"This Won't Last" with Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg

This is the fourth episode of This Won’t Last. The show is a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at Alleycorp, and Zach Weinberg at Operator Partners. This episode covers tech’s relationship with DC, entitlement spending, auto tariffs, the future of American politics, and more.

This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network. www.turpentine.co

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https://twitter.com/thiswontlast

https://twitter.com/rabois

https://twitter.com/loganbartlett

https://twitter.com/kevinryan

https://twitter.com/zachweinberg

https://twitter.com/Redpoint

https://twitter.com/turpentinemedia

Check out the Logan Bartlett Show:  https://www.youtube.com/@theloganbartlettshow 

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Timestamps: 

(00:00) Preview

(01:41) Go Knicks

(02:30) Pulse check: buyer's remorse?

(10:00) Fentanyl as a core focus

(16:11) Economic statecraft

(20:24) Pendulum swing for the Democrats?

(23:28) Energy prices and drilling policies

(29:43) Predictions on recession and midterm elections

(31:53) Market predictions

(32:50) Impact of tariffs, commitments, and tax cuts

(34:35) Debate on tax revenue and economic growth

(39:25) Entitlement spending and how to fix it

(42:05) How to get to 5% growth

(50:13) Trade, tariffs, and supply chains -- are we turning into Europe?

(56:00) Rare mineral supply

(59:00) China subsidizes the US consumers (like a tax cut)

(01:05:40) Tradecraft labor needs

(01:08:12) Wrap

This is the third episode of This Won’t Last. This episode covers Silicon Valley's unprecedented attendance at Trump's inauguration, tech's evolving stance on energy and regulation, and why America's economy struggles to achieve the growth rates it saw from 1950-2000.

The show is a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at AlleyCorp, and Zach Weinberg, biotech founder (Curie.Bio) and investor.  

This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network. www.turpentine.co
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𝕏 
⁠https://twitter.com/thiswontlast⁠
⁠https://twitter.com/rabois⁠
⁠https://twitter.com/loganbartlett⁠
⁠https://twitter.com/kevinryan⁠
⁠https://twitter.com/zachweinberg⁠
⁠https://twitter.com/Redpoint⁠
⁠https://twitter.com/turpentinemedia⁠
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:30) Keith’s bet with Nate Silver
(04:31) Why its actually easy to predict election results
(11:16) Trump’s character evolution
(15:03) US GDP growth wall
(16:31) Deportations in Trump’s presidency
(21:36) H1B debate
(23:50) Lessons for the Democrats from 2024 election
(29:14) Altman, Zuckerberg, Dara, and others donating to inauguration
(31:00) How Trump won over tech
(35:10) The energy independence agenda
(38:04) Keeping politics out of the workplace
(43:52) How quickly DEI & meritocracy discourse has changed
(46:10) Crime rates in New York
(54:37) Drug stores across the country
(55:45) Police response rates
(57:48) Keith’s anecdotes from his prosecutor days
(01:00:11) Insurance & California wildfires
(01:04:03) Market forces & regulation

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Recommended Podcast:
Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

This is the second episode of This Won’t Last. The show is a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at Alleycorp, and Zach Weinberg, biotech founder (Curie.Bio) and investor. This episode covers Khosla’s initial investment into OpenAI, runaway AI CapEx, long-term AI leaderboards, and regulatory implications in AI.

This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network.
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🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
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Subscribe on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
https://www.youtube.com/@theloganbartlettshow
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𝕏
https://x.com/thiswontlast
https://x.com/rabois
https://x.com/loganbartlett
https://x.com/kevinryan
https://x.com/zachweinberg
https://x.com/Redpoint
https://x.com/turpentinemedia

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
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Links:

OpenAI and Anthropic revenue data: https://www.tanayj.com/p/openai-and-anthropic-revenue-breakdown

Anthropic CEO on future $10B model: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dario-amodei

Hardware costs in Scaling AI: https://fortune.com/2024/04/04/ai-training-costs-how-much-is-too-much-openai-gpt-anthropic-microsoft/

Comparing Quality/Speed/Price of AI models: https://artificialanalysis.ai/

CA banning election deep fakes on social media: https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/17/californias-5-new-ai-laws-crack-down-on-election-deepfakes-and-actor-clones/

Life expectancy relative to spending in Healthcare: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy-vs-health-expenditure

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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:39) Show origins
(02:39) OpenAI funding, Khosla’s initial investment
(06:40) Talent shortage and power law engineers
(11:47) Engineer tenure at startups
(15:12) OpenAI metrics
(19:26) AI CapEx
(25:01) Zach’s Pixel vs iPhone
(25:36) OpenAI vs Perplexity and Google
(32:03) Safety concerns in AI
(40:38) Misinformation regulation
(46:38) Regulations in healthcare
(48:44) Gambling regulations
(58:49) Hidden downsides of regulations
(01:03:59) Individual responsibilities
(01:13:33) Closing

This is the debut episode of This Won’t Last, a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at Alleycorp, and Zach Weinberg, biotech founder (Curie.Bio) and investor. This episode covers Founder Mode, the state of VC fundraising, the potential for an unrealized gains tax, and Russia’s influence in Telegram.

This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

--
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
--
🎥 Subscribe on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
https://www.youtube.com/@theloganbartlettshow
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𝕏
https://x.com/thiswontlast
https://x.com/rabois
https://x.com/loganbartlett
https://x.com/kevinryan
https://x.com/zachweinberg
https://x.com/Redpoint
https://x.com/turpentinemedia
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Links:
Keith’s Recs:

High Output Management by Andy Grove

Keith Rabois’ lecture notes from 2013: "How to Operate" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fQHLK1aIBs

Tesla versus Edison: The Last Days of Night: A Novel by Graham Moore

Disruptive Innovation by Clayton M. Christensen

The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing by Michael J. Mauboussin

Kevin’s Recs: 

Dark Wire by Joseph Cox

Logan’s Recs:

On railroads: Engines That Move Markets by Alistair Nairn

Wired: “The Kremlin has entered your chat”

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(02:39) Kevin comes back from Burning Man
(04:20) Paul Graham’s Founder Mode 
(05:45) Founder mode intuitive for Keith, Pierre Lamond anecdote
(07:00) Keith’s response to kernel of Founder Mode, Andy Grove High Output Management
(08:28) What’s unique about Founder Mode?
(09:13) Manager vs. Founder
(12:57) Founder moral authority
(15:00) Investing in founder driven CEOs
(18:47) State of venture markets
(21:15) Driverless car future
(26:25) Revenue quality in AI valuations
(33:00) New technology disruptive or helpful for incumbents
(35:40) AI in Biotech
(38:44) AI impacting fund AUM
(42:30) AI as the transistor
(43:25) Hurdle to return AI CapEx
(44:30) Unrealized Capital Gains Tax
(47:27) Sweden’s tax vs Norway and corporation tax rates
(54:50) Medicare & Social Security, beneficial tax policies
(1:00:45) Misleading life expectancy stats
(1:02:15) Lina Khan, Antitrust effect on tech industry
(1:10:20) Perplexity shocking Google
(1:12:30) Pavel Durov and Russia’s Influence in Telegram
(1:16:45) Not using TikTok and Telegram, risk in capital in Chinese companies
(1:22:25) Closing
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Founders/CEOs/Execs of top companies can apply to join the Turpentine Network.