Geopolitical Cousins

AfD won 44% in Saxony-Anhalt, and the Twittersphere (x-sphere just doesn't hit, sorry) immediately projected Panzer divisions massing on the Polish border. Is AfD kinda scary right-wing populist? For sure. But every right-wing populist party in Europe has faced this same test over the last decade, and 17 out of 17 came to Jesus on the Euro once they had to actually govern. So is Germany becoming the Fourth Reich?? Unlikely. This is just what happens to a country where too much remains unsayable - about immigration, about Ukraine, about energy - and who fills that vacuum.
Also: Greek shippers, making a killing.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Cold Open and Timing
(00:29) - AfD Shock Headlines
(02:16) - Europe Media Myths
(05:12) - AfD Strategy and Taboos
(09:29) - EU Integration Is Settled
(12:21) - Not Nazis but Risks
(14:18) - East Germany Roots
(17:47) - Ukraine and Russia Realism
(21:05) - Coalitions and Overton Window
(23:58) - Migration and Integration Crunch
(32:26) - Long Trend Not Flash
(34:42) - East West Guilt Divide
(36:53) - Guilt Politics Backfire
(37:46) - Teaching History Without Dwelling
(39:34) - Sons And Fathers Debate
(41:07) - Statues And Memory Wars
(42:12) - Germany Flags And Expert Skepticism
(43:29) - Why Parliaments Tame Extremes
(45:05) - Let AfD Govern Locally
(45:47) - Houthis Strike And Oil Risks
(48:35) - Greek Shippers Beat Blockades
(53:01) - Supply Chains Adapt Over Time
(55:25) - Corporate Strategy In Gray Zones
(58:29) - Amoral Multipolar Lessons
(01:01:47) - Houthi Sponsorship Joke Break
(01:02:21) - Ballmer Kawhi And Uncle Dennis
(01:03:46) - Clippers Insecurity And Hubris
(01:09:43) - Jersey Retirements And Wrap Up
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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Rabies-infested beavers. Not an insult - a fiscal strategy. Canadians have stopped buying bourbon, started flying maple leaf flags in grocery stores, and ~ most importantly ~ handed Mark Carney the political cover to build infrastructure needed since the OG Trudeau. This week: why "size of the fight in the dog" beats a trade balance sheet, why 5% tariff coverage is somehow triggering a national identity crisis, and why America might be the Uncle Dennis of North America - took free money, overstayed the welcome, and is now shocked nobody wants him at Thanksgiving.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Housekeeping
(00:35) - Canada Episode Setup
(01:05) - Trade War Rupture
(02:25) - Why Tariffs Now
(04:18) - States at Risk
(05:38) - Carney Strikes Back
(06:40) - Risk Tolerance Matters
(08:29) - Canada Consumer Backlash
(10:20) - Carney Fiscal Space Plan
(12:20) - Infrastructure Reality Check
(15:26) - Quebec and Unity Messaging
(17:22) - Economic Pain and Polls
(20:49) - What Exports Really Are
(24:00) - China Veto Red Line
(27:01) - Maple 8 Pension Power
(29:12) - Canada Defense Mythbusting
(37:41) - Is America the Threat
(42:00) - Imperialism and History
(44:03) - WWII Alliance Origins
(44:42) - Peace Dividend Border
(46:03) - Risk Logic Defense Costs
(46:37) - Why Invasion Fails
(51:56) - Trade War Won't Work
(53:17) - Canada Already Concedes
(57:38) - Defense As Bargaining
(01:00:46) - Schoolyard Bully Moment
(01:06:13) - Canada EU Option
(01:10:44) - Peace Arch Warning
(01:12:13) - US Politics Fallout
(01:16:25) - Higher Price Later
(01:19:54) - Sports Metaphor Wrap
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Referenced in the Show:

--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Scott Bessent says he doesn't understand why oil prices are spiking. The guy standing between America and the River Styx is confused :) The cousins crack open a few cold ones this week and break down why the 30-year just hit a 20-year high - not debt, not deficits, just vibes. Atrocious ones. The lads cover the war in Iran, tweets about North Korea, and a bond market that's done playing along. Plus... are hyperscalers minting money or building the next great overbuild? And what does the Lakers sale have to do with any of this? Everything, obviously.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Beer And Banter
(01:02) - Treasury Buyback Shock
(04:15) - Why Yields Matter
(05:44) - Growth And Data Center Debt
(09:34) - War In Iran And Bad Vibes
(10:27) - Three Bond Selloffs Explained
(18:16) - Debt Deficits And AI Debate
(26:23) - China Models And AI Capex
(43:06) - Dollar Multipolarity Risks
(46:03) - Reserve Currency Reliability
(47:40) - South Korea Tweet Fallout
(48:48) - Pound vs Dollar Inertia
(51:57) - Trump 1 vs Trump 2
(54:04) - Iran War Limits Debate
(59:14) - Multipolar Reality Sets In
(01:01:56) - Backlash Against Data Centers
(01:05:10) - Why AI Fear Spreads
(01:11:26) - Populism and Tax Future
(01:19:39) - Lakers Sale Conspiracies
(01:22:34) - Private Equity in Sports
(01:25:52) - Closing Banter and Wrap
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Referenced in the Show:

--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

It's been a minute. Marko and Jacob are back after a long gap, and not much has changed: the Hormuz standoff drags on, the war in Ukraine grinds forward, and the stock market shrugged it all off. Marko argues freedom of navigation was always empire's marketing slogan. Jacob pushes back on why Israel keeps mattering more than his own theory allows. The cousins disagree about Russia's next move, but what's new?
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome Back Cousins!
(00:53) - Same Old Geopolitics
(01:43) - Hormuz Deal Rumors
(02:26) - Markets Ignore War
(03:34) - No Total War Thesis
(08:12) - Kinetic Activity Debate
(09:56) - Pipelines Undercut Iran
(13:45) - AI Bubble vs Oil Risk
(18:24) - Tolls and China Advantage
(22:44) - Freedom of Navigation Rant
(30:05) - Geography vs Technology
(36:54) - Pivot to Russia Ukraine
(39:07) - Wars Find Equilibrium
(41:04) - Ukraine War Normalized
(41:55) - Drones Hit Russia Home
43:46) - NATO Targets Warning
(45:08) - Black Sea Price Shock
(46:57) - Iran US New Equilibrium
(49:25) - Ukraine Breaks Stalemate
(52:35) - Putin Leverage Options
(55:48) - Spice Alliance Limits
(58:22) - Why West Hates Iran
(01:00:43) - Cold War Origins
(01:03:44) - Israel Alliance Reframed
(01:07:30) - Mandela Versus Arafat
(01:13:49) - Netanyahu Pulls Trump
(01:16:16) - Israel Utility Not Sympathy
(01:20:19) - Israel Should Deal Iran
(01:22:23) - Closing Thoughts
--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure.
Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their pieces as a Stratfor intern - for an unfiltered conversation about how they actually became geopolitical strategists. They trade formative-moment stories from Stratfor's early-2000s "golden age" (including the Egypt/Mubarak call that made Jacob's career), debate whether corporate America can ever hire real geopolitical talent, and each name the one book that shaped how they see the world - from World War Z to Aristotle to The Ingenuity Gap.
Along the way: George Friedman lore, the DC Comics-vs-Marvel theory of geopolitical shops, and a genuinely moving closing tribute to the mentor who built this whole coaching tree. Part reunion, part masterclass in how to think about the world - and part roast session.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome Back Round Two
(00:52) - Whiskey And Loose Format
(01:34) - Formative Stratfor Moments
(02:24) - Arab Spring Cred Test
(04:17) - Stratfor Coaching Tree
(07:50) - Pipeline After Cold War
(14:17) - Academia Versus Geopolitics
(17:14) - Analyst Craft And Courage
(20:22) - Chief Geopolitical Officer Debate
(22:55) - Training Gap And Time Horizons
(25:29) - Universities And MBA Reform
(27:39) - Ideology And Groupthink
(30:02) - Theory Versus Practice
(30:57) - Frameworks Beat Facts
(31:44) - Operationalizing Geopolitics
(34:24) - Training Pipelines and MBAs
(37:39) - Sector Specialists and Scale
(40:01) - Everyone a Geostrategist
(41:01) - Deglobalization in Fashion
(42:51) - Formative Books Roundtable
(51:07) - Great Men and Psychology
(54:21) - Empathetic Analysis Explained
(56:25) - Displacement and Perspective
(58:23) - Formative Experiences Teaser
(58:50) - Yugoslavia Falls Apart
(59:15) - Tito Memories and Disillusion
(59:58) - Conspiracies and Nihilism
(01:01:23) - Identity in the Balkans
(01:03:51) - Living With Uncertainty
(01:04:39) - Midwest Roots and Leaving Home
(01:06:18) - Can Places Change
(01:07:32) - America as Debate Laboratory
(01:10:22) - Learning to Write Analysis
(01:14:39) - Chip on Shoulder Mindset
(01:18:22) - Morality Versus Analysis
(01:21:12) - Breaking Intellectual Chains
(01:23:53) - Finding the Fulcrum Question
(01:24:43) - Final Words and Gratitude
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro