Geopolitical Cousins

It's the Book Episode!!! Marko and Jacob turn their usual geopolitical sparring into a book draft: eight titles each, no rules, no rankings, just the texts that actually built their analytical muscle <3 The cousin picks span philosophy, fiction, psychology, and history. Machiavelli's The Prince opens the list, followed by texts on Marxism, biography, social psychology, and intelligence tradecraft. Marko favors frameworks that discipline thinking; Jshap leans on fiction and history to capture how humans behave. Tune in to hear more :)
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Reading Habit
(01:06) - Heat Talk and Air Conditioning
(03:34) - Book Draft Setup
(04:54) - Machiavelli The Prince
(16:20) - Talmud and Contrarian Thinking
(23:14) - Marx Das Kapital
(43:33) - Analyst Biases Primer
(46:15) - Framework Over Rolodex
(50:03) - Weber Versus Marx
(53:53) - Power And Human Nature
(01:02:47) - Realism And Institutions
(01:12:48) - Haunting Endings And Paradigms
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Referenced in the Show:
The Prince — Niccolò Machiavelli (Marko Papic)
The Talmud — Jewish corpus of rabbinic commentary, no single author (Jacob Shapiro)
Das Kapital (Capital) — Karl Marx (Marko Papic)
All the King's Men — Robert Penn Warren (Jacob Shapiro)
The Person and the Situation — Lee Ross & Richard Nisbett (Marko Papic)
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis — Richards J. Heuer Jr. (Jacob Shapiro)
The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism — Max Weber (Marko Papic)
Master of the Senate (The Years of Lyndon Johnson series) — Robert Caro (Jacob Shapiro)
Lord of the Flies — William Golding (Marko Papic)
Politics Among Nations — Hans Morgenthau (Jacob Shapiro)
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics — John Mearsheimer (Marko Papic)
The Search for Modern China — Jonathan Spence (Jacob Shapiro)
Why Nations Fail — Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson (Marko Papic)
A Bend in the River — V.S. Naipaul (Jacob Shapiro)
The End: Hitler's Germany, 1944–45 — Ian Kershaw (Marko Papic)
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions — Thomas Kuhn (Jacob Shapiro)
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Drones aren't a technological revolution - they're a pain-tolerance equalizer, letting Ukraine strike refineries deep inside a country that never planned to defend them. Jacob and Marko trace the defender's-advantage pattern across 1948 Israel, Vietnam, and Nagorno-Karabakh, arguing offense rarely wins against a population fighting for its home. The long-term call: Ukraine emerges as the next South Korea, corruption and all, while Putin's 2022 claim that "there is no Ukraine" ages into one of history's great own-goals. There's a new Ukraine being born, and Putin is a founding father :)
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Show Updates Teasers
(00:28) - Shaggy Marco Check In
(01:42) - Reflecting Pool Absurdity
(04:14) - World Cup Surprise Hit
(08:59) - Buc ees America Vibes
(13:45) - Freedom Why Not
(17:45) - Private Beach Reality Check
(18:48) - Zelensky Propaganda Blitz
(20:47) - Crimea Air Defense Strain
(23:25) - Putin Weakness Pivot Talk
(29:24) - Russian Economy Under Hood
(34:03) - Drones War Revolution
(35:00) - Defense Industry Oligopoly
(36:11) - Putin Mobilization Tells All
(40:15) - Drones and Pain Tolerance
(45:52) - Counter Drone Arms Race
(46:48) - 1948 Israel and Supply Lines
(55:25) - Why Conquest Usually Fails
(59:21) - Esprit de Corps Matters
(01:02:50) - Azerbaijan Drone Blueprint
(01:04:00) - Ukraine Economic Miracle Bet
(01:07:28) - Putin Own Goal Finale
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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Cousins hits the road for its first-ever in-person episode, recorded at Matt Gertken's home in Taos, New Mexico! Jacob, Marko, and Matt dig into the brewing standoff between Anthropic and the US government over export controls on its Mythos AI model, then zoom out to ask whether AI marks a civilizational rupture on par with industrialization itself - pitting the state, corporations, and "free-for-all" chaos against each other for control. They pivot to the Iran-Israel-US "hate triangle," the Strait of Hormuz, and what a fragile peace means for Gulf states and China. They close out with hot takes on the Knicks' title run and the World Cup.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome to Taos IRL
(01:30) - House History and Taos Lore
(02:25) - War Returns and Pivot Myth
(03:15) - Anthropic vs US Crackdown
(06:57) - AI as New Means of Production
(10:44) - Kids Screens and Ideology
(13:39) - Can States Control AI
(16:35) - Dystopias State vs Corp
(23:20) - Western Messiness vs Rule of Law
(30:51) - Tech Barons and Backlash Politics
(33:45) - Data Centers and Populist Response
(35:37) - Bull Moose Antitrust Populism
(37:10) - China Infrastructure Social Fabric
(38:29) - Boom Bust Capex Cycles
(41:23) - Universities Under Pressure
(43:12) - How Campuses Handle AI
(46:32) - Elitism Versus Access
(50:19) - Iran Endgame Framework
(51:27) - Hormuz Kinetic Equilibrium
(56:34) - US Resolve And Deterrence
(59:13) - Who Wins Middle East
(01:07:54) - China As Stabilizer
(01:09:59) - China Bonds And Stagnation
(01:10:58) - No Rival No Resolve
(01:12:40) - Oil Reserves And Populism
(01:15:32) - China The Adult Debate
(01:16:36) - Empire Model And Global South
(01:21:11) -Will Power Corrupt China
(01:23:36) - NBA Finals And Ticket Madness
(01:27:09) - AI Makes Live Sports Pricier
(01:29:53) - Basketball As Geopolitics
(01:34:01) - World Cup Cohesion Forecast
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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

World Cup Time!!!!!!!
Robert Tipper and Juan Correa are our guests.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Secret Forecast Origins
(01:23) - Meet The Authors
(03:02) - Juan Football Roots
(07:41) - Marco World Cup Memories
(10:07) - Robert Germany Stories
(14:47) - Jacob 2014 Awakening
(19:06) - Why Soccer Is Hard
(21:50) - Inside The Model
(28:28) - What Doesnt Predict
(30:22) - Group Stage Surprises
(31:40) - Home Edge And Curse
(35:16) - Why Champions Collapse
(36:08) - Argentina Winner Curse
(37:37) - Group F Chaos Picks
(39:36) - Bracket Quarterfinals
(41:30) - Portugal Dark Horse
(43:30) - France Wins It All
(45:42) - France Identity Debate
(47:11) - Football And Immigration
(50:22) - Geopolitical Matches
(56:27) - USA 2010 Donovan Goal
(01:01:01) - Can Soccer Unite America
(01:03:37) - Building US Infrastructure
(01:09:30) - Closing Thoughts Farewell
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Referenced in the Show:
2026 BCA World Cup Forecast - https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging
(02:09) - Travel Grind and Vivid Dream
(04:23) - Tales From the Road Idea
(05:18) - Iran Deal or No Deal
(08:47) - Strait Tolls and Mixed Signals
(11:20) - Gas Prices and $250 Bill Bit
(13:59) - Communist Relics and Inflation Fears
(18:16) - Why Markets Hit Highs
(19:21) - Politics Versus Material Reality
(27:54) - AI Boom Meets K Economy
(32:15) - Fading Geopolitical Risk
(40:34) - Second Derivative Thinking
(47:02) - Savings Rate Double Click
(48:46) - Savings Rate Psychology
(51:09) - YOLO Trading Era
(53:57) - Savings Floor Risks
(55:46) - Summer Oil Squeeze
(56:57) - Sticky Inflation Drivers
(58:30) - Politics And The Fed
(01:00:15) - Markets And War Signals
(01:02:13) - Reflexivity In Geopolitics
(01:06:17) - Nihilism And Truth
(01:07:17) - Quick Hits USMCA Update
(01:12:12) - Moon Race Concerns
(01:15:35) - AI Data Centers In Space
(01:17:43) - World Cup Preview
(01:20:09) - Why World Cup Is Hard
(01:25:31) - Game Seven Predictions
(01:28:43) - LeBron Comparison Debate
(01:32:28) - Final Spurs Call
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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro