In the Company of Mavericks

In this episode, I talk to Doomberg following our last chat in early March, and he expands on his thoughts that the Iran War was a catastrophic error with significant strategic consequences for the World.
As usual, Doomberg doesn't hold back. China has entered the chat just as the UAE has exited OPEC, putting the instability among the Gulf countries and the broader Middle East into perspective.
Despite the demands of the AI hyperscalers, the world is fundamentally long on hydrocarbons, and what the events of the last 10 weeks have demonstrated is that the constraint on energy supply is political, not geological.
Brought to you by Progressive Equity & Finance Talking.

Seven tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz this week, against a pre-war baseline of 140. The world's most important oil choke point is running at 5% capacity. So why did the S&P 500 just post its best April since 2020?
Jeremy McKeown walks through the four stories driving markets right now: an energy shock, a bond market in revolt, a fracturing monetary order, and the deepest institutional crisis at the Fed in modern history, and the AI CapEx cycle holding it all together.
In this episode:
– Brent at $126, LNG up 61%, and Goldman's warning on non-linear price spikes – Why BlackRock says the 60/40 portfolio is broken – The UAE quits OPEC and asks the Fed for a dollar swap line — while quietly talking to Beijing – Saudi Arabia, the petrodollar, and the day the yuan settles oil – Four FOMC dissenters, the most since 1992, and Powell breaking 75 years of precedent – Kevin Warsh arrives on record wanting to cut into a supply shock – Coordinated hawkishness from the ECB, BoE, and BoJ — with the yen approaching 160 – The $670bn AI CapEx engine — bigger than Sweden's GDP — holding the tape up – Why Meta sold off 7% on a beat-and-raise – Picks and shovels vs. the hyperscalers: where the asymmetry sits now
Three things to watch: the Hormuz tanker count, the ECB on June 11th, and whether Tokyo defends the yen at 160.
A brief on a market climbing a wall of worry that gets taller every day.
For deeper analysis between episodes, subscribe to Jeremy's Substack, HyperNormalTimes.
Brought to you by Progressive Equity & partner: Finance Talking — capital markets and business finance training, trusted by Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell.
The views expressed are for information and entertainment only, not financial advice.

Shepherd Neame has been brewing beer on the same site in Faversham, Kent, since 1573. That's before Shakespeare. Before the King James Bible. Before anyone called a pub a pub. It has survived two World Wars, the Temperance Movement, the craft beer revolution, a very public family falling-out, and a pandemic that shut down every pub in Britain overnight.

Jonathan Neame is the fifth-generation CEO, a qualified barrister, a former management consultant, and a man who once swore he would never work for his father. He changed his mind. In this conversation, Jeremy McKeown talks to Jonathan about family governance and succession, the economics of the British pub, why three pubs are closing every day in the UK right now, and what the government could do tomorrow to stop it. They also get into the craft beer revolution, the bifurcation between London and rural pub markets, and what it means to run a nearly 500-year-old business on a site where James Watt installed his second-ever steam engine in 1789.

Jonathan's answer to why Shepherd Neame has survived while almost everyone else hasn't: they're not in the alcohol business. They're in the socialising business. Beer is just the best lubricant mankind has come up with in 7,000 years.

Guest: Jonathan Neame, CEO, Shepherd Neame
Sponsored by: Progressive Equity & Finance Talking

Brought to you by Progressive Equity and Finance Talking.
Schrödinger's Strait & The Gems Among The Rubble

Episode Summary: Dive into the absurdities of modern macro markets and the hidden value in UK equities in this episode of Mavericks. Host Jeremy McKeown brings together an investing "odd couple": Laurie Hulse, UK small-cap stock picker and manager of the Onward Opportunities Investment Trust, and The Shrub, a world-renowned meme trader, parody hedge fund manager, and macro commentator. Together, they explore how to navigate market volatility and uncover wealth-building strategies by blending bottom-up micro-cap stock picking with top-down macro analysis.
In This Episode, We Cover:
The Reality of Public Markets vs Private Equity: Laurie reflects on the 3-year anniversary of Onward Opportunities, its graduation from AIM to the LSE primary listing, and the brutal, honest "mark-to-market" nature of public markets. The guests contrast this with the "deferred reckoning" of private markets, discussing the potential market impact of massive private valuations and the looming SpaceX IPO.
The "Golden Age of Grift" & Market Absurdity: The Shrub explains his philosophy that "once you realise it's all nonsense, it starts to make sense". He breaks down why global markets ignore geopolitical crises—joking that as long as the S&P is above its 200-day moving average, even an asteroid strike is "priced in". He introduces the concept of "Schrödinger's Strait", where vital global shipping lanes are treated by the market as both open and closed simultaneously.
The Capital Cycle & The UK Discount: Discover why a decade-long slump in UK equities might be the perfect setup for massive returns. The Shrub outlines the "capital cycle," explaining that the longer an asset is ignored, the more explosive its eventual upcycle will be. They discuss "Klaus," the imaginary European pension fund manager, and why trillions in capital reshoring to Europe could trigger a massive rally for UK and European assets.
Gems Among the Rubble: Laurie shares real-world case studies of finding heavily discounted global businesses listed in the UK, including the highly successful acquisition of marine data business Windward and the podcasting platform Audioboom.
Exit Liquidity & Survival Strategies: The Mavericks discuss why investors must plan their exits before they buy, whether through takeovers, US dual-listings, or graduating to larger markets, especially when dealing with illiquid small-cap stocks.

Listen to the end for actionable takeaways on building portfolio resilience and surviving the "clown show" of modern markets.

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The ideas discussed may not align with your personal risk appetite. Please do your own research and take responsibility for your wealth decisions.

Enjoyed this episode? Subscribe to Jeremy’s Substack, Hyperormal Times, for non-obvious insights into how the world really works and the investment implications the financial press often misses.

Small Ships, Big Oceans, World on Fire

Ami Daniel on the Middle East energy shock, the death of cheap intelligence, and why the SaaS apocalypse is your opportunity

Ami Daniel, founder of maritime AI company Windward, returns to the pod with a front-row view of the Middle East energy shock — and a confession about the one big thing he got completely wrong about AI.

With US naval pressure tightening around Iranian ports and ships going dark in the Strait of Hormuz, Ami explains why this energy crisis has no quick fix: 20% of the world's oil and gas cannot simply be rerouted. He maps the geopolitical reshaping of the Middle East, why Israeli and UAE capital markets are telling a different story to the headlines, and why the Abraham Accord alliance may become the defining axis of the region for the next two decades.

Then the conversation shifts to AI and investing. Ami's big admission: he thought data would be commoditised and insight would be scarce. He had it exactly backwards. Insight is now effectively free — you can get PhD-level analysis on an API. Data is the scarce resource. That one inversion is eating the entire SaaS industry alive.

But Ami argues the SaaS collapse is a buying opportunity for patient investors — if you know what to look for. Proprietary data moats. High average order values. Strong net revenue retention. And it's also a good idea to look for wartime CEOs who have navigated real adversity before the good times arrived.

We also get into Windward's own journey — why leaving the London Stock Exchange wasn't a vote against the UK market, why he's now backing a company to list there, and what it means to steer a business through years of people thinking you're wrong.

Five takeaways:
The Middle East energy shock is structural — there is no easy fix
The region is being geopolitically reshaped, and capital markets are repricing it
Defensible data moats are the new scarce resource in an AI world
The SaaS collapse is a patient investor's opportunity
Back wartime CEOs — people who kept going when nobody believed in them

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Links mentioned in this episode:

Windward insights: https://insights.windward.ai
Ami Daniel on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amidaniel
Windward on X: @WindwardAI
Ami Daniel on X: @AmidanielOne
Orlando Bravo / Thoma Bravo—software is a buying opportunity (CNBC): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/tech-investor-orlando-bravo-software-ai.html
Ben Horowitz — Peacetime CEO / Wartime CEO: https://a16z.com/peacetime-ceo-wartime-ceo/
Previous episode with Ami (September 2024): https://substack.com/@jeremymckeown/p-148564789
HyperNormal Times: https://jeremymckeown.substack.com