Geopolitical Cousins

Mailbag episode next week!!! This week - Elections. Everywhere. Everybody wants a strongman story but the strongmen keep losing and going home! Lula came back from behind against Flávio Bolsonaro. Israel turned out 77.7% of their entire voter base and still nobody has 61 seats. The US is about to do some real soul-searching, and Cousin Matt Gertken of BCA Research joins the cousinly love to call the Senate. My cousin in Christ, polls can't model turnout. And this year, turnout is angry.
Important Notes:
Serbia held a snap parliamentary election on October 25. The Student List, a slate of non-party experts assembled by the movement that formed after the November 2024 canopy collapse at Novi Sad's railway station, won a majority of the 250 seats. Aleksandar Vučić, who had stepped down as president in September to lead his party's campaign, conceded that night.
Brazil's runoff was the same day. Lula, who trailed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, Jair's son, in the first round, won about 51.7% to 48.3%. Flávio has disputed the result.
Israel voted on October 27. Turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 1999. Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats, the opposition around Gadi Eisenkot about 48 and the Arab parties 19, so no camp has the 61 it needs to govern.

Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro/Welcome
(01:03) - Serbia's students beat Vučić
(06:59) - Strongmen, autocrats and who leaves office
(13:14) - Brazil and the "strongman loser"
(30:33) - Israel: record turnout, no majority
(43:51) - Geopolitical QE and Israel's next decade
(51:46) - Where polls come from
(55:43) - Quick-fire Senate predictions
(01:07:28) - Final thoughts: the midterms and 2028
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Referenced in the Show:
Matt Gertken - https://www.bcaresearch.com/strategists/matt-gertken
Elections - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Look, France has had a riot in the streets every few years this century. Pensions in '95. The banlieues in 2005. Students in 2006, pensions again in 2010, the Yellow Vests, pensions again in 2023. In May '68 the president flew to Baden-Baden and nobody could find him. This is not the end of France, because it's the most French thing ever. Try: data centers eating the world's capital, energy eating paychecks, two wars nobody voted for. Something has to give.
Jacob thinks it's your grandmother's pension.
Marko thinks it's guns.

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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro/Welcome
(01:25) - The movies somebody should make
(17:09) - Geopolitical video games
(18:57) - Is this France's 1968?
(19:52) - A century of French protests
(25:45) - Giscard techno and the Le Pen scenario
(29:47) - Workers, AI and why geopolitics isn't a trade
(33:30) - It's energy, not AI
(38:54) - Elite overproduction
(44:30) - The big short
(53:08) - Who gets cut first
(59:40) - Iran, Ukraine and the wars of choice
(01:09:05) - Trump's tragic flaw

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Referenced in the Show:
GiscardPunk - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKhnDzRgsW8
--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Three hundred thousand tons of diesel (tons, not barrels) is what Trump says he extracted from Putin. The deal is easy to mock, but it’s worth understanding why it happened. Diesel is at record highs, and every European leader publicly condemning the move is privately relieved somebody finally told Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian refineries. What the 5D-chess crowd misses is simpler: Ukraine and Iran are now the same war, because diesel trades globally and two kinetic conflicts are squeezing the same supply. From there, the harder question- what comes after Trump? America still wins gold, but it needed a Cameroonian center to beat a team of pudgy Serbs. The games are tighter now.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(01:02) - Paris Market Fire
(02:27) - Trump Diesel Deal Readout
(03:55) - Energy War and Hormuz
(08:39) - Zelensky Leverage and Midterms
(21:14) - After Trump and Multipolarity
(37:53) - Limited Force Iran
(38:50) - Trump Strategy Document
(39:48) - Neocons Versus Deals
(42:24) - America Behind Curtain
(43:54) - Regime Change Values
(50:53) - After Trump Realism
(52:46) - Houthis Scenario Menu
(54:05) - Trump Houthi Deal
(56:58) - Regional Wildcards
(01:00:28) - Houthi Strategy Shift
(01:01:14) - US Reacts Not Leads
(01:02:16) - Voters And Israel Test
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Scott Bessent really said “trust the process.”
Bub, do you know the process? It's the Philadelphia 76ers deliberately being the worst team in basketball for half a decade. Pick a better sports metaphor. Anyway, here’s a conspiracy theory nobody on Wall Street will touch - - - - - The Fed isn’t hiking because of inflation - actual inflation is coming down. It’s hiking because economic agents have started expecting American incoherence as a permanent condition, and that’s the macroeconomic AIDS. They’re targeting oil prices. They’re targeting the war. Also: France might just be Illinois, and why Marine Le Pen in power is better for France than Marine Le Pen in opposition.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Show Intro
(00:31) - Hegseth Basketball Challenge
(02:09) - Trust the Process Joke
(07:25) - Bond Market Basics
(14:26) - Is the Economy Really Hot
(19:46) - Debt Service and Thin Ice
(25:54) - Fed Conspiracy Theory
(38:58) - Fed Tool Too Blunt
(39:37) - Inflation Hits Real Life
(40:13) - ECB vs Fed Mandates
(42:59) - Yield Curve Warning Signs
(45:32) - Gridlock and Market Risk
(46:59) - France Bonds and Le Pen
(01:16:06) - Middle East Shipping Shift
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Referenced in the Show:

--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

OpenAI burned $15 million in three days to beat Anthropic to a Millennium Prize problem. Nobody's quite sure whose work they trained on to do it. This week the cousins bring in their science cousin - physicist Dan Green, Marko's college roommate - to explain what AI is actually doing to math, and why the whole thing smells less like a real breakthrough and more like an elaborate flex.
And... when a company tells you that their product might end humanity, is that a warning or a pitch deck? Marko has thoughts. Plus: why the dangerous scenario isn't the robot, it's the idiot who trusts it.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome Back and Guest Intro
(00:48) - Meet Dan the Science Cousin
(04:24) - AI Solves Big Math Problems
(09:22) - Backlash and Research Ethics
(16:03) - What AI Means for Science
(21:47) - Who Pays for Discovery
(34:23) - Terminator Talk and Real Risks
(45:18) - Corporations vs Paperclip AI
(46:58) - Chatbot Intel Near Miss
(49:10) - Anti Expert Government Risk
(51:59) - Future Robots and Human Agency
(58:59) - AI as Godlike Branding
(01:03:03) - Nuclear Energy Lessons
(01:11:06) - Why AI Writing Feels Wrong
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Referenced in the Show:
Dan Green - https://drgreen.physics.ucsd.edu/
--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro