifinalists but missed champion Spain, so the crew litigates whether the winner's curse is dead, whether the GOAT variable was a methodological capitulation, and what Cape Verde, Norway, and Egypt say about the value of a center of gravity. Also on the docket: Trump's Balogun red-card intervention, the treatment of Iran's squad, a Paraguayan senator's meltdown, and why immigration keeps winning on the pitch.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Show Updates/Intro
(00:39) - World Cup Recap Setup
(02:02) - Guests And Agenda
(05:34) - How The Model Works
(11:21) - Winners Curse Debate
(15:39) - Messi GOAT Argument
(21:10) - Spain And Substitutions
(26:16) - Model Tweaks Next Time
(30:57) - World Cup Negatives
(39:34) - VAR And Tournament Fatigue
(43:25) - Substitution Rules Debate
(47:25) - Stadium Atmosphere Problems
(49:53) - Anthems Halftime Politics
(54:24) - What We Loved Most
(57:19) - America Production Spectacle
(01:01:12) - Drama Violence Ticket Culture
(01:09:34) - Soccer Narratives Magic
(01:12:23) - Geopolitics On The Pitch
(01:17:49) - Immigration Nation State
(01:21:31) - Wrap Up And Next Tournaments
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Referenced in the Show:
2026 BCA World Cup Forecast - https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Iran again. Yes, again :( nobody's thrilled, but that's the content. The cousins break down a week of tanker attacks, retaliations to retaliations, and a 20% toll that became "great investments" in 24 hours. Marko's pitch: stop forecasting oil prices and start using them - they're an input, not an output. Jacob pushes back on who actually wants what. Then Japan, where rising yields and a yen at 162 have the macro world whispering about the carry trade. Plus a super El Niño, and the World Cup - because apparently the whole planet is rooting for England now. Rare.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and agenda
(00:36) - Iran flare-up timeline
(03:28) - Why Iran escalates
(06:59) - Oil prices drive conflict
(20:24) - China signals and forecasts
(23:18) - War 2.0 and Hormuz limits
(28:46) - Rangebound Oil Equilibrium
(30:33) - Hormuz Alternatives Rising
(32:50) - Spiral Risk And CPI
(36:18) - Trump Thesis And Forecasts
(41:21) - World Cup Ref Drama
(47:03) - Japan Yields And Global Spillovers
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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Iran, Hormuz, another tanker on fire - sure, fine, but the real question is: what's actually driving the behavior here, and it's not the diplomacy everyone keeps quoting. Marko and Jacob argue it out: chokepoint tolls, the memorandum nobody trusts, oil prices doing more work than anyone wants to admit. Then Europe, because apparently that's still a thing - NATO's arms-deal theater, Le Pen's conviction, a French case nobody's making. And yes, the World Cup gets its forty minutes. It's a good one.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Episode Preview
(01:00) - World Cup vs World News
(02:03) - Hormuz Tanker Attacks
(03:07) - Oil Prices Drive Reality
(30:52) - Phony Russia Sanctions
(32:46) - Europe Rearms and Le Pen
(37:36) - Ukraine Stalemate and Crimea
(47:33) - World Cup Trump and FIFA
(01:02:20) - Birthright Soccer Paradox
(01:03:12) - Why World Cup Matters
(01:08:15) - American Grit on Pitch
(01:10:18) - Announcers and Fan Culture
(01:12:28) - Norway and Haaland Mythos
(01:13:36) - Trump FIFA and Nationalism
(01:16:30) - Sports as Peaceful Outlet
(01:23:30) - Predictions and Final Picks
(01:26:07) - Closing Love for World Cup
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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

It's the Book Episode!!! Marko and Jacob turn their usual geopolitical sparring into a book draft: eight titles each, no rules, no rankings, just the texts that actually built their analytical muscle <3 The cousin picks span philosophy, fiction, psychology, and history. Machiavelli's The Prince opens the list, followed by texts on Marxism, biography, social psychology, and intelligence tradecraft. Marko favors frameworks that discipline thinking; Jshap leans on fiction and history to capture how humans behave. Tune in to hear more :)
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Reading Habit
(01:06) - Heat Talk and Air Conditioning
(03:34) - Book Draft Setup
(04:54) - Machiavelli The Prince
(16:20) - Talmud and Contrarian Thinking
(23:14) - Marx Das Kapital
(43:33) - Analyst Biases Primer
(46:15) - Framework Over Rolodex
(50:03) - Weber Versus Marx
(53:53) - Power And Human Nature
(01:02:47) - Realism And Institutions
(01:12:48) - Haunting Endings And Paradigms
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Referenced in the Show:
The Prince — Niccolò Machiavelli (Marko Papic)
The Talmud — Jewish corpus of rabbinic commentary, no single author (Jacob Shapiro)
Das Kapital (Capital) — Karl Marx (Marko Papic)
All the King's Men — Robert Penn Warren (Jacob Shapiro)
The Person and the Situation — Lee Ross & Richard Nisbett (Marko Papic)
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis — Richards J. Heuer Jr. (Jacob Shapiro)
The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism — Max Weber (Marko Papic)
Master of the Senate (The Years of Lyndon Johnson series) — Robert Caro (Jacob Shapiro)
Lord of the Flies — William Golding (Marko Papic)
Politics Among Nations — Hans Morgenthau (Jacob Shapiro)
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics — John Mearsheimer (Marko Papic)
The Search for Modern China — Jonathan Spence (Jacob Shapiro)
Why Nations Fail — Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson (Marko Papic)
A Bend in the River — V.S. Naipaul (Jacob Shapiro)
The End: Hitler's Germany, 1944–45 — Ian Kershaw (Marko Papic)
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions — Thomas Kuhn (Jacob Shapiro)
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro