In the Company of Mavericks

This week, the market told two stories and chose to believe the second. The first played out in the bond market. The second played out in technology.
In this episode we unpack why the vigilantes won the week and then stood down, how Andy Burnham was forced to recant his economic platform without a single vote being cast, what NVIDIA's parabolic demand means for the AI CapEx broadening across Asia, why three trillion dollars of imminent listings will reshape portfolio allocation, and why Kevin Warsh's swearing-in at the White House sets up June 16 as the most consequential FOMC meeting in years. We also examine the K-shaped consumer split exposed by Walmart, the structural Hormuz toll question Iran is quietly institutionalising with Oman, and the gap between Rachel Reeves' price-cap proposals and operating reality on the British high street.

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Primary: bond vigilantes, NVIDIA earnings, SpaceX IPO, Kevin Warsh Fed, AI CapEx, sovereign bond yields, 30-year Treasury, G7 finance ministers, Anthropic revenue, quantum computing CHIPS Act
Secondary: Jensen Huang parabolic demand, KOSPI rally, SK Hynix, Andy Burnham fiscal rules, Rachel Reeves price cap, FOMC minutes, Yardeni Buzz Lightyear, Citi Lekovich sentiment, Buffett ratio, Strait of Hormuz tolls, Iran Oman, Walmart K-shaped consumer, University of Michigan sentiment, IPO super cycle, OpenAI IPO
Long-tail / search: why did bond yields fall on hawkish Fed minutes, what does NVIDIA Q1 2026 earnings mean for AI cycle, SpaceX IPO valuation $2 trillion, Kevin Warsh Fed chair June FOMC, Iran Hormuz toll system explained, K-shaped economy retail earnings, three trillion IPO super cycle equity allocation

For the first time in 21 years, Nationwide Building Society members will see a genuine choice on their AGM ballot paper. Jeremy McKeown sits down with James Sherwin-Smith, fintech executive, former MasterCard senior leader, and Oliver Wyman strategist, who is standing as the first member-nominated candidate for the Nationwide board since 2005.
In this episode, James reveals what it actually takes to challenge the UK's largest building society: an FCA hearing, 350 hand-collected paper nomination forms, and a year-long battle over access to the member register. We explore why the Virgin Money acquisition went through without a member vote, why mutuals matter for everyone (not just their customers), and what every Nationwide member needs to know before ballots land in June ahead of the AGM on 15 July.
Whether you're a Nationwide member, a building society customer, or simply interested in corporate governance and financial democracy, this conversation exposes a quiet erosion of member rights and what one maverick is doing about it.
What You'll Learn
Why Nationwide's acquisition of Virgin Money never went to a member vote — and what it revealed about the society's governance
How the "quick vote" box on Nationwide's ballot steers c. 85% of votes straight to the board's recommendation
The story behind James's FCA hearing (the first in 30 years) and his statutory fight for access to the member register
Why the bar for member nominations was raised five times higher in 2000 — and what that means for democracy in mutuals
How a strong mutual sector keeps the wider banking market honest (and why mutuals didn't need bailing out in 2008)
Why virtual-only AGMs are bad for member accountability
The difference between member ownership in theory and in practice at a £300bn institution
What every Nationwide member should do when their ballot arrives in June

Links & Resources
James's campaign website: james4nationwide.co.uk
Connect with James on LinkedIn
Jeremy on Substack: Hypernormal Times
Email Jeremy: [email protected]
Sponsor: Progressive Equity
Training partner: Finance Talking

Nationwide Building Society, Nationwide AGM 2026, James Sherwin Smith, member-nominated director, building society governance, Virgin Money acquisition, UK mutuals, mutual building society, corporate governance, FCA, financial democracy, member voting rights, Nationwide ballot, quick vote, cooperative banking, retail banking UK, Jeremy McKeown, In the Company of Mavericks

Markets at all-time highs. A closed strait. The hottest inflation prints in years. The UK government is hanging by a thread. A US-China summit that resolved precisely nothing. We ask the only question that matters right now: how long can you keep running on empty?
This week's episode covers six themes that are all pointing in the same direction.

What We Cover
1. The Global Equity Market Paradox
The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index are at or near all-time highs. Oil is at $107. PPI is at a three-year high. The TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) has been embarrassingly profitable — but a new Tex-Mex metaphor has entered the chat: NACHO. Not Any Chance Hormuz Opens. Michael Green warns the equity bid is structural, not rational — and when that unwinds, there are no conventional warning signs.
2. Oil Inventory Maths — The Runway Is Running Out
The IEA reports global stockpiles fell 250 million barrels in March and April alone. JP Morgan's note — The Illusion of Plenty — puts OECD inventories at operational stress levels by early June and operational floor levels by September. Capital Economics sees $130–$140/barrel as the base case if Hormuz stays shut. And even a reopening tomorrow can't fix things fast enough — mine clearance, vessel redeployment, infrastructure repair: minimum two to three months.
The canary in the coal mine turned out to be in Havana. Cuba ran out of fuel entirely. The energy minister's quote: "We have absolutely no fuel oil. We have absolutely no diesel." That's the Hormuz crisis on a human scale.
3. Inflation is No Longer Just About Energy
US CPI: 3.8% year-on-year. PPI: 6%, the highest since December 2022. Truck freight costs up 8.1% — the biggest jump since 2009. Services inflation up 1.2% in a single month. Real average hourly earnings have turned negative for the first time since April 2023. The Bank of England's Megan Greene: "Inflation risks are entirely on the upside." The second-round effects are now landing. Global bond yields are at one-year highs.
4. Kevin Warsh's Impossible New Job
Confirmed 54–45 — the narrowest Senate margin since Fed chair confirmation became required in 1977. For context: Powell got 84, Yellen got 56. Warsh scraped through. On his first day as chair-elect, PPI printed at 6%. CME FedWatch now prices a 30% chance of a rate hike by year-end. His first FOMC meeting: June 16th. It may be the most consequential since Volcker walked in on August 14th, 1979. We know how that one ended.
5. The UK: Where the Bond Market Is the Government
Labour lost nearly 1,500 council seats. Reform took 1,451 of them. Gordon Brown turned up — and when Gordon Brown is the answer, someone is asking the wrong question. Wes Streeting walked into Downing Street. 94 MPs publicly called for Starmer to go. Andy Burnham booked his return ticket. The pound had its worst week since November 2024. The 30-year gilt sits near 5.7% — above every developed world peer. Bloomberg Economics estimates the May yield move alone adds £2 billion to the UK debt interest bill. Gilt traders are underweight. The market is now pricing the worst-case scenario for bonds — and Andy Burnham is it.
6. The Summit That Resolved Nothing
YMCA played at the state banquet. Xi promised Trump rose seeds. Jensen Huang boarded Air Force One in Alaska. Boeing was promised 200 jets — the market expected 500; Boeing fell 4%. Xi made clear Taiwan is the most important issue in US-China relations and that independence is "fundamentally incompatible with peace." Trump didn't answer when asked about it. The $14 billion arms package for Taipei remains unsigned. China called the Iran conflict one that "should never have happened" — diplomatic code for neutrality, unless major concessions materialise elsewhere. Like Taiwan, perhaps.
As Gerard Baker put it in The Times, this is the first time in nearly a century that an American president met another power's leader on equal terms. Trump came seeking help, not making demands.

The Bottom Line
Inflation has moved beyond energy into services and freight. The UK bond market is delivering daily verdicts on a government in freefall. Oil inventory maths has weeks of runway left. The summit didn't deliver on Iran. Hormuz is being normalised under Iranian control — not reopened. Equities are at records. Something is going to break. The question is what, when, and whether Kevin Warsh has any idea what's walking toward him on June 16th.
Jackson Browne told us in 1977: "I'm running on empty, and I'm running blind."

People & Institutions Referenced
Michael Green · Michael Burry · Jensen Huang · Kevin Warsh · Paul Volcker · Keir Starmer · Andy Burnham · Wes Streeting · Angela Rayner · Gordon Brown · Kemi Badenoch · Nigel Farage · Megan Greene (Bank of England) · Jim Lee (EIU) · Gerard Baker · Donald Trump · Xi Jinping · Saudi Aramco CEO · JP Morgan · IEA · Capital Economics · CME FedWatch · TD Securities · Morgan Stanley · Bloomberg Economics

Sponsor
Finance Talking — specialist financial training for capital markets, business finance, and communications. Clients include Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell. Virtual, in-person, and e-learning options available. Please tell them Jeremy sent you.
Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Keywords
oil price crisis · Strait of Hormuz · US inflation CPI PPI 2025 · Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve · UK gilt crisis · UK Labour leadership crisis · Andy Burnham · Trump Xi summit Beijing · equity market all-time highs · TACO trade NACHO trade · Michael Green passive investing · oil inventory IEA · Jackson Browne running on empty · macro investing podcast · active investor podcast · capital markets 2025

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In the Company of Mavericks — helping serious active investors navigate market volatility, protect capital, and find new ways to grow wealth in radically uncertain times.
⚠️ Nothing in this episode constitutes investment advice. For information and entertainment only. You are responsible for your own financial decisions.

In this episode of In The Company of Mavericks, we tackle the most requested topic since the podcast launched: the fundamentals of money and investing, and how to introduce these vital concepts to children, grandchildren, and the next generation.
Host Jeremy McKeown is joined by Andy Craig, founder of Plain English Finance and author of the bestselling book How to Own the World, alongside Josh Sandford, investment director at Dowgate Wealth, with two decades of experience guiding clients through market cycles.
Whether you're a beginner investor, a parent wanting to teach your kids about money, or a seasoned investor revisiting first principles, this conversation delivers actionable insights on building long-term wealth, navigating volatility, and avoiding the most common investing mistakes.
Episode Sponsor: Finance Talking
Finance Talking provides specialist financial training around capital markets, business finance, and communications, with virtual, in-person, and low-cost e-learning courses. Their clients include Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell. Mention Jeremy when you get in touch.
Visit Jeremy's Substack: HyperNormalTimes.
What You'll Learn in This Episode
Why UK financial literacy lags behind international peers, and the £20 trillion opportunity cost
The crucial difference between investing and trading (and why conflating them destroys wealth)
How compound interest truly works, and why 60% of UK adults don't understand it
The main asset classes every investor should know: cash, bonds, equities, property, commodities, and precious metals
Why asset allocation matters more than stock picking
The "100 minus your age" rule (and why it should now be 120 minus your age)
How to stay the course during market volatility and drawdowns
The truth about inflation, monetary debasement, and why nominal returns mislead
Gold, silver, and Bitcoin as inflation hedges
The rise of passive investing and its structural risks for capital markets
Whether AI infrastructure spending signals a bubble or a cycle
How to think about buying property versus renting and investing
Why time is the young investor's greatest asset

Key Takeaways
1. Financial literacy is a silver bullet. Understanding how money and investing work dramatically increases your chances of building wealth over a lifetime.
2. Investing is not trading. Investing harnesses real economic growth and human progress. Trading is largely a zero-sum game where 78–80% of retail participants lose money.
3. Time is your greatest asset. Get rich slowly. £5,000 invested in a Junior ISA at birth, compounded at 10%, becomes £945,000 by retirement.
4. Know the asset classes. Cash, bonds, equities, property, commodities, and precious metals each play a different role in a balanced portfolio.
5. Asset allocation beats stock picking. Use the "120 minus your age" heuristic to balance defensive and aggressive holdings.
6. Risk is not just volatility. The risk of doing nothing — sitting in cash and losing purchasing power to inflation — is often greater.
7. Think in real terms, not nominal. Monetary debasement is the real story behind asset price inflation.
8. Ignore the noise. The average equity investor underperforms the market by about 700 basis points because they react to news. Main Street is not Wall Street.
9. Property: think in decades. Don't fall for FOMO. Compare rental yields, salary multiples, and opportunity costs before buying.
10. Stay the course. Pound-cost average, diversify, and let compounding do the heavy lifting.
About the Guests
Andy Craig is the founder of Plain English Finance and author of How to Own the World, one of the UK's most popular personal finance books. After a 25-year career in the City, Andy now dedicates his work to improving financial literacy across the UK. Find him at plainenglishfinance.
Josh Sandford is investment director at Dowgate Wealth with over 20 years of experience managing discretionary portfolios for high-net-worth individuals and pension funds.
Books Mentioned in This Episode
How to Own the World — Andy Craig
The Psychology of Money — Morgan Housel
Rich Dad Poor Dad — Robert Kiyosaki
The Ascent of Money — Niall Ferguson
Money: A Story of Humanity — David McWilliams
Broken Money — Lyn Alden
The Secret History of Gold — Dominic Frisby
Simple but Not Easy — Richard Oldfield

Keywords: financial literacy UK, how to start investing, investing for beginners, compound interest, asset allocation, ISA vs pension, passive investing risks, gold as inflation hedge, Bitcoin investing, teaching kids about money, Andy Craig How to Own the World, Plain English Finance, Galgate Wealth, Josh Sandford, Jeremy McEwen, In The Company of Mavericks podcast, UK personal finance, monetary debasement, real returns, S&P 500 ETF, generational wealth, stocks and shares ISA, get rich slowly, investing vs trading

In this episode, I talk to Doomberg following our last chat in early March, and he expands on his thoughts that the Iran War was a catastrophic error with significant strategic consequences for the World.
As usual, Doomberg doesn't hold back. China has entered the chat just as the UAE has exited OPEC, putting the instability among the Gulf countries and the broader Middle East into perspective.
Despite the demands of the AI hyperscalers, the world is fundamentally long on hydrocarbons, and what the events of the last 10 weeks have demonstrated is that the constraint on energy supply is political, not geological.
Brought to you by Progressive Equity & Finance Talking.