In the Loop AI

Last week, Anthropic's S-1 showed a company that was finally making money. Today's amended filing adds the third quarter, and that profit is gone: revenue jumped to nearly $17 billion, up 47% in three months, but Anthropic swung to a $567 million operating loss, and it disclosed $895 billion in compute and infrastructure commitments, about $70 billion of it due in the next 12 months. Ejaaz breaks down why: demand outran the compute Anthropic had booked, so it paid up for $5 billion of short-term compute to keep serving customers.
We also cover the $2 billion donation-matching charge, where the $895 billion is going (SpaceX, Google, Amazon, Broadcom and the neoclouds), whether Anthropic can pay for it, OpenAI's cut-down fundraise and the junk-rating worry, and the bull and bear case for the Anthropic IPO.
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Timestamps
00:00 Anthropic's Profit Is Gone
01:50 Catching Up on the S-1
04:28 The Q3 Numbers
05:24 Three Reasons for the Loss
06:54 The Restaurant Analogy
07:56 The $2 Billion Donation Match
09:19 The $895 Billion Bill
12:32 Where the Money Goes
14:18 Can Anthropic Pay for It?
16:38 Less Than 0.1% of Budgets
17:48 Is the IPO a Buy or a Sell?
22:14 Final Thoughts
#anthropic #claude #ipo #ai #stocks
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AI stocks just had a brutal week. Google lost more than $500 billion in market value, Amazon fell 12% after hours on its earnings, and Intel had its worst day since 1974, all while the biggest tech companies reported record cloud revenue and promised to spend even more on AI next year. So is this the dot-com bubble all over again? Ejaaz walks through how the selloff started, why search and the open web are cracking, and who is really paying for the AI buildout.
We also lay out the bear case (concentration, borrowing, VC-subsidized spending and the walls going up around Reddit and Amazon) and the bull case (real demand, cash-rich hyperscalers, labs with money in the bank, and what happened to the internet after 2000), and why this looks more like a correction than a collapse.
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Timestamps
00:00 Is the AI Bubble Popping?
00:55 Big Tech Doubles Down
02:14 How the Selloff Started
03:11 Three Signals From Earnings
04:07 Search Is Breaking
04:59 Reddit Builds a Wall
07:20 The Overbuild Question
09:00 Who's Paying for It
10:13 Walls Around the Web
10:54 Amazon Blocks Meta's Muse
12:34 The Bear Case
13:46 The Bull Case
17:23 The Internet Still Won
18:51 Final Thoughts
#ai #stocks #bubble #nvidia #google
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Google now has the number one AI model in the world. Gemini 4 Carbon tops the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index two weeks after Gemini 4 Argon, and Google Cloud revenue more than doubled to $30.7 billion. So why did Alphabet stock open down nearly 12%? Search, the business that pays for everything, grew just 12% and fell below half of Google's revenue for the first time as AI Mode answers more questions and earns less per query. Add a quiet change to how Google charges advertisers, the exits of Jeff Dean and Demis Hassabis, and a paper loss on SpaceX, and the market isn't buying the comeback. Ejaaz thinks it's wrong.
We also cover Genie 4, Google's new world model, which uses the cheaper Gemini 3.8 Flash as its planner; Microsoft offering buyouts to 60,000 employees, its own AI teams included; SK Hynix selling out its memory through 2029; and China's STAR 50 tech index falling more than 40% since June.
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Timestamps
00:00 Google Has the #1 AI Model
01:58 Gemini 4 Carbon
03:51 Earnings: Cloud Doubles
04:39 Why the Stock Fell 12%
05:13 Search Drops Below 50%
06:29 $200 Billion in Capex
07:27 Can You Trust the Benchmarks?
08:19 The Ad Auction Change
09:42 Ads in AI Chat
10:29 Google's TPU Customers
11:55 Jeff Dean and Demis Hassabis
12:42 The SpaceX Loss
13:23 Genie 4
16:03 Microsoft's 60,000 Buyouts
18:40 SK Hynix Sold Out Through 2029
19:41 China's Tech Stocks and Final Thoughts
#ai #google #gemini #stocks #earnings
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Anthropic just got hacked again, and this time we know who did it. Cathedral, a start-up founded by former DOGE staffers and co-founded by the Pentagon's former chief data officer, ran AI agents against Anthropic under its bug bounty program. The front door held for days; the way in was business software Anthropic buys from other companies, and it led to meeting transcripts, salaries and Slack messages about its advanced models. Anthropic says it took several days, not 12 hours, and that nothing came near its model weights. Its own red-team lead says we may need to reinvent security every year.

We also cover the Pentagon's feud with Anthropic, why Slack is where the AI labs keep their secrets, what last week's Black October has to do with it, and why older, cheaper models running 24/7 could put every company in the same spot.

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Timestamps
00:00 Anthropic Hacked Again
01:08 Who Is Cathedral?
02:03 Through the Back Door
02:58 The Slack Warning
03:36 Anthropic Pushes Back
04:19 The Pentagon Grudge
08:06 Underplaying the Breach
10:05 Reinvent Security Every Year
12:44 Castle Defense
15:06 Final Thoughts: Third Parties
16:52 Hackers That Never Sleep
17:43 Nationalizing the Labs?
18:25 China and Closing Thoughts

#ai #anthropic #cybersecurity #claude #hacking

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In the space of a week, three of the richest men in the world called the top of the AI trade. Elon Musk says debt markets have shut for anyone without real revenue outside AI data centers and that 200+ neoclouds face "guppy-level death." Citadel's Ken Griffin says there are "almost certainly bubbles." Chamath Palihapitiya says most AI spending is subsidized by venture capital. CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN are down more than 30% in a month. But each of them has a reason to say it, so Ejaaz digs into what's true, what's talking their book, and what investors should actually worry about.
We also cover GPUs collecting dust in Amazon's warehouses, the 11th-hour bank talks behind Anthropic's record debt deal, why data centers take so long to switch on, and the bull case hiding in Anthropic's S-1.
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Timestamps
00:00 Three Billionaires Call the Top
01:43 Chamath's Neocloud Warning
02:18 Elon Piles On
03:29 Where the AI Money Comes From
04:37 Neoclouds Take the Hit
05:29 GPUs Collecting Dust
07:20 Testing Chamath's Claims
10:17 The Debt Window Closes
14:10 Why Data Centers Take So Long
15:47 Where Elon Is Right
18:03 Where He's Talking His Book
19:40 The Bull Case
20:26 Final Thoughts
#ai #elonmusk #spacex #aibubble #stockmarket
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